Our native mobile app has a new name: Fora Communities. Learn more.

Analyst Comment: D* HD Programming likely to exceed E* & rest of cable

1714 Views 33 Replies 17 Participants Last post by guffy1, May 18, 2006

tec1271

Discussion Starter · May 17, 2006

Now before you get your panties in an uproar - this is just an Analyst comment and thought it might be interesting to share. Not that it does us any good right now.....

http://www.forbes.com/2006/05/17/ech...rtner=yahootix

EchoStar In Danger Of Losing Share To DirecTV

Mary Crane, 05.17.06, 9:45 AM ET

Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne downgraded his rating on shares of EchoStar Communications to "equal weight" from "overweight," citing the growing threat DirecTV poses to EchoStar's DISH satellite television network.

"We continue to believe that EchoStar is well-positioned for high-definition programming expansion," Swinburne wrote in a note to investors Tuesday.

The analyst added that EchoStar has a defendable subscriber base as the price leader in the market, and has a management team that focuses on the long term.

Even though shares of both EchoStar (nasdaq: DISH - news - people ) and DirecTV (nyse: DTV - news - people ) have outperformed in an increasingly competitive industry, Swinburne said further upside from EchoStar's fundamental performance alone will likely be limited to 5% to 10%.

The analyst lowered his price target on EchoStar to $33 from $36, reflecting rising year-over-year churn levels at DISH that could result in a deceleration of net customer growth and, in turn, revenue growth.

Swinburne said DirecTV's ramp to meaningful free cash flow in 2008 is less risky than EchoStar's DISH network, given DirecTV's clearer capital spending plan.

And, DirecTV's high-definition program offerings will likely exceed EchoStar's and the rest of the cable industry, giving it a competitive advantage that could be used to drive pricing power, according to the analyst.

Morgan Stanley currently rates DirecTV at "overweight."

See less See more

Status: Not open for further replies.

1 - 20 of 34 Posts

enoree

· #2 · May 17, 2006

He must have called a D* CSR and asked about their HD offerings and was told150 HD chan. by the end of the year.

ScoBuck

· #3 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by enoree
He must have called a D* CSR and asked about their HD offerings and was told150 HD chan. by the end of the year.

More likely he is 100% right-on. I would wager that this is on the heels of the latest DirecTV earnings call last week. Like it or not, believe it or not, agree with it or not - DirecTV has more than any other provider that I have read anything on - at least shared with the public its general plan to provide HD locals to the entire US by end of '07, and has the satellites needed for it ALREADY in the air and operational. It also has the 2 HD National birds getting ready to launch (D10 in 1st Q of '07).

I cannot seem to find any announcements by DISH that are even remotely similar to this is how they would be able to provide needed bandwidth for the same amount of HD programming.

I have tried repeatedly to get info from my local cable company (cablevision), they do not give ANY OUT - so maybe you know something - I don't.

FIOS lacks having ANYWHERE near the level of sports programming I would want in order to get that service, and they also have not stated their ongoing HD national plans.

For all the copmplaints about D*, I think they are the ones showing the most.

See less See more

steverobertson

· #4 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by enoree
He must have called a D* CSR and asked about their HD offerings and was told150 HD chan. by the end of the year.

LOL that is great

keeper

· #5 · May 17, 2006

E* and cable have plenty of time to plan for this if it happens. With hdlite they probably will exceed everyone else. They will pack as many channels as they can in with little worry about pq.

keeper

· #6 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScoBuck
More likely he is 100% right-on. I would wager that this is on the heels of the latest DirecTV earnings call last week. Like it or not, believe it or not, agree with it or not - DirecTV has more than any other provider that I have read anything on - at least shared with the public its general plan to provide HD locals to the entire US by end of '07, and has the satellites needed for it ALREADY in the air and operational. It also has the 2 HD National birds getting ready to launch (D10 in 1st Q of '07).

I cannot seem to find any announcements by DISH that are even remotely similar to this is how they would be able to provide needed bandwidth for the same amount of HD programming.

I have tried repeatedly to get info from my local cable company (cablevision), they do not give ANY OUT - so maybe you know something - I don't.

FIOS lacks having ANYWHERE near the level of sports programming I would want in order to get that service, and they also have not stated their ongoing HD national plans.

For all the copmplaints about D*, I think they are the ones showing the most.

You remind me of myself a few years ago.

See less See more

R11

· #7 · May 17, 2006

Yes, D* will have a lot of capacity for HD channels in another year or so. But the only thing that matters to me is what their attitude about PQ is. They could have twice as many HD channels as anybody else, but if the PQ remains bad it's just moot to me. Of course there's a lot of non-critical viewers who only care about a big bundle of channels, but D* has the opportunity coming up to get back to their roots with solid PQ. I guess we'll see if they want to regain their long lost reputation for providing quality pictures, or simply remain just another half-ass TV provider.

ron

Audiguy3

· #8 · May 17, 2006

and don't forget that any Charlies earnings could be lost to the multiple lawsuits they seem to attact - from TiVo to sexual.

Reggie

guffy1

· #9 · May 17, 2006

Yep, I believe that D* will definately have the most HD(Lite) channels at some point in 2007. No doubt in my mind..

I will never pay them for anything more than Seleccion and the MLBEI package though if it continues to look like it does today..

I totally believe in that analysts report though...Come 2007 D* is going to kick ass and take names as as far as HD(Lite) goes..Joe Six Pack and co. will eat that crap up like a char broiled chuck steak smothered in Velvetta

ScoBuck

· #10 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by keeper
You remind me of myself a few years ago.

care to explain?

ScoBuck

· #11 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by R11
Yes, D* will have a lot of capacity for HD channels in another year or so. But the only thing that matters to me is what their attitude about PQ is. They could have twice as many HD channels as anybody else, but if the PQ remains bad it's just moot to me. Of course there's a lot of non-critical viewers who only care about a big bundle of channels, but D* has the opportunity coming up to get back to their roots with solid PQ. I guess we'll see if they want to regain their long lost reputation for providing quality pictures, or simply remain just another half-ass TV provider.

ron

I hope they step up to the plate!

guffy1

· #12 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScoBuck
I hope they step up to the plate!

They wont...

mitoca

· #13 · May 17, 2006

The important point here is that an analyst is actually paying attention to HD. Up to now, HD wasn't even a blip on any of the provider's radar as far as earnings go.

I also totally agree with the previous sentiment, D* must use their expanded bandwidth to bring back premium PQ. It's gotten to the point where I can sometimes not tell whether a show is in HD or not, which is a definite problem that must be fixed! The TNT basketball games are an excellent example, though I've heard the PQ isn't great with other providers either.

lynesjc

· #14 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by guffy1
Joe Six Pack and co. will eat that crap up like a char broiled chuck steak smothered in Velvetta

Quote:

Originally Posted by Homer Simpson
Yummm...Velvetta...

RPowers

· #15 · May 17, 2006

And when D* starts broadcasting True HD again, let me know...

keeper

· #16 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by keeper
You remind me of myself a few years ago.

After all the crap D* has pulled over the years and some are still enthusiastic. I was at one time but I don't believe anything they say. We have been burned too many times. Is this supposed addition of 150 normal hd channels or 150 hdlite channels.

ScoBuck

· #17 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by keeper
After all the crap D* has pulled over the years and some are still enthusiastic. I was at one time but I don't believe anything they say. We have been burned too many times. Is this supposed addition of 150 normal hd channels or 150 hdlite channels.

Oh - ok. I guess I kind of understand how you feel. I was a Cablevision sub for 30 years - in the beginning it was reasonably priced, HBO was included at no additional cost, we had the home basketball and hockey games WITHOUT commercials (and they bragged about that fact), and of course lots more choices.

Well, lack of competition worked. They became overpriced and under serviced. Included channels became PREMIUM. The Dolans played games with new networks, etc. However, the sat companies couldn't provide the local channels, so I stayed. But 2 things happened - first locals became available, but the reason I switched - Cablevision did NOT put YES on, and I am a NYY fan big-time. It was a no-brainer to switch.

That all being said, I think enthusiastic might be incorrect. What I really believe (and have posted already) is that NONE of the choices has EVERYTHING I would want - but as I see it, DirecTV is going to be ahead of the curve on new technology.

For me the choice is 1) Cablevision - AND I WILL NEVER GO BACK; 2) DISH - and they STILL DON'T provide the YES network (that is truly hard to believe); 3) FIOS - not available where I live yet; or 4) DirecTV - it makes the most sense.

I am only tired of ALL of the NEGATIVE comments and posts.

See less See more

guffy1

· #18 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScoBuck
Oh - ok. I guess I kind of understand how you feel. I was a Cablevision sub for 30 years - in the beginning it was reasonably priced, HBO was included at no additional cost, we had the home basketball and hockey games WITHOUT commercials (and they bragged about that fact), and of course lots more choices.

Well, lack of competition worked. They became overpriced and under serviced. Included channels became PREMIUM. The Dolans played games with new networks, etc. However, the sat companies couldn't provide the local channels, so I stayed. But 2 things happened - first locals became available, but the reason I switched - Cablevision did NOT put YES on, and I am a NYY fan big-time. It was a no-brainer to switch.

That all being said, I think enthusiastic might be incorrect. What I really believe (and have posted already) is that NONE of the choices has EVERYTHING I would want - but as I see it, DirecTV is going to be ahead of the curve on new technology.

For me the choice is 1) Cablevision - AND I WILL NEVER GO BACK; 2) DISH - and they STILL DON'T provide the YES network (that is truly hard to believe); 3) FIOS - not available where I live yet; or 4) DirecTV - it makes the most sense.

I am only tired of ALL of the NEGATIVE comments and posts.

If youre tired of the negativity I would suggest you stop opening up topics regarding D* HD...Theres nothing positive to discuss right now, plain and simple...Just a suggestion

See less See more

ScoBuck

· #19 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by guffy1
If youre tired of the negativity I would suggest you stop opening up topics regarding D* HD...Theres nothing positive to discuss right now, plain and simple...Just a suggestion

Thanks - the other suggestion is for people to stop complaining all of the time.

guffy1

· #20 · May 17, 2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScoBuck
Thanks - the other suggestion is for people to stop complaining all of the time.

Thats not gonna happen..You know it, and I know it

IMO, my suggestion is way more viable and realistic...

1 - 20 of 34 Posts

Status: Not open for further replies.