Originally Posted by Greyimporter
I have zero faith in any of these graphs or any analysis that comes from this "data". All they prove is that someone's intern learned how to use PowerPoint...
You mean Apache? Matlab? Excel? GitHub?
It's probably an unpaid volunteer position at some prestigious university and the real brains of the operation is just throwing it over the wall.
Deaths data is relatively solid. It's hard to miss a dead body.
The ratio of dead people to infected people is fairly consistent across populations.
I think we can learn a lot from counting the bodies, so I've written a spreadsheet with some simple functions to do the most elementary of analysis. This is my original contribution and not sanctioned by any official entity.
Here's an extrapolated gamma distribution curve fit to the per-capita death rate for the entire world as tabulated on Johns Hopkins Covid-19 GitHub on May 24th.
It looks like the full course of the pandemic is a year world-wide.
Here's Italy compared to the US.
It looks like the chaos continues for the western world through the end of June. We are all pretty much in sync with each other and each nation experiences about a 4 month long local pandemic.
Per capita deaths per 100,000 indicate the relative degree of penetration of the pandemic into the local population. I picked up this per capita metric from an article in The Intercept that shared the Imperial College of London Covid-19 Response Team's worst-case death rate simulation for the UK and the US.
Notice how far off the 'expert' modeled timing of the peak was. Either the pandemic had quietly spread farther than they thought, or it was far more contagious than they thought, or both.
My estimate of Italy's death rate is 50X their fair share of my estimate for the total world-wide deaths and reflects the early penetration with lack of mitigation. Their local pandemic resembles that worst-case deaths prediction from the Imperial College, so it is very much a real scenario that fortunately most nations have so far avoided, but it does also lead to questions of whether or not we will see those worst-case numbers materialize or maybe even exceed them in the long term if this bug goes endemic.
I'm wondering if Italy's situation would have been even more disastrous if they hadn't ever implemented any mitigation at all as indicated in that worst-case simulation. I think the experts dramatically underestimated this bug.
Here's the US compared to Sweden, with a time shift on the Sweden plot (but not stats) for clarity. These two plots are representative of the West in general, with approximately 5X share of death compared to the rest of the world (so far anyway).
Our social distancing and economic shutdown in the US is more effective than Sweden's voluntary/guideline approach, but barely. Both nations are at risk of a resurgence if the distancing measures are ended, but Sweden does illustrate that total shutdown of the economy isn't buying us much here in the US.
The population density of Sweden is lower than the US, so we should expect higher death rates than Sweden if the US adopts the Swedish approach to the pandemic (as we ultimately will out of necessity IMO). Also, the US has vast tracts of land that are mostly empty of people, so our density is clustered in cities rather than distributed evenly, and that's another factor that makes us more vulnerable.
The 'share of death' metric that I developed is a straight ratio of the per-capita national deaths divided by the per-capita world deaths, as tallied in the cumulative gamma distributions that extrapolate into the future. It allows for direct evaluation of the relative effectiveness of local mitigation efforts.
The US has approximately 4X its share of deaths compared to the rest of the world, but before you go blaming Trump's incompetence and corruption for that, let me say that most western developed nations have similarly disproportionate share of deaths.
It likely has a lot to do with international air travel by wealthier nations IMO, so maybe the damage was already done by the time we began mitigating the spread. Could our response have been more timely and effective? Certainly, but that only indicates that the US has slipped in international standing to a similar level as Spain, Germany, and France. We are no longer #1
and no longer great but rather just sort of average among people like us.
Here's the US vs. South Korea that is close to China and got deadly serious about the pandemic early on. South Korea has a much higher population density than the US, but their early total lockdown and street sanitation with aggressive testing and contact tracing has made a tremendous difference in the spread of contagion and deaths. If every nation was South Korea, we could have extinguished Covid-19.
However, it also means that South Korea has a much lower herd immunity and is much more vulnerable to a resurgence once they reopen the economy. To maintain their status they have to stay in lockdown indefinitely, and they obviously can't do that. They are better positioned than a lot of us to benefit from any future developments in testing, tracing, treatment, and vaccination, because they have a higher percentage of survivors who would otherwise be dead. Is it worth the cost? I'm not weighing lives against the economy and it doesn't really make any difference what I think. Life will do what it does despite my hollering so I'm not judging.
I haven't looked at the regional data for the US yet.
I spent months already on the world-wide data.
I'm publishing an updated version of my spreadsheet on my GitHub repository once I've updated the curve fit coefficients for more nations. I just switched from the symmetrical Gaussian distribution to the one-sided gamma distribution this week to get a better fit to the data, but I haven't yet updated the coefficients for the many other nations that I've previously plotted with a Gaussian fit.
Extrapolating forward with a curve fit is my 'value added'. I think it is the best answer to the question of 'when' so far.
I haven't seen any other plots like mine. If anyone has some, please share. I'd rather take an expert opinion than create an amateur opinion. It's less work for me.
PM if you want the Covid-19 data GitHub from Johns Hopkins and mine too, or google it, I'm sure you can find it if you try.
Thanks to everyone for the fascinating conversation and invaluable links. AVSForum is my favorite hangout. Stay safe.