Jeese, once the majority of sports finds a "home" outside of the fat cable bundle (and live news- for me, CNBC), I think the cable bundle will die much more quickly that what the Diffusion Group is predicting.
Not until alternative high speed internet options become widely available. The last mile to my home has been owned by Heron, Adelphia, Comcast, Verizon, Fairpoint, and now Consolidated. Google Fiber was supposed to provide everyone with inexpensive high speed internet. It hasn't. At $70/month, it's not really competitive and it's not exactly taking the country by storm...
For a couple bucks more per month than I pay for Consolidated, I could have Comcast high speed internet plus basic television service. The fact that I prefer the diginets to the cable fillers has kept Consolidated in my home.
Sinclair announced some of their RSNs will offer standalone version this year- but no details have been announced (will people get the full channel and all the games, or will it only be a subset of the games?)
Sinclair Says It Will Be Offering Standalone RSN Products as Soon as Next Year | Bleacher Nation
How much would you pay for a RSN subscription? How many would you pay for all of the RSNs required to get your splintered sports programming? Cable minus the cost of RSNs could be much less expensive. I offered Comcast $150/month for life for high speed internet and a decent programming package in 2008. If they had countered, "except for sports," I would be a customer today.
Anyway, perhaps the sports "dam" that's holding back the implosion of the fat cable bundle is about to develop some large cracks. On his way out @ Disney, Iger went on record stating there is no contractual holdback for Disney to not offer a OTT standalone ESPN. It's just that the economics don't (yet) make sense.
I don't think the economics are better today. Ratings are down and costs are up.
Ether way, the sports teams owners and players had better get ready to take in less money. Once not every widowed grandma is paying $5+/month for a RSN and only for the streaming services she wants, the $ "pie" will be smaller.
Exactly. As the pool of cable subscribers subsidizing the cost of RSNs for sports enthusiasts falls, the cost per user increases. Each increase chases away more of the people 'who don't mind' paying for sports they don't watch.
If only the cable tv industry hadn't fleeced us all with these fat packages and $8-$15/month (for EACH) tv charge for set top boxes and DVRs it might not have turned out quite this way. I have always joked that I bet Comcast purchased NBC Universal over a decade ago just on the profit they get from their monthly set top box "rental" fee.
It's not like they cannot retreat. Switch to IP tv, drop sports and integrate a Sling TV or Tablo TV DVR into a whole house box and you have a skinny package that includes local programming. Charge the premium channels a commission to be on those boxes. Basically, an Amazon Recast with Philo and Prime Channels. If that whole house DVR includes ATSC 3.0 tuners, then Comcast sits right where it did at the cutover to ATSC 1.0 -- poised to offer consumers an inexpensive (per month) alternative to replacing their ATSC 1.0 TVs, DVRs, and analog to digital DVRs.