[cheridave]

What do you think?


Flat-screen TVs are one of the hottest trends in consumer electronics. Yet despite their buzz and growing sales, prices remain stubbornly high. The futuristic sets are stuck at the same plateau where color televisions were in their early days a half century ago: Too costly for the masses.................

Why prices for flat TVs remain high!


Dave

 

[Woodrow]

and questions linger about whether these screens will wear out over time.


Typical assanine statement


Name me a display device that WON'T wear out over time.


Now, I'm probably ignorant as far as a lot of this stuff goes, but I thought these flat panels were cheaper to produce than say a 40in CRT. I thought the major problem was a bottleneck at the production level.


This is just my opinion, but I think until these companies go to ONLY producing flat screen sets, the prices won't drop as much as they could. I mean, sony is STILL paying to replace bad tubes in their CRT sets. Pioneer is still dealing with streaking issues on their RPTV's. Until they are able to solely focus on flat panel...we'll all be paying for them to "do it all".



edit:I guess I disagree with the article.


and spelling.

 

[ed2day]

While I'm not surprised that LCD is outselling plasma, I was surprised to read that LCD has 82% of the flat panel market, which leaves plasma with a mere 18%. I wonder how much of the LCD market is relatively small, inexpensive under-counter/bathroom type sales rather than "big screen" (say 30" in this case). Rogo?

 

[Mike52]

Quite the mark-up for that B&M chain. No wonder so many people buy from the internet.

 

[rogo]

In the 30"+ market plasma is outsell LCD by >20:1. In the 40"+ market is >500:1.


The 82% stat includes all screen sizes. In the 10", 12", 15", 17", 22", 26", etc. etc. class, 100% of the flat panel TVs are LCD.


Dumb stat. Tells you nothing.


Incidentally, "large size LCDs" refers to those of 10" and up in the industry analyst arena. It draws the distinction from those used in cell phones, PDA, etc. It does nothing to help us understand the TV market. however.

 

[Jet Champion]

It's pretty simple why prices are high--DEMAND! Even if the sets cost very little to produce as long as hundreds of millions of people WANT them they will stay high priced!


It always astounds me how people believe that Moore's law will hold sway with Video! It won't! Even as production is becoming greater and you would think that because of economy of scale that prices would drop--displays are getting more and more complex and better and this tends to offset price drops.


I'm not saying that prices will never drop--but they won't significantly drop until Joe Six Pack the moron switches over to a 90%ownership of High Definition probably purchased from Wal-Mart! Cheap Flat Panels using that reasoning should be here come 2010!


I'll let the same MBA know it all prognosticators tell you that I don't know what I'm talking about--they'll cite the SMALL price drops so far, WAX POETIC about new production plants and say cheap sets are right around the corner! I've heard that song and dance for the last 10 years.


When digital watches first came out they were $150--now you can get one for less than $5--now that's REAL PRICE DROP! I'll believe that flat panels are really getting cheaper when I can buy the worshiped and sacred 50-inch Fujitsu for $1999 at Wal-Mart! When will that happen oh learned economics scribes and Video display prophets?!

 

[Odnetnin256]

I recently read that LCD prices will drop steadily 73% per year, for the next 6 years. For example, this means that in 2010 you can buy a Sony 32" LCD for a mere $900. Today it costs $6,000. Thus, the 42" LCD can be found for about $2,000, rather than today's $13,000 price tag. And the 23" which is $2,500 today can be found for $380.

 

[Jet Champion]

It hasn't happened so far--why should it start happening now and progress at the same rate? Don't get me wrong--I believe everything will drop in price I just think the drops will be in small increments over a greater amount of time than most.

 

[theBike45]

This is why I bought a Walmart 27 inch analog set today for less than

$200. I'm waiting for the technology to get further along, both in terms of cost and capability. It's not as though there were something worth watching coming over the cable lines or OTA signals.

 

[rogo]

"I recently read that LCD prices will drop steadily 73% per year, for the next 6 years. "


What you read is wrong.


No one believes the reduction will be anywhere near 73% per year, 25-30% is the consensus forecast, with some mfrs. believing it's closer to 15% per year.

 

[shifrbv]

Manufactures are well aware of the trends, and ripping good size profits.



They are also aware of percentage of population buying high price products...


In the few years, as high-end consumer demand satisfied, we will see dramatic cuts. Just like with DVD players ...

 

[wblynch]

Last year at this time, 50" plasmas were about $7000. Today you can get the same plasma for about $4500.


42" ED plasmas were over $7000 just 3 or 4 years ago and you can get one today that's even better for $2500.


At this rate, 42" ED's will be in the $1500 range by next summer.


I don't know what people are talking about when they say plasma prices are not coming down.

 

[newguy2]

Unless you think there is some kind of collusion between all of the manufacturers to fix prices, the only possible answer to the question is that manufacturing costs are high. These big displays are hard to make and the failure rate is still high, especially relative to other electronics. As a result, we pay not only for the panel that we buy, we also pay for the ones that fail QC testing.

 

[R Harkness]

Quote:

Originally posted by wblynch Last year at this time, 50" plasmas were about $7000. Today you can get the same plasma for about $4500. 42" ED plasmas were over $7000 just 3 or 4 years ago and you can get one today that's even better for $2500. At this rate, 42" ED's will be in the $1500 range by next summer. I don't know what people are talking about when they say plasma prices are not coming down.

I know what you mean. I bought my Panasonic 42" ED plasma when they were bordering on $12,000 Canadian in the stores a little over two years ago. When I see current prices I have to bite my quivering lip and hide my tears of astonishment.


(All the same, I'm still happy I bought one back then).

 

[cursor2000]

Quote:

quote by wblynch Last year at this time, 50" plasmas were about $7000. Today you can get the same plasma for about $4500.

I agree. I just bought the 50" consumer Panny for less than that on Thursday.


I've been watching the prices of these panels go down from month to month over the last 8 months - it's like watching my stock portfolio! It's amazing how the prices drop as new models are announced and new technologies are uncovered.


The fact that you can now buy a 50" Pioneer plasma at Costco tells me that Wal-Mart isn't far behind. I would expect to see 37" or 42" plasmas at Target or Wal-Mart in the next year, selling for less than $2000.


Alex

 

[wdrazek]

Quote:

Originally posted by rogo In the 30"+ market plasma is outsell LCD by >20:1. In the 40"+ market is >500:1. The 82% stat includes all screen sizes. In the 10", 12", 15", 17", 22", 26", etc. etc. class, 100% of the flat panel TVs are LCD.

Rogo,


As usual you are right on the spot with good information.


I think this says about 80% of the flat panel market is >30". Any idea about their 30-40" market shares? That is the place where there appears to be overlap of any significance. I would guess 10:1 or maybe less but that's just speculation.


Best,

Wayne

 

[wdrazek]

Quote:

Originally posted by cursor2000 I've been watching the prices of these panels go down from month to month over the last 8 months - it's like watching my stock portfolio! I would expect to see 37" or 42" plasmas at Target or Wal-Mart in the next year, selling for less than $2000. Alex

There are already 42" ED plasma's popping up for under $2500, and Best Buy this week ran a 50" HD Sampo for under $4k. Prices are seriously falling but a lot of people don't appear to realize it yet.

 

[Joe Murphy Jr]

Sorry theBike45, but I'm in a mood:


>>>This is why I bought a Walmart 27 inch analog set today for less than $200.I'm waiting for the technology to get further along, both in terms of cost and capability.

 

[a.macree]

Quote:

Originally posted by wblynch ...At this rate, 42" ED's will be in the $1500 range by next summer....

Um. With all due respect, I believe you to be brazenly optimistic regarding this matter.

(But I've been wrong before, sometimes...).



AMc


[EDITED:Non-Constructive Statements Removed]

 

[rogo]

Wayne -- My guess is that in the 30-40" range, LCD is outselling plasma by a small margin -- in the U.S. at least. There are more LCD SKUs, including some bargain-basement off-brands.


That said, in the major-brand category, I'd guess that plasmas still outsell LCDs. The 37" Panasonic plasma is a steal, price-wise, compared to the 37" Sharp LCD. And there is also now a 37" Sony plasma to go along with Sony and Hitachi (and Philips?!?) at 32".


In LCD, there are major-brand SKUs from Sharp, Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba, Mitsubishi and Samsung, but nearly all of those are $4000 and up at retail.


Anyway, if I'm making plasma displays, I've seen the writing on the wall for a long while... I have two choices --> Either learn to make the sub-40" displays a lot more cheaply or ultimately cede that market. This year, the LCD pricing picture is speculated not to improve much, so we won't even really see the answer until next year.


EDIT: It looks like Hitachi -- which makes plasma glass -- is replacing its 32" flat panel with an LCD in next year's product line (the one that starts arriving later this year). Perhaps this year we learn that plasma is not competitive enough down there? That said, next-generation mfg. may change the equation one again.


I have long believed that the most common TV of the HD generation is going to be a 30-32" LCD. That will be the most likely living-room purchase, the way a ~27" CRT is these days. Obviously, home-theater aficionados will find ways to afford something larger.