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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
100"+ class panels were first demonstrated at the CES 2013 and proclaimed there to appear (at exorbitant prices though) but not much information became available since. These panels are interesting as they show necessity of going beyond 1080p and challenge projectors. Technologically such panels do not seem to be challenging: they are just quadruples of current 2K panels. Whatever is produced in quadruples in the current plants can be adopted for the 100"+4K panels and thus one can easily see range of sizes possible to make: 4x50"=100", 4x55"=110", 4x60"=120", 4x65"=130". From this one can see that for the 100"+ panels no significant new investment is needed and in principle they can become affordable costing just multiples of their quarter-size ancestors if the manufacturing lots are organised suitably. Market for such panels may not be very small as they would cannibalize projector markets. Hence it seems the problem with the 100"+ panels would be mostly psychological and logistics. 100"+ would be perceived as gargantuan and difficult to install but these are not insurmountable issues if one recalls adoption of the displays which were previously thought as huge.


So let's start a thread on the 100"+ class panels anticipating their appearance and mentally preparing for their accommodation
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BTW, in the above there is assumption that 100"+ = LCD. One can speculate on panels build with another technology, e.g. OLED which would add possibility of curved implementations and could be very attractive at this size. At the moment however, flat LCD is the only realistic possibility.
 

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100"+ panels were demoed at CES 4-5 years ago, by the way. Sharp even built a few of those at, I believe, 108". Some went to people with too much money and a desire to just have them. Somewhere around half a million did the job...
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
On a historical note Panasonic produced reportedly 8 pieces of 152" plasma panels which were even 4K. But 4K plasma is a dino and 2K 100"+ LCD panel is a dodo. It is generally agreed that 100"+ LCD panel is obviously and naturally not 2K but 4K (and likely 8K in the future). Thus the 90" LCD TV available from Sharp looks like the biggest 2K species evolved before extinction due to the appearance of 4K.
 

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I'm not going to spend much more time on this but the 103" Panasonic has been an actual, orderable product for several years (at least since 2010).


It doesn't mean your basic points are wrong, but the 100" class is not new.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
That the 100"+ class is new is implied by the currently agreed viewpoint 4K is necessary for panels in this class. There won't be 2K panels in this class and this is important factor defining its exclusivity. Double-digit-sized panels may exist, at least for a while, in the 2K and 4K editions.


The main point is obviously when 100"+ panels will appear. I am not enthusiastic of rushing them in the style seen with the current 4K panels. They should have HDMI 2.0 support,finely zonable backlight and reasnable pricing.
 

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I think the issue becomes shipping, and then installation. These beasts would be so large and so heavy (relative to the size of the packaging) that a 3 man crew and special trucks/lifting gear (the 90" comes on a pallet) would be required. Imagine also the room needed to enter a home and get it set up. The "market" of buyers is now getting smaller, and we haven't even talked about price. People who can afford a 100+" display, would be easily swayed to buy a 4K or 8K projector and get it at 130+" on a screen.

I'm not saying I don't WISH that your idea would work out...I just don't ever see it happening. I would love the Sharp 90" and could easily get it into my house. The price tag makes me say no thanks (when a 4K isn't too much more). An 84" 4K would be sweet...but again the price. Can't do it for the $15-20,000. From a manufacturer stand-point, they look at what the market will buy, and what will best serve those buyers. I would think that the 100"+ market is so tiny in comparison to the 55-70" market that it just isn't worth the $$ in the eyes of the "bean-counters."
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by tlwiz1  /t/1482535/100-class-panels-technology-information-sightings-and-practice#post_23552154


I think the issue becomes shipping, and then installation. These beasts would be so large and so heavy (relative to the size of the packaging) that a 3 man crew and special trucks/lifting gear (the 90" comes on a pallet) would be required. Imagine also the room needed to enter a home and get it set up. The "market" of buyers is now getting smaller, and we haven't even talked about price. People who can afford a 100+" display, would be easily swayed to buy a 4K or 8K projector and get it at 130+" on a screen.

I'm not saying I don't WISH that your idea would work out...I just don't ever see it happening. I would love the Sharp 90" and could easily get it into my house. The price tag makes me say no thanks (when a 4K isn't too much more). An 84" 4K would be sweet...but again the price. Can't do it for the $15-20,000. From a manufacturer stand-point, they look at what the market will buy, and what will best serve those buyers. I would think that the 100"+ market is so tiny in comparison to the 55-70" market that it just isn't worth the $$ in the eyes of the "bean-counters."

I do not agree the market is tiny: 100"+ class would cannibalize large part of HT projector market and a here one can think even a 130" display is not impossible (though the market for it would be tiny. just as the number of people using 130" screens ).


Installation would simply break with traditional notion that real men do it alone. Even now installers are commonly doing Sharp 90" .


Now regarding the price, I see no reason why the price of a 100+ incher should be in the Rolls Royce category. Technically these displays do not require any new technology, just new projection masks for a single big 4K display instead of quadruples of smaller 2K. High prices of the current 4K displays are just introductory anomaly and should go down rather fast.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck  /t/1482535/100-class-panels-technology-information-sightings-and-practice#post_23552381


I do not agree the market is tiny: 100"+ class would cannibalize large part of HT projector market and a here one can think even a 130" display is not impossible (though the market for it would be tiny. just as the number of people using 130" screens ).


Installation would simply break with traditional notion that real men do it alone. Even now installers are commonly doing Sharp 90" .


Now regarding the price, I see no reason why the price of a 100+ incher should be in the Rolls Royce category. Technically these displays do not require any new technology, just new projection masks for a single big 4K display instead of quadruples of smaller 2K. High prices of the current 4K displays are just introductory anomaly and should go down rather fast.
I hope you are right, and I am wrong. I guess I'd agree the market isn't too small, but it sure isn't a mass market. These sizes/types of units would only be available at hi-line stores. Most buyers don't shop there because they think Costco is the place to buy after "testing" the unit at Best Buy. But again...I hope you are right.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by tlwiz1  /t/1482535/100-class-panels-technology-information-sightings-and-practice#post_23553122


I hope you are right, and I am wrong. I guess I'd agree the market isn't too small, but it sure isn't a mass market. These sizes/types of units would only be available at hi-line stores. Most buyers don't shop there because they think Costco is the place to buy after "testing" the unit at Best Buy. But again...I hope you are right.

What you say is the same people said years ago about 65", now 65" is everywhere.
 

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So you seriously think that those same people/number of people will want and purchase a 100+" panel. Never going to happen. You are comparing apples to oranges. The mass market is 55-65" for daily viewing. 100+" is for the enthusiast or home theater. I know tons of people with 55-65" panels and none of them woukd go bigger or buy another set.

My argument is that it doesn't make financial sense for companies to pursue this. Hell, they won't even make local-dimming sets in mass numbers. You really think they will make 100+" panels in large numbers? Who will buy them? I just don't see a large enough/justifiable market.
 

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Only 10% of the TV market is currently in the 50" and up category. Is that growing as a proportion? Yes, but far more slowly than most AVSers think.


We engaged in a lengthy discussion ~2 years about about whether the 70" category could become "mainstream" and I expressed a great deal of skepticism that it could reach 10%. Evidence seems to suggest that is the case. And while it's true that "65 inch is everywhere" I urge everyone to visit a Best Buy or Costco and do some SKU counting. There's a big difference between being "everywhere" and being the preferred model. Keep in mind, also, that the U.S. skews larger in display purchasing than any other market and will do so essentially forever.


It's a little fraught to guess exactly how big a tiny number will be, but considering the global TV market is a ~250 million unit universe, I suspect we can reasonably conclude that 100" panels will likely not reach 5 million units anytime in the next 10 years -- if ever. Thus far, 65"-and-up TVs are, I believe, not at that level and might be closer to 1% than 2%.
 
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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
There was no suggestion 100"+ class will be more than a small niche in the overall market. But there is basis to claim the 100"+ may become the new "65" in the sense 65" was once perceived as monster and very expensive - and the 65" is now part of every solid manufacturer line-up. A couple of factors are in favor of such claim:


- Perception of large display sizes have changed from restrictively puritanical to watch-it-like-net-porn


- Appearance of 4K boosts the 100"+ case

- Producing 100"+ 4K displays does not require huge investment

- Chinese Agent is showing significant interest in panel manufacturing which should greatly reduce prices

- If the 100"+ would start cannibalizing HT projectors the market would not be smaller than e.g. for 80", but bigger (provided prices are reasonable)
 

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If they manage to sell and it is profitable to sell 84" 4K TV for $15-20K like the Sony and LG and $39999 for the Samsung 4K with the stand, then it will be a marked for 100" 4K TV in the future.

The Sharp 90" HD TV goes for $10999.99. and if they sell that large size a 100" is not much larger and complicated to transport and deliver.


Looking at the reports here at AVS, it seems like Sony is selling quite a number of the 84", and my guess is that if Sony had a 100" 4K TV which only cost comparatively more than the 84", much of the 84" sales would have been eaten by the 100".

People that an afford such TVs usually like "big things" even if it is just for bragging rights. Then add the rather large marked for big TV sizes that are used for all kind of display purposes in hotels, companies and shops.


Would have been interesting to know how much more labour goes into making a 100" 4K TV compared to a 84" 4K TV, because it is certainly not reflected in the price difference.


Only price quoted for a last generation 100" 4K TV is the China Star, with a price of $300K and only made to order, which is the largest hinder for such size to hit the marked at the moment.

 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Such huge spread of prices of 84"@4K TVs (all based on LG panels?) indicates this is nascent market and companies try to make huge profits.

I do not see good reason why asymptotically the price of 84"@4K -> 4x42"@2K. Glass sheets are same, pixel pitch is same, just another mask and

no cutting of the glass into four pieces.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck  /t/1482535/100-class-panels-technology-information-sightings-and-practice#post_23557970


There was no suggestion 100"+ class will be more than a small niche in the overall market. But there is basis to claim the 100"+ may become the new "65" in the sense 65" was once perceived as monster and very expensive - and the 65" is now part of every solid manufacturer line-up. A couple of factors are in favor of such claim:


- Perception of large display sizes have changed from restrictively puritanical to watch-it-like-net-porn


- Appearance of 4K boosts the 100"+ case

- Producing 100"+ 4K displays does not require huge investment

- Chinese Agent is showing significant interest in panel manufacturing which should greatly reduce prices

- If the 100"+ would start cannibalizing HT projectors the market would not be smaller than e.g. for 80", but bigger (provided prices are reasonable)

I'll say it again....

I hope you're right.


I would LOVE to be able to buy a reasonably priced 100+" panel
 

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CSOT (China Star Optoelectronics Technology) is currently producing and selling a 110" 4K panel built in their Gen 8.5 fabs.


TCL, HiSense and Westinghouse are all selling built to order 4K TVs based on this panel:
http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/10/3862522/westinghouses-300000-dollar-custom-110-inch-4k-tv-isnt-for-everyone


Basically anyone with a Gen 8.5 fab can make a 110", Samsung showed one off at CES 2013:
http://reviews.cnet.com/flat-panel-tvs/samsung-110-inch-4k/4505-6482_7-35567550.html


Since yields are never 100% and demand for such displays is almost zero, it is simply way more economical to use those fabs to build 4 55" displays rather than a single 110" display.
 

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Demand at $300,000 is certainly almost zero. If they charged 2x the cost of 4 55" TVs, however, demand would be non-zero and the resulting sales would be accretive to the fab's earnings (given that yields on 55" panels are way closer to 100% than you might think).


I'd put the retail price of such a TV at $20,000. If you want to gouge the early adopters, you can go for $30,000. At $300,000, you are saying, "We don't really want to sell any of these."
 
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Discussion Starter · #19 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo  /t/1482535/100-class-panels-technology-information-sightings-and-practice#post_23561023


Demand at $300,000 is certainly almost zero. If they charged 2x the cost of 4 55" TVs, however, demand would be non-zero and the resulting sales would be accretive to the fab's earnings (given that yields on 55" panels are way closer to 100% than you might think). I'd put the retail price of such a TV at $20,000. If you want to gouge the early adopters, you can go for $30,000. At $300,000, you are saying, "We don't really want to sell any of these."

Not entirely so. You forget there are people for which 300 000 is like 300 for you. It is quite reasonable strategy for a company which produces exclusive product to charge exclusivity price for it. After they reach initial sales target of e.g. 10 and saturate this market segment they can move down.


Anyway, it would be fun to know just in case how the $300 000 order is made. One contacts them by email: Dear Comrades, Please send me your 110" display you were proudly showing at the Congress of the Invincible Communist Party, or what?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo  /t/1482535/100-class-panels-technology-information-sightings-and-practice#post_23556049


Only 10% of the TV market is currently in the 50" and up category. Is that growing as a proportion? Yes, but far more slowly than most AVSers think.
 

What constitutes a "market"?  Is it 10% of the number of TVs, or of total revenue, or of total profits?

 

If it's the number of TVs, then that 10% number is being swayed dramatically downward by a large number of people buying budget TVs of which both 1. the profit margin and 2. the total impact on the manufacturers, are maybe questionable.

 

I tend to think of where the dollars are (gross and net) with regard to market share, not with where the people or items themselves are.
 
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