Originally Posted by coolgeek
I hope you're right about 3D
My main purpose of getting my own home cinema is to watch 3D movies... nothing gives me more enjoyment...
As for physical discs... i think the comparisons you make aren't going to apply. You're basically saying going from one physical media to another... this is a technological change... basically the same sort of thing that happened to the Horse Carriage once Ford started producing cars... it took just 12 years to wipe out all of horse carriages (save a few for tourists).
Similarly, look at what happened to Nokia? It took less than 5 years for non smart phones to disappear... (you can argue it's still around in 3rd world countries but that's besides the point).
So, will physical media still be around? Sure, but you'll see less and less titles.. and only the biggest blockbusters will even bother to release them.. because too small a sames number will just make it unprofitable.. and even then you'll see them do sloppy jobs.. they aren't going to hire expensive ppl to do a proper job of transfers, editing, adding new materials, specials, etc, etc...
Most movies will simply just go directly to streaming... or downloadable form...
BTW: You'll still have the high quality Blu-Ray format, but mostly it'll likely be a soft-copy.. which is probably better anyways...
But based on your logic, UHD BD should have never even launched. If the sky is falling as badly as you say with physical, they never
would have released the format in 2016 as they are looking at a long term strategy (with data forecasting streaming gains, etc.) and not something that will be dead in a couple of years. And here we are a couple of years later and the format grows. In addition, more is being added to the spec with UHD BD and once true rec 2020 comes out in several years, it will only reinforce the format. One huge factor holding back streaming is lack of bandwidth in a lot of areas around the country and costs of such as well.
Fewer titles? We are seeing MORE titles released all of the time on UHD BD. From what you're saying, we should have maybe 10 titles right now.
Most new releases now coming with a UHD BD release. I think someone said around 300 titles already? Surpassed my expectations from two years ago for sure. Matrix, Die Hard, 2001, Gladiator, catalogs coming this year among others that will be announced. We are still seeing even more titles released on BD. I've got the BD remastered 4K version of Silence of the Lambs coming next week. Not bad for a dead format. Paramount finally announced Up in Smoke, Cheech and Chong coming to BD. I've been waiting on that one for years and here we are finally.
Most studios are doing archiving with 4K to 8K or higher scanning on older titles, so quality is not going to be an issue. These are assets. Quality here is improving almost regularly with better scanning equipment at higher resolutions. Film restoration has advanced to the point where almost all of it can be done digitally as well (versus photochemically). Most catalog titles have turned out exceptionally well on UHD BD given the original source
Newer digitally filmed movies and the DI process makes it all almost a breeze to release high quality. Eventually, much of this will become 4K finishes (instead of 2K) as costs improve.