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AppleTV off to slow start?
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Looking at the blog, they refer to another blog which refers to this article:
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles..._apple_tv.html
Without agreeing or disagreeing with the thesis, it should be noted the article was published less than four weeks after AppleTV went on sale and it ends up quoting a grand total of one store. This does not exactly provide overwhelming evidence for the thesis.
Also, as Apple has "officially" said they will be upgrading the software for AppleTV, it is probably much too early to come to any conclusions.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles..._apple_tv.html
Without agreeing or disagreeing with the thesis, it should be noted the article was published less than four weeks after AppleTV went on sale and it ends up quoting a grand total of one store. This does not exactly provide overwhelming evidence for the thesis.
Also, as Apple has "officially" said they will be upgrading the software for AppleTV, it is probably much too early to come to any conclusions.
I know I wouldn't use Best Buy as a gauge of sales. I went to a local BB looking for the Apple TV and couldn't find it. Tracked down a sales person and they took me to a darkened aisle and showed me an Apple TV still in the box inside of a slightly larger clear plastic box. Nothing else on display and nothing hooked up as a demo.
Can't sell what people can't find.
Buk
I know I wouldn't use Best Buy as a gauge of sales. I went to a local BB looking for the Apple TV and couldn't find it. Tracked down a sales person and they took me to a darkened aisle and showed me an Apple TV still in the box inside of a slightly larger clear plastic box. Nothing else on display and nothing hooked up as a demo.
Can't sell what people can't find.
Buk
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All good points. So does anyone have any actual figures on AppleTV sales?
Apple hasn't released any sales figures yet, and most likely won't until they have something positive to say. So I would say the longer it takes for Apple to say anything, the lower the sales are. Look to WWDC for Jobs to either trumpet the product, or ignore it in the limelight of the all-glorious iPhone (still a little miffed that a product that won't sell in my state gets to bump a product 4 months into the future [Leopard] that will). It may well be that features on the appleTV and iTS HD have been delayed because of work on the iPhone. It will be nice for Apple/Jobs to get over their obsession with the iPhone so the company can get onto other business.
My personal sense is that the early appleTV adopters have early adopted, and the wait and see'ers are still waiting and seeing--and will continue to do so until Apple does something to advance the platform with software updates, HD content, or some third party developers come up with some Apple sanctioned vertical integration. I think that the product is just barely treading water until Apple throws it a life ring. No iPod halo effect at play here.
We've had what, one commercial for the appleTV? And it hardly even shows anymore. Where's the promotion? How about a Mac/PC commercial: "Hi, I'm a Mac and I'm wirelessly connected to an appleTV (cute chick in the back waves and gestures towards an invisible screen, ala Vanna White), and it can do all sorts of cool things like play iPhoto slideshows and iMovies on your HDTV... [interruption by PC]... and I'm a PC and I can do that too, but I can't seem to find my wireless drivers for my game box" (as he bumbles around looking in his pockets for his drivers). Then the appleTV pipes up: "Hey I can help you out" (and she catches PC's attention to his utter astonishment). "I... I can see you..." he blurts out. "I can work with you too, and Mac at the same time" she says! Mac grins and says: "well, looks like you're good to go."
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As to the bloggers, with the dearth of news coming out of Apple, it has turned into a round robin of reporting, where the online bitbins are just reporting on each other--rumor built on rumor. It's one of the stupidest forms of journalism I've ever seen, albeit more and more common on the internet. It gives a whole 'nother notion to the concept of web-rings. Reader beware.
My personal sense is that the early appleTV adopters have early adopted, and the wait and see'ers are still waiting and seeing--and will continue to do so until Apple does something to advance the platform with software updates, HD content, or some third party developers come up with some Apple sanctioned vertical integration. I think that the product is just barely treading water until Apple throws it a life ring. No iPod halo effect at play here.
We've had what, one commercial for the appleTV? And it hardly even shows anymore. Where's the promotion? How about a Mac/PC commercial: "Hi, I'm a Mac and I'm wirelessly connected to an appleTV (cute chick in the back waves and gestures towards an invisible screen, ala Vanna White), and it can do all sorts of cool things like play iPhoto slideshows and iMovies on your HDTV... [interruption by PC]... and I'm a PC and I can do that too, but I can't seem to find my wireless drivers for my game box" (as he bumbles around looking in his pockets for his drivers). Then the appleTV pipes up: "Hey I can help you out" (and she catches PC's attention to his utter astonishment). "I... I can see you..." he blurts out. "I can work with you too, and Mac at the same time" she says! Mac grins and says: "well, looks like you're good to go."
As to the bloggers, with the dearth of news coming out of Apple, it has turned into a round robin of reporting, where the online bitbins are just reporting on each other--rumor built on rumor. It's one of the stupidest forms of journalism I've ever seen, albeit more and more common on the internet. It gives a whole 'nother notion to the concept of web-rings. Reader beware.
Well though out and expressed, wildrock. We touched on this briefly in another thread, that initial "report" was based on one doofus from a rumor site supposedly talking to a Best Buy employee in a single store, who said they got 3 aTVs in and hadn't sold any of them yet.
Talk about anecdotal.
There was this report of aTVs flying off the shelves in Canada:
http://www.itbusiness.ca/it/client/e...s.asp?id=43217
Which is interesting since I don't believe Canadians can download video from iTS.
The device got good initial buzz and reviews, and was initially listed as a top seller in the Apple online store. The question is, once all the early adopter/Apple fanboys queued up to place their orders, have subsequent sales sustained or declined? And we just don't know yet--Apple had a chance to mention something specific about sales during its 4/25 Q2 conference call but declined. I'm with wildrock here--if they had anything positive to say, they would have. My sense, and it's pure speculation, is that sales have dropped off precipitously and that's why Apple has so far declined to mention anything specific.
It's not just "can't sell what people can't find" it is also "can't sell what people don't feel they need" and "can't sell what people don't understand...you mean I have to pay $300 for a device whose real function is to play back what I BUY from iTS?"
I do remember reading a Piper Jaffray analyst had estimated sales of 2 million aTVs by the end of the year, and projected sales of 700,000 by June. We also know Apple has done its part trying to boost sales--like further said 1) they announced free software upgrades and features and 2) these things have been in Target and Costco and Best Buy for a couple of weeks, so they are being thrust out to the masses. There are pallets of aTVs in several Costcos near me, but the device itself is not actually set up and playing back content.
Not that that would actually help.
We've had reports from AVS folks who actually saw the setup in Apple stores--and if you have seen what iTS video content looks like firsthand there, as I have and as I know at least Ted has, you know it's drawing a lot of attention to the product: negative attention for how poor actual iTS shows look, especially compared to the clear and crisp aTV front end interface. Most folks in Apple stores, which usually are located in trendy affluent neighborhoods and upscale malls, know what HDTV looks like, they certainly know what digital cable and dvd looks like, and the iTS stuff pales. At this point I imagine the in-store setup hinders rather than helps.
Apple surely realizes this.
We also have observed that it's not an Amazon top seller, and it is no longer in the Apple online store top seller list.
And here's what at least some of us also suspect:
-the initial flurry of hacking will have little effect on actual sales, that's just not relevant to sales of a mainstream device to a mainstream audience;
-it's an underpowered, flawed device, rushed to market with way more "potential" than current promise delivered so far;
-appreciation of it is likely crippled not only by the lack of 720p content...which I know many of us are waiting for...but also by the less-than-dvd quality of material in the iTS;
-sales are likely also hindered by the fact that many of those predisposed to purchase an aTV ALREADY have a mini, and those holding off on a purchase of their first Intel mini KNOW an upgrade is right around the corner--it'd be foolish for anyone considering a mini not to wait for that revision before deciding between a mini or aTV;
-the Leopard delay I'm kind of torn on, I'm not sure whether that helps or hinders aTV sales in the short term. Any thoughts?
Talk about anecdotal.
There was this report of aTVs flying off the shelves in Canada:
http://www.itbusiness.ca/it/client/e...s.asp?id=43217
Which is interesting since I don't believe Canadians can download video from iTS.
The device got good initial buzz and reviews, and was initially listed as a top seller in the Apple online store. The question is, once all the early adopter/Apple fanboys queued up to place their orders, have subsequent sales sustained or declined? And we just don't know yet--Apple had a chance to mention something specific about sales during its 4/25 Q2 conference call but declined. I'm with wildrock here--if they had anything positive to say, they would have. My sense, and it's pure speculation, is that sales have dropped off precipitously and that's why Apple has so far declined to mention anything specific.
It's not just "can't sell what people can't find" it is also "can't sell what people don't feel they need" and "can't sell what people don't understand...you mean I have to pay $300 for a device whose real function is to play back what I BUY from iTS?"
I do remember reading a Piper Jaffray analyst had estimated sales of 2 million aTVs by the end of the year, and projected sales of 700,000 by June. We also know Apple has done its part trying to boost sales--like further said 1) they announced free software upgrades and features and 2) these things have been in Target and Costco and Best Buy for a couple of weeks, so they are being thrust out to the masses. There are pallets of aTVs in several Costcos near me, but the device itself is not actually set up and playing back content.
Not that that would actually help.
We've had reports from AVS folks who actually saw the setup in Apple stores--and if you have seen what iTS video content looks like firsthand there, as I have and as I know at least Ted has, you know it's drawing a lot of attention to the product: negative attention for how poor actual iTS shows look, especially compared to the clear and crisp aTV front end interface. Most folks in Apple stores, which usually are located in trendy affluent neighborhoods and upscale malls, know what HDTV looks like, they certainly know what digital cable and dvd looks like, and the iTS stuff pales. At this point I imagine the in-store setup hinders rather than helps.
Apple surely realizes this.
We also have observed that it's not an Amazon top seller, and it is no longer in the Apple online store top seller list.
And here's what at least some of us also suspect:
-the initial flurry of hacking will have little effect on actual sales, that's just not relevant to sales of a mainstream device to a mainstream audience;
-it's an underpowered, flawed device, rushed to market with way more "potential" than current promise delivered so far;
-appreciation of it is likely crippled not only by the lack of 720p content...which I know many of us are waiting for...but also by the less-than-dvd quality of material in the iTS;
-sales are likely also hindered by the fact that many of those predisposed to purchase an aTV ALREADY have a mini, and those holding off on a purchase of their first Intel mini KNOW an upgrade is right around the corner--it'd be foolish for anyone considering a mini not to wait for that revision before deciding between a mini or aTV;
-the Leopard delay I'm kind of torn on, I'm not sure whether that helps or hinders aTV sales in the short term. Any thoughts?
If HD content at the iTS is dependant on Leopard, for say HDCP at the OS level, then Leopard's delay could well negatively impact the appleTV in the short to mid-term, by people waiting until the product matures a bit and viable content is available.
Then the question becomes one of, will Tiger users be able to consume HD iTS content if it is somehow tied to the Leopard OS? Or is Apple developing a system of OS independant HD content protection? And as we wait for these questions to be answered, the appleTV sits on the store shelves. And the iPhone provides a distraction, a diversion, and an excuse.
If HD content at the iTS is dependant on Leopard, for say HDCP at the OS level, then Leopard's delay could well negatively impact the appleTV in the short to mid-term, by people waiting until the product matures a bit and viable content is available.
Then the question becomes one of, will Tiger users be able to consume HD iTS content if it is somehow tied to the Leopard OS? Or is Apple developing a system of OS independant HD content protection? And as we wait for these questions to be answered, the appleTV sits on the store shelves. And the iPhone provides a distraction, a diversion, and an excuse.
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HDCP has absolutely nothing to do with the OS. It is encryption between the display connection and the display.
Not to get into a tangential argument here, but in Vista, content protection had everything to do with the OS. There have been raging battles here about this topic. In a nutshell, Macs do not provide HDCP at this time (no HDMI or HDCP over DVI). Windows solved this problem in Vista by integrating content protection into the OS, with all of its downsides. How Apple chooses to implement HDCP and HD content protection is anybody's guess right now. Hence the prediction that it won't happen until Leopard is released.
Not to get into a tangential argument here, but in Vista, content protection had everything to do with the OS. There have been raging battles here about this topic. In a nutshell, Macs do not provide HDCP at this time (no HDMI or HDCP over DVI). Windows solved this problem in Vista by integrating content protection into the OS, with all of its downsides. How Apple chooses to implement HDCP and HD content protection is anybody's guess right now. Hence the prediction that it won't happen until Leopard is released.
yeah, many folks around AVS would probably disagree with you, that when you're talking about the graphics card in a Mac or PC decrypting and playing back HD-DVD or Blu-ray media, it will have much to do with the OS--and will be controlled by hardware, drivers AND playback software working together. Take something like BD+, how's that going to be supported if not in the OS?
Of course, for iTS 720p content, they could roll their own encryption, and in order for aTV to pass it methinks that's going to be heavily OS dependent as well, which I think was wildrock's ultimate point.
yeah, many folks around AVS would probably disagree with you, that when you're talking about the graphics card in a Mac or PC decrypting and playing back HD-DVD or Blu-ray media, it will have much to do with the OS--and will be controlled by hardware, drivers AND playback software working together. Take something like BD+, how's that going to be supported if not in the OS?
Of course, for iTS 720p content, they could roll their own encryption, and in order for aTV to pass it methinks that's going to be heavily OS dependent as well, which I think was wildrock's ultimate point.
I think the aTV will take off once you can download 720p movies from the iTunes Store on a rental model. There apparently have been hints that this is coming sooner rather than later (Apple Insider ran a blurb on this on Thursday). Right now, all I use my aTV for is streaming music from my G5 server; but I'd be first in line for 720p movie downloads (or even DVD quality downloads - so I don't have to take them back to the store) on a rental model.
John C.
John C.
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Assuming sales are down (no definitive evidence yet), I would agree it would be the lack of 720p content that is the root of the cause. What drove Ipod sales was the massive libraries of MP3s and the ease of moving audio off compact discs to the digital realm. As of yet this has not been implemented well or easily for video. The fact that AppleTV can't play my 300 DVDs, 100s of Xvids/Divx is what has kept me away from buying it. I'm not interested in being locked into iTs content. I'd buy a Mac Mini Pro in a second if they would simply release one (My definition of a Mac Mini Pro would be a beefier vid card, C2D processor and some more RAM).
Not sure with the sales figures of Apple TV. While the software concerning Apple TV such as DVD to Apple TV Converter + Apple TV Video Converter Suite, Mac DVD to Apple TV Converter and Mac Apple TV Converter sells quite well. Just from this situation, I guess that Apple TV must sell quite well too.
Not sure with the sales figures of Apple TV. While the software concerning Apple TV such as DVD to Apple TV Converter + Apple TV Video Converter Suite, Mac DVD to Apple TV Converter and Mac Apple TV Converter sells quite well. Just from this situation, I guess that Apple TV must sell quite well too.
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I think Apple were just fools not to include DVD, Divx, & XviD support on this thing. I understand they want to motivate people to buy from the iTunes music store but there is just no way in hell I am buying a device that is going to make me re-encode basically my entire collection, which is substantailly large. Just not gonna do it. I would buy one in a heartbeat if it supported those video formats and I know alot of other people that are in the same boat. Is it justthat they want to stay away from those formats due to the heavy piracy behind them or do they just not want to pay Divx and the DVD forum any money?
Actually it can play those files. http://wiki.awkwardtv.org/wiki/Main_Page
I had one and recently sold it. Great device, just not up to par for my liking in terms of the picture quality of the 720p output. There is some postptocessing going on there that is easily spotted on a projector screen. My HTPC with ffdshow and an nvidia 8500 provide better quality output.
I had one and recently sold it. Great device, just not up to par for my liking in terms of the picture quality of the 720p output. There is some postptocessing going on there that is easily spotted on a projector screen. My HTPC with ffdshow and an nvidia 8500 provide better quality output.
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I'm in complete agreement. It's like bringing out the Ipod without supporting MP3. I think they are so in bed with Hollywood right now that they are scared to support non-DRM (on the movie side) or non-Hollywood supported formats.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4x5_Photnly /forum/post/0
I think Apple were just fools not to include DVD, Divx, & XviD support on this thing. I understand they want to motivate people to buy from the iTunes music store but there is just no way in hell I am buying a device that is going to make me re-encode basically my entire collection, which is substantailly large. Just not gonna do it. I would buy one in a heartbeat if it supported those video formats and I know alot of other people that are in the same boat. Is it justthat they want to stay away from those formats due to the heavy piracy behind them or do they just not want to pay Divx and the DVD forum any money?
I'm in complete agreement. It's like bringing out the Ipod without supporting MP3. I think they are so in bed with Hollywood right now that they are scared to support non-DRM (on the movie side) or non-Hollywood supported formats.
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I agree completely about DVD (VIDEO_TS)/MPEG2.
On the other hand, to my knowledge (please correct me if I'm wrong), the ONLY purpose of Divx/XviD is pirated material. If people want to further compress their DVD collections or other video material, they can use MPEG4 or H.264 and will get better quality.
There was a very legitimate reason for mp3 in the early iPod era -- it was the only widespread non-Microsoft compression format out there. For ripping one's own CD collection, mp3 was the only choice.
That is not the case now with video.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4x5_Phot
I think Apple were just fools not to include DVD, Divx, & XviD support on this thing.
I agree completely about DVD (VIDEO_TS)/MPEG2.
On the other hand, to my knowledge (please correct me if I'm wrong), the ONLY purpose of Divx/XviD is pirated material. If people want to further compress their DVD collections or other video material, they can use MPEG4 or H.264 and will get better quality.
There was a very legitimate reason for mp3 in the early iPod era -- it was the only widespread non-Microsoft compression format out there. For ripping one's own CD collection, mp3 was the only choice.
That is not the case now with video.
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