Originally Posted by videobruce
I'm sure there are figures with percentages of actual 'viewers' vs 'time shifters' somewhere.
Yeah, there is. Basically, it varies by the water-cooler value of the program. Live sports gets time-shifted less than reality shows which get shifted less than scripted fare. And, within scripted fare, buzzworthy shows such as "The Walking Dead" get shifted less than "The Mick." Face it, you're not going to run into a spoiler on Twitter about "The Mick." You gotta watch "TWD" or stay off the interwebs until you do.
Originally Posted by videobruce
If they would/could realize when commercials are skipped, some do filter thru (which is better than nothing) and more so, at least the program is being watched vs missing it completely due to other activities.
For the whole targeted-advertising thing to work.. ATSC 3.0 viewers will have to SEE the ads. And nothing would please broadcasters more than being able to force viewers to do that one way or another. It's not difficult to envision a DVR that won't let you skip commercials as well as one that would change out some ads if you watch a program on Thursday instead of when it aired the previous Saturday.
...or charge a nominal fee to skip ads, altogether.
Of course, there are things to remember with this speculation.
- I can't find the exact research on this.. probably because it was something we did in-house... most DVR users don't skip the ads. Those who do don't skip them all (which is why it costs more to buy first or last-in-set). You can quibble the specifics, but television advertising does continue to deliver results. Broadcasters continue to make decent coin from this. They may not care if TiVo or Tablo trot out ATSC 3.0 boxes.
- Television viewership is very rapidly moving toward an on-demand model. I know I'm already to the point I don't depend on my DVR like I used to. Especially when it comes to shows I never thought about recording to begin with. I no longer curse my DVR for missing a show because the ballgame ran long or it was in the guide as a repeat. I just stream it.
- Broadcasters know ATSC 3.0 isn't going to bring new viewers into the fold. No new viewers are going to tune in to "Grey's Anatomy" just because it's in 4K or 1080p or whatever. What they DO want is to make the same coin from OTA users they're getting from cable viewers. Now, every station's arrangement with each provider is different and often not disclosed. So, an average per-viewer figure is difficult to calculate. A combination of targeted advertising fees and/or added-value subscriptions would get them to that goal. Anybody look at what CBS All Access is doing? (Granted, the price point is high due to the exclusive content and library, it's the model I'm looking at. Full disclosure: I have the ad-free version and like it).
We could very well see a box/dongle that'll tune ATSC 3.0, but without DVR functions (DRM to keep TiVo and Tablo out of the game). That WOULD keep adoption costs down. Viewers without internet (considered to be the less-advertiser-desired lower income crowd) can watch in real time. Everyone else can connect their boxes to the internet and watch in real time or stream (with unskippable/targeted ads for free, without ads for maybe $5/month). This way, the broadcaster makes the same money from OTA viewers as MPVD subscribers.
I really do think DVRs will be dinosaurs by the time ATSC 3.0 penetration is significant enough to matter.