When does the Corona ( Covid-19 ) crisis end? - Page 6 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #151 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by fbov View Post
The only sign I see of a "panic superspreading event" might be better called "winter break."
The panic superspreading event would be the White House declaring a National Emergency on 03/13/2020, which flooded grocery stores, and the travel ban flooded airports.

There was an offseasonal peak of hospital visitations for influenza like illness in mid-march as well. And again, when testing restrictions were lifted March 4th in 1 week cases were showing in every county in Florida indicating the virus was widespread and had been spreading unchecked for months.



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post #152 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 01:20 PM
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As to when the crisis ends, here's what I find most disturbing. Axes are the same, but the right data set is 16 times the population.
https://www.avsforum.com/forum/attac...1&d=1590610960

The scientist in me says: the crisis continues until the Nation's Covid-19 case rate profile starts to look like New York's. The national curve is currently flat, and appears to have plateaued. There will be no peak, no relief from localized outbreaks while states are closed. I see most states opening blindly, expecting to live with the death toll they had while closed.

If this virus has taught anything, it's that such foolishness will be punished.

That same scientist is very thankful that New Yorkers have taken a different, rationally-developed path... And NYC is darn close to making the whole state open!!
https://forward.ny.gov//sites/g/file...-dashboard.png

Stay well,
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post #153 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by fbov View Post
As to when the crisis ends, here's what I find most disturbing. Axes are the same, but the right data set is 16 times the population.
https://www.avsforum.com/forum/attac...1&d=1590610960
It's possible the CDCs data is skewed as they are/were including antibody tests with confirmed cases.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/u...tests-cdc.html

There's also this graph from the CDC.
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post #154 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 02:05 PM
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"Coronavirus may never go away, even with a vaccine"

Quote:
“This virus is here to stay,” said Sarah Cobey, an epidemiologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago. “The question is, how do we live with it safely?”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...virus-endemic/

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post #155 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave in Green View Post
@bdht ,.... As for connecting dots, that often requires making assumptions. Connecting a set of dots in one way can point to scientifically sound conclusions whereas connecting the same set of dots in a different way can create a conspiracy theory.
We are a pattern-seeking species, wired to look for connections. And sometimes finding them even when they're not actually there.
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post #156 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 02:40 PM
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And sometimes finding them even when they're not actually there.
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/tru...uary-february/

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post #157 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 02:42 PM
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Again.

Fauci, however, expressed optimism about a vaccine that could be ready by November or December if "all the things fall in the right place."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/polit...ntv/index.html
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post #158 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 03:16 PM
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Right, a tiny percentage of the least outlandish theories do prove over time to have an element of truth. The purveyors of the most outlandish conspiracy theories count on that to get consideration from those who begin to doubt everything. Once lured down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole one's perception of reality becomes blurred and even the most outlandish theories seem to have a kernel of truth. Everyone is free to make a choice of whether or not they want to go there. It's getting to be a socially crowded place these days so if anyone decides to go there be sure to take a facemask.
How do we sort one from the other? I mean, I'd like to go with "probability that each individual condition is true, multiplied by probabilities of all other must-be-linked conditions" -- seems to make mathematical and logical sense. However, someone predisposed to think, say, Bill Gates is a satanist looking to infect you with a tracking chip via a vaccine simply because he's a satanist AND he's a satanist through association with a singular women (Marina Abramovic, who, some may agree, is also unlikely an actual satanist) gets a little stretched (for my liking anyway). However, to the person doing the stretching, the probability is 100%! Worse this is despite the probability that the technology exists to create an inject-able tracking chip (a "must-be-linked condition") is near 0% (today) -- and 0% multiplied by anything is 0%, so it pretty much matters not what Bill Gates and company "want to do", it is infeasible with current SOtA tech.

We have to fix this inability to think within the bounds of logic and reason. Sure, it's good to have crazy ideas, but assign them a small probability of truth and put in the work to increase it through actual facts and not speculation (or, at least assign the speculation similarly low probabilities so the logic works itself out appropriately). Assigning value to an idea through probability and continually refining that probability by collecting actual fact-based evidence (for or against) seems a good way forward. But, why is this so difficult for some?

Is it simply because we all have "different facts"? Maybe we simply assign different probabilities to the same underlying conditions? Maybe we just set up our decision trees (conditionals) so differently they can't be aligned? Or, most honestly, is it simply because the majority of folks couldn't conceive of a logical conditional statement and requisite decision tree to assign any probability to, preferring instead to simply default to "group-think"?

Honestly, I go with the latter. I don't want to say it's because people are stupid, though. I want to say it's because they were never taught how to think for themselves. Rather, they learned to memorize and indoctrinate themselves -- this is not thinking this is data retrieval! I'm of that generation, too.... If it weren't for my early immersion in computers and logic, I don't think I'd have the ability, either. Certainly the closest I came to learning it was my debate class, and that was an elective I took because I enjoyed arguing (ya think, lol).

Ah well...I suppose it doesn't matter. We're all doomed anyway, .
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post #159 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 03:17 PM
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I dont believe that the virus will be gone soon. Its going to take humanity another year to go back to the way it was. Im still praying for a miracle though. Ive been missing a lot of things that I used to do before this pandemic. Hope you guys are doing fine. Keep safe!
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post #160 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 04:41 PM
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post #161 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 05:40 PM
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I have zero faith in any of these graphs or any analysis that comes from this "data". All they prove is that someone's intern learned how to use PowerPoint.

We have no idea whatsoever how many people have the virus, how many recovered, how many died, how they got it, if masks were effective or anything like that. We know for a fact (one of the few undisputed truths) that only a tiny percentage of Americans have been tested. Given the novel nature of Covid 19, we have zero idea how to extrapolate the tiny amount of data we have.

Any notion that we're entering this gradual reopening of America in response to data and good science is a joke. Nothing has been achieved with the lockdown in terms of changing the virus dynamics now from where we were just before it started.

The reopening is only happening now in response to the public outcry over the financial disaster they caused and the freedoms they snatched without a solid legal basis. It's definitely 100% not because we beat the virus or temporarily flattened a curve or changed anything. I can make a pretty graph to show whatever you want. It won't make it any more true though.

It's just a painfully slow realization of something anyone with half a brain and average deductive reasoning skills news months ago. The lockdown was a bad idea with no chance of success. America does not have the ability in terms of geography, resources or authority to enforce a quarantine to the level necessary to beat a contagious disease. And that the average American was / is too poor to afford months or years without income.

If the aim was to reduce demand for beds in hospitals, I guess there's some cause to call it success. 40 million people just lost health insurance along with their jobs so now poor people will die at home instead of crowding hospitals. Yay us!
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post #162 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 06:02 PM
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As long as the MAGAts are in never ending fight mode against everything meant to help them, this will never go away. Social media is constantly lit up with this rare breed of conservative that demands their civil right to do whatever it is that they please, common sense and respect to others be damned. The spread of the virus is more than than just carelessness, it's a political tool that will backfire on those still thinking it's a hoax or that it will simply disappear because the weather is nice. You have to be somewhat aware of the state of our future when people are rapidly dying and there are still those demanding to go to the gym, get their precious hair cuts or whining about wearing a mask in public because it violated their civil rights. These are the people that are dooming us all. Education more than just a vaccine will end the pandemic and as we've seen already, education is not with us.
While you make a good point about some of the MAGA crowd not wanting to wear masks as solely a political statement and an FU to the libs, I'd like to think that they represent a small minority of those that won't wear masks. Then again, maybe I'm wrong.

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post #163 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 06:14 PM
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Pretty sure a bot started this thread...I have been seeing a lot of this behavior on various forums. Typical destabilization tactics.
If so, it didn't work. AVSForum is exceptionally civil! Pat yourselves on the back, everyone. Herd immunity

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Not to mention the ancient microbes that may be released with the rapid melting of the permafrost regions due to global warming.
Maybe there's biowarfare labs mining ice core samples for novel pathogens too.

http://www.sci-news.com/biology/ancient-viruses-bacteria-guliya-ice-cap-08074.html


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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post
''a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity to Covid-19 when approximately 60% of the population is immune.''
With an updated basic reproduction number of 5.7, that estimate may be worthless now. Maybe they got it wrong initially, or maybe the latest mutation sweeping the western world is more infectious.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number


It is twice as infectious as the common cold. Without an effective and mandatory vaccine it will probably become endemic and we are all likely to catch it eventually. How many of you have ever had a cold?

Here, try this experiment. Maximize the infectiousness ('5.0' is as high as it goes in the app), and minimize the impact of warm weather ('none' was seen in many nations).

Those conditions are consistent with what we know to be realistic today.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html


No matter where you set the intervention date (ranging from January 1st through October 27th in the app), no matter how long you set the length of intervention (maxes out at 90 days), no matter how high you set the intervention level (maxes out at aggressive, that would be total lockdown with full testing and contact tracing), there's still basically zero effect on the number of people who catch it or the overall death rate because as soon as the lockdown ends after 90 day max there's a resurgence.

Things get 'back to normal' once the majority of people have been infected and developed some immunity, and there's no guarantee how long that immunity lasts. Some people have already been infected twice after only a month, and even though this virus mutates relatively slowly, it is so infectious that it has millions of living incubators to experiment in.

Many experts have said that our only hope of 'returning to normal' is if/when an effective vaccine is produced.

My guess is that won't happen in time to prevent naturally acquired herd immunity from determining the ultimate outcome

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The scientist in me says: the crisis continues until the Nation's Covid-19 case rate profile starts to look like New York's.
The desk jockey in me says that much of the 'curve' seen in testing data reflects the gradual roll-out of testing, and not the actual infection rate.

I go by the death rates. Dead people are very easy to count.

Things your physics professor never taught you:

Karma is the fourth law of thermodynamics. Murphy is the fifth.
If you spent your retirement nest egg on those super-tweeters, you're too old to hear them anyway.
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post #164 of 440 Old 05-27-2020, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Greyimporter View Post
I have zero faith in any of these graphs or any analysis that comes from this "data". All they prove is that someone's intern learned how to use PowerPoint...
You mean Apache? Matlab? Excel? GitHub?

It's probably an unpaid volunteer position at some prestigious university and the real brains of the operation is just throwing it over the wall.

Deaths data is relatively solid. It's hard to miss a dead body.

The ratio of dead people to infected people is fairly consistent across populations.

I think we can learn a lot from counting the bodies, so I've written a spreadsheet with some simple functions to do the most elementary of analysis. This is my original contribution and not sanctioned by any official entity.

Here's an extrapolated gamma distribution curve fit to the per-capita death rate for the entire world as tabulated on Johns Hopkins Covid-19 GitHub on May 24th.



It looks like the full course of the pandemic is a year world-wide.



Here's Italy compared to the US.

It looks like the chaos continues for the western world through the end of June. We are all pretty much in sync with each other and each nation experiences about a 4 month long local pandemic.

Per capita deaths per 100,000 indicate the relative degree of penetration of the pandemic into the local population. I picked up this per capita metric from an article in The Intercept that shared the Imperial College of London Covid-19 Response Team's worst-case death rate simulation for the UK and the US.



Notice how far off the 'expert' modeled timing of the peak was. Either the pandemic had quietly spread farther than they thought, or it was far more contagious than they thought, or both.

My estimate of Italy's death rate is 50X their fair share of my estimate for the total world-wide deaths and reflects the early penetration with lack of mitigation. Their local pandemic resembles that worst-case deaths prediction from the Imperial College, so it is very much a real scenario that fortunately most nations have so far avoided, but it does also lead to questions of whether or not we will see those worst-case numbers materialize or maybe even exceed them in the long term if this bug goes endemic.

I'm wondering if Italy's situation would have been even more disastrous if they hadn't ever implemented any mitigation at all as indicated in that worst-case simulation. I think the experts dramatically underestimated this bug.



Here's the US compared to Sweden, with a time shift on the Sweden plot (but not stats) for clarity. These two plots are representative of the West in general, with approximately 5X share of death compared to the rest of the world (so far anyway).

Our social distancing and economic shutdown in the US is more effective than Sweden's voluntary/guideline approach, but barely. Both nations are at risk of a resurgence if the distancing measures are ended, but Sweden does illustrate that total shutdown of the economy isn't buying us much here in the US.

The population density of Sweden is lower than the US, so we should expect higher death rates than Sweden if the US adopts the Swedish approach to the pandemic (as we ultimately will out of necessity IMO). Also, the US has vast tracts of land that are mostly empty of people, so our density is clustered in cities rather than distributed evenly, and that's another factor that makes us more vulnerable.

The 'share of death' metric that I developed is a straight ratio of the per-capita national deaths divided by the per-capita world deaths, as tallied in the cumulative gamma distributions that extrapolate into the future. It allows for direct evaluation of the relative effectiveness of local mitigation efforts.

The US has approximately 4X its share of deaths compared to the rest of the world, but before you go blaming Trump's incompetence and corruption for that, let me say that most western developed nations have similarly disproportionate share of deaths.

It likely has a lot to do with international air travel by wealthier nations IMO, so maybe the damage was already done by the time we began mitigating the spread. Could our response have been more timely and effective? Certainly, but that only indicates that the US has slipped in international standing to a similar level as Spain, Germany, and France. We are no longer #1 and no longer great but rather just sort of average among people like us.



Here's the US vs. South Korea that is close to China and got deadly serious about the pandemic early on. South Korea has a much higher population density than the US, but their early total lockdown and street sanitation with aggressive testing and contact tracing has made a tremendous difference in the spread of contagion and deaths. If every nation was South Korea, we could have extinguished Covid-19.

However, it also means that South Korea has a much lower herd immunity and is much more vulnerable to a resurgence once they reopen the economy. To maintain their status they have to stay in lockdown indefinitely, and they obviously can't do that. They are better positioned than a lot of us to benefit from any future developments in testing, tracing, treatment, and vaccination, because they have a higher percentage of survivors who would otherwise be dead. Is it worth the cost? I'm not weighing lives against the economy and it doesn't really make any difference what I think. Life will do what it does despite my hollering so I'm not judging.

I haven't looked at the regional data for the US yet. I spent months already on the world-wide data.

I'm publishing an updated version of my spreadsheet on my GitHub repository once I've updated the curve fit coefficients for more nations. I just switched from the symmetrical Gaussian distribution to the one-sided gamma distribution this week to get a better fit to the data, but I haven't yet updated the coefficients for the many other nations that I've previously plotted with a Gaussian fit.

Extrapolating forward with a curve fit is my 'value added'. I think it is the best answer to the question of 'when' so far.

I haven't seen any other plots like mine. If anyone has some, please share. I'd rather take an expert opinion than create an amateur opinion. It's less work for me. PM if you want the Covid-19 data GitHub from Johns Hopkins and mine too, or google it, I'm sure you can find it if you try.

Thanks to everyone for the fascinating conversation and invaluable links. AVSForum is my favorite hangout. Stay safe.
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2020-05-24-deaths-per-100k-world2.png   2020-05-24-deaths-per-100k-us-italy.png   2020-05-24-deaths-per-100k-us-sweden.png   2020-05-24-deaths-per-100k-us-south-korea.png  
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post #165 of 440 Old 05-28-2020, 08:02 AM
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... With an updated basic reproduction number of 5.7, that estimate may be worthless now. Maybe they got it wrong initially, or maybe the latest mutation sweeping the western world is more infectious.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
...
I appreciate you including a link to your source. To be clear the source does not actually cite a specific basic reproduction number of 5.7 for COVID-19 but rather presents an estimated range of from 1.94-5.7 as quoted from various sources. The actual basic reproduction number has not yet been narrowed down to a specific number. Overall your post was filled with solid data and reasonable extrapolations, so a welcome addition to the discussion.
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post #166 of 440 Old 05-28-2020, 08:50 AM
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You mean Apache? Matlab? Excel? GitHub?
...

Good read.
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post #167 of 440 Old 05-28-2020, 11:27 AM
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I appreciate you including a link to your source. To be clear the source does not actually cite a specific basic reproduction number of 5.7 for COVID-19 but rather presents an estimated range of from 1.94-5.7 as quoted from various sources. The actual basic reproduction number has not yet been narrowed down to a specific number. Overall your post was filled with solid data and reasonable extrapolations, so a welcome addition to the discussion.
The number didn't just bounce around between experts but was rather revised upward over time, to my recollection anyway. I read some speculation that there may be differences between mutated strains and that the strain that infected the West might be more contagious than the strain in China.

That shift is possibly reflected in the difference in timing of the models versus the actual deaths. It is probably reflected in the New York Times app that doesn't encompass the full top end of the range of current estimates. That is the evidence I relied on in emphasizing the highest estimate.

If I've made mistakes in my assessment from memory I'll edit my post, but I don't have time to go back looking for evidence immediately. I've got domestic issues to attend to.

Acknowledging that the science is in flux and appreciating your clarification. All of the basic reproduction numbers in that chart are expressed as ranges because there are many factors involved, such as mutation of the bug, genetic susceptibility of the host population, and health condition of the host population.
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post #168 of 440 Old 05-28-2020, 01:25 PM
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@CherylJosie , there is currently no consensus in the medical community that COVID-19 has a specific basic reproduction number of 5.7 or that some strains are significantly more transmissible than others. There is still a lot of conflicting interpretation of data because we are still so early in studies of a previously unknown coronavirus. We non-medical folks can hardly make definitive claims about COVID-19 that the medical community is unable to make.
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post #169 of 440 Old 05-28-2020, 01:55 PM
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While I appreciate the graphs and data between countries, some of the comments made such as "Sweden does illustrate that total shutdown of the economy isn't buying us much here in the US" are debatable. There are too many factors and variables involved that were not accounted for to make such definitive statements.
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post #170 of 440 Old 05-30-2020, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Greyimporter View Post
I have zero faith in ....
... America does not have the ability... to enforce a quarantine to the level necessary to beat a contagious disease. ...
Yes, you have faith issues. I can only suggest learning science, so you can gain the skills to turn faith into reason.

America has that ability. New York has done it. Facts are there for those capable of understanding what numbers mean.
https://forward.ny.gov/regional-unpause-dashboard
And there's a process to make sure we don't regress. (criteria values not shown)
https://forward.ny.gov/early-warning...ring-dashboard

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Originally Posted by CherylJosie View Post
...much of the 'curve' seen in testing data reflects the gradual roll-out of testing, and not the actual infection rate.

I go by the death rates. Dead people are very easy to count.
Around here, many curves look the same. New hospitalizations today ~150 down from ~1500/day, deaths near 75 for 5th day, down from 799/day. The data is acting like we're beating it.

Stay well,
Frank

PS dead people are only easy to count after the dust settles, when you can compare 2020 to historical death rates and determine excess mortality. It's striking!
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post #171 of 440 Old 05-31-2020, 03:08 AM
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However, it also means that South Korea has a much lower herd immunity and is much more vulnerable to a resurgence once they reopen the economy. To maintain their status they have to stay in lockdown indefinitely, and they obviously can't do that. They are better positioned than a lot of us to benefit from any future developments in testing, tracing, treatment, and vaccination, because they have a higher percentage of survivors who would otherwise be dead. Is it worth the cost? I'm not weighing lives against the economy and it doesn't really make any difference what I think. Life will do what it does despite my hollering so I'm not judging.
SK was never locked down, it was containment by case and trace and high testing numbers alone that produced their amazing numbers.
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post #172 of 440 Old 05-31-2020, 03:21 AM
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With an updated basic reproduction number of 5.7, that estimate may be worthless now. Maybe they got it wrong initially, or maybe the latest mutation sweeping the western world is more infectious.



Things get 'back to normal' once the majority of people have been infected and developed some immunity, and there's no guarantee how long that immunity lasts. Some people have already been infected twice after only a month, and even though this virus mutates relatively slowly, it is so infectious that it has millions of living incubators to experiment in.



Wow. The R naught is ACTUALLY 2.1 to 2.7 when there are zero interventions. With social distancing this drops to R1 and combined with test and trace and masks presents as R0.3 to R0.7.
Nobody has been "infected twice". I know exactly what you are talking about these were people who re-tested positive BUT they were shedding inactive virus and WERE NOT re-infected.

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es...00000&bid=0030

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post #173 of 440 Old 05-31-2020, 03:28 AM
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heh I'm sorry that was kind of antagonistic. I'm kind of serious though.

Testing restrictions were lifted March 4th, and in 1 week cases were showing in every county in Florida indicating the virus had been spreading unchecked for months.

And the cronie capitalism is very real. The Federal government has been seizing PPE and medical equipment from states for months, and then sold it to several corporations recently created and without any contract bidding, only to sell back to the states in a bidding war! Even the site that is managing the bidding didnt have to bid or compete for the contract. Removing all watchdogs and oversight...

As far as I can tell the Federal government knew the virus was spreading throughout the country and had reached peak infection mid March, where they intentionally incited a panic by a national emergency declaration, overcrowding grocery and supply stores and means of travel, airports, etc. Creating a spike of infections and then enacting social distancing/lockdown orders to drag the spike out.

Now every other day some drug is touted in the media or Trump rolls out a Moderna exec, theres a nice stock bump, and then a sell off, over and over and over.

It all looks like an intentional operation or an event(lab leak) took place in late spring early summer 2019. Sure the most likely reality is a natural virus, ineptitude at governance, and oppurtunistic profiteering. Not much better though.
Do you not understand how exponential growth works? At a 4x exponent factor per week, the first month is 1, 4, 16, 64 cases. Nothing to report here. Next month 256, 1024, 4096, 16k cases but there's a 2 week lag before symptoms. So still nothing to report here. Month 3, 64k, 256k, 1 million cases, 4 million cases. A huge portion are asymptomatic or not serious to seek medical treatment, but now it's "oh crap we gotta lock things down". Figure 1/20th of cases get reported, that's not so out of line with the numbers we saw. So yes there'd be a huge lag and a few months before anyone thought to react to the virus then it would seem like all the sudden it came all at once. All that without any conspiracy theory needed.
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post #174 of 440 Old 05-31-2020, 03:32 AM
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Wasn't there some story going around last week regarding the CDC stating that it was unlikely that the virus was being spread by physical contact with surfaces, at least to any significant extent? I forgot where I saw or read that. I know it was retold to me a couple different times last week.

It may have been exactly what you've quoted here, but some people were interpreting the information more definitively, i.e., taking, "insufficient data" from this CDC update and inferring or extrapolating that the touching of surfaces was no longer being considered a significant enough cause for concern.
I work at a fairly large UPS hub(1000 employees) and almost no one wears masks, there isn't any real social distancing, although there is a certain amount of it due to how the hub works, and almost no one has gotten sick so far. Oh, yeah, we're also processing holiday amounts of packages every day.

So I'd have to say it's not really being passed by physical contact with surfaces. If it was, there'd be no way to hide all the people that would be getting sick at warehouses and transportation hubs.
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post #175 of 440 Old 05-31-2020, 03:39 AM
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The ratio of dead people to infected people is fairly consistent across populations.

I think we can learn a lot from counting the bodies, so I've written a spreadsheet with some simple functions to do the most elementary of analysis. This is my original contribution and not sanctioned by any official entity.

Here's an extrapolated gamma distribution curve fit to the per-capita death rate for the entire world as tabulated on Johns Hopkins Covid-19 GitHub on May 24th.
You cannot calculate a death rate as cases are still in progress. The dead bodies / all infected is by no means an accurate way to calculate that. For all you know, every current infection as of today will result exclusively in death or being cured. You can only calculate current deaths / current deaths + current recovered to calculate a death rate. Those are the cases that have ended. The others are still ongoing. Unfortunately, that's also extremely inaccurate because there's a large amount of people that have recovered without being counted because they had no symptoms or symptoms were too light to seek medical care.

Unfortunately, we will not have a way to calculate a death rate until we have large serology reports from large samples of the population.

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I work at a fairly large UPS hub(1000 employees) and almost no one wears masks, there isn't any real social distancing, although there is a certain amount of it due to how the hub works, and almost no one has gotten sick so far. Oh, yeah, we're also processing holiday amounts of packages every day.

So I'd have to say it's not really being passed by physical contact with surfaces. If it was, there'd be no way to hide all the people that would be getting sick at warehouses and transportation hubs.
Fomite transmission is low but still possible. Thanks for keeping the freight flowing and stay safe.
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post #177 of 440 Old 05-31-2020, 08:41 AM
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I work at a fairly large UPS hub(1000 employees) and almost no one wears masks, there isn't any real social distancing, although there is a certain amount of it due to how the hub works, and almost no one has gotten sick so far. ...
Sounds a lot like the meat processing plants. There was no problem until there was a problem. All it took was one superspreader to bring down each of the meat processing plants and turn rural counties in multiple states into COVID-19 hotspots. It's been reported that UPS workers are going to work sick for fear that calling off might cost them their jobs. Not wearing facemasks in an environment like that is just begging to create a new hotspot.
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post #178 of 440 Old 05-31-2020, 08:51 AM
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SK was never locked down ...
South Korea just began its second round of lockdown measures in Seoul:

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South Korea re-imposes some coronavirus restrictions after spike in new cases

Museums, parks, and art galleries will all be closed again from Friday for two weeks, with authorities struggling to identify transmission routes


South Korea has reimplemented strict lockdown measures in the capital Seoul following the biggest spike of new coronavirus infections in nearly two months.

Museums, parks, and art galleries will all be closed again from Friday for two weeks, health minister Park Neung-hoo said. Companies are being urged to reintroduce flexible working hours among other measures.

The move follows the biggest daily increase in coronavirus cases in 53 days, in a country that appeared to have brought the outbreak under control. The new lockdown will take effect in the capital’s metropolitan area, which is home to half of South Korea’s 51 million people. It will remain in place until June 14. ...
theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/south-korea-faces-return-to-coronavirus-restrictions-after-spike-in-new-cases
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It's not a FULL LOCKDOWN. Never was.
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post #180 of 440 Old 05-31-2020, 10:34 AM
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It's not a FULL LOCKDOWN. Never was.
Sure, more than other countries the South Korean government moved faster and the South Korean people cooperated more with extensive testing and contact tracing, so they only needed a partial lockdown employing some but not all of the measures that other countries used to make up for a lack of testing and contact tracing. The story I linked to above indicates that South Korea is not ruling out a stricter lockdown if the coronavirus infection rate starts peaking:

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... The KCDC’s director, Jeong Eun-kyeong, said the country may need to return to social distancing restrictions that were eased in April, which prompted large numbers of people to congregate at bars and restaurants.

Jeong warned that increased activity was making it more difficult for health workers to track transmissions. “The number of people or locations we have to trace are increasing geometrically,” she said. “We will do our best to trace contacts and implement preventive measures, but there’s a limit to what we can do.

“There is a need to maximise social distancing in areas where the virus is circulating, to force people to avoid public facilities and other crowded spaces.” ...
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