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CES Predictions

2622 Views 37 Replies 31 Participants Last post by mikemorel, Jan 3, 2006

neoangin

Discussion Starter · Dec 29, 2005

Well, I guess with all the speculation around it might be interesting to post a thread with predictions of what CES will bring and how it will be reported. We can revisit it in two weeks...

Here are my few wild guesses:

1. There will be more interest in the way how the next-gen media interact with the home-network (e.g. streaming, MC) than the next-gen media standalone

2. Likewise, the interactivity layers of presented titles will be more reported on than the image quality impression

3. BD-J and iHD demos will run on PCs and not give a clear indication of what the consumer can expect in the end

3. The mainstream media will hopelessly confuse camps, codecs and interactivity platforms involved in the format war

4. Intel will make a major impression with its new ViiV platform and logo campaign

5. MS will demonstrate Universal's King Kong on Vista

6. Sony will dissappoint and the PS3 launch situation will remain unclear

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1 - 20 of 38 Posts

mikey p

· #2 · Dec 29, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by neoangin
3. The mainstream media will hopelessly confuse camps, codecs and interactivity platforms involved in the format war

And we will still be in the same place a year from now (sad as that is, due to M$), thank God for D-VHS in the mean time.

hmurchison

· #3 · Dec 29, 2005

1. We still won't have firm pricing from either camp. We'll be treated to another round of press release.

2. HD Tivo is announced. Tivo Corp finally pulls their head from their rectum and delivers a easier to network product.

3. Intel announces ViiV ...yet nothing is groundbreaking. They market the hell out of it despite the fact that all ViiV products are more similar than different.

4. Bill Gates gives a keynote where once again he appears clueless when compared to a Steve Jobs keynote.

toomuchtalk

· #4 · Dec 29, 2005

(tongue firmly in cheek)

1. 50 GB BD discs announced with high yield

2. 45 GB HD-DVD discs announced with high yield

3. PS3 to sell by feb 06 for 400 USD

4. xbox 360 v2 to include HD drive

5. a torent of movies on HD discs by mar 06

annnnnd

6. MS & BD reach a compromise which allows everyone to work together & thus provide us consumers (rem us?) some HD joy pronto

nah, you are right.. number 6 sounds far-fetched

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Ja Phule

· #5 · Dec 29, 2005

I think you forgot unification between HD-DVD and BD.

toomuchtalk

· #6 · Dec 30, 2005

if CES is a dud, maybe this could be a bomb at CeBIT..

Posting on HDBEAT

lymzy

· #7 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by toomuchtalk
if CES is a dud, maybe this could be a bomb at CeBIT..

Posting on HDBEAT

Don't you know EVD was almost dead? The company (E-world) behind it was broke. They have less than 60K US dollar in the account which was frozen by the court. EVD was nothing more than a joke.

toomuchtalk

· #8 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by lymzy
Don't you know EVD was almost dead? The company (E-world) behind it was broke. They have less than 60K US dollar in the account which was frozen by the court. EVD was nothing more than a joke.

nope, didnt know that. thanks

does the situation preclude selling the know-how and IP to interested parties?

toomuchtalk

· #9 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by lymzy
Don't you know EVD was almost dead? The company (E-world) behind it was broke. They have less than 60K US dollar in the account which was frozen by the court. EVD was nothing more than a joke.

is VMD also dead / a joke? the news wires seem to carry news on the 40 GB version being real..

Jimbo Moran

· #10 · Dec 30, 2005

1. Toshiba announces plans to begin production of Blu Ray players

2. MS announces they are suing Tom Mc

3. Amir announces his retirement

4. All the posters from Seattle in this thread are spotted wearing MS hats and thongs

5. Sony basks in the glory of their new PS3 secretly being launched in Walmart stores that very day

6. The US Justice Dept begins an anti-trust investigation of MS, naturally their stock soars on the news

Richard Paul

· #11 · Dec 30, 2005

Guessing in it's purest form.

8 to 12 Blu-ray recorders will be shown.
Sony will show the PS3 off with actual gameplay but will not yet announce the price of it.
3 or 4 HD-DVD players will be shown with at least one of them supposedly launching in the spring.
Microsoft will heavily promote iHD with both PC and CE based demos.
A list of Blu-ray movies will be given numbering at least 50.
A good number of 1080p displays will be shown, which can accept 1080p60 over HDMI, in the range of 30 to 40 displays.
We will see several AV receivers with 4 HDMI inputs.

nataraj

· #12 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbo Moran
4. All the posters from Seattle in this thread are spotted wearing MS hats and thongs

Including people working in Google

Oh BTW, Jimbo declares intention to join a Union and vote democratic

rambo2300

· #13 · Dec 30, 2005

1. Sony will announce prices of BluRay 25GB DVD-RW disks at only $2,399 dollars per disk.

2. Sony will demonstrate a cheap version of a 1/10X BluRay-RW recorder for only $125,499; which by the way only works in outer space, zero gravity.

3. Sony will anounce pricing for the first generation of BluRay players: $36,199 at Radio Shack.

Until 2015, BluRay will be so expensive that only the burgeoisie will be able to afford it. I am glad the WalMart owners and Gates families will be able to enjoy HD movies.

mikemorel

· #14 · Dec 30, 2005

I predict MS will announce a new "premium edition" XBox 360 w/HD-DVD drive, as well as an add on HD-DVD drive for the current XBox 360, with DVI dongle and HDCP, and 1080p support. Availability September '06, pricing TBD. The existing XBox will still continue to be sold as well, albeit with a price cut in September.

Or -

MS jumps on board with Blu Ray after MMC is once again accepted (

), iHD is accepted and BD-J is jettisoned by BDA. Merry Xmas - war is over (if you want it).

nataraj

· #15 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikemorel
MS jumps on board with Blu Ray after MMC is once again accepted (

), iHD is accepted and BD-J is jettisoned by BDA. Merry Xmas - war is over (if you want it).

I personally vote of this to the most likely scenario ... with some corrections.

BD-J would be made optional. iHD would also be optional i.e. Optional for disks and players, with some other way to navigate in case the player does not support the chosen method on the disk. Sort of like DTS / DD5.1 with stero fallback.

GamerGuy

· #16 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbo Moran
1. Toshiba announces plans to begin production of Blu Ray players

2. MS announces they are suing Tom Mc

3. Amir announces his retirement

4. All the posters from Seattle in this thread are spotted wearing MS hats and thongs

5. Sony basks in the glory of their new PS3 secretly being launched in Walmart stores that very day

6. The US Justice Dept begins an anti-trust investigation of MS, naturally their stock soars on the news

CES...

1. Blu-ray and PS3 do not dominate the entire show.

2. Jimbo has a stroke.

Eventually...

1. It is announced that Blu-ray discs will be completely copy proof.

2. Jimbo dances a jig.

3. BD-R discs will be in low demand and expensive (thank copy protections)

4. Next-gen HD products hang on for their lives through gaming consoles, but eventually go the way of the laser disc.

5. Movies start showing up on Holographic disks with less restrictive DRM.

6. VOD and Holographic disks create a merry, user friendly co-existence and become the next standards for a long time.

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toomuchtalk

· #17 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by GamerGuy
4. Movies start showing up on Holographic disks with less restrictive DRM.

5. VOD and Holographic disks create a merry, user friendly co-existance and become the next standards for a long time.

that sounds Great! i am hoping for exactly that.. the way things are goin in Sony vs MS land

paintit77

· #18 · Dec 30, 2005

1. Jimbo Moran is exposed to be Al Gore

2. Sony launches the PS3 for $299.00 and the CEOs of the other BR members realize that they are idiots and decide to fall on their swords (its a Japan thing).

3. MS launches the XBOX-360 with an HD-DVD Drive and realize that they have already sold 6 million without HD-DVDs and decide to not offer games on the new format. Only Movie playing capability.

4. Hollywood DRM is so extreme that an investigation reveals that half the members of congress are guilty of corruption and have to resign.

5. A class action lawsuit results in full bandwidth HD over component video outputs and Hollywood loses billions.

Kadath

· #19 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

BD-J and iHD demos will run on PCs and not give a clear indication of what the consumer can expect in the end

I (along with about 100 other members from hometheaterforum.com) witnessed a working prototype console BD deck with fully functional Java capabilities in summer of '04. There was absolutely no question about the capabilities or expectations that this tech could provide. The ONLY question we had was how hard it would be to debug this code, given the strict QC that current DVDs go through, this seemed to open up so many avenues for things that would not be fully tested, possibly requiring a 'Phone home' capability for patches. Such Phone Home requirements were the one stumbling block we did not like, as this introduced the possibility for crazy Circuit City DIVX like prospects.

If it wasnt for this troubling aspect, I would have called HDDVD dead at that point. We still dont know how bad it will be. I have been waiting 18 months for these answers, and we better get them next thursday or sooner.

Sam

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dr1394

· #20 · Dec 30, 2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by lymzy
Don't you know EVD was almost dead? The company (E-world) behind it was broke. They have less than 60K US dollar in the account which was frozen by the court. EVD was nothing more than a joke.

You sound a little bitter. Do you work for On2/Duck?

Ron

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