[trainerdave]

What did you watch in high-definition (HDTV) television last night? If your answer is "nothing," don't fear, you're not alone. Only a fraction of American households are receiving HDTV in their homes. And our federal government's 15-year industrial policy to make sure the conversion to HDTV is complete by 2006 looks more like an impending train wreck with each passing month.


read the whole story. . .

http://www.cato.org/dailys/05-01-02.html

 

[DP1]

Yeah, in hindsight they could've done it that way. Just having let the chips fall where they may.


I suppose also in hindsight, at the same time they were mandating that all stations were on air digitally by 5/1/02 they could have mandated that all cable co's be HD ready, willing, and able by that time too. Oh, but we couldnt have done that could we. You cant mandate like that to somebody that isnt really using a resource like the airwaves to deliver a product.


But without having done that how on Gods green earth did they expect any of this to fly. Would it really matter as of today if every single station were up and running? Would any appreciable number of homes be watching the signals regardless, without cable delivery? 80% of the households use cable or DBS these days. Were the vast majority of people really about to go and spend hundreds on decoders, even more on sets to display the HD signals properly, and install antennas to be able to view them OTA? Obviously not because even in the areas where the stations are up and running in good numbers, people arent buying the means to see them.


In other words even if the stations all had made the deadline you still couldnt have auctioned off the spectrum because until cable co's start carrying the digital signals theres no way that any more than 20% of households would even be equipped to see them. And the very 20% of the people that might rely on OTA only, or the folks that have secondary sets that arent connected to the cable arent about to buy in either. Like Gramma and her 19" Philco is about to buy in? Or the folks watching that 13" OTA tv in the kitchen over breakfast are about to buy a digital tv just to be able to do that, even if the local airwaves are full of digital signals?


People are not going to give one lick about digital signals until they are simply hardwired into their homes via cable or DBS. Once that happens you'll be near the 85% you need and then and only then can you even begin to worry about auctioning anything off. Until then, you wont be auctioning off anything but raffle tickets. Simple as that.

 

[DaleBarrett]

Dan,


Agree with everything you said except the following:

Quote:

You cant mandate like that to somebody that isnt really using a resource like the airwaves to deliver a product.

Why not? Last time I checked the cable companies were operating as a government-granted (and regulated) monopoly. For that that privilege, we certainly can mandate cable must-carry IMHO, and only the weak-kneed bumbling excuse for leadership by the FCC and congress has so far prevented it.


Dale

 

[MikeKO]

I am constantly mystified by the people that use these terms (train wreck, etc.). Maybe I am blind, deaf, and stupid, but afaik, the transition is going pretty d**m well. Where are the problems?


Cable, almost every major vendor is moving.


Netorks - Broadcast - ABC, CBS (NBC in the Fall) Fox (well sorta)


Broadcast Stations - behind, but lots of orders for transmitters etc.


TV cost - falling like a rock.


STBs - built in starting in next generation


TV Sales - growing at a HUGE rate (revenue and unit volume)


Sports in HD - I gotta admit.. there is very slow progress here when it comes to the big 3 (Football, Basketball, and Baseball).


So tell me, where is the wreck?



Mike

 

[DP1]

Dale, no I agree with you. The sentence you quoted was meant to be more of a rhetorical rolling eyes type statement sort of like the sentence before it, but I didnt get that point across.


And Mike, yeah I'm with ya. If anybody actually thought that within just a few short years of a plan for digital tv being enacted that every staton would be broadcasting a signal, that every show would be in HD, that HDTV's wouldnt cost any more than regular tv's, that they'd be giving away decoders, that cable tv would be carrying the signals (which is actally the biggest problem right now-- that they're not), well yeah, the I guess they'd think it was a train wreck. We're talking a whole new ballgame here. Like it was gonna be a done deal in something at or less than 5 years?


I suppose those same people, had they been around when tv went to a color format and it took over 10 years to simply get their moneys worth out of their new tv, would logically have had to refer to that scenario as a nuclear disaster then. All that had to happen then was the few programs that were available had to be in color. It still took one heck of a long time.