Originally Posted by 3dprojector
IHS is forecasting fewer than 1000 MicroLEDs sold through 2020: https://www.microled-info.com/ihs-mi...ion-units-2026
"Shipments in 2019-2020 will be virtually nono-existance (less than 1,000 units, in fact), but the new emerging display technology will find markets in wearables, TVs, AR and also smartphones."
Their MicroLED forecast lumps together small (relatively) inexpensive silicon-based MicroLED displays with large tile-based MicroLED displays for TV, so who knows whether the ~400,000 unit forecast they have for 2021 makes any sense or not (but if so, I'm predicting a small fraction of that volume is TVs).
I definitely agree with their conclusion:
"Micro-LED will continue to carry a high price premium compared to LCD and also OLED displays, but the high brightness and low power consumption will make MicroLEDs attractive for microdisplays and ultra-large displays.
The price of a 1.5" Micro-LED display will fall to one tenth of the current 2019 cost by 2026, and a 75" panel will fall to one-fifth of its current cost."
1.5" MicroLED displays (silicon wafer-based) very possibly will fall to 1/10th of today's cost, meaning they'll be quite inexpensive and to the extent the AR market is significant by 2026, a large volume of 1.5" MicroLED displays will probably be sold.
And the cost of 75" tile-based MicroLED displays very likely will also drop to 1/5th of the first generation Samsung should be introducing this year. So let's see, if this first 75" is priced at $50K we very well may see 75" MicroLED displays priced at $10K by 2026.
By then, 98" 8K rollable WOLEDs will probably be costing under $10K as well, so I have trouble getting excited about the prospect of 75" MicroLED TVs approaching the low 5-digits 7 years from now....
Since the beginning, the fact that the MicroLED display market combines both ultra-small silicon-wafer-based displays for appkications like AR with wall-sized tile-based displays based on a completely different assembly technology (and costs) has made zero sense to me.
MicroLED displays for A/R and jumbotron 2.0 displays, I'm a believer.
MicroLED displays for consumer TVs at any meaningful volume of the Premium TV segment (meaning close to WOLED TV volumes), I remain a huge skeptic.