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Discussion Starter #1
Other than replacing a broken TV, what will be the driving force to purchase a TV in 10 years? What upcoming technologies will get people to actually want a new TV? It feels like we are about to hit a point of diminishing returns so I am curious what people think.
  • ~30 years ago, the only real consideration was size. You wanted to upgrade to a 35” CRT.
  • ~20 years ago, there was 480p.
  • ~15 years ago, we wanted HD, thin TVs and Plasma.
  • ~10 years ago, there was 3D, then 4K and then 4k HDR.
  • Today, some of us want 4K/HDR/Dolby Vision/120Hz.
 

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There are a lot of people watching 32-55 inch models right now ready to pounce on the 55-85 inch models that will cost less than what they paid. The smart apps built into TVs will suffer from designed obsolescence and get slow over time forcing the upgrade itch as well.
 

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I'm with you crbdrb. I talked with my brother about this the other day, and it's just technology in general. Look at video games, and see the small differences in "generation" jumps today. If you look at Uncharted 1/2/3 on the PS3 and look at a game today the leap isn't that great as it was from ps1 to ps2 or ps2 to ps3. Tech today is pretty amazing, but it just seems devices are getting "faster" and not really better. Same thing with smart phones that come out every single year, and they mostly just improve the camera or software, that's about it. Sure a faster processor/more ram, but other than that, my galaxy s7 was the same experience I'm getting on my Pixel 4 XL, except my Pixel is faster.....but no real difference.

For TV's, yeah it's going to be pretty much the same. Faster UI, faster/better processor, but nothing insanely new to offer. I think we are hitting a wall tech wise until full on wireless walking/talking/sense feeling VR is put out.
 

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The last one was HDMI 2.1 for VRR and 4k/120Hz. Maybe micro-led TVs for those who want OLED level picture quality but are worried about burn-in. I don't see 8k being a must have at any point. I think most people jumped on the 4k bandwagon not because of the resolution, but because of the other enhancements like HDR10 & Dolby Vision.
 

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Also I think a lot of the things people on this forum have gotten used to—like HDR with a peak brightness of higher than 600 nits, dE<2, good motion handling, quality local dimming or OLED, etc—haven’t reached tv models that most non-enthusiasts would have access to. I think we are in the phase now (and this happened with 1080p TVs too) where everything just gets cheaper and more affordable instead of the tech changing too much.
 

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Other than replacing a broken TV, what will be the driving force to purchase a TV in 10 years?
My guess is that a lot of people have stimulus money burning a hole in their pocket.

For TV's, yeah it's going to be pretty much the same. Faster UI, faster/better processor, but nothing insanely new to offer. I think we are hitting a wall tech wise until full on wireless walking/talking/sense feeling VR is put out.
HDR is the most noticeable upgrade. Whether or not people know how big of an upgrade it is, is a different story.
 

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Sure, sales could decrease. It's a comodity. You can bet marketing people are spending lots of time and resources trying to figure that out and guide consumers towards their desired outcome. Increased sales will drive economy of scale. Marketing will always try to increase sales. Yes there could be a balancing point between improving the product and demand. It's also feasible sales decrease to a point that production is limited and prices increase. Not everyone wants or has a place in their home for larger and larger televisions and many won't be interested in sitting closer and closer to their TVs as resolution increases.
 

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I keep waiting for the magic smoke to escape from my 12 year old 55" Samsung, so far it is still well pretty sealed up in there.
Instead of waiting for my old to plasma to die, I sold it to someone willing to haul it away and give me extra cash towards an upgrade.
 

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HDR is the most noticeable upgrade. Whether or not people know how big of an upgrade it is, is a different story.
It isn't an upgrade when half of these studios can't even master their 4K discs correctly and the blu ray looks better in my eyes.
 

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Coming soon are three different technologies that I know of that have not really come to market yet, when looking at the next 15 years. QDOLED is the next major technology but there is two others behind it. TV innovation will last at least another 20 years. For 1 these tvs are not meant to last more than 5 to 8 years depending on the tv usage, so people will continue to upgrade but in 15 years trust me the last of the three technologies will change tv's to the scale of flat screens from box tvs.
 

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If the pandemic driven exodus from large metro area to suburban neighborhood continues, that may help people upgrade to larger TVs.

If all these work from home trend getting extended even after the pandemic is over, people may put aside their smaller work related screens and choose a larger screen to relax. Not continue to squint on their sub 20 inches screens.

If inflation accelerates and people know that they will need to replace a TV eventually, they may decide to upgrade their TV sooner than later. That is the psychology that fueled inflation historically.

Like any other durable goods, peaks of purchases just come in cycles. Although their existing TV still function properly. They will notice that it is already more than say 8 years old in couple years. They will then tell themselves, how many more 8 years are left in their lives. May be at least I should get a new TV.

Looking back to yester years, incorporating inflation, new TVs are almost always better value "now" than before. They will tell themselves a new TV is a good way to spend some money.
 

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Young people don't watch TV any more. They watch YouTube and pirated movies on their mobile devices. Cable TV will be pretty much dead in 10 years. Replaced with streaming services that can be accessed from any device anywhere.

I've been itching to get an OLED, but my 5 year old 75" Sony 940c still looks great. I'm sure OLED would be better, but not enough to spend $4k and have to deal with moving my old TV and installing a new one.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Is there a real possibility of a new iteration of “HDR” that won’t be backwards compatible? I have been wondering for a while if HDR can or will be replaced by a new standard.

I can certainly see myself being interested in micro-LED and even 8K, but I kind of expect both of those to be mainstream within 10 years.
 

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Young people don't watch TV any more. They watch YouTube and pirated movies on their mobile devices. Cable TV will be pretty much dead in 10 years. Replaced with streaming services that can be accessed from any device anywhere.

I've been itching to get an OLED, but my 5 year old 75" Sony 940c still looks great. I'm sure OLED would be better, but not enough to spend $4k and have to deal with moving my old TV and installing a new one.
Young people may change too. smaller, slower and worse image quality may not satisfy their gaming need anymore.
And for your 5 years old TV, your attitude towards it may change when it gets to 8 years old. I recently replaced my 14 years old car with a new one. For a car, I didn't feel the urge when it was 8 years old. For a TV, I bought a new 82" for my basement in 2019. I like it a lot. Now I am thinking of replacing my 9 years old 1080P TV in the living room.
 

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Cable TV will be pretty much dead in 10 years. Replaced with streaming services that can be accessed from any device anywhere.
It's still the same companies getting their money via your streaming bills instead of a traditional "TV" bill. They positioned themselves long ago. It's the same drug, just a slightly evolved delivery method.
 
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