AVS Forum banner

1 - 20 of 40 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,428 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Regarding the recent article "EMA Predicts Blu-ray to Outsell DVD in 2012"As a retired numbers professional statistics can be easily manipulated to foresee a multitude of future trends. Even though I fully support high definition video in all forms such a prediction seems overly ambitious and more to the point not realistic.


Just think about what it will take to bring about the mass conversion of the everyday person to BR. Do analyst seriously believe BR movies will drop down to $13-$19 and players to the $50-$150 range in 3.5 years. Does anyone expect to find BR movies in the $7.50 discount racks at Wal-Mart by 2012? Do these so called experts also believe the masses will move from their converted analog televisions or bargain brand HD units to displays capable of delivering the true HD quality found in BR? The success in BR lies in the selling of the whole package, i.e. display, cabling, sound and of course the movie.


Just consider the current initiatives by Netflix, Directv, Dishnetwork, AT&T and others. While not to the level of BR readlily availabe HD programing including movies are as close as your remote control. This market is going to continually evolve and grow.


My gosh, look at the mess that is taking place with the mandatory conversion to DTV! People will not totally embrace this conversion (DTV) until forced. Meaning, convert or no more picture.


In closing, Outside of divine intervention, I do not forsee any forthcoming event that will push the general mass populace from standard to high definition DVD's. Success of a mass transistion will require a re-education of the consumer, the devaluation of all high definition necessities and a marketing campaign of the century.


Any and all comments welcomed.


LouisPlease Note. I must apologize. For some reason, the text of my message is not showing up in its default color so for those of you using a light colored background a black font edition of my thread follows. Since my conversion of Firefox to version 3.0 a number of text related issues have occurred.

Regarding the recent article "EMA Predicts Blu-ray to Outsell DVD in 2012"As a retired numbers professional statistics can be easily manipulated to foresee a multitude of future trends. Even though I fully support high definition video in all forms such a prediction seems overly ambitious and more to the point not realistic.


Just think about what it will take to bring about the mass conversion of the everyday person to BR. Do analyst seriously believe BR movies will drop down to $13-$19 and players to the $50-$150 range in 3.5 years. Does anyone expect to find BR movies in the $7.50 discount racks at Wal-Mart by 2012? Do these so called experts also believe the masses will move from their converted analog televisions or bargain brand HD units to displays capable of delivering the true HD quality found in BR? The success in BR lies in the selling of the whole package, i.e. display, cabling, sound and of course the movie.


Just consider the current initiatives by Netflix, Directv, Dishnetwork, AT&T and others. While not to the level of BR readlily availabe HD programing including movies are as close as your remote control. This market is going to continually evolve and grow.


My gosh, look at the mess that is taking place with the mandatory conversion to DTV! People will not totally embrace this conversion (DTV) until forced. Meaning, convert or no more picture.


In closing, Outside of divine intervention, I do not forsee any forthcoming event that will push the general mass populace from standard to high definition DVD's. Success of a mass transistion will require a re-education of the consumer, the devaluation of all high definition necessities and a marketing campaign of the century.


Any and all comments welcomed.


Louis
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
27,090 Posts
I've been saying this for over s year.... Not surprised at all. Blu Ray is a smashing success and will continue on its way to eclipsing DVD.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
490 Posts
rofl, success?


Still waiting for a player without issues. The "first gen product early adopter" excuse doesn't work 2 years later.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,428 Posts
Discussion Starter #4
Let's hear your thoughts on this subject!

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,000 Posts
It might outsell DVD but only because DVD will have (continue to shrink) shrunk (Oy, my teachers of English would roll their eyes reading this!) to a small fraction of its former glory by 2012. Blu-Ray will continue to grow. Will it reach the tens of billions of dollars per year that DVD did in its heyday?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,225 Posts
Ha! Helluv a lot longer then the quickly evaporating "3 years" BLU RAY (and its fb's) said it would be, what, over a year ago now, lol.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
738 Posts
2012 - that's a year before John McCain says we will be out of Iraq. Sounds too soon to me.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
175 Posts

Quote:
Originally Posted by eci /forum/post/14154861


rofl, success?


Still waiting for a player without issues. The "first gen product early adopter" excuse doesn't work 2 years later.

I'm still waiting for a DVD player without issues. At this point, I doubt it's ever going to happen.


The only way for Blu-ray to surpass DVD in just four more years will be if the studios do something to inhibit DVD sales while pushing Blu-ray. If those studios really want the switch to Blu-ray, they have the means to make it happen. They control the product, it's release schedule and features.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
249 Posts
It might be possible. Personally I'm buying more Blu-rays than DVD's. Right now you can find alot of Bluray movies on sale for $12-$19 (Amazon, Tower, Deepdiscount) and there are $7-10 "bargain" Bluray movies.


The price gap between new Bluray and DVD releases has steadily shrunk, some movies are within $5 now. Once they release a $100-$150 Blu-ray player, I think most people won't mind spending $5-$10 more for the Bluray.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,428 Posts
Discussion Starter #13

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pineapple /forum/post/14158253


It might be possible. Personally I'm buying more Blu-rays than DVD's. Right now you can find alot of Bluray movies on sale for $12-$19 (Amazon, Tower, Deepdiscount) and there are $7-10 "bargain" Bluray movies.


The price gap between new Bluray and DVD releases has steadily shrunk, some movies are within $5 now. Once they release a $100-$150 Blu-ray player, I think most people won't mind spending $5-$10 more for the Bluray.

You bring up a very good point about the pricing BUT such prices are purchases made over the internet. The masses shop in brick and mortar stores so that is where this war will be fought.


Pineapple, thank for participating and please keep commenting.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
553 Posts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nosferax /forum/post/14158087


Download isn't going to fly with the isp imposing limit on downloads and traffic shaping. Unless you want to use their own services then you are limited to what they want you to watch. And movie on usb drive... lol. do you have something official by one of the major studio to that effect. And player are already affordable. If you have the dough to buy an HDTV you can save your penny a little longer to buy a PS3 or the magnavox from walmart.

As far as downloading speeds we are talking about 2012 eh? Dont fool yourself, the speeds will triple by then.


And yes, in 2012 usb drives will be substantial and portable, cheap and reliable (There are no moving parts).


Disc drives and players are large, expensive and have a high failure rate. Do you still own a floppy drive on your computer? I literally have my 13 years of law practice on 1 usb.


Paul
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
1,079 Posts

Quote:
Originally Posted by DOMAIN64 /forum/post/14159316


As far as downloading speeds we are talking about 2012 eh? Dont fool yourself, the speeds will triple by then.

That is NOT what he's talking about. Every major ISP except Verizon is putting download caps in place, and soon. Most are testing their cap plans already or will be soon. Comcast for instance is going to top out at 40GB down per month. You'll then pay a premium PER GIG after that.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,759 Posts
I'm enjoying my Blu-Ray player very much, but I feel BD is a still born format. Basically another SACD. Sony needs to do something very big this year to change the future (major price reductions and finalize firmware). Personally, I think downloading is definitely the future. And please before everyone starts screaming bandwidth limitations and home computers. I'm talking Comcast HD On Demand and similiar products from Verizon FIOS. OK, I hear ya, it's not quite as good as BD. So what, the consumer doesn't have to buy any hardware or disc. And even 5 years from now, very few consumers will have the necessary hardware to fully appreciate TrueHD or BD video.


So, BD may outsell DVD in 2010, but that might be because no one buys DVD's in 2012, since they are downloading instead.


John
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,395 Posts
Blu-Ray will be a mature and dominant product when the studios stop releasing separate SD and Blu-Ray editions of recent major movies. No other benchmark matters.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
553 Posts

That is NOT what he's talking about. Every major ISP except Verizon is putting download caps in place, and soon. Most are testing their cap plans already or will be soon. Comcast for instance is going to top out at 40GB down per month. You'll then pay a premium PER GIG after that.



And your not paying a premium for the player and the disc? I will gladly pay $20 bucks a month to the ISP for 4-6 downloads if I decide to do so that month.



Yeah, that maybe the case, but it still remains a 25 year old technology that is long in tooth and ridiculously expensive. If the player breaks, you throw it out.


Plus, I really believe the USB drives will solve all else. You own it and you dont need a player.



Paul
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
553 Posts

Quote:
Originally Posted by RWetmore /forum/post/14159625


The prices haven't come down quite that much yet because the players are selling at the current prices. It's simple supply and demand. How many stores do you see with stacks of unsold Blu-ray players? The more common trend is stores are sold out.

Funny,


I went to CC yesterday and the sales rep mentioned they sold 6 players last month. They cant get rid of them and they are worried about new models and features so they only stock 3-4 at a time. There is no supply for a reason.


Paul
 
1 - 20 of 40 Posts
Top