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post #1 of 1677 Old 04-10-2020, 06:38 PM - Thread Starter
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Chances COVID response causes a years long economic depression?

What do you think the chances are our (US and global) response to COVID so far leads to a US and/or global, years-long economic depression, and to what degree? Assuming that some degree of economic activity resumes this summer.



How bad will things get?



How soon before the economy is back close to what is was before COVID?


I'm no economist and I have no crystal ball, but it is my opinion, that IF the government can get relief money fast enough to consumers and businesses to keep us afloat for the next few months, and IF we can resume most economic activity within the next few months, then we can probably avoid a years long economic depression. Those are 2 huge IFs though. Of course, I expect higher taxes at some point to pay for these government loans.



Regardless, I don't see full economic activity for at least the next 18 months or so until we have a widely available effective vaccine or enough people get infected that we have some heard immunity. Economic activity should rise steadily over time, but I think we can avoid a years long depression if we're smart about it and if there are no other surprises.


What do you think?
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post #2 of 1677 Old 04-11-2020, 02:41 AM
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I think it depends on virus behavior and societal will.

Virus behavior matters because viruses mutate. Let's hope this one's stable, as a moving target will be very, very bad.

Societal will involves a nation's willingness to face hard truths and adapt to them.
- can we shut down promptly, to prevent health system collapse (effective in weeks)
- can we find treatments for the critically ill (will take months to determine best combination)
- will we find a vaccine that's safe and cheap (will take a year to develop, implementation matters)

And for some, this cure is worse than the disease. I can't disagree with your 18 month projection assuming successful vaccine implementation world wide. The best I see until then is some sort of antibody test for acquired immunity, or very frequent testing of everyone who's out and about.

That said, Covid 19 punishes the foolish. How foolish will society be? We have no weapons today but our behavior. Pogo's observation is literally true: "We have met the enemy and he is us."

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post #3 of 1677 Old 04-11-2020, 01:31 PM
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Every day the lockdown continues the greater the economic risk. Someone with testicles will have to make the choice. We are likely past the peak so getting back to work and stimulus could save us after that it is just going to be a huge recession with massive inflation from printing all the money. Inflation is inevitable now anyway but the severity of these issues can only be mitigated by getting us back buying each others goods and services.

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post #4 of 1677 Old 04-11-2020, 02:51 PM
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I live in the south, we have always been somewhat insulated in my area economically than bigger cities. The construction boom continues, I'm as busy as ever, GC's have changed from stacking trades to one trade inside and one outside at a time. It does help cases are very low and they shut most things down several weeks ago when only 1 case was reported.

This will be a few years to recover fully. I'm not very religious but I'll be praying that world leaders get together and agree to a hard reset to get all of us out of this mess quickly.
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post #5 of 1677 Old 04-11-2020, 03:50 PM
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This was the perfect cluster_ _ _ _. "Wet markets" were allowed to operate in China. It took a China whistleblowing MD (now deceased) to get the COVID-19 word out. Even with the word out via intel and medical, US response was slow, six or seven weeks too slow. The ability to respond had been greatly reduced by US leadership. US leadership misinformed, second-guessing pandemic experts. Testing was sparse. Pandemic supplies in numbers and distribution was abysmal.

Much must happen or be in place (wet market closure, leadership smartening up, testing, pandemic program restored and bettered, vaccine) before US economy begins to move from back burner to front burner. There's no telling how long this economic restoration will take, considering this pandemic is further reaching than 9/11 and 2008.

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post #6 of 1677 Old 04-12-2020, 10:33 AM
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@Panson , for many years the US had a medical epidemiologist from the CDC embedded in China’s disease control agency to sound an early warning in case a potential global pandemic were to break out in China. A few months before the current novel coronavirus struck this position was eliminated by the US federal government. Had that epidemiologist been in place we would have had an urgent warning as early as last November. In the absence of an embedded foreign medical expert, a warning to the US and the rest of the world about the danger of the coronavirus was greatly delayed and we are now all paying the price.
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post #7 of 1677 Old 04-12-2020, 10:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by no1special View Post
What do you think?
While there's no shortage of opinions, Art Cashin is one I buy a beer for to listen to his.

“It looks like a longer recovery to me. You can hear it in the president’s voice and presentation. You can hear it from Gov. Cuomo. They all want to reopen, but they are all hesitant for fear that there could be a secondary wave of contagion.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/nyse...article_inline
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post #8 of 1677 Old 04-12-2020, 07:32 PM - Thread Starter
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/12/smit...-pandemic.html

Alarmist or accurate? How bad can the shortages get? Are there enough food processing plants (not just meat), that if one or a few need to be shutdown for a few weeks, that the others can produce enough to prevent major shortages?


Essential businesses where large groups of people normally work close together must get priority for rapid, on-site testing and must also take every measure (masks and other PPE) wherever possible to reduce the risk of outbreaks.


Once we have enough testing and PPE, then other businesses can also adapt this strategy and remain open.


Keep non-essential large gatherings banned for the forseeable future.


And as I mentioned before, governments must continue to provide the needed relief to sustain the most vulnerable during this crisis. The costs of not doing so will far outweigh the long term economic costs, imo. With this support, we'll be in a better position to "restart" the economy and pay back the bill.


I think it's very likely that we can avoid a years long economic depression, as long as government leaders are smart about it. The thing I fear is countries pulling back on exports of various things they think they'll need during this pandemic, essential or not, and other countries retaliating. This could create mass shortages, and potentially lead to war. Hopefully, the economic interdependence between nations will prevent that. The international supply lines must be allowed to flow freely.
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post #9 of 1677 Old 04-12-2020, 07:50 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Longballsd View Post
The worst is over IMO. Stock Market has recovered from under 19,000to almost 24,000. Fake News and Social Media has made this so much worse. Sensationalism and creating News is the name of the game now. Covid 19 isn’t even on pace for flu deaths. The most hyped nonsense in my lifetime. I do thank all those who sold me great stocks at Dow 19,000 and under. This thing will be over in another month or so and things will return to normal. No..it’s not different this time.
You do realize that the hospitalization rate for the seasonal flu is less than 1% and the fatality rate is about 0.1%, whereas for COVID-19, the fatality rate is roughly 6-7x higher globally? And I'm using a conservative fatality rate estimate for COVID assuming infections are about 10x higher than the confirmed number. If the same number of people got infected with COVID as seasonal flu, you'd have hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US alone in the first year. The main reason we're on pace for flu-like numbers of deaths is because of all the social distancing and partial economic shutdowns.


I'm glad governments all over the world are taking this seriously and making the decisions and not the media.


The worst may be over, but the deaths keep on piling up and we don't know where we'll end up yet.

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post #10 of 1677 Old 04-12-2020, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by no1special View Post

How bad will things get?

What do you think?

I think this thread lasts 2 days and 8 pages before it shuts down!
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post #11 of 1677 Old 04-12-2020, 08:57 PM
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No one knows.


Here are some future questions that need to be answered before the world's greatest economists will not have an answer.

-When does the death curve go down and not turn up?
-How long will we be quarantined?
-How many hospitals will go bankrupt and therefore what will be the fallout of the damage to the healthcare system be?
-How will the collapse of the (international) travel industry effect the economy?
-How many large corporations and individuals will go bankrupt?
-How many people are unemployed?
-When will the average person feel secure enough to return to normal purchasing?
I'm sure that there are many other questions that I'm missing....

Don't forget, there hasn't been a single nation-wide economic indicator released outside of weekly unemployment applications. Not a single corporation has released any sales figures - and don't expect them to because if they did...

There really isn't a single economic figure that has been released and we don't even have a clue when things could possibly turn around and that's only on how this virus will spread. Remember, the peaks haven't even reached most large cities, then you have the cities with 100-500K people, then there are the smaller towns. It's a big country and it's going to take a while so any guess is just that - even if you are a brilliant economist.

I don't think it will be pretty.... but whether it's a short time or a long time, again....
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post #12 of 1677 Old 04-12-2020, 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Longballsd View Post
LMAO You’re probably right. People always get so sideways on this stuff. Everybody has their own opinion and who really knows what’s going to happen? I don’t know why I even commented.
I like to read the opinions of others. But it's just the opinions, not facts. And I think really "Nobody knows what's gonna happen tomorrow".
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post #13 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 12:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Longballsd View Post
NYC has 6,000 deaths and 19,000,000 people so you can do the math. It’s less than deaths by flu by a long shot. Can it get worse? Who knows. Most likely it will be like the flu and come back every year. Some will die but most will live. I’m not concerned that it’s any worse than previous viruses we’ve had. This is IMO which could be wrong. FYI..there are normally 400-450 deaths daily in NYC just from normal things. I’m using NYC because it’s a big city and smaller town and cities will be less impacted.
Death's is not the right metric to use to determine how severe this disease is. The real metric here is hospitalizations. New York has had 42594 hospitalizations for covid so far - almost all in a 2 month period. What previous virus have we have that did that?

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post #14 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 07:29 AM
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Nobody knows.

My opinion for entertainment purposes: Recovery will be uneven, so we'll have to look at specific sectors of business and demographics of people. I'm optimistic in a recovery within 3-4 years, I think recovery will be parabolic rather than V-shaped. I've been talking to friends in various industries and some of their internal numbers are downright terrible right now. I believe high-end luxury goods will, for example, recover faster (luxury boats, cars, etc). I believe consumer travel will be slower, low-end budget goods (entry level home theater equipment). Basically the people that were stretching for that ski boat that a company makes 5% margin on, that's going to take longer. Theaters I think are going to really suffer, restaurants people will love to go back to - but they may have restrictions on how many they can seat which changes that business (no more sitting arm to arm with the table next to you).

I think the market is reacting to some of the news of stimulus and crossing of the peak, seeing some hope, but when earnings come out and we get a full realization of the devastation I think we'll see another drop off in the market. But the stock market is not the total economy, and the people that will get hit by this the worst are those who aren't in the stock market. The people living paycheck to paycheck, the workers that were maybe marginally useful in a booming economy but when businesses start to tighten their pocketbooks they'll realize they need to do more work with less people. A lot of cleaning house is going to happen, even with a V-shaped recovery.

We don't have control of this yet. It could be that this virus doesn't get so bad and we ease quarantines in a month or two and have some moderate social distancing in the fall again - but otherwise businesses are able to get some grounding again. It could also be the virus mutates in third world countries that are outbreaking last and we have a Spanish-Flu style second wave. I think/hope that is unlikely, but if something like that happens we could have some large elderly population loss causing a world drought in aged intelligence that could see a drop-off in human advancement that will endure over a decade. I don't think that will happen, but again we don't really know.

To step outside of our personal fears for a minute, it's really a fascinating time to live. Scary, but, fascinating.
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post #15 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Longballsd View Post
... Everybody has their own opinion and who really knows what’s going to happen? ...
Multiple choice question:

If you got very sick and felt like you were about to die whose opinion would you rely on?

1. A talk show host
2. An anonymous chat forum member
3. A politician
4. Your aunt Tillie
5. Your personal physician relying on best practices recommended by the medical community

My opinion is that the medical community will give the best opinion on what the potential cost in human lives will be for whatever point and by whatever means government decides to relax social distancing rules and begin returning commerce and the economy to normal.
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post #16 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 04:00 PM
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I think the chances are 100% it causes long-term economic depression. Worse, I think it's 100% it causes long-term societal regression. There are going to be a large number of people coming out of this with addiction, depression, and anxiety they didn't have prior. More, these people may have already been struggling to feed their families, sometimes on two incomes and still scraping by. Of course, you know, as a super-kind poster pointed out, it's criminal they don't have six months of saving built up -- guess they should've got a third and forth job...idiots! Meanwhile, the ultra-rich are trying to figure out when they'll be able to buy another yacht -- quite possibly on the revenue from some insider information they traded on (read, politicians on both sides).

This virus has, IMO, revealed how disgusting the human race is to each other -- every person right now stacking economy over lives like it is that black and white is part of the problem. But, hopefully, the virus is concurrently forcing many of us look inside ourselves and maybe we come out the other side a better person. I can only wish, though have serious doubts. Worse, I have a lot of doubts that those in our United States government are looking out for the best interest of society as opposed to the best interest of their lobbyists.

With that said, at least here in the United States, but potentially abroad, too -- I hope that we start to overthrow corrupted government through whatever means necessary; it starts in the polls (and ends, IMO, in massive civil war). Maybe, for a change, we start voting independents in -- the Yang's rather than the Biden's. I am so sick and tired of our "corporate citizens" doing everything in their power to increase revenue (for the company's elite, mind you) without increasing their societal responsibilities. Responsibilities which include playing "fair" with their workers and communities -- you know, like paying a living wage; like not dumping hazardous chemicals into the water supply; like not building cars with known (and covered up) problems to await getting caught, fined, sued, and killing people to fix them -- like not always putting profit over compassion!

But, hey, you know, small government and no regulations, right!? I mean, the people (the uneducated (by design if you ask me) mass, scraping to get by, hardly any time for their family not-to-mention researching the, e.g., environmental impact of a company) should vote with their wallets, right? Give me a f'ing break! That's when they can vote with their wallets among a sea of super-monopolies whose power and influence runs the gamut over many sectors. Oh, yeah, but I forget, that's so these companies can...what was it? Oh yeah, "give us the life we deserve more cheaply", right? A life where many of us are essentially slaves working multiple jobs for peanuts and on the other side mega-rich couldn't give a damn less, do whatever, kill the environment its people and whatever else to make a buck. Yep, sounds like a great life...certainly love living it, glad to hand it over to my daughters. Not! There's a part of me glad to watch it burning to the ground and another part that hope it keeps at it because long-term it may in fact save more lives to kill the bigger evil, our corrupted governments!

From its flames, I hope arises a new system. One executed by people who are intelligent and motivated by a global good rather than by their own greed and the lobbyist money thrown at them. People that aren't politicians rather scientists, philosophers, historians and, sure, business folks and lawyers. If this virus can do that then all the "war heroes" that had to die from it and their families have my sincerest gratitude! Of course, even if it doesn't, they have, at least, my sympathy.

In the meantime, I'll stay home (despite knowing that my personal risk in my area of getting and dying from this are low) and watch the flames because I want to be a responsible member of society. I care enough, despite that I'm honestly going bat-crap crazy over here and want out so bad! I can only hope I emerge a better person and that we all use this opportunity to do the same. Maybe all us "better people" can band together and make a "better world" because, as it stands, the one I keep hearing about on the nightly "news" feeds isn't one I care to live in much longer and certainly isn't one I want to turn over to my daughters.
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post #17 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 05:39 PM
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The technical definition of an economic recession is an economy that shrinks for at least two quarters (6 months) in a row as measured by gross national product (GDP), i.e. the total value of goods and services produced within a country. The technical definition of a depression is two or more consecutive recessions (12 months) with no recovery in between. In the last 166 years the US has had 33 recessions and only 1 depression. We won't know if we are in a recession until at least 6 months have passed and we won't know if we're in a depression until at least 12 months have passed.

cnet.com/personal-finance/are-we-in-a-recession-or-economic-depression-whats-the-difference-and-why-it-matters/
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post #18 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 07:24 PM
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Not only is COVID-19 horrific from an obvious health/health-care stand-point, but the negative results of this virus on the economy will be far reaching and, in many cases, permanent.

The extreme amount of businesses/companies being completely closed by this is staggering. I'm sure many of them won't recover from this, and will go out of business. It's already happening to a great extent.

People are either unemployed or working from home, so they're not going out to eat as much - not that they could even if they wanted to, given that most restaurants are closed (except for curb side pick up/delivery). Most retail stores (other than grocery/food stores) are closed - not that you would want to go anyway, due to the virus & needing to keep your distance from people. Gyms are closed. You don't want to go on an airplane unless it's an emergency, due to the close quarters - not that you could go on vacation anywhere anyway, since everything is shut down.

About a month ago I was arguing with an idiot (on another board/forum) who said that this wouldn't be "any worse than 9/11". I told him while 9/11 was horrible in many ways, I suspected that more people would die from COVID-19 than from 9/11 (I was right), and the economy has definitely been hit far worse....and, we haven't even seen the beginnings of the economic problems that have resulted/will result from the virus.
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post #19 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 09:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave in Green View Post
The technical definition of an economic recession is an economy that shrinks for at least two quarters (6 months) in a row as measured by gross national product (GDP), i.e. the total value of goods and services produced within a country. The technical definition of a depression is two or more consecutive recessions (12 months) with no recovery in between. In the last 166 years the US has had 33 recessions and only 1 depression. We won't know if we are in a recession until at least 6 months have passed and we won't know if we're in a depression until at least 12 months have passed.

cnet.com/personal-finance/are-we-in-a-recession-or-economic-depression-whats-the-difference-and-why-it-matters/
Okay, so maybe a touch...exaggerated my post -- I'll back off to "100% certain there will be a recession". But, maybe not, maybe we open the economy in a...month?, hope springs eternal, everyone goes back out and...we learn nothing. That could be worse, long-term...like real human advancement long-game stuff. I don't know how much longer we need to hurt before we really start to figure some things out about ourselves as a nation and world nor how much we can bear. Either way, right now, changes are happening and they may not all be for the better!



All I do know is I hope we don't open too early, have a second wave, and bounce back into total chaos...who will trust the government or scientists then. Now, how likely is that...well...I'm not to say. We'll see, though...I hope things work out in the best way possible whatever happens.
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post #20 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 09:48 PM
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You forgot:

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post #21 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 10:10 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Longballsd View Post
NYC has 6,000 deaths and 19,000,000 people so you can do the math. It’s less than deaths by flu by a long shot. Can it get worse? Who knows. Most likely it will be like the flu and come back every year. Some will die but most will live. I’m not concerned that it’s any worse than previous viruses we’ve had. This is IMO which could be wrong. FYI..there are normally 400-450 deaths daily in NYC just from normal things. I’m using NYC because it’s a big city and smaller town and cities will be less impacted.
You got the NYC death numbers right, but NYC is actually 8.5 million people, not 19 million. Maybe you're thinking NY State.



It's less deaths than a typical flu season, for now. And because mitigation measures have been put in place that normally are not in place with flu. These mitigation measures for COVID should also reduce transmissions of other communicable diseases, like the flu, and lower the number of deaths from them. This virus has only been around for a few months vs an entire year for flu numbers. IHME at Univ of Washington is now projecting almost 70,000 deaths by early August, and that's if existing mitigation measures remain in place. Is that accurate? Only time will tell.


https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
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post #22 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 10:12 PM
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So you must think the News and Social Media has made this better? Ok...You’re entitled to your opinion. A wrong opinion but an opinion nevertheless.
The big problem is an administration that isn't doing it's job, and blaming the media is just a big deflection. Fake news, as a matter of fact.
Thanks to the incompetence of the current administration, a lot more people are going to die than necessary, and the economy is going to take a much bigger hit than necessary. This administration has fired many of the people responsible for protecting us from pandemics, and ignored the rest. There is no excuse for how unprepared we still are. None.
Trying to twist it any other way, to use your own words, is just fake news.

It's quite possible if we hadn't fired those people and had a President who paid attention to experts, that we would have reacted to this last year, and not be in the situation we are in. That's why we had embedded experts, so we could stop or at least control pandemics before they got here.

You can't MAGA your way out of this one.
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post #23 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 10:17 PM - Thread Starter
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Donald?
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So you must think the News and Social Media has made this better? Ok...You’re entitled to your opinion. A wrong opinion but an opinion nevertheless.
Can we please not make this political? I'd really prefer this thread not get shut down like the other thread did. Let's just share our opinions on how the economy will pan out. It's been going well so far. I've enjoyed reading others opinions, and it's hard to argue with anyone, since no one really knows.

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post #24 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 10:27 PM - Thread Starter
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....just making sure this gets to at least page 2 before this thread is shutdown like our economy....
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post #25 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 10:33 PM
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The big problem is an administration that isn't doing it's job, and blaming the media is just a big deflection. Fake news, as a matter of fact.
Thanks to the incompetence of the current administration, a lot more people are going to die than necessary, and the economy is going to take a much bigger hit than necessary. This administration has fired many of the people responsible for protecting us from pandemics, and ignored the rest. There is no excuse for how unprepared we still are. None.
Trying to twist it any other way, to use your own words, is just fake news.

It's quite possible if we hadn't fired those people and had a President who paid attention to experts, that we would have reacted to this last year, and not be in the situation we are in. That's why we had embedded experts, so we could stop or at least control pandemics before they got here.

You can't MAGA your way out of this one.
Let me start by saying I'm by no means a Trump supporter nor a staunchly political person -- my alliances reside in neither the blue nor red camp (I think they're all crooks and "our" best interest is the least of their worries).

That said, the more I read, the more I just don't know how true any of what you say is. Allow me to pick some things apart?

You said, "it's quite possible if we hadn't fired those people" -- fired? I heard about budget cuts which were not enacted yet which may have caused agencies to redistribute resources in an unfortunate way. Was that conspiracy...or bad luck? Not up to me to judge. Do you have proof that people in positions within the CDC that could have an inside track on this were directly targeted for firing? If so, that would be damning....

Then you say they, "ignored the rest" while it seems a lot has been posted about "the rest" going with the same flow (or lack thereof, apparently) of information regarding the virus. They reacted with the data and revised their statements -- that's what happens when new data comes in. It is unfortunate that the data was bad, we can discuss why it was bad, but....

Look, I'm not going to say I was right at all about this thing. There was a lot I didn't know.... There is still a lot we don't know. As the information comes in, we'll know more, at least I hope. What's the alternative? That this thing is a huge smoke-screen cover-up of massive proportions and...well...I try my hardest not to be a conspiracy theorist. Especially when, so far as I can tell, China's wagon is hitched to the United States' a bit and their standing in the world will take a hit from this. So, if this was a conspiracy that started in China...well, someone made the dumbest chess move of their lives to put it in play (or the most brilliant if whomever it was on whatever side comes out smelling like roses). How likely is that? I hope the answer is zero, if not, at least it probably hovers under 5%, right, lol?
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post #26 of 1677 Old 04-13-2020, 10:43 PM - Thread Starter
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East Coast States are already talking about restarting their economies as of today.
Talking about it as of today. Not restarting as of today. Maybe that's what you meant, but just making it clear.


Seems like the reopening strategies will be regional with multiple states involved. Almost surely a progressive reopening and not too much at once. Having the numbers spike again and having to shut down again would be awful.


After governors lift the restrictions they put in place, it's still going to be up to businesses when and how they reopen. And it will still be up to consumers how safe they feel going back to support certain businesses. Businesses will likely put or keep certain measures in place to protect their workers and consumers. We need rapid, on-site testing on a mass scale and enough PPE for all.


Western nations were not prepared for this like Asian nations were. Asian nations had practice with SARS and others. Let's just hope this teaches us to be more prepared for the next one.

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I actually have to work this morning. However, all my points were already covered by N1special, Markmon and others in a more neutral manner. Go back and read the thread.
I don't have the time or interest to repeat things already said earlier in the thread, pretty much everything necessary as far as blame has been put out there. We'd just be going in circles, and in any case, the thread starter isn't interested in that. Trying to blame the press is a deflection, and that's what I was reacting to.

I won't be seeing this thread again until probably 1 PM later today, so if it gets shut down, it won't be my fault.

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I actually have to work this morning. However, all my points were already covered by N1special, Markmon and others in a more neutral manner. Go back and read the thread.
I don't have the time or interest to repeat things already said earlier in the thread, pretty much everything necessary as far as blame has been put out there. We'd just be going in circles, and in any case, the thread starter isn't interested in that. Trying to blame the press is a deflection, and that's what I was reacting to.

I won't be seeing this thread again until probably 1 PM later today, so if it gets shut down, it won't be my fault.
Thanks for that. You do make some valid points, but arguable. As does Mustang guy, but again, arguable. Thanks to both of you for not getting into a back and forth about it here.
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post #29 of 1677 Old 04-14-2020, 09:04 AM
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Sorry but I’m not in the criticize everything camp. Nobody saw this coming and people made decisions to the best of their ability. It’s easy being an armchair QB and telling everyone how you would have done it better.

Has every decision you’ve made in You’re life been the right one? It gets tiresome when you have folks claiming they would have done this and done that and it would have been better. Please. That’s nonsense.

Everyone including medical people are figuring this out as they go along. This is unprescidented. To act like somebody should have known what to do is laughable. I do know shutting down flights from China was the right thing. China is a disease. I know that too.
I 100% agree. The virus was always going to find its way here and the mistakes weren't made in Jan, Feb or March but instead over the course of years by not having any meaningful plans in place for something like this both at the State and Federal level. NY did a thorough study back in 2014 and even had a plan for it (at least on paper) and a large part of it was never put into motion, Michigan where I live the same. As the role of President it just goes with the job that you may have to take one on the chin for the home team whether its your administrations fault or not but the way these career politicians are behaving that somehow Trump missed it is laughable considering he had a month to figure this out where they've had years.
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post #30 of 1677 Old 04-14-2020, 09:56 AM
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I 100% agree. The virus was always going to find its way here and the mistakes weren't made in Jan, Feb or March but instead over the course of years by not having any meaningful plans in place for something like this both at the State and Federal level. NY did a thorough study back in 2014 and even had a plan for it (at least on paper) and a large part of it was never put into motion, Michigan where I live the same. As the role of President it just goes with the job that you may have to take one on the chin for the home team whether its your administrations fault or not but they way these career politicians are behaving that somehow Trump missed it is laughable considering he had a month to figure this out where they've had years.
I'll agree with all that, but one role of the President is to act presidential and this one is anything but! IMO, he never has been, and never will be -- he totally lacks the requisite disposition and thought processes. Nearly every time the man has uttered unscripted word or typed in Twitter has convinced me of this: he is a horrible human being! There's no way I can stand for that kind of person being in office. You can say "well they all are" and, to some degree, I will agree, but it's no excuse and to use it as such is a joke, IMO.

Worse, there's zero excuse to put up with it and zero excuse to, time and time again, be "forced" to vote the "lesser of two evils". Why do we even have a conversation every year about "which evil" we want in office? Why can't, for just one term, we be handed a candidate that isn't an "evil" "good 'ole boy" ready to serve up our demo-crazy to the highest corporate bidders? And, when we have a chance to find that candidate, say, during the primaries, why don't people vote for them? Or, worse, do they and the votes are "meaningless" to the party (totally possible given there is nothing in the Constitution about how the parties select their candidates).

Year in and year out, as I see it, we are handed "trash" from both the Dems and Reps...and year and and year out we elect this trash into office. We should be ashamed of ourselves for even talking about "the lesser of two evils" as if that is our only choice. For once, just bloody once, in recent history, can we, possibly, have a independent candidate who doesn't "suck", has some financial backing, and gets enough votes to win?! PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Can we also dispense with the media rubbish about how they "can't win" -- they "can", if people would bloody vote for them and the media would stop with the self-fulfilling prophecies.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH, lol! It all makes me so ANGRY!

Maybe Google, Facebook, and Amazon can put money into Yang with no promises for anything but, "let's make the world better"...?

I'll say this, though, this year, if there exists no decent indie candidate, I'm going to write in, "shove this piece of crap process up your royal rumps", then continue to vote for the legalization of marijuana (assuming it comes up on my state's ballot like they said it would) and any local positions I see fit to vote for. I will never vote for another red or blue piece of crap politician again so long as live and perceive them as shoving a corporate whore down my throat. NEVER AGAIN!

Maybe, just maybe, we can find an indie candidate who knows what the federal g-d government's purpose is (read, no red or blue candidate in the last...two decades? Maybe more? I mean, we've created the DHS (under Republican leadership) and expanded the federal welfare state (under the Dems) so, it seems "small government" is no one's gig but the founders, lol. More, it'd be nice if that person wasn't so in bed with lobbyists that they throw caution to the wind and allow the corporate overlords to further f--k the world up. I know there's a good mix in there between government, the people, and our corporations...who will find it and then get the votes? Probably no one in my time .
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