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And now for the Marketing..

1248 Views 42 Replies 18 Participants Last post by  Issac Hunt
Hear Ye HD lovers,


For the sake of this thread, lets assume:


- Both formats will launch with same PQ (except maybe mpeg2 by sony)


- That BD will have more studios in its camp initially


- That BD-50 movies will be available by Nov 06 as will the PS3


- That Toshiba will launch cheaper 2G players in 2006


So, it comes down to the marketing folk to take over and push the numbers from 10-20K to the first million, then past LD territory and finally into mass-market.


What advantages can they tout? And which ones should they tout?



I think that BD will benefit from having multiple player designs, more brands and more models.



There is a category of AV consumer that has brand preferences for his DVD players, his TV, stereo etc.


BD will be able to sell to this kind of consumer more easily given that they will have quite a few more of the well-known CE brands selling their players.


JMO. Any other opinions?
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And one thing I just remembered.


The "Price is the End-all and Be-all" argument is a good one but it needs to be qualified.


As in


"The mass-market will be won by the format that provides the cheapest players, assuming that format can offer the content that people want to watch."



Not


"The mass-market will be won by the format that provides the cheapest players"
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Quote:
Originally Posted by What'sHD
And one thing I just remembered.


The "Price is the End-all and Be-all" argument is a good one but it needs to be qualified.


As in


"The mass-market will be won by the format that provides the cheapest players, assuming that format can offer the content that people want to watch."



Not


"The mass-market will be won by the format that provides the cheapest players"
Well it's clear that Toshiba decided to start at the bottom of the retail food chain with Walmart being a "first source" outlet for their product. Problem is, all of the product is being snapped up by early adopters as evidenced by the "Walmart sightings" thread in the HD-DVD section. How they are going to make money and entice other name brand companies into a "straight to bottom" of profit margins product line is beyond me. Maybe they hope to build enough format inertia and other companies will build dual format players so they can cash in on royalties that way, who knows.


But it's going to take a flood of HD-DVD product to overcome the flood of BD product set to hit in the next few months. It was pretty easy to fire the first shot in the "War", now the question is, can they go toe to toe with Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer ~ the whole BD army, when they fire back with a artillery barrage? ;)


b2b
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez
...now the question is, can they go toe to toe with Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer ~ the whole BD army, when they fire back with a artillery barrage? ;)


b2b
At $1000.00US PLUS price tag, their initial release of movies will be on SL 25GB BD that requires a very high bit rate MPEG2, which leaves very small room for audio tracks and extras. And if BD's MPEG2 video quality doesn't stand-up to HD-DVD's MPEG4 the consumers WILL NOT BUY IT. And you will see these companies signing up with Toshiba as did LG. So don't have your hopes up just yet or it will by a very disappointing for BD camp.


Time will tell.


...Angelo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angelo913
At $1000.00US PLUS price tag, their initial release of movies will be on SL 25GB BD that requires a very high bit rate MPEG2, which leaves very small room for audio tracks and extras. And if BD's MPEG2 video quality doesn't stand-up to HD-DVD's MPEG4 the consumers WILL NOT BUT IT. And you will see these companies signing up with Toshiba as did LG. So don't have your hopes up just yet or it will by a very disappointing for BD camp.


Time will tell.


...Angelo
Well actually all the HD-DVD titles so far have been encoded with VC-1. ;) And the $1000.00 price leaves lots of room for discounting. For most of the well monied AV types $500.00 for the Toshiba player is pocket change and whatever BD is will be almost be irrelevant to them. Warner hasn't announced if they plan on using VC-1 for BD like they did for HD-DVD. If they don't, that would be an ideal situation to compare the same content, BD using MPEG2 vs HD-DVD using VC-1.


b2b
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez
Well it's clear that Toshiba decided to start at the bottom of the retail food chain with Walmart being a "first source" outlet for their product. Problem is, all of the product is being snapped up by early adopters as evidenced by the "Walmart sightings" thread in the HD-DVD section. How they are going to make money and entice other name brand companies into a "straight to bottom" of profit margins product line is beyond me. Maybe they hope to build enough format inertia and other companies will build dual format players so they can cash in on royalties that way, who knows.



b2b
The thing I don't understand about this argument is that it fails to address the fact that the PS3 will be coming out at Walmarts as well. It should be much cheaper than what anyone else in the BD camp is prepared to match, and oh yeah, it will also be a game console and media hub besides just a BD player.


To put it differently, why would the HD-A1 keep companies from building HD DVD players, when the PS3 isn't preventing companies from building Blu-ray players? It would seem that the PS3 would have an even greater chilling effect.


I admit that your reasoning makes a good deal of sense. Yet, companies are still making BD players in spite of the upcoming PS3, which your argument wouldn't predict and is evidence that your argument may be flawed.


I think the lack of variety in HD DVD players must be due to some other source than the low pricing of the HD-A1. Perhaps they're waiting to make a high-end player, or don't want to commit yet. Honestly, I don't have a real good guess why.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan
The thing I don't understand about this argument is that it fails to address the fact that the PS3 will be coming out at Walmarts as well. It should be much cheaper than what anyone else in the BD camp is prepared to match, and oh yeah, it will also be a game console and media hub besides just a BD player.


To put it differently, why would the HD-A1 keep companies from building HD DVD players, when the PS3 isn't preventing companies from building Blu-ray players? It would seem that the PS3 would have an even greater chilling effect.


I admit that your reasoning makes a good deal of sense. Yet, companies are still making BD players in spite of the upcoming PS3, which your argument wouldn't predict and is evidence that your argument may be flawed.


I think the lack of variety in HD DVD players must be due to some other source than the low pricing of the HD-A1. Perhaps they're waiting to make a high-end player, or don't want to commit yet. Honestly, I don't have a real good guess why.
I don't expect the PS3 to be the "end all, do all" BD player for everyones needs. Just HD across HDMI with audio pass through and SPDIF passing standard DD and DTS. Nothing fancy. I also expect the PS3 HD playback to be as cranky and slow as the HD-A1 is booting up. At best it is going to be a "freebie" feature that provides a large number of places for BD discs to find a home and generate media sales to keep Hollywood happy.


PS3 has backend margins in games and movies for Sony that Toshiba doesn't have with HD-DVD. Toshiba has to live on margins from their own player sales and royalties from other companies selling HD-DVD players too. No other people making players, no margins.


b2b
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez
But it's going to take a flood of HD-DVD product to overcome the flood of BD product set to hit in the next few months.
Now I know I'm supposed to "assume That BD-50 movies will be available by Nov 06".


But if there really is a large scale problem with BD-ROM 50 GB at present, then it is quite possible that some BD players released in "the flood of BD products" in the next few months will have a disclaimer on them that says they may not play all DL BD media. Even if one had deep pockets, would one buy such a unit? Yes I am referring to Alex's most recent posts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez
I don't expect the PS3 to be the "end all, do all" BD player for everyones needs.
But BD is a one trick pony - their whole mass market strategy is PS3. If the hoped for PS3 to BD movies conversion does not happen - BD will remain a high priced niche.
Quote:
Originally Posted by What'sHD
For the sake of this thread, lets assume:


- That BD-50 movies will be available by Nov 06 as will the PS3
Oh good - then we can test the BD-50 movies in the "the flood of BD product set to hit in the next few months", to see if they will work. ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez
Well actually all the HD-DVD titles so far have been encoded with VC-1. ;) And the $1000.00 price leaves lots of room for discounting. For most of the well monied AV types $500.00 for the Toshiba player is pocket change and whatever BD is will be almost be irrelevant to them. Warner hasn't announced if they plan on using VC-1 for BD like they did for HD-DVD. If they don't, that would be an ideal situation to compare the same content, BD using MPEG2 vs HD-DVD using VC-1.


b2b
I am also waiting to see what Warner will use. In the last Widescreen Magazine, the head of warner home division said that they have options and they plan on taking advantage of those options in terms of encoding.

I can't wait to check the differences in quality.

I will be that BR will look amazing. Even as good as the HD-DVD players.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel
Oh good - then we can test the BD-50 movies in the "the flood of BD product set to hit in the next few months", to see if they will work. ;)
I am genuinely concerned that the first gen BR players are going to have compatibilty issues with the 2007 slate of Dual Layer BR-50 gig disks. I just have that bad feeling in my stomach. This is one of the things that HD-DVD did right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paintit77
I am genuinely concerned that the first gen BR players are going to have compatibilty issues with the 2007 slate of Dual Layer BR-50 gig disks. I just have that bad feeling in my stomach. This is one of the things that HD-DVD did right.
The real question is - do you consider the PS3 to be a first gen BD player? If the PS3 has issues with DL BD-ROM, then DL BD-ROM ain't happening.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel
Oh good - then we can test the BD-50 movies in the "the flood of BD product set to hit in the next few months", to see if they will work. ;)
Oh yes. I was promised sometime back there will be 18 BD players/recorders on the shelfs of BB against one or two models of HD DVD players.
There are many things I'm "genuinely concerned" about with Blu-ray, but "can they play dual-layer ROM disks" is not one of them. This is entirely congruent to the DVD launch, and layer switch issues with DVD were minimal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by archibael
There are many things I'm "genuinely concerned" about with Blu-ray, but "can they play dual-layer ROM disks" is not one of them. This is entirely congruent to the DVD launch, and layer switch issues with DVD were minimal.
Though I wasn't looking for this post , I stumbled on it while looking for Alex's...You said:


"According to Alex's comments, launch players will not be required to be able to read dual-layer recordable disks." What makes you think that dual-layer ROM discs will be easier?
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj
But BD is a one trick pony - their whole mass market strategy is PS3. If the hoped for PS3 to BD movies conversion does not happen - BD will remain a high priced niche.
Try telling that to the marketing divisions of Phillips, Panasonic, Samsung, et al. PS3 is just one string to BD's bow, not the entire weapon. Right now, in contrast, the HD-A1 looks to be the only thing HD DVD has going for it.


With any luck Warners will encode their BD releases in AVC and we'll be able to compare the relative quality of the AVC and VC-1 codecs with the same movies. By that time I hope they've sorted out their audio issues!
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel
Though I wasn't looking for this post , I stumbled on it while looking for Alex's...You said:


"According to Alex's comments, launch players will not be required to be able to read dual-layer recordable disks." What makes you think that dual-layer ROM discs will be easier?
I'm assuming you've never tried to use recordable DVD media on a number of different DVD players over the years! Some play on one player, while others seem to play on virtually none. By contrast none of those DVD players have an issue with Dual layer DVD Rom. Compatibility for Dual layer BD ROM is written into the BD Rom spec, so these devices can't carry the Blu-ray badge without supporting it. By a strange coincidence I believe Alex posted a CED excerpt just today which mentioned this very point.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel
Though I wasn't looking for this post , I stumbled on it while looking for Alex's...You said:


"According to Alex's comments, launch players will not be required to be able to read dual-layer recordable disks." What makes you think that dual-layer ROM discs will be easier?
According to what Alex posted today
Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians
Egads...more last-minute conformance qualifiers for Blu-ray.


On April 12th at the JTC meeting, TEG3 (the guys in charge of the BD-ROM physical format) voted to add a last minute "editorial amendment" to the BD-ROM Book Part 1:

"A BD-ROM device that is in conformance with this System Description Part 1 shall be capable of reading from both single layer and dual layer BD-ROM Media."


On the plus side, conformant devices will be able to read SL and DL BD-ROM.


On the negative side, why the need to add such a silly statement to the spec? And why just now, mere days before devices go into manufacturing? Um, hasn't DL read capability been core to the spec since, oh, day one? Is this a legal escape clause wrought by cautious lawyers? Or a sign of potential DL read problems with certain devices that will be branded "non-conformant"?


Rushed testing is yielding some interesting proclamations from the BDA these days--first, DL BD-R/RE conformance was slipped, now DL BD-ROM conformance has oddly been amended.
So yea, it's "hair's on fire" over in BD land. Just like it was in HD-DVD land two weeks ago. ;)


b2b
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel
Oh good - then we can test the BD-50 movies in the "the flood of BD product set to hit in the next few months", to see if they will work. ;)
Considering this posting by Rio, Toshiba is going to have to do more than a "parachute drop" if they plan on winning the War.. ;)
Quote:
From Asahi Shinbun article:


- Toshiba shipped 1,000 HD DVD players (HD-XA1) initially in Japan, and shipped additional 500 players on April 26th.

- In US market, initial shipment was 6,000, they'll ship 5,000 players soon.


- Toshiba rep said "The impact of acutual shipment was big. Inquiry from Hollywood BD studio has started coming".


Does this "BD sudio" mean Disney, or LG, or both of them?
b2b
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