Transmission and estimated spread.
-Active infenction test:
Average household size in the US is ~2.5.
-Antibody test in a more isolated/rural area
-In Vo, Italty, approximately 3% of the population of a small city of 3000 was infected by the time the first fatality was reported.
Estimated total infected during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was 10-20% of the global population, and 25% for the 1918 pandemic. Average seasonal influenza is just below 10% and factor in flu shots. Safe to assume urban areas have a higher rate of infection versus rural areas.
Fast asymptomatic transmission:
Spreading as early as December:
Strict CDC guidelines for testing until March 4, 2020:
"Revisions were made on March 4, 2020, to reflect the following: Criteria for evaluation of persons for testing for COVID-19 were expanded to include a wider group of symptomatic patients."
Reports of total contagious period can be up to 50 days.
Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one discovered in bats -- type 'A', the "original human virus genome" -- was present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city's predominant virus type.
"the first virus genome that was sampled on 24 December 2019 already is distant from the root type according to the bat coronavirus outgroup rooting."
" A complex founder scenario is one possibility, and a different explanation worth considering is that the ancestral Wuhan B-type virus is immunologically or environmentally adapted to a large section of the East Asian population, and may need to mutate to overcome resistance outside East Asia."
There are two subclusters of A which are distinguished by the synonymous mutation T29095C. In the T-allele subcluster, four Chinese individuals (from the southern coastal Chinese province of Guangdong) carry the ancestral genome, while three Japanese and two American patients differ from it by a number of mutations. These American patients are reported to have had a history of residence in the presumed source of the outbreak in Wuhan. The C-allele subcluster sports relatively long mutational branches and includes five individuals from Wuhan, two of which are represented in the ancestral node, and eight other East Asians from China and adjacent countries. It is noteworthy that nearly half (15/33) of the types in this subcluster, however, are found outside East Asia, mainly in the United States and Australia.
“No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state.
the first patient identified with the coronavirus was a man who reported pneumonia-like symptoms on Dec. 1 but had no connection to the market
Type C is what is currently affecting New York and the rest of the country now. The Type A genome results in a less severe illness. Mutating to Type B caused the severe outbreak in Wuhan, mutating to Type C caused the severe outbreak in Europe and subsequently the United States. Note infections are less severe on the west coast despite similar testing and social distancing guidelines.
:::::::So this next chunk wasnt well received but Im going to leave it in for posterity(and well Im not a revisionist), theres some back and forth and then discussion of the virus resumes with alot of useful information being shared.
Hopefully this theory is disproved by this information https://www.avsforum.com/forum/500-c...l#post59544748
Additionally, more genome tracing is showing a clear west to east path across the US
If you look at the phylogenetic network the USA is a possibility for being closest to the original genome.
Adding in more strange information::::::
So this next bit is just a theory but I found it interesting, especially with how the genome played out and the more severe outbreaks in the States(re: community spead in the bay area of Type A since December, but significantly less severe infections than Type C in New York and New Jersey.
Summer 2019, mysterious respiratory illnesses were reported in only the United States in younger populations, attributed to additives in black market THC vape cartridges, and/or e-cigarette(nicotine) use, but 10-20% reported neither using THC or nicotine products.
What wasn't reported widely, however, were mysterious respiratory outbreaks in nursing homes and unseasonsal influenza symptoms:
Greenspring is about 10 miles north of Fort Belvoir which is about 50 miles south of Fort Detrick:
National Emergency declared on 3/13/2020
Resulting in panic shopping/travel, overcrowding supermarkets and airports, and a severe outbreak begins: