Will OTA DVRs be obsolete with ATSC 3.0 Conversion? - Page 3 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #61 of 69 Old 11-25-2017, 10:55 AM
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DRM has been a part of modern cable/FIOS life. With a cable card you can record all your Primetime shows for time shifting. You may not be able to move them off the DVR for sharing or archiving, but you can still time-shift, skip commercials and with a large HDD, collect entire seasons for summer binge watching. So the same thing may happen to OTA with ATSC-3 -- Primetime shows are broadcast with a copy-once flag for personal time-shifting but prevent episode posting on U-Tube.

If they were to implement a copy-never flag on all ATSC-3 content to kill DVR'ing -- that just might cause a huge resurgence in cable subscriptions.
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post #62 of 69 Old 11-25-2017, 11:29 AM - Thread Starter
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They can then enjoy that they (supposedly) stopped people 'copying'. They can then realize even less are watching. I'm sure there are figures with percentages of actual 'viewers' vs 'time shifters' somewhere.

If they would/could realize when commercials are skipped, some do filter thru (which is better than nothing) and more so, at least the program is being watched vs missing it completely due to other activities.

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Recording free OTA TV for 'time shifting' has been here since 1975. Will there be DVR's to do the same when ATSC3 obsoletes existing DVR's??
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post #63 of 69 Old 11-25-2017, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by videobruce View Post
I'm sure there are figures with percentages of actual 'viewers' vs 'time shifters' somewhere.
Yeah, there is. Basically, it varies by the water-cooler value of the program. Live sports gets time-shifted less than reality shows which get shifted less than scripted fare. And, within scripted fare, buzzworthy shows such as "The Walking Dead" get shifted less than "The Mick." Face it, you're not going to run into a spoiler on Twitter about "The Mick." You gotta watch "TWD" or stay off the interwebs until you do.

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If they would/could realize when commercials are skipped, some do filter thru (which is better than nothing) and more so, at least the program is being watched vs missing it completely due to other activities.
For the whole targeted-advertising thing to work.. ATSC 3.0 viewers will have to SEE the ads. And nothing would please broadcasters more than being able to force viewers to do that one way or another. It's not difficult to envision a DVR that won't let you skip commercials as well as one that would change out some ads if you watch a program on Thursday instead of when it aired the previous Saturday.

...or charge a nominal fee to skip ads, altogether.

Of course, there are things to remember with this speculation.
  • I can't find the exact research on this.. probably because it was something we did in-house... most DVR users don't skip the ads. Those who do don't skip them all (which is why it costs more to buy first or last-in-set). You can quibble the specifics, but television advertising does continue to deliver results. Broadcasters continue to make decent coin from this. They may not care if TiVo or Tablo trot out ATSC 3.0 boxes.
  • Television viewership is very rapidly moving toward an on-demand model. I know I'm already to the point I don't depend on my DVR like I used to. Especially when it comes to shows I never thought about recording to begin with. I no longer curse my DVR for missing a show because the ballgame ran long or it was in the guide as a repeat. I just stream it.
  • Broadcasters know ATSC 3.0 isn't going to bring new viewers into the fold. No new viewers are going to tune in to "Grey's Anatomy" just because it's in 4K or 1080p or whatever. What they DO want is to make the same coin from OTA users they're getting from cable viewers. Now, every station's arrangement with each provider is different and often not disclosed. So, an average per-viewer figure is difficult to calculate. A combination of targeted advertising fees and/or added-value subscriptions would get them to that goal. Anybody look at what CBS All Access is doing? (Granted, the price point is high due to the exclusive content and library, it's the model I'm looking at. Full disclosure: I have the ad-free version and like it).

We could very well see a box/dongle that'll tune ATSC 3.0, but without DVR functions (DRM to keep TiVo and Tablo out of the game). That WOULD keep adoption costs down. Viewers without internet (considered to be the less-advertiser-desired lower income crowd) can watch in real time. Everyone else can connect their boxes to the internet and watch in real time or stream (with unskippable/targeted ads for free, without ads for maybe $5/month). This way, the broadcaster makes the same money from OTA viewers as MPVD subscribers.

I really do think DVRs will be dinosaurs by the time ATSC 3.0 penetration is significant enough to matter.

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post #64 of 69 Old 11-25-2017, 06:10 PM
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And nothing would please broadcasters more than being able to force viewers to [see the commercials] one way or another ...or charge a nominal fee to skip ads, altogether.
What would please broadcasters even more would be to charge an extortionate fee for skipping commercials.
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post #65 of 69 Old 11-25-2017, 07:32 PM
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ATSC3 may purposefully be designed to kill OTA. If they can claim nobody is watching it, then they can sell the remaining spectrum to wireless companies and eliminate OTA altogether. If ATSC3 is draconian enough to force people back to cable, then they may succeed in ending free TV in the US.
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post #66 of 69 Old 11-25-2017, 09:05 PM
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Broadcasters aren't going to invest millions in ATSC 3.0 to kill OTA. That's nuts.

But the thing to remember is that the networks retain streaming rights to their programs. Any after-airing streaming belongs to the networks, not the local stations. So, it's in the local broadcaster's best interest to allow recording. Even better for them if ATSC 3.0 recording devices can be crippled to force viewing of local and/or targeted ads. It's a LONG time before we see how this plays out.
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post #67 of 69 Old 11-26-2017, 07:08 AM - Thread Starter
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Viewers without Internet (considered to be the less-advertiser-desired lower income crowd) can watch in real time.
Selective discrimination towards the poor. What else is new.

What these greedy Hollywood & corporate capitalists don't seem to get, the less fortunate main entrainment source and pastime is television, not some suburban country club.

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Recording free OTA TV for 'time shifting' has been here since 1975. Will there be DVR's to do the same when ATSC3 obsoletes existing DVR's??
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post #68 of 69 Old 11-26-2017, 12:58 PM
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What these greedy Hollywood & corporate capitalists don't seem to get, the less fortunate main entrainment source and pastime is television, not some suburban country club.
Oh, they get it. But a commercial for the Lexus Holiday Sale is wasted on those who can't afford internet, let alone cable. And advertisers know this. Watch Cozi for a while and count the number of commercials for luxury brands you see.

That said, this is part of the whole "targeted advertising" concept. It's possible the OTA signal could go out with a Big Billy's Used Car Lot commercial in it. Viewers with the internet-connected tuning/DVR solution and cable viewers see Matthew McConaughey in a Lincoln. I'm not saying that's how they'll employ targeting advertising, but it's one way to do it.

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Last edited by DrDon; 11-26-2017 at 01:03 PM. Reason: Didn't want to start an OT tangent
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post #69 of 69 Old 11-26-2017, 01:10 PM - Thread Starter
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Watch Cozi for a while and count the number of commercials for luxury brands you see.
That is if you can make out what one is watching thru the smear.
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Recording free OTA TV for 'time shifting' has been here since 1975. Will there be DVR's to do the same when ATSC3 obsoletes existing DVR's??
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