Originally Posted by Menarini
Lately on social media sites (reddit, quora..) i see some people saying they cant wait for samsung's announcement on their quantum dot oled. Realistically is there a chance of samsung making this announcement at ces 2020 or the year after?
The first announcement you are likely to see is Samsung announcing when they have actually made a decision to commit to the entire QD-OLED production initiative (a decision expected within the next two weeks): https://www.oled-info.com/samsung-di...ent-plan-april
Assuming Samsung does commit to the program and goes ball-to-the-walls from that point forward, is a demonstration at CES 2020 possibe? Perhaps, but it will be an R&D prototype only and there won't be any actual product released in 2020.
Is product in Best Buy showrooms before the end of 2021 a possibility? Perhaps (Samsung is a large company with deep pockets), but a spring 2022 release schedule is a much safer bet as far as a best-case scenario (assuming no glitches emerge along the path to production)...
One of the major issues giving Samsung pause is the hoped-for production cost benefits versus WOLED - making major investments in a new product class which outperforms the dominant technology and is cheaper to produce is a pretty easy decision (and exactly the decision LG Display made in 2012 when they were competing for Premium TV share against QD FALD LED-LCD).
The initial less-expensive form of QD-BOLED will not deliver the performance needed to compete against WOLED and the newer, higher-performing varient will compete on performance but will alo essentially be the same cost to produce (once at equal volumes, and LG Display now has a huuuge headstart).
When the first WOLEDs came out (and production volumes were very low, meaning higher cost), they outperformed everything in the marketplace so LG could sell to early adopters at a very high price and not lose their shirt while they then increased manufacturing volumes to lower costs to sell to the next tier of videophiles.
Now that we are on the cusp of $1000 55" WOLEDs and $2000 65" WOLEDs and (eventually) $3000 75/77" WOLEDs, Samsung is going to have a much tougher time in the early going of QD-BOLED.
If performance is similar, they will have to sell at a similar cost (who is goig to pay much more for somethings that essentially performs at par?). Since early production volumes will be very low, production costs will be much higher than WOLED, so Samsung will be losing a significant anount of money on each early QD-BOLED TV they produce and sell.
On top of that, LGD continues to lower WOLED panel costs so Samsung will be trying to catch a falling knife.
All of that investment when you know
you have fundamentally lower manufacturing costs and will eventually wipe out your entrenched competitor by profitably undercutting them on price is one thing (and essentially an exercise in risk-assessment and financial planning).
But when that fundamental advantage in production cost comes onto question (as it has), it becomes a much tougher decision.
The competing camp in Samsung would rather plow those billions of dollars of investments into scaling up MicroLED production and Samsng can't afford to do both (if either initiative even makes sense).
So we should learn what the conpany decides to do soon...