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post #1 of 51 Old 06-10-2019, 08:16 PM - Thread Starter
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We’re halfway through the year, so let’s make with the speculation about CES 2020 already.

What do we expect based on current trends/what the relevant companies have said/R&D leaks?

- Clearly widespread adoption of the new HDMI standard.

- Seems like OLED iteration will still be the gold standard for image quality and MicroLED will still be a few years.

- Sadly willing to bet manufacturers will force 8k on consumers in all high end models, despite polling showing limited interest.

My big personal hope is that we see more (and more affordable) options in the 85” plus space. Perhaps an iteration of LG’s $30k 88” OLED at closer to half that price? Maybe this year’s 98” flagship LCDs coming down to $30k instead of $70k?

I hope we don’t see another situation like 2014 and the beginning of the 4K era, where we got a handful of 100”-120” showfloor models at astronomical prices (that 120” Vizio and so on)...then saw 4 years of those sizes being completely discontinued and all the manufacturers abandoning that size range outright.

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post #2 of 51 Old 06-10-2019, 08:33 PM
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MINI-LED in 2020: TCL is releasing mini-LED in 2020 expected to be better than QLED local dimming while matching OLED in both blacks and color depth, but cheaper
https://youtu.be/v28YCIwuoOY
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post #3 of 51 Old 06-10-2019, 09:39 PM
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With MiniLED about to make major entries into the market, and MicroLED probably a few years away, I bet we'll start seeing downward price pressure on OLED. Already 2019 panels are starting at considerably lower prices (not because of MiniLED or MicroLED, just pointing out in general).

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post #4 of 51 Old 06-11-2019, 03:52 AM
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Originally Posted by 8KCRT View Post
MINI-LED in 2020: TCL is releasing mini-LED in 2020 expected to be better than QLED local dimming while matching OLED in both blacks and color depth, but cheaper
https://youtu.be/v28YCIwuoOY
Only self-emissive technologies can output perfect blacks though. By shutting off single pixels. While MiniLEDs might shorten the contrast gap and make up for that gap with high peak brightness, I highly doubt it can beat OLED's dark room performance. Not only that but the demo of the prototype showed visible blooming which they promise won't be the case for the final product but then again how many times have we seen these no-blooming promises with the LED tech and no one ever delivered on that promise. I think no led backlighting system can 100% eradicate blooming. OLED's main appeal is its perfect blacks and no blooming, I just don't see MiniLED cutting it for anyone used to OLED's pic or who needs it for their viewing environment.
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post #5 of 51 Old 06-11-2019, 05:00 AM
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One should keep an eye on the dual layer LCD of Hisense....comes in one size, 65'', only though. Could be a gamechanger for the high-end market.
https://www.cnet.com/news/look-out-o...t-lower-price/


...and minLED FALD LCD.
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post #6 of 51 Old 06-11-2019, 05:05 AM
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That Apple monitor wants to be a gamechanger to.
https://www.avsforum.com/forum/166-l...echnology.html


Maybe time for a Apple TV prototype at CES?
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post #7 of 51 Old 06-11-2019, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post
One should keep an eye on the dual layer LCD of Hisense....comes in one size, 65'', only though. Could be a gamechanger for the high-end market.
https://www.cnet.com/news/look-out-o...t-lower-price/


...and minLED FALD LCD.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v28YCIwuoOY
I have my doubts about it being lower cost than WOLED, but Hisense's ULED QD-Dual-LCD technology will deliver OLED-like blacks (along with OLED-like peak whites).

The only PQ deficit tjis technology will suffer from is pooroff angle-viewing, as also akbowledged in the article:

'Moving off-angle I also noticed that the ULED XD didn't keep its brightness and fidelity as well as the OLED set. I asked Chris Porter, director of product planning, for an explanation. "When you stack two VA panels, you compound your viewing angle issues. We know it's important and it's on our radar."'

Again, I have a tough time seeing Hisense's dual-LCD ULED undercutting WOLEDs ever-decreasing prices, but with 4K luminance control backed by a 132 zone FALD backlight, this TV offers the promise of true blacks (maning 0.0000 cd/m2) over any any zone of the screen masuring up to 7.6% or more (like letterbox bars) and a worst-case for star fields of blacks below 0.001 cd/m2 when starts are pumping out pounts of light with 1000 cd/m2.

Dual IPS panels should be able to delver native CR of 1,000,00:1 so if they are truly stacking dual VA panels, Native CR could be much higher than 1,000,000:1. At least 25,000,000:1 and possibly as high as 36,000,000:1.

That would translate to starfield blacks of 0.00003 to 0.00004 (in line with their spec of 0.00003 cd/m2 black levels).

This technology will be OLED-Like in every sense of the word, and true RGB to boot, as well as possibly suffering from less severe ABL.

I just don't believe it will be cheaper than WOLED:

'Looking ahead, I expect LG's cheapest 65-inch OLED TV in early 2020, the B9, to retail somewhere between $2,000 and $2,500. To be a "value" compared to that set, the ULED XD should cost less than $2,000 at 65 inches.'

Now 'retail' is always a loaded word, especially when it comes to the highly-seasonal TV market.

The 65C9 launched at an MSRP of $3500 and is already discounted 10% below that level in mainstream channels a month+ after launch. The 65B8 launched with a $3000 MSRP but dipped to $2200 over Black Friday week and has mostly sold at discounted pricing of $2300 since then (attached).

With almost twice the production capacity from the new plant in China opening up late this year, my forecast for 2020 is 65C20 MSRP pricing of $3000 and overall 65" WOLED pricing of ~20% below 2019 levels. This means the 65B20 should easily dip below $2000 in November 2020 and sales after then are likely to be closer to $1800 than $2200.

So if Hisense's 65" ULED is $1500 in 2020, it may get some interest, but again, I have my doubts they can profitably be priced at that level...
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post #8 of 51 Old 06-11-2019, 06:59 PM
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Crazy how cheap OLED TVs have gotten but we can't get a proper OLED or let alone a legit FALD 32" PC monitor that does HDR right and at a decent price.

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post #9 of 51 Old 06-13-2019, 08:40 PM
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-OLED: 48" models, HDMI 2.1 across all manufacturers, improved brightness
-QLED: HDMI 2.1 support
-LCD PC monitors: more widespread adoption of FALD/mini LED, DSC 1.2 implementation over DP1.4a, prices will remain very high (>$1.5k for 27" models)
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post #10 of 51 Old 06-20-2019, 03:30 AM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
I have my doubts about it being lower cost than WOLED, but Hisense's ULED QD-Dual-LCD technology will deliver OLED-like blacks (along with OLED-like peak whites).
Some good info on the new dual LCD layer TVs launching next year. Looks like they were delayed from 2019 in order to make the second grayscale layer full 4K resolution instead of 2K used on the prototype. These guys seem to think it will still be much cheaper than OLED and offer better brightness (especially considering ABL).

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post #11 of 51 Old 06-20-2019, 03:57 AM
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What to expect lol...

The same thing you were expecting last year from this year that got silently forgotten about or delayed.
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post #12 of 51 Old 06-20-2019, 04:17 AM
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The demo above was performed in a bright room, so the salesman’s claim that visitors were impressed with the black levels doesn’t mean much. When someone challenged as to how it performs against OLED, he then says “it’s black enough”.

Let’s see how it performs in a dark room. Let’s see how good black levels, blooming control and off-axis viewing are in a more typical viewing environment is.

With that said, it does look promising.

Current displays- LG 65C9, LG 77G7, LG 65B6

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post #13 of 51 Old 06-20-2019, 10:58 AM
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I really hope we see a lower priced OLED in the 85"+ category. Any guesses as to how many years it will take to see something in this category at less than $10k?

Not to hijack the thread but a related question is: how does everyone feel about a 77" OLED vs a 85"+ non OLED?

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post #14 of 51 Old 06-20-2019, 01:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizziwig View Post
Some good info on the new dual LCD layer TVs launching next year. Looks like they were delayed from 2019 in order to make the second grayscale layer full 4K resolution instead of 2K used on the prototype. These guys seem to think it will still be much cheaper than OLED and offer better brightness (especially considering ABL).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-e8SyX0a48
As they say, 'talk is cheap'.

WOLED cost less than twice the cost of LCD panels today (and getting cheaper every year).

Yes, with all of the Chinese 10.5G LCD factories coming online, the cost of 65" and 75" LCD panels are on a steep cost-down trajectory as well, but for dual-LCDs to be 'much cheaper' than WOLED TVs seems outside tue realm of possibility (not to mention that viewing angles will still s*ck).

It would be great if Hisense ULED dual-LCD delivers competetive performance at lower cost than WOLED - that much more pressure on LGD to keep up their momentum on driving down WOLED panel prices...
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post #15 of 51 Old 06-20-2019, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
As they say, 'talk is cheap'.

WOLED cost less than twice the cost of LCD panels today (and getting cheaper every year).

Yes, with all of the Chinese 10.5G LCD factories coming online, the cost of 65" and 75" LCD panels are on a steep cost-down trajectory as well, but for dual-LCDs to be 'much cheaper' than WOLED TVs seems outside tue realm of possibility (not to mention that viewing angles will still s*ck).

It would be great if Hisense ULED dual-LCD delivers competetive performance at lower cost than WOLED - that much more pressure on LGD to keep up their momentum on driving down WOLED panel prices...
https://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.ph...&id=1560856205

Looks like Hisense will making their splash with these first. Compliments of LGD.

Sony 65A1E
LG 65EF9500
LG 55EG9100
Samsung 60F8500
LG UP870 Multi-Region
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Originally Posted by Dianabol5mg View Post
https://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.ph...&id=1560856205

Looks like Hisense will making their splash with these first. Compliments of LGD.
Exactly: "The launch of the TV is an about-face from the Chinese brand (Hisense) who has for years been marketing its LCD TVs as "ULED" and been eager to talk down OLED TVs at trade shows. However, as OLED TVs continue to capture market share the technology is getting harder for TV makers to ignore. LG Display is also expected to start its major push for OLED TVs in the Chinese market with the opening of its second OLED factory, in Guangzhou China, later this summer.

By 2020, Samsung and TCL will be the only top-10 TV brands not offering WOLED TVs. Compare that growth over the past 4-5 years to the shrinking QLED Alliance to get read on the tealeaves...
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post #17 of 51 Old 06-23-2019, 05:42 AM
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Is Sony and/or Samsung working on dual layer LCD or Mini LED tvs for release in the relatively near future (2020)?

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post #18 of 51 Old 06-23-2019, 06:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Wizziwig View Post
Some good info on the new dual LCD layer TVs launching next year. Looks like they were delayed from 2019 in order to make the second grayscale layer full 4K resolution instead of 2K used on the prototype. These guys seem to think it will still be much cheaper than OLED and offer better brightness (especially considering ABL).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-e8SyX0a48
Lol at these used car salesmen. "No display produces perfect black, it's not possible". Sure thing bud

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post #19 of 51 Old 06-23-2019, 07:04 AM
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Originally Posted by G-Rex View Post
Is Sony and/or Samsung working on dual layer LCD or Mini LED tvs for release in the relatively near future (2020)?

Samsung is working on miniLED TVs and will continue with their QLED displays. Chinese manufacturer Sanan is supplying Samsung with miniLEDs for the upcoming products. Beyond that, nothing is out there about their future products, but they do intend to introduce miniLED TVs for the holiday season or early next year.
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post #20 of 51 Old 06-23-2019, 07:15 AM
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Is Sony and/or Samsung working on dual layer LCD or Mini LED tvs for release in the relatively near future (2020)?
They are all working on miniLED. Samsung was bragging about a 85'' miniLED launch a while back but didn't go through with it...was to expensive according flatpanelshd.
https://www.avsforum.com/forum/166-l...-flagship.html


Hisense is working for many years on the dual layer LCD stuff. Once they launch it and it is a succes the competition will take it apart and come up with their own version.
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post #21 of 51 Old 06-25-2019, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Areth View Post
...
My big personal hope is that we see more (and more affordable) options in the 85” plus space. Perhaps an iteration of LG’s $30k 88” OLED at closer to half that price? Maybe this year’s 98” flagship LCDs coming down to $30k instead of $70k?
...
This is my hope as well. I love my 88" FALD 4K LED (2016 Samsung) but there's no way I'm going smaller for my next display, and there's no way I'm paying more than $10k. Ok maybe $11k

Whether it's an 88" 8K OLED or a 98" 8K LED, whichever I can buy sooner for my price on closeout will hang on my wall

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post #22 of 51 Old 06-25-2019, 02:49 PM
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Are we going to see 12bit 4k tvs in 2020??

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post #23 of 51 Old 06-25-2019, 07:46 PM
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Lol at these used car salesmen. "No display produces perfect black, it's not possible". Sure thing bud
That statement is technically correct, though.

For something to be perfect black, it not only needs to emit no light, but would also need to absorb 100% of light cast on it. The blackest material we are able to produce can absorb 99.96% of light. Very impressive, but not perfect, and still well ahead of television screens.
https://www.livescience.com/58561-sp...-material.html

No TV has zero light emission either because everything emits black body radiation, even a TV that is turned off. The amount of visible light at room temperature is low, but not zero. This is determined by Planck's law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_law. If you do the math, you can see that perfect emission is only achievable is your TV is kept at a temperature of absolute zero.

The laws of physics make perfect blacks and infinite contrast ratios impossible to achieve.
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post #24 of 51 Old 06-29-2019, 04:58 PM
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Hisense is working for many years on the dual layer LCD stuff. Once they launch it and it is a succes the competition will take it apart and come up with their own version.
Not sure if this is actually a Hisense technology at all. Do they even have their own LCD Fab? As far as I recall, these are the main LCD TV panel manufacturers:

AUO, BOE, CMI, Foxcon, LG, Samsung, TCL. Some of these guys are already shipping Gen 11 glass products and I'm sure they will not give up any market share to OLED without a fight. The extreme competition in LCD panel manufacturing is driving down pricing and increasing innovation. Can't say the same for the LG OLED TV monopoly.

BOE has previously shown the dual LCD panel technology (calling it BD Cell) so maybe they are the Hisense supplier?

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We’re halfway through the year, so let’s make with the speculation about CES 2020 already.

What do we expect based on current trends/what the relevant companies have said/R&D leaks?

- Clearly widespread adoption of the new HDMI standard.

- Seems like OLED iteration will still be the gold standard for image quality and MicroLED will still be a few years.

- Sadly willing to bet manufacturers will force 8k on consumers in all high end models, despite polling showing limited interest.

My big personal hope is that we see more (and more affordable) options in the 85” plus space. Perhaps an iteration of LG’s $30k 88” OLED at closer to half that price? Maybe this year’s 98” flagship LCDs coming down to $30k instead of $70k?

I hope we don’t see another situation like 2014 and the beginning of the 4K era, where we got a handful of 100”-120” showfloor models at astronomical prices (that 120” Vizio and so on)...then saw 4 years of those sizes being completely discontinued and all the manufacturers abandoning that size range outright.

Reason I’m buying a 4K OLED now LGC9 is because I think 8K will be forced on customers and this is the last year we will be offered a 55” 4K OLED from LG, next year they have a 48” 4K lower cost OLED model planned.
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post #26 of 51 Old 06-30-2019, 08:52 AM
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Not sure if this is actually a Hisense technology at all. Do they even have their own LCD Fab? As far as I recall, these are the main LCD TV panel manufacturers:

AUO, BOE, CMI, Foxcon, LG, Samsung, TCL. Some of these guys are already shipping Gen 11 glass products and I'm sure they will not give up any market share to OLED without a fight. The extreme competition in LCD panel manufacturing is driving down pricing and increasing innovation. Can't say the same for the LG OLED TV monopoly.

BOE has previously shown the dual LCD panel technology (calling it BD Cell) so maybe they are the Hisense supplier?

https://youtu.be/VsxpUZaggcw?t=381
Not shure how they plan to massproduct the idea.

this is what is stated in the C|NET article:
Those other TV makers could conceivably come up with their own dual-module technology as well, but Ninesling says it won't be soon. "We've been working on this for years, and we know that we're way out front. The precision bonding that has to take place to align two 4K modules is state-of-the-art factory technology."
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post #27 of 51 Old 06-30-2019, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Wizziwig View Post
Not sure if this is actually a Hisense technology at all. Do they even have their own LCD Fab? As far as I recall, these are the main LCD TV panel manufacturers:

AUO, BOE, CMI, Foxcon, LG, Samsung, TCL. Some of these guys are already shipping Gen 11 glass products and I'm sure they will not give up any market share to OLED without a fight. The extreme competition in LCD panel manufacturing is driving down pricing and increasing innovation. Can't say the same for the LG OLED TV monopoly.

BOE has previously shown the dual LCD panel technology (calling it BD Cell) so maybe they are the Hisense supplier?

https://youtu.be/VsxpUZaggcw?t=381
According to this article, Hisense's panel supplier may be Innolux, which has also been actively developing dual-cell LCD (branded 'Mega-Zone').
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post #28 of 51 Old 06-30-2019, 02:05 PM
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If it delivers the promised price/performance, I think it's safe to say we'll probably see a flood of these dual-LCD panel products from all the major TV manufacturers in the coming years. There is such a huge amount of LCD production capacity in the world, they are bound to look for new ways to keep them selling indefinitely.

The best LCD products already have better brightness, lifetime, motion-resolution, color volume, color gradation, and uniformity. I'll be interested in seeing whether they can combine this dual-panel approach with the filters Sony and Samsung use on their flagships to improve viewing angles and light reflection. If so, that would eliminate the only major remaining OLED advantage. The infinite contrast advantage will remain but is mostly irrelevant once you approach 1,000,000:1 due to limits of human vision and/or ambient lighting.
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post #29 of 51 Old 07-01-2019, 06:41 AM
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What about electricity usage? Seems like driving through 2 LCD layers instead of 1 would require significantly brighter back lighting. Maybe they would have FALD->Grey->Color. Which would cut down some, but also might introduce a little blooming. Many municipalities have restrictions on watts.
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post #30 of 51 Old 07-01-2019, 07:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 8KCRT View Post
MINI-LED in 2020: TCL is releasing mini-LED in 2020 expected to be better than QLED local dimming while matching OLED in both blacks and color depth, but cheaper
https://youtu.be/v28YCIwuoOY


mLED matching OLED blacks ? Nah. µLED yes, but not mLED
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