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Just a random prediction that you guys can use to make fun of me when it proves untrue. (If you saw my NCAA Basketball pool, you'd know I'm used to such ridicule.)


Reading through the threads on the "Standing in the Shadows of Motown" DVD, I'm even more convinced that the world is not heading towards HD-DVD. Any new format will be burdened with encryption and/or DRM that will make it less convenient to use than current DVD's. "More convenient" is more important to the masses than "Higher Quality," so they will not embrace the new format. HD-DVD will exist, but DVD's will be more popular through at least 2010. Same reasoning will keep CD's more popular than SCAD or any new format over the same timeframe.



However, this prediction only applies to consumer demand. Studios could tilt sales to the new formats if they stop producing stuff in the old formats due to lack of copyright protections.
 

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I'll keep buying DVD's until something better comes along, 1080p on new larger capacity disks, with less compressed sound would be sweet.


Then I'll do what I did with my VHS collection... rebuy the great stuff again in the new format, and then expand the new format collection.


My opinion is that DVD is too popular and too new to replace for a good while yet. Nothing better will come along in a large commercial sense until HDTV's have (a) settled on a standard and everyone follows it and (b) a large number of the population have one.


- Rick
 

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The general populace has still not taken advantage of DVD quality (much less maxed it out) by buying larger screen TVs (the average screen size is still 27").


Until the average screen size moves to 38" don't expect any big moves to HD including HD-DVD.


And that dismal prognostication will continue as long as display technology continues to lag storage technology.
 

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What about a format that has even more resolution than HDTV? I would assume the digital movie camera's film at much higher of a resolution than 1920x1080. Maybe we should just wait until that is commercially available, and in the mean time we could all read books or get lives!
 

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More resolution than HD? Heck, I'd be happy with DVD resolution if the bit rate was maxed and there was no compression on video OR audio.
 

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people run near 1920x1080 resolutions on their 21" computer monitors all the time. now you're telling me that blowing that resolution up to say a 120" screen size is acceptable? it's the end game?
 
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