Not to muddy the water too much, but it seem likely that computer based DTV reception could easily push the CEA number up by a few thousand. It's also worth noting that some current large screen computer monitors support HDTV signals and refresh rates. If these are added to the list of DTV capable displays the total sales figures would also extend higher.
While I'm on the subject of convergence technologies I think that it's really interesting that the recent sale of the WinTV-D card at J&R for $50 was a HUGE price break in terms of getting a device into the hands of the consumer that will actually receive HDTV. J&R sold out of their stock in only a few hours at that price, so it's clear that price is very sensitive component of the overall rate of adoption for DTV. To me it was just amazing that you could by a true HDTV receiver for $50. Add in a really cheap PC for another $300 and you have something that gets the job done for a surprisingly little amount of $$$.
Note that this card only outputs 480i, so it's not a true HDTV receiver in the full sense, but it does receive, RECORD, and decode all current HDTV formats. With the proper software it is possible to playback the recorded HDTV file stream in full resolution to using a very fast CPU and a Radeon based video card. Of course, it starts to get expensive when you need that kind of hardware to get true HDTV, but still less than buying a full HDTV and STB combination.
My overall point is that DTV sales figures will be harder to estimate than traditional analog tv sales. The convergence of TV and PC has been taking place for at least the past 10 years. DTV will see the complete integration of PC and TV. I would suggest that the CEA sales figures will have to be adjusted at some point to account for this symbiotic relationship.
[This message has been edited by JoeFloyd (edited 04-23-2001).]