Any chance of samsung releasing quantum dot oled in a year or two ? (just a ques.) - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1 of 7 Old 04-15-2019, 10:11 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Any chance of samsung releasing quantum dot oled in a year or two ? (just a ques.)

Lately on social media sites (reddit, quora..) i see some people saying they cant wait for samsung's announcement on their quantum dot oled. Realistically is there a chance of samsung making this announcement at ces 2020 or the year after?
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post #2 of 7 Old 04-15-2019, 11:00 AM
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Lately on social media sites (reddit, quora..) i see some people saying they cant wait for samsung's announcement on their quantum dot oled. Realistically is there a chance of samsung making this announcement at ces 2020 or the year after?
The first announcement you are likely to see is Samsung announcing when they have actually made a decision to commit to the entire QD-OLED production initiative (a decision expected within the next two weeks): https://www.oled-info.com/samsung-di...ent-plan-april

Assuming Samsung does commit to the program and goes ball-to-the-walls from that point forward, is a demonstration at CES 2020 possibe? Perhaps, but it will be an R&D prototype only and there won't be any actual product released in 2020.

Is product in Best Buy showrooms before the end of 2021 a possibility? Perhaps (Samsung is a large company with deep pockets), but a spring 2022 release schedule is a much safer bet as far as a best-case scenario (assuming no glitches emerge along the path to production)...

One of the major issues giving Samsung pause is the hoped-for production cost benefits versus WOLED - making major investments in a new product class which outperforms the dominant technology and is cheaper to produce is a pretty easy decision (and exactly the decision LG Display made in 2012 when they were competing for Premium TV share against QD FALD LED-LCD).

The initial less-expensive form of QD-BOLED will not deliver the performance needed to compete against WOLED and the newer, higher-performing varient will compete on performance but will alo essentially be the same cost to produce (once at equal volumes, and LG Display now has a huuuge headstart).

When the first WOLEDs came out (and production volumes were very low, meaning higher cost), they outperformed everything in the marketplace so LG could sell to early adopters at a very high price and not lose their shirt while they then increased manufacturing volumes to lower costs to sell to the next tier of videophiles.

Now that we are on the cusp of $1000 55" WOLEDs and $2000 65" WOLEDs and (eventually) $3000 75/77" WOLEDs, Samsung is going to have a much tougher time in the early going of QD-BOLED.

If performance is similar, they will have to sell at a similar cost (who is goig to pay much more for somethings that essentially performs at par?). Since early production volumes will be very low, production costs will be much higher than WOLED, so Samsung will be losing a significant anount of money on each early QD-BOLED TV they produce and sell.

On top of that, LGD continues to lower WOLED panel costs so Samsung will be trying to catch a falling knife.

All of that investment when you know you have fundamentally lower manufacturing costs and will eventually wipe out your entrenched competitor by profitably undercutting them on price is one thing (and essentially an exercise in risk-assessment and financial planning).

But when that fundamental advantage in production cost comes onto question (as it has), it becomes a much tougher decision.

The competing camp in Samsung would rather plow those billions of dollars of investments into scaling up MicroLED production and Samsng can't afford to do both (if either initiative even makes sense).

So we should learn what the conpany decides to do soon...
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post #3 of 7 Old 04-15-2019, 11:12 AM
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And here is more info on the technical hiccup and the internal debate: https://www.oled-a.org/samsung-elect...on_021819.html

"The two fluorescent blue layers may not provide sufficient luminance and lifetime, when considering the demands of HDR, so it appears that three blue layers will be required with the additional required common layers.

The QDs do not absorb and convert all of the blue light, leaving a distorted color if it is not corrected. SDC R&D has chosen to use a color filter to eliminate the problem, but the color filter absorbs ~40%-50% of the light, which might be the source of the third blue layer.

Samsung Visual is lobbying SEC management to invest more in micro LEDs and believe that future cost reductions, e.g. the reduction in the size of the LED from its existing 30x50 μm to ~5x5 μm, would make the product competitive in the consumer market and provide higher luminance, lower power consumption and eliminate image sticking of OLED based TVs. SDC countered with lower fundamental costs, real time OLED compensation and higher luminescent OLED materials (i.e. triple emitter blues from UDC or Cynora."


The switch from 2 Blue OLED Layers to 3 largely wipes out the production cist advantage versus WOLED (especially on e the addition of color filters is tacked on) and the addition of the color filters largely wipes out the brightness/efficiency advabtage offered by tye QD-BOLED approach.

So you can understand why it's become a difficult decision (especially when you remember that the Samsung Visual group has been burned by the Samsung Display group on OLED TV once before...).
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post #4 of 7 Old 04-15-2019, 11:17 AM
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So you can understand why it's become a difficult decision (especially when you remember that the Samsung Visual group has been burned by the Samsung Display group on OLED TV once before...).
How?
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post #5 of 7 Old 04-15-2019, 01:45 PM
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How?
In case it is news to you, Samsung launched one of the world's first OLED TVs in 2013 (55", 1080p): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OLED

"On August 13, 2013, Samsung announced availability of a 55-inch curved OLED TV (model KN55S9C) in the US at a price point of $8999.99."

https://www.cnet.com/reviews/samsung-kn55s9c-preview/

"Having spent a few quality hours with Samsung's first production OLED (organic light-emitting diode) TV, the KN55S9C, I can say OLED lives up to the hype. Its picture surpasses plasma and LED LCD in the most important ways, with no major gotchas or downsides.

Simply put, the Samsung KN55S9C produces the best picture I've seen on any TV, ever."

Unfortunately, Samsung was trying to use the RGB OLED technology they have commercialized so successfully for smartphone screens to manufacture large panels but were never able to achieve acceptable yields (despite the promises of Samsung Display, which fervently believed that low yields could be improved and likely promised as much to Samsung Visual).

Samsung got out of the OLED TV business in 2015 (which was a huge loss of face for Samsung Visual): https://www.reuters.com/article/sams...-idUSL3N1RW6LM

"By 2015, Samsung Electronics had stopped making OLED TVs"

So you can understand the sense of deja-vu Samsung Visual must be having about all the promises Samsung Display is no doubt making about how much cheaper these QD-BOLED panels will be in the future...
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post #6 of 7 Old 04-17-2019, 02:31 PM
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And here I thought Quantum Dot OLEDs were all FUD.
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post #7 of 7 Old 04-18-2019, 07:48 AM
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And here I thought Quantum Dot OLEDs were all FUD.
Until it arrives in stores, it's probably safer to assume it is. This is Samsung after all who always makes big claims and promises and rarely delivers on them all.
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