A Glimmer of Hope? Italy may have peaked - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1 of 39 Old 03-24-2020, 08:19 AM - Thread Starter
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A Glimmer of Hope? Italy may have peaked

Their daily new cases and new deaths have dropped for two days in a row.


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post #2 of 39 Old 03-24-2020, 10:11 AM - Thread Starter
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Spoke too soon. It looks like they're up again today. I wonder if their accounting is even able to be very accurate right now during such chaos.
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How do they even account? I am so confused in all this...are there enough tests, or not? Do we know how many people are really infected, or not? The amount of misinformation out there is insane, it doesn't help me parse the legitimate stuff either.


It sucks their hospitals are overwhelmed. I must admit, that is one aspect of this whole thing I didn't properly evaluate -- hospital resources are finite. Of course, I didn't (and still don't) have data to analyze how many people that get the virus actually need medical attention to survive (and, to be useful, for me at least, that information would need to be stratified by a health component (of which age is a part)). Seems the elder and population-dense Italy is suffering from a perfect storm of terror -- I feel for all of them! I hope our more population dense areas (NYC is close to me and certainly on my radar) fair better...we shall see.


What I've learned, or what has become increasingly clear to me, is that as a population we're inept at processing and disseminating factual data. If we're to survive a more potent outbreak, we better up our game or we're all dead! Even if I don't believe (and, I still honestly don't) that this virus has the killing power of its "brethren" (SARS, MERS), its spread rate is undeniable. We better learn to curtail that or the bug that "figures out" a better proportion of kill vs. spread is going to wipe us out! Fortunately, viruses that kill fast and furiously (often) spread less easily (hard to spread when you've murdered your host). So hopefully we have some time to figure it out in retrospective before the bugs do! Of course, it seems our current administration is fine being outsmarted by RNA (maybe we need less of their DNA in the world...).
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post #4 of 39 Old 03-24-2020, 07:23 PM
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Just to throw more cold water: if the spread of the virus is reduced due to strong isolation measures, what happens when those end?

Probable answer: off to the races again. Major rise in infection rates. Collapsing health care system. (Perhaps not as bad as round 1, if things are re-tooled to produce things like ventilators.)

If it turns out that immunity is the only way to stop the contagion, there are two basic ways to get that which I know of: surviving an infection, or a vaccine. The vaccine isn't expected until sometime in 2021. (That's putting it optimistically. Fauci said 12 to 18 months.)

Whether the Feds could could support a significant fraction of the US economy for a year on their (our) credit card...
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post #5 of 39 Old 03-24-2020, 07:34 PM
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How do they even account? I am so confused in all this...are there enough tests, or not? Do we know how many people are really infected, or not? The amount of misinformation out there is insane, it doesn't help me parse the legitimate stuff either.


It sucks their hospitals are overwhelmed. I must admit, that is one aspect of this whole thing I didn't properly evaluate -- hospital resources are finite. Of course, I didn't (and still don't) have data to analyze how many people that get the virus actually need medical attention to survive (and, to be useful, for me at least, that information would need to be stratified by a health component (of which age is a part)). Seems the elder and population-dense Italy is suffering from a perfect storm of terror -- I feel for all of them! I hope our more population dense areas (NYC is close to me and certainly on my radar) fair better...we shall see.


What I've learned, or what has become increasingly clear to me, is that as a population we're inept at processing and disseminating factual data. If we're to survive a more potent outbreak, we better up our game or we're all dead! Even if I don't believe (and, I still honestly don't) that this virus has the killing power of its "brethren" (SARS, MERS), its spread rate is undeniable. We better learn to curtail that or the bug that "figures out" a better proportion of kill vs. spread is going to wipe us out! Fortunately, viruses that kill fast and furiously (often) spread less easily (hard to spread when you've murdered your host). So hopefully we have some time to figure it out in retrospective before the bugs do! Of course, it seems our current administration is fine being outsmarted by RNA (maybe we need less of their DNA in the world...).
I don’t believe getting the test is a big problem, it’s more of the huge back log of test they already have to do. Doing tests was great to tell who had it coming into the country and preventing them from spreading, unfortunately these people weren’t self isolating and were travelling well sick and spread it. The problem with COVID 19 in Canada/USA is it’s now being transferred more so by community transfer, it’s now hard to tell how many are affected with it and why self isolation is so important to stop it from spreading. It’ll take weeks to tell how effective self isolation is, especially for us in the West with more rights, in China they could be more aggressive with locking people in their homes and getting ahead of it.

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I don’t believe getting the test is a big problem, it’s more of the huge back log of test they already have to do. Doing tests was great to tell who had it coming into the country and preventing them from spreading, unfortunately these people weren’t self isolating and were travelling well sick and spread it. The problem with COVID 19 in Canada/USA is it’s now being transferred more so by community transfer, it’s now hard to tell how many are affected with it and why self isolation is so important to stop it from spreading. It’ll take weeks to tell how effective self isolation is, especially for us in the West with more rights, in China they could be more aggressive with locking people in their homes and getting ahead of it.
The lockdown in Wuhan is supposed to end on 8 April. Any bets as to what happens after?
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The lockdown in Wuhan is supposed to end on 8 April. Any bets as to what happens after?
Potential of a 2nd wave is a concern for sure, but that’s also the concern for the flu season this upcoming Fall. I think the bigger question right now is where will the USA be by April 8? USA is expected to be the new global epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in just a few weeks and with the talks of going back to work in the USA by Easter could make it very ugly there. The other issue is younger people thinking this isn’t affecting them but that’s just not true, people in their 30’s who are healthy have died from this, others who have survived in Italy have talked about how they had to be put on ventilators. We likely have months of this before it slows down enough to return to a normal life but we still run the risk of a 2nd wave this fall. At least they now know of the anti bodies our immune systems are using to kill covid 19 so hope for a cure is looking positive.

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The lockdown in Wuhan is supposed to end on 8 April. Any bets as to what happens after?
Self isolation will reduce the incidence, but most importantly, it flattens the curve, so there are fewer people becoming ill all at once and overwhelming the system. It’s not clear what happens after that, as we don’t know how many asymptomatic infections have occurred and whether immunity persists. We have a potentially long road in front of us and we need to listen to FACTS! Pay attention to the experts. They’re smart and have spent their careers preparing for an event like this. It is a disaster that the pandemic team was disbanded, and recent warnings were ignored and the public was given misinformation. Thousands of lives will be lost due to this reckless behavior.
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post #9 of 39 Old 03-24-2020, 09:14 PM
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There are two articles I found particularly informative. One uses data from the Diamond Princess to extrapolate statistics for the general population, written by John P.A. Ioannidis (professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine, professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences): https://www.globalresearch.ca/corona...e-data/5707168

This article has additional information on Italy: https://www.globalresearch.ca/analys...action/5707225
Here is an excerpt:

"On the second point — that people dying in Wuhan with Coronavirus symptoms doesn’t prove that this is what they actually died from — there is now evidence coming out of Italy in recent days, from the Italian National Health Institute (ISS), which highlights this point in an extremely startling and unnerving way. According to their data (which you can find in the original Italian here or in English here):

The average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years.
80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases.
50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases.
Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases.

I find these figures incredible, given what we are being told on a daily basis. Italy’s own health authority is basically saying that more than 99% of the country’s Coronavirus fatalities were actually people who were suffering from previous serious medical conditions, many of them multiple. This tells us two things:

Firstly, it is overwhelmingly the case that those who have been included in the mortality rates from Italy, including those we are hearing about on a daily basis, already had serious, underlying health issues.

Secondly, it is not actually possible at the current time to say with any certainty that they actually died of the illness. If a person has terminal cancer, for example, and they contract flu and die, we don’t say that they died of the flu. We assume that the primary cause of death was cancer, since if they had been healthy and had contracted flu they would most likely have recovered. Whereas in Italy, it would seem that a terminal cancer patient who contracted Covid-19, and who subsequently died, is being classed as a Covid-19 death. This is all another way of saying that it is by no means clear that those included in the mortality rates died from the virus, or from their existing condition, or a combination of both."

I took a look at the report cited in Italian. It says: 'The average age of the deceased patients positive for COVID-19 is 78.5 years (median 80, range 31-103).' 'This data was obtained from 481/3200 deceased (15.0% of the entire sample). The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 2.7 (median 2, Standard Deviation 1.6). In all, 6 patients (1.2% of the sample) resented 0 pathologies, 113 (23.5%) presented 1 pathology, 128 presented 2 pathologies (26.6%) and 234 (48.6%) presented 3.'
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post #10 of 39 Old 03-24-2020, 10:18 PM
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There are two articles I found particularly informative.....
Well polished, but still just a trifle of fantasies.

CoVid-19 is not a trifle. It will punish foolishness. And it's here. "But choose wisely..." to quote the Grail King in similar circumstances.


Stay well,
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post #11 of 39 Old 03-25-2020, 02:49 AM
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Well polished, but still just a trifle of fantasies.

CoVid-19 is not a trifle. It will punish foolishness. And it's here. "But choose wisely..." to quote the Grail King in similar circumstances.


Stay well,
Frank
I don't see how it's a trifle of fantasies. It's pure data and numbers as reported. Hard to argue with actual numbers.
What this article does seem to fail to account for is COVID-19's exceptionally high hospitalization rate and its exponential transmission rate with so much silent exposure. The death rate assumes people are able to get treatment but when all hospitals are full, certainly death rates will increase considerably. Even if the death rate were 0 when hospital care was available, the transmission rate is so great with this virus that the availability of hospital care will not exist for the majority as this takes off.

For me, it isn't the 1-3% death rate that's concerning. It's the 19-20% hospitalization rate.

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Originally Posted by bobknavs View Post
Just to throw more cold water: if the spread of the virus is reduced due to strong isolation measures, what happens when those end?

Probable answer: off to the races again. Major rise in infection rates. Collapsing health care system. (Perhaps not as bad as round 1, if things are re-tooled to produce things like ventilators.)

If it turns out that immunity is the only way to stop the contagion, there are two basic ways to get that which I know of: surviving an infection, or a vaccine. The vaccine isn't expected until sometime in 2021. (That's putting it optimistically. Fauci said 12 to 18 months.)

Whether the Feds could could support a significant fraction of the US economy for a year on their (our) credit card...
I think are some other considerations as to why it's important to isolate even if it's temporary. The longer we isolate and slow the progression, the more likely it will be for a cure (not a vaccine) to exist when the virus takes off again. Also, it gives us all time to prepare supplies, masks, allows our existing doctors that got sick to heal up (and come back immune) etc. Not only that, but it allows for a first wave of folks to get sick and recover and come back immune.

My hope here is with some sort of treatment that isn't a vaccine given to the well to prevent the disease but instead given to the sick to stave off death and perhaps keep hospital visits shorter and without need for many ventilators. I think that, alone, would be a game changer so we could get people through this and onto immunity. If we could get everyone through that, the virus would die off without hosts.

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I am not going to quote anything from the above -- but the folks who like and want to devour data, you're saying exactly what I have been. Moreover, the articles posted by @M49r pretty much sum up my point of view in a much more eloquent way than I could've put it (because I'm too furious for words). If we are going to survive a more deadly variant of this virus (and best believe if we don't curb our human processes (these animal markets to start) there will be one some day) we best learn from how we handled this. We best learn that data is the only way through.


When the sky isn't falling and you claim it to be falling, people stop believing you. Yes, COVID-19 is dangerous, yes it spreads faster than the flu, yes it has some higher mortality rates, BUT without accurate data, we can't properly model it. We need to model it properly so we can determine when it's "safe" to return to "normal life" (whatever the fear-mongers will "allow" that to be when all is said and done).


I'm not saying don't stay safe, especially if you have contact with a lot of people in a population dense area, but...your risk of getting it and dying is, unless you're older or unhealthy, not as scary as the media says.


Here's a thought experiment -- if I told you I ran a study on a virus and found it killed 75% of the participants what would your reaction be? How likely would you be to die of this thing? Do you know? Hint -- remember in word problems when there was an answer "not enough information"...? Well, the 10% number in Italy (by itself as useless as the 75% number, but, IMO, being marketed as a scare-tactic) is "not enough information"; you need to know the makeup of the population diagnosed, their per-conditions, etc.. You can't apply an aggregate figure like that across another disparate population set...it's not how math works! The scientists in charge know this. The media and mass public, maybe not so much. However, since every life lost is a shame, we all need to be personally responsible to avoid them. But, without accurate data, we don't know how responsible we need to be nor do we know how to accurately assess our own risk, so we could be needlessly scared (which, by the way, doesn't help your immune system...kind of like all the animals in cages at the markets with stressed immune systems that started this whole f'ing situation to begin with).


Point is, we need to be a better group a humans, PERIOD! Life on this planet needs to change, or this isn't the last time we all sit home hoping we're not going to die! And next time, the raw viral fatality rate (that directly caused by the virus in healthy people) may be higher...and judging by how we handled this one, we'll have every right to be scared to death then!


P.S. The administration not wanting healthy people to get tested is another part of this mess! If I'm healthy, but could be carrying the disease, why wouldn't you want me tested before I get symptoms. If I think there's a reasonable chance I came in contact with an infected person, you should want me immediately tested as soon as the test is able to detect viral load! IMMEDIATELY! It starts the trace through my history of contact faster, it lets them start quarantining areas. If we had sufficient tests we absolutely should have began doing this. In that vein, though...how long, again, was this going on in China before we (the U.S.) reacted in any tangible, meaningful, way. I mean really reacted, reasonably and to help curb the virus, not like you know, in the "spreading the disease from Mar A Lago" or "watching sports pros rub their Corona-laden hands on microphones like a-holes" way or worse in the "don't tell people and trade some stocks illegally" way). Pathetic, all of it, a disgrace to humanity!


P.P.S. I hope this forum is a little more grown-up and we can let this post stand. I really tried not to get "political" and stay fact-forward, but...I know these things are really hard to hear these days! If a mod has an issue, please let me know and I'll clean it up before you delete it...that'd be kind!
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I don't see how it's a trifle of fantasies. It's pure data and numbers as reported. ...
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Benjamin Disraeli

The data is used to tell a lie that will lead the ignorant to foolish behavior. Numbers lie when taken out of context. They become meaningless, but the author never lets on because they must mislead the reader in order to tell it "the right way."

Sure, lots of Italian fatalities are over 60 years old, but a little research will tell you that fully 30% of the Italian population is over 60 years old! And the reason few kids die is that only 15% of the population is below 20 years old. The country's population was shrinking before CoVid-19. The death toll is a lesson in foolish behavior resulting in failed healthcare.

The US is different, 25% are under 20 years and 25% are over 60. Given vaping issues, it's likely the US will see an even split, especially if the young are foolish as a result of tripe like this.

Stay well,
Frank
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post #14 of 39 Old 03-25-2020, 10:01 PM
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Originally Posted by M49r View Post
There are two articles I found particularly informative. One uses data from the Diamond Princess to extrapolate statistics for the general population, written by John P.A. Ioannidis (professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine, professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences): https://www.globalresearch.ca/corona...e-data/5707168

This article has additional information on Italy: https://www.globalresearch.ca/analys...action/5707225
Here is an excerpt:

"On the second point — that people dying in Wuhan with Coronavirus symptoms doesn’t prove that this is what they actually died from — there is now evidence coming out of Italy in recent days, from the Italian National Health Institute (ISS), which highlights this point in an extremely startling and unnerving way. According to their data (which you can find in the original Italian here or in English here):

The average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years.
80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases.
50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases.
Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases.

I find these figures incredible, given what we are being told on a daily basis. Italy’s own health authority is basically saying that more than 99% of the country’s Coronavirus fatalities were actually people who were suffering from previous serious medical conditions, many of them multiple. This tells us two things:

Firstly, it is overwhelmingly the case that those who have been included in the mortality rates from Italy, including those we are hearing about on a daily basis, already had serious, underlying health issues.

Secondly, it is not actually possible at the current time to say with any certainty that they actually died of the illness. If a person has terminal cancer, for example, and they contract flu and die, we don’t say that they died of the flu. We assume that the primary cause of death was cancer, since if they had been healthy and had contracted flu they would most likely have recovered. Whereas in Italy, it would seem that a terminal cancer patient who contracted Covid-19, and who subsequently died, is being classed as a Covid-19 death. This is all another way of saying that it is by no means clear that those included in the mortality rates died from the virus, or from their existing condition, or a combination of both."

I took a look at the report cited in Italian. It says: 'The average age of the deceased patients positive for COVID-19 is 78.5 years (median 80, range 31-103).' 'This data was obtained from 481/3200 deceased (15.0% of the entire sample). The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 2.7 (median 2, Standard Deviation 1.6). In all, 6 patients (1.2% of the sample) resented 0 pathologies, 113 (23.5%) presented 1 pathology, 128 presented 2 pathologies (26.6%) and 234 (48.6%) presented 3.'
... and if those "pathologies" are high blood pressure and high cholesterol? Half the American population is at risk.
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I am not going to quote anything from the above -- but the folks who like and want to devour data, you're saying exactly what I have been. Moreover, the articles posted by @M49r pretty much sum up my point of view in a much more eloquent way than I could've put it (because I'm too furious for words). If we are going to survive a more deadly variant of this virus (and best believe if we don't curb our human processes (these animal markets to start) there will be one some day) we best learn from how we handled this. We best learn that data is the only way through.


When the sky isn't falling and you claim it to be falling, people stop believing you. Yes, COVID-19 is dangerous, yes it spreads faster than the flu, yes it has some higher mortality rates, BUT without accurate data, we can't properly model it. We need to model it properly so we can determine when it's "safe" to return to "normal life" (whatever the fear-mongers will "allow" that to be when all is said and done).


I'm not saying don't stay safe, especially if you have contact with a lot of people in a population dense area, but...your risk of getting it and dying is, unless you're older or unhealthy, not as scary as the media says.


Here's a thought experiment -- if I told you I ran a study on a virus and found it killed 75% of the participants what would your reaction be? How likely would you be to die of this thing? Do you know? Hint -- remember in word problems when there was an answer "not enough information"...? Well, the 10% number in Italy (by itself as useless as the 75% number, but, IMO, being marketed as a scare-tactic) is "not enough information"; you need to know the makeup of the population diagnosed, their per-conditions, etc.. You can't apply an aggregate figure like that across another disparate population set...it's not how math works! The scientists in charge know this. The media and mass public, maybe not so much. However, since every life lost is a shame, we all need to be personally responsible to avoid them. But, without accurate data, we don't know how responsible we need to be nor do we know how to accurately assess our own risk, so we could be needlessly scared (which, by the way, doesn't help your immune system...kind of like all the animals in cages at the markets with stressed immune systems that started this whole f'ing situation to begin with).


Point is, we need to be a better group a humans, PERIOD! Life on this planet needs to change, or this isn't the last time we all sit home hoping we're not going to die! And next time, the raw viral fatality rate (that directly caused by the virus in healthy people) may be higher...and judging by how we handled this one, we'll have every right to be scared to death then!


P.S. The administration not wanting healthy people to get tested is another part of this mess! If I'm healthy, but could be carrying the disease, why wouldn't you want me tested before I get symptoms. If I think there's a reasonable chance I came in contact with an infected person, you should want me immediately tested as soon as the test is able to detect viral load! IMMEDIATELY! It starts the trace through my history of contact faster, it lets them start quarantining areas. If we had sufficient tests we absolutely should have began doing this. In that vein, though...how long, again, was this going on in China before we (the U.S.) reacted in any tangible, meaningful, way. I mean really reacted, reasonably and to help curb the virus, not like you know, in the "spreading the disease from Mar A Lago" or "watching sports pros rub their Corona-laden hands on microphones like a-holes" way or worse in the "don't tell people and trade some stocks illegally" way). Pathetic, all of it, a disgrace to humanity!


P.P.S. I hope this forum is a little more grown-up and we can let this post stand. I really tried not to get "political" and stay fact-forward, but...I know these things are really hard to hear these days! If a mod has an issue, please let me know and I'll clean it up before you delete it...that'd be kind!
It's easier to be an armchair critic over the response, but even some professional were claiming the January 27th banning of flights from China was unnecessary, and the media was only too happy to call it a racist move. This makes anything the administration does unwinnable. Also, if the test kits were plentiful, you might see a different approach to who gets prioritized for testing. On top of that, there were reports that some of these kits at least initially were reporting false positives. Finally, there is a treatment combination that is showing promise in multiple locales and trials, first reported by a French physician, and that's hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (plus zinc to give even quicker results): https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...24857920300996

The NV governor who pre-emptively banned treatment belies belief, but I will keep my lips sealed for the reason you mentioned (to not get too political).

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post #16 of 39 Old 03-26-2020, 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted by video_analysis View Post
It's easier to be an armchair critic over the response, but even some professional were claiming the January 27th banning of flights from China was unnecessary, and the media was only too happy to call it a racist move. This makes anything the administration does unwinnable. Also, if the test kits were plentiful, you might see a different approach to who gets prioritized for testing. On top of that, there were reports that some of these kits at least initially were reporting false positives. Finally, there is a treatment combination that is showing promise in multiple locales and trials, first reported by a French physician, and that's hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (plus zinc to give even quicker results): https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...24857920300996

The NV governor who pre-emptively banned treatment belies belief, but I will keep my lips sealed for the reason you mentioned (to not get too political).
The facts on the NV ban, from a source that may be regarded as fake news by some: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/us/ma...rnd/index.html

The drugs are interesting, but far from an FDA approved treatment for COVID-19. That wouldn't be an issue in itself, but Trump's public remarks started a run on the drugs, making them harder to get for people who need them for approved uses. I'm not sure that I agree with Sisolak's choice, but his motives appear reasonable.

The discussion won't advance by oversimplifying complex choices. (Sorry. That could be taken as a direct attack on Trump.)
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New York State is the "canary in the coal mine" where you'll find answers to a lot of questions. Nevada's not out of line waiting at this time.

Drug trials started in NYS earlier this week, in a place where a wide range of disease severity is available and the death rate is about to spike. We just passed 100 per day.

It's been over two weeks since the initial flood of serious cases, and patients placed on ventilators early are past the 10-20 days a recovering patient might need. After 20 days, the outlook worsens dramatically. The plug must be pulled eventually, but when you run out of ventilators, as in Italy, that decision has great immediacy.

Stay well,
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From the data I've seen, people with covid-19 entering the hospital are in the ICU for about a week. Even the ones who recover. If you assume they are on a ventilator for a large portion if not all of that time, that's a long time for a ventilator to be used.

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From the data I've seen, people with covid-19 entering the hospital are in the ICU for about a week. Even the ones who recover. If you assume they are on a ventilator for a large portion if not all of that time, that's a long time for a ventilator to be used.
I read that average ventilator time was 10-14 days and most that go 20 days aren't gonna make it.

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post #20 of 39 Old 03-27-2020, 07:11 AM
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This is the study where I got my info. See figure 1:


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...566-3/fulltext


ARDS= acute respiratory distress syndrome. Does not list the length of time ventilators are used, though.

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post #21 of 39 Old 03-27-2020, 09:24 AM
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... and if those "pathologies" are high blood pressure and high cholesterol? Half the American population is at risk.

High blood pressure does not kill you. What may be affecting these people are the drugs they are taking: ACE-inhibitor/ARBs. See here:


https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/0...vid-19-update/


And here:


https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/0...irus-covid-19/


As for "cholesterol", I believe high "cholesterol" is likely actually good for you, at least from an immune system perspective. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick's blog (linked above) has a 50+ blog series on what he thinks causes heart disease. It's not "cholesterol". He believes you should protect the endothelium/glycocalyx. Anything that causes damage to those causes heart disease. So, smoking, living in highly polluted environments, having a disease like sickle cell anemia, lead poisoning, even stress, cause damage and therefore cause heart disease.


Of all the hundreds of books/blogs/tweets I've read, I keep coming back to his theories as making the most sense. Dave Feldman's energy and LMHR ideas make a lot of sense, too, but do not detract from Dr. Kendrick's ideas.

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Finally, there is a treatment combination that is showing promise in multiple locales and trials, first reported by a French physician, and that's hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (plus zinc to give even quicker results): https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...24857920300996


The combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin may or may not be effective. It's a problem when a prominent politician, in this case President Trump, mentions it in a national news conference.


Why?
1) The combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin has severe side effects for individuals with heart isues as they can both cause arrhythmia and may enhance the effect when taken together

2) When a prominent person touts a cure the general public will forever get it in their collective mind that it works, whether or not later studies prove/disprove the notion. See Anti-Vaxxers
3) It may cause shortages of the drug and difficulty for people that need the drug for it's primary and approved usage.
4) Idiots will take something that seems to be the same, see aquarium drugs, and may die.
5) A single small, anecdotal study is not enough evidence for a prominent person to declare anything a cure.



Bottom Line: Let the experts conduct the tests and then prescribe it as appropriate to the people that need it.

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post #23 of 39 Old 03-27-2020, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by ctviggen View Post
High blood pressure does not kill you. What may be affecting these people are the drugs they are taking: ACE-inhibitor/ARBs. See here:


https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/0...vid-19-update/


And here:


https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/0...irus-covid-19/


As for "cholesterol", I believe high "cholesterol" is likely actually good for you, at least from an immune system perspective. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick's blog (linked above) has a 50+ blog series on what he thinks causes heart disease. It's not "cholesterol". He believes you should protect the endothelium/glycocalyx. Anything that causes damage to those causes heart disease. So, smoking, living in highly polluted environments, having a disease like sickle cell anemia, lead poisoning, even stress, cause damage and therefore cause heart disease.


Of all the hundreds of books/blogs/tweets I've read, I keep coming back to his theories as making the most sense. Dave Feldman's energy and LMHR ideas make a lot of sense, too, but do not detract from Dr. Kendrick's ideas.
My point was, that it all depends on what they are categorizing as a pathology. We don't know that info, and therefore, it's hard to conclude anything about the death rate going forward.

As to high blood pressure and high cholesterol not killing anyone, you are quite mistaken.

As an aside, anyone taking drugs based on the president's ramblings, and subsequently dies, should be in the running for this year's Darwin Award, IMO.
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It's nice to come here for sunshine and medical advice.



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post #25 of 39 Old 03-27-2020, 03:15 PM
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The NV governor who pre-emptively banned treatment belies belief...
Not the only one: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/op...ce/2922272001/

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There are several trials ongoing on different treatment regimens all over the world. None has conclusive evidence yet. Some have even failed. Regarding vaccine, 2 are in Phase I of development at this time.

An updated guide to the coronavirus drugs and vaccines in development

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/19/...n-development/

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COVID-19 infection age distribution in US is not following Italian model but the Chinese due to different make up of our population (from Italy) when it comes to age. This would explain the very high overall mortality rate in Italy and Spain as compared to other countries.

Please see the link below for the table from CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...12e2_w#T1_down

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This is the study where I got my info. See figure 1:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...566-3/fulltext

ARDS= acute respiratory distress syndrome. Does not list the length of time ventilators are used, though.
The same "medical magazine" that was corrected regarding Ibuprofen.

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You support using ineffective or unproven or potentially dangerous medicine?

"The FDA is warning people not to self-medicate to avoid coronavirus"

Quote:
A man reportedly died after ingesting a substance used to clean fish tanks that contains a form of chloroquine, a drug that President Donald Trump has claimed repeatedly could be a "game changer" in the fight against the novel coronavirus.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/man-...ry?id=69759570

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Italy's spike of 919 deaths in one day (highest so far) shows lots left in their virus fight (currently 86,498 cases, 9,134 deaths).

Meanwhile, US has 100,000+ cases of COVID-19, with 1,572 deaths. 134 died in NY in one day.

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21E2P0

https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/c...gtype=Homepage

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...0a0?ri18n=true

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