Sars-CoV-2 Analysis - Page 12 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #331 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 09:50 AM
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Confirmation for preliminary remdesivir trial results:

Quote:
Results from the remdesivir COVID-19 trial are out, and its good news

Recovery time was shortened from 15 to 11 days.


On Friday, some good news in the fight against SARS-CoV-2 was published in The New England Journal of Medicine. The antiviral drug remdesivir—originally developed as a potential treatment for Ebola—was shown to shorten recovery time for patients infected with the coronavirus. In late April, early results from this phase 3 clinical trial suggested that remdesivir might be of value in treating COVID-19 patients—this new paper confirms that. It's not a cure, but the drug shortened the recovery time from an average of 15 days to 11 days.
arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/the-antiviral-remdesivir-shortens-covid-19-recovery-times-study-shows/
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post #332 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Dave in Green View Post
Good observation. But I think you may have missed the intended context that HCQ may be doing more harm than good when used to treat COVID-19. The well-documented potential negative side effects are more than offset by the good it achieves when used to treat malaria, lupus, etc., for which it has proven to be effective. It has not been proven effective for treating COVID-19 but has shown harmful effects.

If you have medical experience you are more than welcome to participate more frequently in this discussion. There are many misconceptions that need to be addressed by those with the medical expertise to do so.
I did not miss anything. Remember these are observational studies and that includes the earlier studies done by the French. It proves nothing as to its efficacy or side effects. We need to wait for a controlled double blinded randomized preferably multicenter studies.
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post #333 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Nedtsc View Post
I did not miss anything. Remember these are observational studies and that includes the earlier studies done by the French. It proves nothing as to its efficacy or side effects. We need to wait for a controlled double blinded randomized preferably multicenter studies.
I agree and have been saying the same thing about waiting for the results of the ongoing clinical trials with placebos. Just not sure how your remark about your patients who have been taking HCQ for years all laughing at the hype fits with COVID-19. Surely anyone who's experienced negative side effects from the use of HCQ wouldn't be laughing and it's still unknown if COVID-19 magnifies those negative side effects.
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post #334 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Nedtsc View Post
I did not miss anything. Remember these are observational studies and that includes the earlier studies done by the French. It proves nothing as to its efficacy or side effects. We need to wait for a controlled double blinded randomized preferably multicenter studies.
No need to wait. The "HCQ for COVID-19" non-leadership jig is up.

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post #335 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 10:21 AM
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Survey of patients correlates COVID-19 severity with immune system changes

The patients’ immune responses linked to the disease's severity.


Why do some people appear to handle a SARS-CoV-2 infection without developing symptoms, while it's fatal to others? Some factors, like age, have been easy to identify, but there's still a broad spectrum of responses among younger individuals that remains unexplained. Is there something with the patient, with the virus they're infected by, or both? ...

... So there's a growing body of evidence that at least some of the problems caused by SARS-CoV-2 are the result of how the virus manipulates the immune system in order to maintain an infection.
arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/a-look-at-what-covid-patients-are-telling-us-about-the-virus-and-risks/
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post #336 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 10:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave in Green View Post
I agree and have been saying the same thing about waiting for the results of the ongoing clinical trials with placebos. Just not sure how your remark about your patients who have been taking HCQ for years all laughing at the hype fits with COVID-19. Surely anyone who's experienced negative side effects from the use of HCQ wouldn't be laughing and it's still unknown if COVID-19 magnifies those negative side effects.
It’s simple, the experience of people taking the drug with no significant side effect is a fact. Your assumption that the use of HCQ on people infected with COVID causes ill effects remains to be proven. The purpose of trials is to determine if the observations are not due to chance. You however seem to already have attributed the side effects squarely on HCQ without the results of conclusive findings.

I was hoping for an open minded discussions among peers with common interest. But it proves challenging.

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post #337 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Nedtsc View Post
I was hoping for an open minded discussions among peers with common interest. But it proves challenging.
That's all most posters expect... without challenge.
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post #338 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nedtsc View Post
It’s simple, the experience of people taking the drug with no significant side effect is a fact. Your assumption that the use of HCQ on people infected with COVID causes ill effects remains to be proven. The purpose of trials is to determine if the observations are not due to chance. You however seem to already have attributed the side effects squarely on HCQ without the results of conclusive findings.

I was hoping for an open minded discussions among peers with common interest. But it proves challenging.

I think the study is meant to show the side effects caused by Hydroxy outweigh any benefits it has for covid patients, not that it causes side effects in them *because* of their covid infection.

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post #339 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 11:14 AM
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I think the study is meant to show the side effects caused by Hydroxy outweigh any benefits it has for covid patients, not that it causes side effects in them *because* of their covid infection.
NO, it infers neither. My response is to a specific assumptions. Please read previous post.

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post #340 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 11:26 AM
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NO, it infers neither. My response is to a specific assumptions. Please read previous post.
I should have clarified - that’s my inference from the data in the study.
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post #341 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 11:31 AM
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HCQ is known to be a fairly safe, well understood drug. It’s sold OTC in some countries. Patients with QT prolongation probably shouldn’t take it. Whether it’s effective at all is not known, we need real trial results. Yale has abandoned it recently, which doesn’t bode well for it.

But the media has certainly overhyped its danger, which seems to just be a spite-Trump move. Which, even for a non-Trump supporter like me, continues to erode my faith in the media.
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post #342 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 11:41 AM
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good point. I should have clarified - that’s my inference from the data in the study.
Observation does not equate causation
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post #343 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 11:44 AM
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^^ Z-Pack antibiotics to treat COVID virus was also heavily promoted.
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post #344 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by mkiv808 View Post
HCQ is known to be a fairly safe, well understood drug. It’s sold OTC in some countries. Patients with QT prolongation probably shouldn’t take it. Whether it’s effective at all is not known, we need real trial results. Yale has abandoned it recently, which doesn’t bode well for it.

But the media has certainly overhyped its danger, which seems to just be a spite-Trump move. Which, even for a non-Trump supporter like me, continues to erode my faith in the media.
Maybe, maybe not. That’s why we need the result of Double blinded randomized controlled study. With its current prescribed use that is a fact. To suggest otherwise on a specific subset of population - COVID 19 remains unanswered. There are conflicting observations so far. That’s all we can infer. No more, no less.
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post #345 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 12:04 PM
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All I can say is that most critical care docs have stopped using HCQ, atleast in the ICU patients. Despite drop in the new cases, we still have lot of patients in ICUs and not one of them is on HCQ. Even the patients who are being transferred from floor to ICUs due to deterioration are not on it. I know several other CC docs who are not prescribing it either. The HCQ is only being used in the trial setting now. I am sure if an RCT shows conclusive benefit than most people will resume using it but as of now it is not even being considered.
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post #346 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 12:37 PM
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Its weird that proponents of HCQ didn't want to wait for a RCT before using the drug. At that time couple of small studies (with several other weaknesses) were good enough but now somehow an observation study of 96K patients is not good enough. Now they want a RCT.
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post #347 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nedtsc View Post
Observation does not equate causation
heh - I didn't say it did.

But the study fits with what my group saw when we used Hydroxy for covid - no benefit - and in the absence of any well designed study showing any positive value for it, is yet another reason not to use the drug.
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post #348 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 12:52 PM
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^^ Z-Pack antibiotics to treat COVID virus was also heavily promoted.
It appears that antibiotics are always advised for almost everything, no matter what it is!

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post #349 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 12:56 PM
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It appears that antibiotics are always advised for almost everything, no matter what it is!

It is to reduce the severity of opportunistic infection
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post #350 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 01:00 PM
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It is to reduce the severity of opportunistic infection

many people indeed get killed not my covid-19 but by infections due to weakend imune system during the fight with corona virus

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post #351 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 01:07 PM - Thread Starter
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-0673-x
Very important that persons with more severe infections that caused scar tissue are cautious in the fall/winter. Think about the Spanish Flu where the virus caused scar tissue and gave an easier path for tuberculosis into the lungs.

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abc4776.full
Ties into the report of the antibody 100% inhibits and prevents infection.  It just takes time to get the antibody right because we can produce trillions of different antibodies.  Previous sars antibodies typically provide 2-3 years of immunity, and after that should produce the correct antibodies much quicker upon reinfection.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coro...of-europe.html
Swedens economy still affected by social distancing and a global crisis.

This whole wait years on a vaccine or months to years on clinical drug trials doesnt work.  We need a national effort to encourage people seeing physicians and nutritionists when an outbreak occurs so they can ensure safe and adequate levels of Vitamins D, C, Zinc with a chelator/ionophore, CBD/Cannibinoid Oil, and even Echinacea, and add pro/prebiotics and digestive enzymes.  These will measurably reduce severe immune responses, reduce contagiousness, and slow disease spread without any economic impact.  Its also much easier to get skeptical persons to take natural supplements.

And we need to avoid panicked crowds in the middle of global pandemics by ensuring that forced quarantines and travel restrictions are not legal. Inciting a panic when nationwide community spread is confirmed causing people to rush the grocery stores like there's a hurricane or like they'll be barred from entering the country is unacceptable.
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post #352 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 01:23 PM
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Of course observational studies can produce misleading data that result in erroneous conclusions, and observational studies of HCQ on COVID-19 patients to date have produced mixed results. By far the most comprehensive observational study of nearly 100,000 COVID-19 patients has statistically indicated more potential harm than good from HCQ. Although by no means definitive that's enough to suggest caution pending results of randomized clinical trials with placebo, which are currently underway.

Until those clinical trials give us a more definitive answer we are free to make our own assumptions based on whatever data we choose to believe. In my case I currently give more weight to the most comprehensive observational study to date. That leads me to an opinion of erring on the side of caution. If new, more compelling data becomes available tomorrow I reserve the right to immediately change my opinion. I'm only interested in the best currently available data from the scientific medical community, not politicians or their followers.
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post #353 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 02:17 PM - Thread Starter
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I think we can put a pin in the
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I haven't seen any stories from any legitimate news media stating this. The only comments I've seen are that "We can't afford to stay closed until there's a vaccine." Are you sure you're not misinterpreting what was actually stated?
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic...h-covid19.html

"The most likely case is somewhere in the middle, where infection rates rise and fall over time; we may relax social distancing measures when numbers of infections fall, and then may need to re-implement these measures as numbers increase again. Prolonged effort will be required to prevent major outbreaks until a vaccine is developed."

This is whats coming from a leading institution of epidemiology, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Which in 10/2019 hosted Event 201.

"Even then, SARS-CoV-2 could still infect children before they can be vaccinated or adults after their immunity wanes."
-Theyre apparently ignoring their own case numbers that ages 0-10 account for 2% of confirmed cases and 11-20 is 3%.

To quote the great Michael Emmet Walsh, "Now, in Russia, they got it mapped out so that everyone pulls for everyone else... that's the theory, anyway. But what I know about is Texas, an' down here... you're on your own."

The billionaires of the world are not going to float the world through this crisis. Their scheme is complete, they've effectively subsidized themselves, isolated themselves from global crisis, and are positioned to capitalize on every crisis.

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post #354 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 03:00 PM
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I think we can put a pin in the ...
Do you mean pin it up on the wall as a winner or stick a pin in it as a loser?

Anyway, my position has been and remains the same position I've seen from all reasonable, credible sources: We can't afford to keep the economy completely shut down with everyone sheltering in place and we can't afford to completely open things up without safeguards and let everyone run wild as it was before the pandemic.

The Johns Hopkins link you posted fits in with the kind of cadenced, careful opening of the economy that other reasonable, credible sources all recommend and I believe in. It's the fringe elements who want to totally shut down the economy indefinitely or damn the dead bodies, full speed ahead who I disagree with.
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post #355 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by mkiv808 View Post
It is to reduce the severity of opportunistic infection

Z-packs were touted as prophylaxis, not treatment, same as hydroxychloroquine.
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post #356 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 03:11 PM
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It appears that antibiotics are always advised for almost everything, no matter what it is!
At what cost?

https://www.thermofisher.com/blog/be...ement-of-life/
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post #357 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 03:12 PM
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Spoiler!
Think about the Spanish Flu where the virus caused scar tissue and gave an easier path for tuberculosis into the lungs.

Spoiler!

Damn. That's like crawling out of a terrible car wreck and realizing you are on the train tracks.
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post #358 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 05:36 PM - Thread Starter
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Here we go, 100% antibody positive for herd immunity.

https://www.sfgate.com/science/artic...d-15289437.php

"To possibly reach herd immunity, "you're going to have to get close to 100% of the population being antibody-positive," he said"
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post #359 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 08:18 PM
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Close to 100% herd immunity for COVID-19 would be comparable to the 95% herd immunity threshold for measles. Makes sense since they're both highly communicable viruses that are spread through infected droplets from coughing, sneezing, etc.
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post #360 of 481 Old 05-23-2020, 10:29 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave in Green View Post
Close to 100% herd immunity for COVID-19 would be comparable to the 95% herd immunity threshold for measles. Makes sense since they're both highly communicable viruses that are spread through infected droplets from coughing, sneezing, etc.
Ah, K. I must be confused hopefully you can clear this up for me. Measles is R12-18, SARS1 was R2-5, the last thing you posted estimating the R0 of sars2 was r5.7. Those numbers just seem different to me.

How exactly is it going to infect 100% of persons under age 20 when they're only represented as 5% of confirmed cases? Do you recall outbreaks in schools in February or March when it was confirmed widespread throughout the country?

And there seems to be mounting evidence that sars2, supported by previous coronaviruses like sars1, is more like R3 but with superspreading events, where only 10% of infected become contagious. So you get these large outbreaks in big crowds, but it doesn't infect high percentages of the total population like measles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...6e5_story.html
https://www.avsforum.com/forum/500-c...l#post59693488

San Miguel County performed antibody tests the last week of March. Assuming the tests were reliable enough to catch a couple of actual previously infected persons, the virus would have had to have arrived at the small mountain community weeks earlier.

https://www.telluridenews.com/news/a...4c816a624.html
https://www.avsforum.com/forum/attac...1&d=1590296721

Not trying to support a narrative or course of action, just want to know the facts. 100% total infected for herd immunity sounds like guesswork not based on the current virus or any analysis of how its traveled so far, as does 90%, 70%, and even 60%.
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