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Another "What If" thread...looking for feedback, not flames...

2988 Views 50 Replies 24 Participants Last post by  markrubin
What exactly would stop the HD Forum from killing off the current state of HDM and then starting over with hybrid discs? If they can force a stalemate and no adoption, do you think they could easily (assuming they can get the technology working) just hit the reset button?


Just looking for some thoughtful answers...this doesn't really seem that far-fetched to me, but then again, I am something of a space cadet
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Sounds interesting, but who are the "HD Forum?"

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Originally Posted by miata /forum/post/12914698


Sounds interesting, but who are the "HD Forum?"

Sorry HD DVD Forum...I forgot to un-abbreviate from my head to the screen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lockheede /forum/post/12914663


What exactly would stop the HD Forum from killing off the current state of HDM and then starting over with hybrid discs? If they can force a stalemate and no adoption, do you think they could easily (assuming they can get the technology working) just hit the reset button?


Just looking for some thoughtful answers...this doesn't really seem that far-fetched to me, but then again, I am something of a space cadet

Yeah that way twice as many people will of wasted their money. Good thinking.
What do you mean by "killing off the current state..."? Do you mean decreeing that all future releases be hybrid titles; do you mean re-branding HD DVD with a new trademark; do you mean selling hybrid discs in SD DVD packaging?

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Originally Posted by gnj1958 /forum/post/12914772


Yeah that way twice as many people will of wasted their money. Good thinking.

I have a nice HD DVD collection and I haven't wasted a penny!

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Originally Posted by gnj1958 /forum/post/12914772


Yeah that way twice as many people will of wasted their money. Good thinking.

Twice as many? The HD DVD owners would still have their players, and the high percentage of people who invested in a BD player made that happen with the purchase of a PS3, which will still function as the gaming machine it was designed to be. Plus, we are still talking about ~1% of sales here.
I assume the theory is that the third time's the charm?


But why would anyone do that? Seriously. We are on the brink of having a single format, the one with more capacity and a higher bitrate to boot. Why change course now? The time for that past some time ago, in my view.

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Originally Posted by lockheede /forum/post/12914798


Twice as many? The HD DVD owners would still have their players, and the high percentage of people who invested in a BD player made that happen with the purchase of a PS3, which will still function as the gaming machine it was designed to be. Plus, we are still talking about ~1% of sales here.

I think we are talking about the people who actually bought HD movies. In which case more than half are Blu-ray. I agree in spirit that those that purchased PS3s as game consoles or HD DVD players as DVD up-converters should be excluded.

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Originally Posted by spectator /forum/post/12914776


What do you mean by "killing off the current state..."? Do you mean decreeing that all future releases be hybrid titles; do you mean re-branding HD DVD with a new trademark; do you mean selling hybrid discs in SD DVD packaging?

Some people seem to think that Tosh & Co. could hunker down and derail HD in it's current incarnation if they don't start playing ball with Sony.


No decrees. All DVD players are HD-enabled (as well as unpconverting) and will work with whatever TV you have. They replace the discs with hybrids and just list the HD version of the movie as a "Bonus Feature". HD would just start showing up as consumers slowly replaced their players for whatever reasons.
Are we talking about DVD flippers here? Can you spell S-U-I-C-I-D-E? Been there, done that, did not work, long gone, everybody happy now.

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Originally Posted by JAC6 /forum/post/12914812


I assume the theory is that the third time's the charm?


But why would anyone do that? Seriously. We are on the brink of having a single format, the one with more capacity and a higher bitrate to boot. Why change course now? The time for that past some time ago, in my view.

Hey just speculation...


I think bitrate is lost on all but the AVSers and our ilk. J6P has no clue what Mbps is, nor do they care as long as whatever player they buy works with their TV. Look at Superbit for an example...when is the last time you saw one? Lack of sales will kill anything.


As for "Why change course", Toshiba doesn't seem to have gotten that memo as of yet.
Why is this better than a single format? And why would studios do it?


I think this mytical J6P wants a single HD format, not a third try with even more complications.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miata /forum/post/12914857


Are we talking about DVD flippers here? Can you spell S-U-I-C-I-D-E? Been there, done that, did not work, long gone, everybody happy now.

No flippers, PURE hybrid (as I mentioned before, IF they can get it working properly). I agree, the real-world concept of flippers was never realized (cost is WAY too high) but you have to admit the potential was great.

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Originally Posted by JAC6 /forum/post/12914859


Why is this better than a single format? And why would studios do it?


I think this mytical J6P wants a single HD format, not a third try with even more complications.

Again, this is based on the supposition that Toshiba digs in and crashes the whole system. This is what they would do AFTER the failure of mainstream HDM.

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Originally Posted by lockheede /forum/post/12914874


Again, this is based on the supposition that Toshiba digs in and crashes the whole system. This is what they would do AFTER the failure of mainstream HDM.

That's not in the OP. You've totally lost me. After the failure of HDM, the theory would be to try HDM again, only this time more expensive and technically-challenging?


This is wildly unrealistic, to be charitable.

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Originally Posted by JAC6 /forum/post/12914886

That's not in the OP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lockheede /forum/post/12914663

What exactly would stop the HD Forum from killing off the current state of HDM and then starting over with hybrid discs? If they can force a stalemate and no adoption, do you think they could easily (assuming they can get the technology working) just hit the reset button?

What's not in the OP?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JAC6 /forum/post/12914886


After the failure of HDM, the theory would be to try HDM again, only this time more expensive and technically-challenging?

The only place to go from SD is HD. Why would it be more expensive? The hardware is already in place to do all of this. The DVD lines still make DVDs when they don't produce HD DVDs. And costs of player production will just go down.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JAC6 /forum/post/12914886


This is wildly unrealistic, to be charitable.

I've read a lot worse in these forums!
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If Toshiba had the power to force a do-over on the HDM war, they'd have done so two years ago before the formats launched. In fact, what you're suggesting was actually tried, but the negotiations fell through.


I suspect it would be difficult for Toshiba to convince the rest of the DVD Forum steering committee (many of whom are BDA members) to do much at this point; their bargaining position is weak, and growing weaker by the day as more figures roll in from industry sources.


Bear in mind that the non-BDA members of the DVD Forum, aside from Toshiba, have little vested interest in HD DVD; they own minimal IPs and wouldn't see much revenue stream even if Toshiba managed to stage a comeback.


So no, at this point, I think it's highly unlikely that Toshiba (though the DVD Forum) could break the chessboard and start over - leaving aside the issue of general consumer disgust with the whole situation.
Lockheede,

You're assuming that the two remaining exclusive studios, Universal and Paramount, believe in Toshiba and HD-DVD enough that they would be willing to join hands and "jump off the bridge" together aren't you? It would take no less than that for your hypothetical situation to take place, since without at least one major studio's support (and I'm being wildly optimistic for the sake of argument here), HD-DVD has absolutely no power to derail HDM whatsoever. It would be like a spoiled child threatening to take his baseball bat and go home when he doesn't even own the bat in the first place.
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