[wxman]

I doubt sales will fall. Soon it won't be driven by the US market. Emerging markets in India and Asia will increase demand for larger tvs as income rises. Same with China. More and more disposable income with over 2 billion consumers in China and India alone. The US will become less and less relevant over time.

 

[KidHorn]

It's still the same companies getting their money via your streaming bills instead of a traditional "TV" bill. They positioned themselves long ago. It's the same drug, just a slightly evolved delivery method.

I know that. People will just get internet without cable TV and pay the content providers directly. Maybe TV commercials will go away.

 

[mtviewuser]

Growing up we had one 21" TV, now I have 3 TV's and a projector. Cost of TV compared to income has gone down so much, we dont think TV as special any more. It is just like light bulbs, it is there in every room.

TV manufacturers also dont care to make them to last long, they just want it to work for 4 years till next AV1 Codec or Dolby xxx, HDMI yy spec.

Next big push is going to be on the codec like AV1 optimized for 4K/8K content.

 

[Goyle99]

I doubt sales will fall. Soon it won't be driven by the US market. Emerging markets in India and Asia will increase demand for larger tvs as income rises. Same with China. More and more disposable income with over 2 billion consumers in China and India alone. The US will become less and less relevant over time.

India this may be true

China is depopulating their peak will be soon. Old people don't buy things. There is no zoomer or millenial generation of Chinese that matches those that came before. American millennials while not a bigger generation than boomers at least match their size.

They call those kids "the little emperors" because of the one child policy (pretty sure they have lifted the policy but too late, no major nation has ever raised their birthrate substantively, Russians trying desperately not working, lot of euros are). They tend to have two sets of grandparents where they're the only grand child. And are obviously a generation of only children on top of that.

They are very quickly going to be surpassed by us at a their current of ~1.7 children per woman. 2.1 is replacement rate which is what Americans are at. We grow they shrink

When I was born people thought the Japanese would take over. Didn't happen, their birthrate went down as wealth went up and they've been stagnant for decades because of it. That is on the horizon for the Chinese without changes to birthrate. Yo u want to be well over 2.1 under is a death spiral

edit - we are 1.7 now too? Maybe i'm thinking of numbers with immigration mixed in? that's not good

 

[PixelPusher15]

I know that. People will just get internet without cable TV and pay the content providers directly. Maybe TV commercials will go away.

Ha, commercials going away. That's a good one. There's always going to be a market for people willing to give you their time instead of their money.

No way do I see TV sales dropping significantly. Low cost TVs continue to improve year over year. TCL each year funnels down their tech to their lower lines. the 5 series used to not be quantum dot and FALD, now it is. The 4 series will probably get both within the next couple years. That would mean a 55" with quantum dot and FALD for like $350. Crazy. 65" with that tech around $500 and under, double crazy. What make it even crazier is people with 55" Walmart specials will be able to walk into a Walmart in a year or two and get a 75" FALD QLED for like $850. This is what will get people to upgrade. We have already seen the average TV size go from 55" to 65". I envision it just going bigger when quality TVs are cheaper and cheaper.

OLEDs will continue to drop too. Which will increase sales. New display tech will inevitably come out and people will upgrade for that for some unknown reason. There's a lot of none HDR displays out there and eventually, the marketing gurus will get to all those panel owners.

 

[vic64]

India this may be true

China is depopulating their peak will be soon. Old people don't buy things. There is no zoomer or millenial generation of Chinese that matches those that came before. American millennials while not a bigger generation than boomers at least match their size.

They call those kids "the little emperors" because of the one child policy (pretty sure they have lifted the policy but too late, no major nation has ever raised their birthrate substantively, Russians trying desperately not working, lot of euros are). They tend to have two sets of grandparents where they're the only grand child. And are obviously a generation of only children on top of that.

They are very quickly going to be surpassed by us at a their current of ~1.7 children per woman. 2.1 is replacement rate which is what Americans are at. We grow they shrink

When I was born people thought the Japanese would take over. Didn't happen, their birthrate went down as wealth went up and they've been stagnant for decades because of it. That is on the horizon for the Chinese without changes to birthrate. Yo u want to be well over 2.1 under is a death spiral

edit - we are 1.7 now too? Maybe i'm thinking of numbers with immigration mixed in? that's not good

Population growth and age distribution may shift but that will be a decade away. Even with a slower population growth, GDP could remain high. That translates into more disposable income and leisure spending for each household. Instead of a family of 8 using up most of their income on food, a family of three may have more money to chase after TV gimmicks. More participants in consumerism.

And don't forget Africa. It may represent a new wave of consumers.

 

[Goyle99]

Population growth and age distribution may shift but that will be a decade away. Even with a slower population growth, GDP could remain high. That translates into more disposable income and leisure spending for each household. Instead of a family of 8 using up most of their income on food, a family of three may have more money to chase after TV gimmicks. More participants in consumerism.

And don't forget Africa. It may represent a new wave of consumers.

The chinese have already used up the boon of not having babies and putting all their people to work. Their plan worked they had unprecedented growth. All the TV gimmicks have been bought haha. Or soon it will be over anyway, they aren't done growing yet by the looks of it.

Problem is without more babies those people who used to be productive economic inputs will become a burden on the state and their children.

You need to keep the age pyramid "balanced" with the seniors being the smallest group for our social welfare systems that involve the elderly to work. They thought they could raise birth rate* back up at will....Turns out no one seems to be having any success. They are about to be smacked in the face by a massive senior population they built their economy on.

Africa has a lot of issues outside a few nations which have really good geography and could be industrial powerhouses like Angola* and South Africa. Angola* has a really nice river system. I don't there there is much hope for Democratic Republic of Congo or Mongolia becoming massive consumer centers being land locked

 

[Davenlr]

I bought replacements for all my TVs last year. Paid not a cent more than half price. Waiting for sales, Deal of the Day, etc. All set now until they come out with a 75" MicroLED for under $4000, or one of my current sets breaks. At the current prices of OLEDs, If my main TV breaks, I would just replace it with a 65" OLED. Will wait on MicroLED next.
Since they are so difficult to make, getting pixels close together, I would actually settle for a 75" 1080p MicroLED, since there isnt that much 4K material anyway, and I sit 10' from the TV.

 

[stuart628]

It isn't an upgrade when half of these studios can't even master their 4K discs correctly and the blu ray looks better in my eyes.

I thought it was just me getting older (40 this year ) and cranky, I am glad others feel this way..I still have no problem just ripping blurays to my plex server and dont feel a HUGE need to go to 4k disks a lot as I think the uncompressed 1080p and audio still is better them some 4kuhd releases!

 

[wxman]

The chinese have already used up the boon of not having babies and putting all their people to work. Their plan worked they had unprecedented growth. All the TV gimmicks have been bought haha. Or soon it will be over anyway, they aren't done growing yet by the looks of it.

Problem is without more babies those people who used to be productive economic inputs will become a burden on the state and their children.

You need to keep the age pyramid "balanced" with the seniors being the smallest group for our social welfare systems that involve the elderly to work. They thought they could raise birth rate* back up at will....Turns out no one seems to be having any success. They are about to be smacked in the face by a massive senior population they built their economy on.

Africa has a lot of issues outside a few nations which have really good geography and could be industrial powerhouses like Angola* and South Africa. Angola* has a really nice river system. I don't there there is much hope for Democratic Republic of Congo or Mongolia becoming massive consumer centers being land locked

Chinese disposable income is expanding rapidly. For years most of their money was spent on housing and food, with very little left over for electronics, cars etc. Why do you think Apple is pushing so hard in China. All that disposable income to buy their iPhones. The US market has reached its max, Apple knows that, and emerging markets are where the money is. The spending boom is just starting in China, not ending. People in China, just like the rest of the world want nice things. And if anything, they want to surpass the US in everything, including income. There entire driving force is to surpass the west and be the most powerful country economically and militarily in the world.

 

[Goyle99]

Chinese disposable income is expanding rapidly. For years most of their money was spent on housing and food, with very little left over for electronics, cars etc. Why do you think Apple is pushing so hard in China. All that disposable income to buy their iPhones. The US market has reached its max, Apple knows that, and emerging markets are where the money is. The spending boom is just starting in China, not ending. People in China, just like the rest of the world want nice things. And if anything, they want to surpass the US in everything, including income. There entire driving force is to surpass the west and be the most powerful country economically and militarily in the world.

Yea they want nice things. They also crushed their own birthrate before they got rich

Which will ruin them if they don't fix it before they get grey.

You don't seem to get it. They had that crazy growth because they shipped all their working age people to various manufacturing hubs and forcefully industrialized faster than any major nation in history. Their growth would look a lot more like India's had they just kept having babies. People would have stayed rural they couldn't go work in a foxconn factory with 5 kids.

Huge sums of people went rural to urban. But without the ability to fill out the rural lands again (or just make a lot more urban babies) that growth will turn the other way as society's resources are eaten up by the old. You can't just endlessly sustain yourself without having babies. THe boon ends when the first generation that was smaller than it's parental counter part is smaller and they have to pay for their parents retirement. Eventually those workers become seniors who need services and produce next to nothing.

It's over China will never reach parity with us at the rate they're going. Average age in china is 38....Soon it will be 60. They are on exactly the same demographics as us as the richest major nation on earth. We can just ship more people in

 

[discspinner]

I thought it was just me getting older (40 this year ) and cranky, I am glad others feel this way..I still have no problem just ripping blurays to my plex server and dont feel a HUGE need to go to 4k disks a lot as I think the uncompressed 1080p and audio still is better them some 4kuhd releases!

Nope not just you, they are dropping the ball on too many 4K discs by not doing the HDR right or messing up the grain etc. Lazy releases, suboptimal mastering, I really think by the time they all figure out the best way to master these things the format will be dead anyway. Also, I think the way most 4K discs look are just different from the 2K blu rays most of the time, and not better by default. If a 2K blu ray looks more like owning a print of a film over the 4K, I want to watch that version. I don't see how any film lover could say otherwise.

 

[tokerblue]

What 4K discs look worse than their BluRay counterparts? Most of the ones I've seen and own are an upgrade.

 

[vic64]

For most big corporations, they don't dream of booms anymore unless they perceive themselves in a pivotal moment of history. Like Apple in it's Steve Job era or Beyond meat's plant base patties. They are more likely to have a mentality of staying alive, or with sustainable growth at best. There will of course be different factors pushing and pulling their prospects. No doubt about it. What we can see now is that with the investment levels and direction of the few brand names that we know, they probably are not expecting their business to plummet in the near or median term.

 

[mattlach]

Plummet might be a bit strong, but there might be something to this.

There will be some draws to upgrade, but likely not as many as in the past. Large high resolution screens with good HDR capability exist now, and there are fewer newer features added to them than in the past.

I expect marketers to push 8K like it is the second coming of Christ, despite there being next to no content, and 4k already outresolving the eye at any screen size and viewing distance that fits inside the field of view of the human eye. Most people will probably fall for it too.

There will be some tech improvements that people want. In the near future people might be looking to add models with VRR and 120hz capability for gaming, if they haven't already. HDR seems like it is always improving as well. Certainly there will be fewer reasons to upgrade going forward, but that doesn't seem to stop the golden-eared audiophile types who keep dumping increasing sums into hardware that doesn't matter, so I'd imagine that will happen in TV screens too.

The smart apps built into TVs will suffer from designed obsolescence and get slow over time forcing the upgrade itch as well.

I think you are on to something here. This is why I always think external sources are much better than "Smart" TV's. If I had the choice, I'd buy top level screen quality and features, with no "Smart" technology built in, and use my own sources.

Personally I am still on my old 65" 1080p Panasonic Plasma I've had for about a decade. I do have the upgrade itch, and I almost bought a new 77" LG OLED a couple of months ago, but then I decided to pursue a home purchase instead, so I needed to save my cash for closing costs.

Once I do get the OLED, I picture holding on to it as long as I can. Since I use external sources, and I consider modern current gen HDR standards to be quite good, I have a difficult time envisioning any must hvae features that would force me to upgrade for another 10-15 years. The only limiting factor would likely be OLED burn-in/wear out where contrast is lost over time.

 

[Otto Pylot]

@mattlach I agree. My first HDTV was dumb, so I had to get an external STB to stream, which was the AppleTV4 (HD only). That worked, and still does quite nicely, for the HDTV downstairs. Upstairs, I have an OLED, and while the built-in apps are nice, I prefer to use my AppleTV 4k for all of my streaming. I don't need ARC/eARC so running everything thru the AVR works perfectly. It would be easier for me to update an external box than it would be to replace the tv if the built-in apps start to get flaky.

 

[Deaf-Forever]

Instead of waiting for my old to plasma to die, I sold it to someone willing to haul it away and give me extra cash towards an upgrade.

I thought I scored big when I found my 85" plasma for 1300 bucks. Its got a great picture and no motion issues. Better than a lot of current tvs, with 1080P input of course. Your comment got me to thinking of the process to get rid of a 300+ pound tv. Having someone pay me to take it away might be a hell of an idea. The new Vizio is pretty good. Insane with 4K stuff, so so with SD but the motion is hit and miss. I will keep it because the picture is out of this world and work on the motion part. So Mike, you looking for an 85" plasma?? Make you a hell of a deal!

 

[mattlach]

@mattlach I agree. My first HDTV was dumb, so I had to get an external STB to stream, which was the AppleTV4 (HD only). That worked, and still does quite nicely, for the HDTV downstairs. Upstairs, I have an OLED, and while the built-in apps are nice, I prefer to use my AppleTV 4k for all of my streaming. I don't need ARC/eARC so running everything thru the AVR works perfectly. It would be easier for me to update an external box than it would be to replace the tv if the built-in apps start to get flaky.

I've never really gotten into Apples ecosystem, so I am not familliar with those units, but the key is that they are separate, and you can replace them whenever they start feeling old or slow, without replacing the screen!

Personally I build cheap little Kodi boxes using Odroid single board ARM computers and CoreElec. This won't work if for streaming services though, but they suit me quite nicely (I tend to buy blurays on sale, and rip them to my network storage media library)

For someone who wants streaming services (netflix, hulu, etc) I'd probably go with a Roku. They seem to be getting really cheap and still capable.

 

[Otto Pylot]

I've never really gotten into Apples ecosystem, so I am not familliar with those units, but the key is that they are separate, and you can replace them whenever they start feeling old or slow, without replacing the screen!

Personally I build cheap little Kodi boxes using Odroid single board ARM computers and CoreElec. This won't work if for streaming services though, but they suit me quite nicely (I tend to buy blurays on sale, and rip them to my network storage media library)

For someone who wants streaming services (netflix, hulu, etc) I'd probably go with a Roku. They seem to be getting really cheap and still capable.

I'm not into building boxes for my streaming needs. A nice project but I don't have the time for that. I have two Roku's on tv's that aren't hard wired and they do work good. For us, hard wiring the primary tv's with the ATV's is the way to go. It works for us.

 

[zrdb]

I've always thought that streaming was stupid, I prefer to download what I watch and have it on local storage (plenty of hdds). For me those Odroid sbcs are perfect. I have 2 N2s running Coreelec and they beat any crappy Rokus or Apple junk by a country mile. As for upgrading my tv I might get an oled to replace my beloved 42" Panny plasma.