When does the Corona ( Covid-19 ) crisis end? - Page 4 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #91 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Dave in Green View Post
^ A highly contagious pandemic that's spread through close human contact will spread more slowly when close human contact is reduced. Simple logic tells us if the infection rate is still high when close human contact is reduced through a lockdown then it would be higher yet if there were no lockdown in effect to reduce close human contact. So, the answer is very obviously "yes" that the lockdown is actually working to reduce the infection rate.
You over simplify.

Yes....the lockdown is actually working to reduce the infection rate, BUT the frustration rate is exploding. There's more going on here than logic.
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post #92 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 12:30 PM
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I'll bet if you thought real hard and looked around every once in a while and read some history, you would figure it out.

I looked around and studied history and decided that H1N1 was handled more compentently because we had a competent leader that lead and got out of the way of the experts and scientists instead of claiming he was the expert on everything, plus it was before Mr. "Fake News" and Mrs. "Alternative Facts".

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post #93 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 01:07 PM
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I looked around and studied history and decided that H1N1 was handled more compentently because we had a competent leader that lead and got out of the way of the experts and scientists instead of claiming he was the expert on everything, plus it was before Mr. "Fake News" and Mrs. "Alternative Facts".
While I agree with you, I am starting to see the "fake news" comments as more and more true; which is sad. However, I apply it considerably more broadly than OMIC as it seems to proliferate most the mainstream media. Though, typically it's opinion puffery and lies of omission or cherry picking rather than outright "fake", IMO. Of course, OMIC gives them the ammo by contradicting himself often. Even within the same few-minute segment of a "speech". I don't know if this is by design or just because he's too stupid to realize he does it. Regardless that answer, I am sure he thinks we're all too stupid to pick up on it.

Mrs. "Alternative Facts" can go choke on horse d*&@. "Alternative Facts" are called "hypothesis" and they get tested and peer reviewed when intellectual people engage in them; she's incapable as are most her "followers".
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post #94 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 06:10 PM
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My view is that a lot of people have lost the point and all common sense regarding the lockdown. There is obviously a virus out there with deadly potential for certain vulnerable groups. The question is: Is the lockdown actually working?

The answer is very obviously "no". The number of cases and deaths has continued to rise regardless.


The virus apparently has an incubation period of up to two weeks plus a further two-four weeks of infection for those afflicted. If the lockdown was working, we should have seen a significant reduction by now. People obviously aren't adhering to it as the virus continues to spread. This isn't going to get any better as lockdown fatigue sets in.

I live in NJ and I already see people not taking it seriously anymore. They are out and about, socializing, arranging "underground hair appointments". A friend who is a real estate broker said she's never been busier showing houses as people rush to move out of NYC.

Anyone with half a brain should know that there is no such thing as a partial quarantine. The idea of a phased reopening is ridiculous. Opening half the shops is the same as opening all of them in quarantine / virus prevention terms.

The thinking that this lockdown can go on until there is a vaccine is very one-dimensional. The average American has less than $1000 in savings. There is already 40 million+ unemployed (and now without Healthcare). Now, one month has turned into "for the foreseeable future". One thing business can not stand is uncertainty. 40 million unemployed will become 80 million. How long until there are riots and revolt?
Exactly who is "thinking" that this lockdown can go on until there is a vaccine? Specifically, which/what type of lockdown and where? All I'm seeing, hearing, and reading about is how all states are in some phase of reopening and lifting lockdown restrictions. I'm sure there are a few quotes out there that may be interpreted the way you've described, but why focus on the few instead of the overall picture?



Do you not believe that if we had not "locked down" that there would've been even more infections and deaths by now? Deaths have decreased from a peak of about 2000 per day to about 1500 per day now. Lockdown or not, it's what people actually do that ultimately makes all the difference.



It's only human nature that people can't live on edge forever and they will start to loosen up over time. But the virus is still out there, just like it was during the peak. The virus doesn't need sleep and it doesn't get fatigued. I don't think it's too much to ask of people to continue to be cautious: keep a reasonable distance, wear masks, wash hands more frequently. That, and not having large, indoor gatherings, will go a long way in keeping people safe and reduce the need for businesses to shutdown temporarily because of an outbreak.


Fewer people filed for unemployment this week than in previous weeks. The trend is going down, not up. And with states reopening, I don't see the trend reversing. If anything, jobs will slowly start to come back. As long as we don't have another major spike in hospitalizations/deaths, things will continue to remain open. IMO, all state leaders should codify into law some of the precautionary measures that are now only recommended. That will help prevent a major spike and more closures of businesses. More people will comply when it's law. If people don't want to wear masks for their fellow man, maybe they'll wear them to keep businesses open and for the economy.
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post #95 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 06:25 PM
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End?

An uptick in cases and deaths due to premature openings and disregarding PPE and SD guidance, additional COVID-19 mutation, regular flu, and 2nd wave of COVID-19 are enough to think about at the moment.


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post #96 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 06:52 PM
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Exactly who is "thinking" that this lockdown can go on until there is a vaccine? Specifically, which/what type of lockdown and where? All I'm seeing, hearing, and reading about is how all states are in some phase of reopening and lifting lockdown restrictions. I'm sure there are a few quotes out there that may be interpreted the way you've described, but why focus on the few instead of the overall picture?
https://business.financialpost.com/t...d-19-vaccine-3
""While not proven to be effective against the coronavirus, vaccines are seen by world leaders as the only real way to restart their stalled economies"."

You see things like this all over the place. Now I agree, the fact is there is a nationwide phased re-opening which should aide in avoiding early spikes.

But Michigan extended it's stay-at-home order and the data doesn't seem to support that.



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Do you not believe that if we had not "locked down" that there would've been even more infections and deaths by now? Deaths have decreased from a peak of about 2000 per day to about 1500 per day now. Lockdown or not, it's what people actually do that ultimately makes all the difference.
Only if we avoided the panic right at peak infection.


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post #97 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 07:03 PM
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An uptick in cases and deaths
What uptick? There's a very very slight increase in a handful of states.
https://www.axios.com/state-by-state...db7a7bce7.html

You'll have a better time getting people to practive non-pharmaceutical interventions with honest information.

Say, look, it's working, where masks, keep distance, clean things, take care of yourself, talk to a doctor/nutritionist about supplements(D/C/Zinc+ionophore/CBD oil, etc.). Prevent this from happening again.





Look at this one, figure that confirmed cases is probably closer to 200,000 to 300,000.
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post #98 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 07:18 PM
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https://business.financialpost.com/t...d-19-vaccine-3
""While not proven to be effective against the coronavirus, vaccines are seen by world leaders as the only real way to restart their stalled economies"."

You see things like this all over the place. Now I agree, the fact is there is a nationwide phased re-opening which should aide in avoiding early spikes.

But Michigan extended it's stay-at-home order and the data doesn't seem to support that.

Only if we avoided the panic right at peak infection.
Is that quote from that article a statement of fact or opinion? Seems like an opinion statement to me. Gotta filter out the noise. And no, I don't see statements like that all over the place, personally.


Has Michigan seen 14 days of reduced case counts (assuming adjusted for any changes in rates of testing)? Because that's CDC's guidance for moving to next phase of reopening. What guidance is Michigan using? Covid hospitalizations is a better metric to use for reopening, IMO.

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post #99 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 09:08 PM
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... Deaths have decreased from a peak of about 2000 per day to about 1500 per day now. Lockdown or not, it's what people actually do that ultimately makes all the difference. ...
It will take a few weeks before relaxation of the rules will be reflected in the daily death rate. Hoping for the best. But, realistically, I had to go to a Home Depot today to pick up a home repair item and it was pretty crowded with many people not wearing facemasks.
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post #100 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 09:58 PM
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It will take a few weeks before relaxation of the rules will be reflected in the daily death rate. Hoping for the best.
I haven't heard anything about outbreaks tied to all of the protests, have you?

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But, realistically, I had to go to a Home Depot today to pick up a home repair item and it was pretty crowded with many people not wearing facemasks.
This is the problem. We don't know who's contagious, and we know that masks are extremely effective at stopping coronavirus droplets and aerosols.
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post #101 of 204 Old 05-22-2020, 11:01 PM
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Where I live, schools and offices are to remain closed for the foreseeable future and we're being told it's likely to be this way until there is a vaccine. I keep seeing the same message (on the news) from politicians from other states too.

A lot of people, myself included, can't work unless there is school and daycare for our kids anyway. The idea of online school for 1 - 12 year olds is a joke.

I'm not sure where anyone is finding optimistic news. Please let me know (I could use some feel good news even if it's fake!).

There is certainly no comfort to be had from any recent data. Over 20 million Americans lost their jobs in April alone. Another 2.5 million lost their jobs last week. Unemployment is already twice what we saw from the 2008 financial crisis where it reached 10%. We're now at over 15% and this is more likely to be 20%. The government numbers only count those looking for a job which many people can't currently do. It also doesn't count those working part time because they can't find a full time job anymore. It's a disaster with no visible end.

This is just the beginning. There is a multiplier effect that we haven't even begun to see yet as people stop spending, stop paying their mortgage or rent, stop paying their bills etc. I'm not a fortune teller. This is just a predictable consequence of sudden mass unemployment.

Using a lockdown to slow the spread of the virus may have been somewhat beneficial if they had used the time for something useful such as implementing mass testing but they did not. Their approach is still "lets try to stay at home and pray for a cure while we play golf".

With all the money they'll waste on short-term bailouts, they could have had someone trained to do covid testing with all the necessary kit in every major workplace and school by now. It would have been a realistic goal using existing tech and resources. It would have given us a path back with a reliable timetable businesses could plan for. But, they did nothing.

If we are to believe that the lockdown slowed the spread of the virus and that this was necessary, we should be expecting a huge spike in new infections as they partially reopen parts of America. I wonder how they will react to that news. Will they go back to full lockdowns or admit it has all been a waste of time and that 40 million people lost their jobs for nothing... Same question if there is no spike...

This is the part where common sense gets lost. If the lockdown was necessary (or effective), why are we partially opening up now? What has changed? We sill don't have mass testing or a cure or a vaccine. No fewer people are infected. There is no logic to a "phased reopening". It's just going to cause additional damage for zero benefit.

If even one person still has the virus, we'll be wherever we would have been with no lockdown at all in short order. This thing all started with one person and spread worldwide in months. An infected person is still contagious for up to two weeks with no symptoms.. Apparently... 50% of people never show symptoms (while still infecting others).

Now it's suddenly OK to open a restaurant with outside seating but not inside and only in some states (despite open borders). It's OK to go to the grocery store and Home Depot and now for haircuts (in some states only) but not schools or offices. It's nonsense!

I happen to have the disadvantage of having a memory that records two or more months of data. We were told that our doctors apparently found that covid 19 is so infectious that medical staff were getting sick from just going into the room a carrier has coughed in. A dust mask will not protect against microscopic viral spores.

It's no surprise that people are not taking it seriously anymore.
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post #102 of 204 Old 05-23-2020, 12:46 AM
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If we are to believe that the lockdown slowed the spread of the virus and that this was necessary, we should be expecting a huge spike in new infections as they partially reopen parts of America. I wonder how they will react to that news. Will they go back to full lockdowns or admit it has all been a waste of time and that 40 million people lost their jobs for nothing... Same question if there is no spike... This is the part where common sense gets lost. If the lockdown was necessary (or effective), why are we partially opening up now? What has changed? We sill don't have mass testing or a cure or a vaccine. No fewer people are infected. There is no logic to a "phased reopening". It's just going to cause additional damage for zero benefit. If even one person still has the virus, we'll be wherever we would have been with no lockdown at all in short order. This thing all started with one person and spread worldwide in months. An infected person is still contagious for up to two weeks with no symptoms.. Apparently... 50% of people never show symptoms (while still infecting others). Now it's suddenly OK to open a restaurant with outside seating but not inside and only in some states (despite open borders). It's OK to go to the grocery store and Home Depot and now for haircuts (in some states only) but not schools or offices. It's nonsense!
Remember a portion of the population has developed antibodies so even though we may not hit an absolute herd immunity target, we have hit a point which will contribute to slowing further spread. Once the body produces the correct antibody its extremely effective and could provide 2-3 years of immunity and subsequent reinfection past that should produce the correct antibody again.
https://www.biospace.com/article/sor...ent-effective/
“We screened about a billion antibodies,” Ji said. “And we found about 100 of them to characterize further. From them we selected about a dozen that had neutralizing activity... Then, working with collaboration partners at the University of Texas Medical Branch, which has access to the live virus, they were able to screen the dozen antibodies for the most promising ones... We’re actually so impressed with the data,” Ji said. “One of the antibodies is so powerful that at a very low concentration it is able to 100% completely prevent infection or inhibit the infection. In our studies, not even one virus escaped from the antibody.”

People under 20 are significantly less likely to be infected making up only 5% of confirmed cases, so that group wont show in antibody tests.

These describe the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and indicates only 10% of cases are contagious
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0495_article
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...read-virus-all

I do agree though, are society is not setup to handle an event like this at all, and this is just a novel coronavirus with an IFR around 0.5-0.75%.

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We were told that our doctors apparently found that covid 19 is so infectious that medical staff were getting sick from just going into the room a carrier has coughed in. A dust mask will not protect against microscopic viral spores.
Where masks are effective is for the contagious, and with coronavirus just surgical masks are extremely effective.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
"We detected coronavirus in respiratory droplets and aerosols in 3 of 10 (30%) and 4 of 10 (40%) of the samples collected without face masks, respectively, but did not detect any virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols collected from participants wearing face masks, this difference was significant in aerosols and showed a trend toward reduced detection in respiratory droplets"
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post #103 of 204 Old 05-23-2020, 12:57 AM
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Think about this too, the virus spread unnoticed in NYC until almost 25% of the population was infected, then took a panic superspreading event to really start flooding the hospitals, and you can almost exclude the portion of the population under 20. To me that paints a picture of a second wave due to reopening or even in the fall being much less likely.
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post #104 of 204 Old 05-23-2020, 07:46 AM
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I haven't heard anything about outbreaks tied to all of the protests, have you? ...
I've only seen a few random mentions of protestors subsequently testing positive for COVID-19 like the leader of a protest group in North Carolina. The full impact would only be measurable if all the protestors volunteered that they contracted COVID-19 shortly after attending a protest or there was a robust contact tracing system in place. Many of the protestors in various states travel hundreds of miles to attend the protests and then scatter back to their hometowns. And the type of people protesting tend to also be privacy advocates who fear government tracking, so they aren't likely to share any data about themselves.
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post #105 of 204 Old 05-23-2020, 09:47 AM
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I'm not sure where anyone is finding optimistic news. Please let me know (I could use some feel good news even if it's fake!).
I feel like that too. I see a lot of feel good stories on the local and national news but they don't make me feel any better.
They just nauseate me now after so many weeks of it.
Mostly because they are not saying exactly how economically the country is going to fight to get things back to normal.

I keep thinking, what is the battle plan economy wise because it seems like in this situation their ought to be one.

I read the Spanish Flu way back lasted two years with a recrudescence in the winter. Then I think it said two more years after that of economic depression.

I thought since they are likely way more sophisticated about economic things now then back then. Smart moves would be pushed.

Even though I think testing is not realistic in the reopening. It did occur to me that it might be a great make work job program for the unemployed nationwide. Training and putting people to work doing testing, screening in every business and public place.

I also think that most people are going to get it before any vaccine becomes widely available. Those things they apparently can only speed up so much. I figure everybody in charge knew that from the beginning too. They can only do what they can do to stop the spread of it. So like many people my big worry is the economy. I want me and everyone else working as fast as possible.

I sure wish I could see some good news stories about that stuff being done because unlike with the virus I do think the country has the power to push economic moves that will make things happen faster.

I feel like that little fly dude in that old movie saying "Help me, Help me I want to work now." lol

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post #106 of 204 Old 05-23-2020, 11:13 AM
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...It did occur to me that it might be a great make work job program for the unemployed nationwide. Training and putting people to work doing testing, screening in every business and public place...

CCC, WPA, Peace Corps are examples of gov't programs that could shape this mobilization. We're now stuck with those whose creativity is limited to seeing how far they could kick can down road.
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post #107 of 204 Old 05-23-2020, 10:35 PM
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We've had our first intoxication manslaughter charge since the bars opened back up Friday.

A 29-year-old man died Friday night after striking a truck driven by a suspected drunken driver who failed to yield, Dallas police say.

At about 8:20 p.m., the motorcyclist hit the left side of a Ford F-150 that did not yield the right of way from a stop at Ranchero Lane and Duncanville Road.

Alejandro Ortiz was ejected from the motorcycle and taken to a local hospital, where he died, police said.

The driver of the Ford, 60-year-old Bryan Howard, was found to be intoxicated and was arrested, police said.

Howard was being held in the Dallas County jail and faces an intoxication manslaughter charge. His bail has not been set.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/mo...olice/2375156/

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post #108 of 204 Old 05-24-2020, 03:45 AM
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Well finally! Since easing restrictions, it looks like things are finally getting back to normal.
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The reduced traffic fatality rate was one of the few bright spots of stay at home orders.
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Other than empty roadways becoming the Autobahn for idiots.
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post #111 of 204 Old 05-24-2020, 08:52 AM
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I'm surprised there's not more coverage of the sti-1499 antibody and its development as both a cure and a preventative. It sounded extremely promising. (Anyone can google sti-1499 antibody to read up on it).

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Just be sure to search for STI-1499 and not ST-1499.

I think it was briefly discussed here a week or two ago when it was first announced.
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post #113 of 204 Old 05-24-2020, 10:19 AM
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I'm surprised there's not more coverage of the st-1499 antibody and its development as both a cure and a preventative. It sounded extremely promising. (Anyone can google st-1499 antibody to read up on it).
Remember they analyzed antibodies from recovered sars2 patients, the human body made that antibody, and similar antibodies from recovered sars1 patients provided 2-3 years of immunity.
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Originally Posted by markmon1 View Post
I'm surprised there's not more coverage of the st-1499 antibody and its development as both a cure and a preventative. It sounded extremely promising. (Anyone can google st-1499 antibody to read up on it).
I wonder which antibodies were produced by Moderna's mRNA vaccine. I wonder if this is one of them. I don't think they released all the details. I've read that all participants in the trial developed antibodies as with a natural infection. And there were 2 types of antibodies developed, one type being neutralizing antibody. Amount of antibodies produced had a direct relationship to amount/dosage of vaccine given. Only minor side effects, too, so far.

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post #115 of 204 Old 05-24-2020, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by no1special View Post
I wonder which antibodies were produced by Moderna's mRNA vaccine. I wonder if this is one of them. I don't think they released all the details. I've read that all participants in the trial developed antibodies as with a natural infection. And there were 2 types of antibodies developed, one type being neutralizing antibody. Amount of antibodies produced had a direct relationship to amount/dosage of vaccine given. Only minor side effects, too, so far.
If I remember correctly the mRNA vaccine developed binding antibodies in low dose and neutralizing antibodies in high doesn but one of the high dose patients had a severe reaction.

AstraZenecas(oxford) vaccine resulted in infections.

Heres an adenovirus vaccine out of China published in the Lancet.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...208-3/fulltext
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post #116 of 204 Old 05-25-2020, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Greyimporter View Post
....I'm not sure where anyone is finding optimistic news. Please let me know (I could use some feel good news even if it's fake!)....
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Originally Posted by hsungpic View Post
I feel like that too. I see a lot of feel good stories on the local and national news but they don't make me feel any better.
They just nauseate me now after so many weeks of it....
Good News Network to the rescue, with heaping helpings of power-of-positive-thinking.

Good luck, have fun, stay safe.

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post #117 of 204 Old 05-25-2020, 05:34 PM
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It's funny. The same people that were complaining about mainstream media talking about nothing but death and overhyping to scare people are the same ones now that are complaining when the same mainstream news is talking about opening up and reporting "feel good" stories. So bad news is bad and good news is bad, too. Go figure.
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post #118 of 204 Old 05-25-2020, 06:10 PM
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post #119 of 204 Old 05-26-2020, 11:28 AM
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I bought 1 share of REGN -- that'll probably be $ down the drain. I wish I bought SNY when it was tanking, but my "morality" wouldn't allow -- I'm a fool, lol.
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post #120 of 204 Old 05-26-2020, 12:31 PM
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I bought 1 share of REGN -- that'll probably be $ down the drain. I wish I bought SNY when it was tanking, but my "morality" wouldn't allow -- I'm a fool, lol.

Fool for following one's principles? Nah.
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