When does the Corona ( Covid-19 ) crisis end? - Page 13 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #361 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 11:22 AM
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Zealots to hinder herd immunity?

In an interview Friday, CNN asked Fauci whether a vaccine with 70% to 75% efficacy taken by only two-thirds of the population would provide herd immunity to the coronavirus.
"No -- unlikely," he answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/healt...pen/index.html
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post #362 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 11:36 AM
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Merriam-Webster defines faith as a firm belief in something for which there is no proof. There's no limit to what our imaginations might conjure up if no proof is required to verify. And there's no limit to how con-men try to take advantage of this by telling us to stop looking for imperfect proof and just have faith in what they tell us.
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post #363 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 11:53 AM
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The beautiful thing about science is it's self-correcting. Better data supersedes previous data and better theories result. Nothing a scientist likes more than to be proven wrong. Gives him another chance to get it right.
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post #364 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 03:17 PM
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128 days.
Unfortunately, even if he loses, our fellow "Americans," the ones who won't wear masks as a political statement instead of contributing to saving lives, will still be with us. Well... at least most of them will still be with us.
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post #365 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 03:52 PM
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Unfortunately, even if he loses, our fellow "Americans," the ones who won't wear masks as a political statement instead of contributing to saving lives, will still be with us. Well... at least most of them will still be with us.

That presumes election day isn't tampered with. Not much can be done with the vocal minority except avoid 'em.
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post #366 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 04:07 PM
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"Who in their right mind would go to a 'herd immunity' music festival?"

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A three-day “herd immunity” music festival scheduled to take place in Ringle, Wisconsin, in mid-July is taking this energy to the, uh, extreme. With the exception of drive-in concerts and performances streamed online, live music events have largely been cancelled for the foreseeable future. Health experts have warned concerts could be “superspreaders” of COVID-19 and predicted they wouldn’t be feasible till 2021. Performing at Herd Immunity Fest are metal acts Static-X, Bobaflex, Dope and Royal Bliss. At least one band, Nonpoint, dropped out of the lineup as news of the festival went viral.
https://www.mic.com/p/who-in-their-r...tival-27624382

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post #367 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 04:59 PM
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"...as news of the festival went viral." Was that intentional?
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post #368 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 10:58 PM
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"...as news of the festival went viral." Was that intentional?
Was booking a band called Dope intentional?
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post #369 of 822 Old 06-29-2020, 11:15 PM
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Latest Johns Hopkins Data Plotted Against Gamma Curve Fit

I'm no statistician or epidemiologist, but what I've noted is that the gamma distribution that is used to model deaths and failure rates seems to work well for modeling the pandemic.

I am assuming that is because we seeded the population with cases and then shut down the spread with lockdown, and what we are tracking now is principally how long it takes to die from the virus combined with some additional spread among those who aren't protecting themselves.

I am presuming that the result of lockdown is that we substantially halted the spread before we achieved anything approaching herd immunity. To maintain this status we are going to have to remain in lockdown perpetually. We won't be able to do that, and we should expect second peaks with a lot more deaths to follow, especially since there are still a lot of nations that are less wealthy and more isolated from global commerce that haven't been substantially seeded yet and don't have the means to slow the spread or save infected people.

I'm plotting only deaths here to simplify the presentation. So far, of these plots, only the world curve fit demonstrates a second peak in its initial stages, but the plots I'll post next show another story. Note that at this rate we won't be in the clear until 2022. As long as the virus is spreading in one part of the world, it remains a threat everywhere.

Where I provide ~% share of deaths what I am doing is taking a ratio of the per-capita deaths of a given nation and dividing it by the per-capita deaths of the world, as estimated in the curve fit of the gamma distribution. This is a projection based on current data and an eyeballed curve fit. I'm not using a least-squares or other algorithm to optimize the curve fit.

Attached Thumbnails
2020-06-29-deaths-per-100k-world.png   2020-06-29-deaths-per-100k-world2.png   2020-06-29-deaths-per-100k-us.png   2020-06-29-deaths-per-100k-united-kingdom.png  

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post #370 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 12:06 AM
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Here's a Guardian article that raises concerns about a second peak in various nations.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...ckdown-relaxed

I have plotted per capita new cases per day and per capita deaths per day for each of the nations listed in that article. Note that Iran has the most pronounced second peak and there is approximately a one month delay in the trends between new cases and deaths. Presumably we can expect similar delay from other nations that are experiencing a resurgence in new cases but have not yet seen a resurgence in deaths.

Some of the nations that The Guardian flagged haven't experienced their first peak yet.

I don't have time or energy to check all the nations in the Johns Hopkins database, but my general impression is that Western nations that are wealthier experienced prominent first peaks and my guess is that jet travel was principally responsible.

Note that because testing is not comprehensive, actual new cases probably vary substantially from the available data and there is probably substantial variation between nations also. Here's a chart of testing rates for some nations:



https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Also note that in the US particularly, the drive to profit from US-developed tests resulted in many inaccurate tests being released to market. I don't know the situation in other nations but I presume it is similar, particularly since there hasn't been time to verify the testing accuracy. Some tests are known to have a 50% false negative rate and the average is about 30%, and that's just for the PCR tests. We don't have much data on the accuracy of antibody tests yet.

Here's an article about the accuracy of testing:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...es-2020-06-28/

And now, the plots of nations that are having substantial new cases per day as flagged by The Guardian. I ranked them according to number of new cases and included an additional plot of the world as a population in the rankings. Those above the world plot have above average cases and those below the world plot have below average cases, but these are only the nations flagged by The Guardian as being at risk of high rates of spread and don't include other nations that have substantial deaths already (principally western) but also probably have more herd immunity:












Attached Thumbnails
2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-us.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-france.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-switzerland.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-germany.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-iran.png  

2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-indonesia.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-bangladesh.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-world.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-ukraine.png   Screenshot_2020-06-24 Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Statistics and Research(1).png  

2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-sweden.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-saudi-arabia.png   2020-06-29-new-deaths-per-100k-united-kingdom.png  

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post #371 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 12:56 AM
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Zealots to hinder herd immunity?

In an interview Friday, CNN asked Fauci whether a vaccine with 70% to 75% efficacy taken by only two-thirds of the population would provide herd immunity to the coronavirus.
"No -- unlikely," he answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/healt...pen/index.html
Right. This is why a couple months ago, Bill Gates said we might need to have a law forcing the vaccination to end this. That's when conspiracy theories about him blew up.
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post #372 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 01:09 AM
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Was booking a band called Dope intentional?
Possibly, but for sure, ignorance is "Royal Bliss." What virus??
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post #373 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 01:47 AM
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I am presuming that the result of lockdown is that we substantially halted the spread before we achieved anything approaching herd immunity. To maintain this status we are going to have to remain in lockdown perpetually. We won't be able to do that, and we should expect second peaks with a lot more deaths to follow, especially since there are still a lot of nations that are less wealthy and more isolated from global commerce that haven't been substantially seeded yet and don't have the means to slow the spread or save infected people.
We still aren't anywhere near herd immunity, even about a month after lockdowns were lifted and with all the recent spikes in infections. Perpetual lockdown is unrealistic. But we can remain largely open for business if people would just wear their damn masks and keep their distance. There are too many people, at least in the US, that are still not taking this seriously enough. Too many not wearing masks, not social distancing. As a result, some states have started to shut down certain businesses again, but many still haven't mandated face coverings. Natural herd immunity (where a majority of population catches the virus) comes at a huge cost in lives and there's no guarantee yet that the immunity lasts very long. As Fauci stated this past weekend, a vaccine, whenever it's available, will likely be at best, around 70% effective, and polls have shown that about 1/3 of Americans will refuse to be vaccinated. That also likely does not get us to herd immunity. We'd have to factor in the population with natural immunity into that as well, which maybe gets us there, eventually. There are other treatments in the works, so maybe the combination of those will make the virus much less lethal and result in less severe disease. The solution to this pandemic comes down to human behavior. If the vast majority of us wore masks, kept our distance, and took precautions, this pandemic would be over without the need for herd immunity, vaccines, so many deaths, etc.

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post #374 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 01:52 AM
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Right. This is why a couple months ago, Bill Gates said we might need to have a law forcing the vaccination to end this. That's when conspiracy theories about him blew up.
He actually said that? He shouldn't have said that. How would they even enforce something like that? Grab people against their will, strap them down, and forcefully inject them? Come on.

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post #375 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 02:53 AM
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Zealots to hinder herd immunity?

In an interview Friday, CNN asked Fauci whether a vaccine with 70% to 75% efficacy taken by only two-thirds of the population would provide herd immunity to the coronavirus.
"No -- unlikely," he answered.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/healt...pen/index.html
I'm ambivalent about the vaccine. Here's why.

We already have so many people alive today that we are destroying the ecosystem. Our civilization is unsustainable.

We got to this juncture by applying fossil resources and advanced technology toward saving lives. Saving more lives with vaccines just makes the situation worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...l-dare-mention

My gut tells me that humans won't be solving Covid-19, global warming, or human overpopulation with the same technology that got us here in the first place. My gut tells me that technological collapse is going to solve human overpopulation.

Will I get the vaccine? I don't know. I'm already miserable in my disability. If I do get the vaccine, it won't be to save myself. It will be to spare my family.

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post #376 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 05:46 AM
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He actually said that? He shouldn't have said that. How would they even enforce something like that? Grab people against their will, strap them down, and forcefully inject them? Come on.
Wife's grade school provided mandatory polio immunizations. For me to attend gs a note from doctor stating I received polio vaccine was required. My doctor couldn't be bribed. Different times.

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post #377 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 06:34 AM
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He actually said that? He shouldn't have said that. How would they even enforce something like that? Grab people against their will, strap them down, and forcefully inject them? Come on.
You enforce it by requiring vaccine for anyone to be in school and perhaps several other public places. If a few anti vaxxers need to be kept under quarantine so the rest of the world can get back to normal, that sounds good to me.
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post #378 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 06:54 AM
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I'd like to see a direct quote of Bill Gates' exact statement, which I haven't been able to find. But if he said we might need to have a law forcing the vaccination to end this that would be a valid point when discussing all potential options. We already know from anti-vaxxers keeping their children from getting measles vaccinations that measles outbreaks are on the rise. In 2000 measles was declared eliminated (absence of continuous disease transmission for greater than 12 months) from the United States. In 2019 there were more measles cases recorded in the US than in any year since 1992.

Of course laws aren't 100% enforceable. For example, DWI laws don't prevent all people from not driving while impaired. But they do result in more people being more careful to avoid driving while impaired and fewer people being killed and injured in traffic accidents. Similarly, requirements for universal vaccination for the most transmissible deadly diseases such as COVID-19 result in a larger percentage of the population participating and more lives being saved.
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post #379 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 08:01 AM
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I'd like to see a direct quote of Bill Gates' exact statement, which I haven't been able to find. But if he said we might need to have a law forcing the vaccination to end this that would be a valid point when discussing all potential options. We already know from anti-vaxxers keeping their children from getting measles vaccinations that measles outbreaks are on the rise. In 2000 measles was declared eliminated (absence of continuous disease transmission for greater than 12 months) from the United States. In 2019 there were more measles cases recorded in the US than in any year since 1992.

Of course laws aren't 100% enforceable. For example, DWI laws don't prevent all people from not driving while impaired. But they do result in more people being more careful to avoid driving while impaired and fewer people being killed and injured in traffic accidents. Similarly, requirements for universal vaccination for the most transmissible deadly diseases such as COVID-19 result in a larger percentage of the population participating and more lives being saved.
It's not at all about "more lives being saved'". Honestly, I couldn't care less if every anti-vaxxer caught the virus and died. It's about enough vaccination for herd immunity to protect those that are getting the vaccine. Suppose a vaccine is 70% effective and not enough people get the vaccine, then even if you get the vaccine, you may still be infected. If enough people get the vaccine in that scenario, herd immunity kicks in and the virus is gone. So the anti-vaxxers are causing more risk for those with some sense that take the vaccine. It's just like those that refuse to wear masks. They're going to be fine because they're protected by everyone around them who are wearing masks. It's the people wearing the masks that will get infected by one of the anti-maskers.
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post #380 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 08:33 AM
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It's not at all about "more lives being saved'". ...
I'm sure you didn't mean to imply that the primary purpose of vaccines isn't to save more lives.
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No end in sight. Quite the "flu" huh?

"Why Coronavirus Cases Are Spiking Around the World
It may be tempting to blame individuals for not following the rules, but recent outbreaks highlight larger structural problems and government failures"

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There have been worrying outbreaks recently in Germany, South Korea, Italy, China and New Zealand. In the United States, the number of coronavirus cases has been surging in many states. And in the U.K. the government on Monday evening introduced its first local lockdown, isolating 330,000 people in the city of Leicester from the rest of the country after the number of cases there spiked. “We all want this to be over. We all want to get on with our lives. But the hard reality is this is not even close to being over,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization, said on Monday.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...8dc?ri18n=true

"Anthony Fauci Warns U.S. Could Reach 100,000 Coronavirus Cases Per Day"

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At least 16 states have now paused their reopening plans amid the spike in cases.

“We can’t just focus on those areas that are having the surge. It puts the entire country at risk,” Fauci said. “We are now having 40-plus thousand new cases a day, I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 cases a day if this does not turn around, so I am very concerned.” Fauci previously warned that the U.S. would have cases well into the fall.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...253?ri18n=true

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post #382 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 11:49 AM
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That's not true. 100% quarantine can be a cure. Its how it was cured in China, for example. If there's no where for the virus to spread, it dies. Our USA version of half-assed quarantine is for sure not a cure.
Yeah, Lets weld the doors shut on high rise housing like China did.
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post #383 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 01:57 PM
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It's about enough vaccination for herd immunity to protect those that are getting the vaccine.
That's not my understanding of herd immunity. It applies to agribusiness and means when enough of the animals are immune then it won't spread among those who are not immune. It does exactly what social distancing does. It increases the distance between infectious carriers by interspersing them with a lot of immune animals and dilutes the spread, decreasing the effective reproduction rate.

In humans, the point is to protect babies and immunocompromised people who can't be effectively vaccinated. If there is an outbreak, its spread will be limited because the number of potentially susceptible individuals available to carry it to others drops dramatically.

As far as 70% effective that doesn't mean 30% get zero immunity. Even people who don't develop full immunity will likely have some protection in many or possibly most cases. I got chicken pox vaccine and measles vaccine but I caught both of them as an adult in college. My cases were very mild. The flu was far more disruptive to my health.

I've stopped getting the flu vaccine. By the time I remembered and went for it I was always so late that half the people in line were already sick and hoping to fight off the flu faster with the vaccine, plus on average it only has the active strains for that year 50% of the time. It seemed I got the flu more times than I got immunity. My health improved more by simply staying away from sick people and taking my lumps in stride when I caught it. If I live long enough I might start getting the vaccine again but I'll be getting it when it first becomes available through an automated notification to make sure I'm not standing in line with a bunch of sick people.
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post #384 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 02:13 PM
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Covid 19 crisis will end when Covid 20 hits.

That would be my guess. I bet 20 ends when 21 begins.


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post #385 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 04:29 PM
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Wife's grade school provided mandatory polio immunizations. For me to attend gs a note from doctor stating I received polio vaccine was required. My doctor couldn't be bribed. Different times.

Fauci, Redfield and Hahn in front of Senate this morning.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?473393...ing-us-economy
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You enforce it by requiring vaccine for anyone to be in school and perhaps several other public places. If a few anti vaxxers need to be kept under quarantine so the rest of the world can get back to normal, that sounds good to me.
I get the incentive model. Want to attend school? Need a vaccine. But there are exceptions where people can say no, and still attend. So what incentive would you apply to the general population that would actually get them to accept the vaccine?

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When deaths are dropping, focus on amount of testing. When we have the most testing in the world, focus on positive cases. Anything to keep the fear alive.
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post #387 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by CherylJosie View Post
I'm ambivalent about the vaccine. Here's why.

We already have so many people alive today that we are destroying the ecosystem. Our civilization is unsustainable.

We got to this juncture by applying fossil resources and advanced technology toward saving lives. Saving more lives with vaccines just makes the situation worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...l-dare-mention

My gut tells me that humans won't be solving Covid-19, global warming, or human overpopulation with the same technology that got us here in the first place. My gut tells me that technological collapse is going to solve human overpopulation.

Will I get the vaccine? I don't know. I'm already miserable in my disability. If I do get the vaccine, it won't be to save myself. It will be to spare my family.
We got where we are not because we were trying to save lives. We got where we are due to now antiquated technology and focusing too much on wants versus needs. We don't need most of the junk we buy, and certainly not a new one every year or 2. Consumerism with a throw-away mentality. Production with planned obsolescence. Anything to get us to make, buy, use, dispose, replace as fast as possible. There are ways to make things more sustainable, but that kills profits, and jobs, leading to fewer rich people. Everyone's focused on making the most money right now. Short term thinking always leads to long term problems. We are moving too fast. We need to slow down and re-evaluate. We need to move on to renewable energy sources. Innovation is key. There are plenty of resources to sustain a very populated world, much more populated than today. But we can't waste resources on everyone's wants. Saving lives should always be first and foremost, followed by a goal to ensure everyone's basic needs are met.
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post #388 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 05:48 PM
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When deaths are dropping, focus on amount of testing. When we have the most testing in the world, focus on positive cases. Anything to keep the fear alive.
Yes, I'm sure that's why republican governors of some states are shutting down businesses again - to keep the fear alive.


BTW, US does not have the most per capita testing in the world. There are still some countries ahead of us. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-day?tab=table


US is also near the top in daily new deaths per million people over a 7-day average. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...rage?tab=table
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post #389 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by no1special View Post
We got where we are not because we were trying to save lives. We got where we are due to now antiquated technology and focusing too much on wants versus needs. We don't need most of the junk we buy, and certainly not a new one every year or 2. Consumerism with a throw-away mentality. Production with planned obsolescence. Anything to get us to make, buy, use, dispose, replace as fast as possible. There are ways to make things more sustainable, but that kills profits, and jobs, leading to fewer rich people. Everyone's focused on making the most money right now. Short term thinking always leads to long term problems. We are moving too fast. We need to slow down and re-evaluate. We need to move on to renewable energy sources. Innovation is key. There are plenty of resources to sustain a very populated world, much more populated than today. But we can't waste resources on everyone's wants. Saving lives should always be first and foremost, followed by a goal to ensure everyone's basic needs are met.
I stumbled upon a guy on youtube who has become my go-to most trusted source for Covid-19 analysis and commentary. His name is Chris Martenson.

His background is in pathology, followed by a career in the business world. I don't know a great deal about him beyond that. I've been following him mainly for the pandemic subject matter since late February, but tangentially, I've also been exploring some of his ongoing and previously addressed economic topics too. Which touches upon some of the things you've mentioned in your post, no1special.

Anyway, I really like the way he addresses these topics, going into reasonable depth on many facets, without losing the layman (me). And I like that he's not interested in excoriating the left or the right, per se (though you can infer it at times). In his words, "I only care about integrity".

And his accuracy seems very high in discussing issues related to the pandemic. I mean like, crazy accurate. About masks (strongly advocating them for everyone since the beginning), spotting faulty research (before anyone else seems to notice), etc.

He also has an interesting take on the existing body of HCQ studies, expressing frustration about how they've been done, with concern that politics may have played a negative factor on the quality of the science.

He's also done a very interesting analysis about the nature of the virus, with implications for the prevailing theory that it came about from cross-contaminations in the wet markets.


OK, if it sounds like I'm gushing I probably am. I need someone here to take him down a peg because if this guy started a commune, I just may have to sell all of my possessions and join.


Here is a video he put out 5 days ago, which gives a small taste (he puts out a couple videos a week now).

FYI - he's nicknamed COVID-19 "the honey badger virus" because it's such a formidable foe.
FYI-2 - for those who don't know, you can speed up the audio to get through videos more quickly (x1.25, x1.50 speed, etc.).I use that feature most of the time to cover more material. Bottom right corner, look for the round settings wheel or daisy icon. There you can change the video/audio playback speed.

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post #390 of 822 Old 06-30-2020, 08:50 PM
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Yeah, Lets weld the doors shut on high rise housing like China did.
Yea in hindsight, that was probably the better move than ours.

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