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2 YEars...The likely scenario between HD DVD and Blu Ray

  • HD DVD beats Blu Ray

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  • HD DVD coexists with Blu Ray (barely) though Blu Ray has the majority of studios / software sales.

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  • HD DVD folds...Completely.

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  • They both die..Unlikely, but that's how I feel.

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Discussion Starter #1
Too many of us here at AVS forum...Warner dealt a death blow to HD DVD....On the other hand, many fell it is merely a set back... I know where I stand but would like to know where other HD DVD owners stand on this... The poll is simple..


Where do you see HD DVD in 2 years:


1. HD DVD disposes of Blu Ray in the movie market...... Or HD DVD simply Supplants Blu Ray. HD DVD will likely have taken root in the USA in 2 years and the cheap players will make for a reversal of fortune for HD DVD to resurrect it from the [apparent] dead. HD DVD has overcome Blu Ray despite Blu Ray's current stronghold on the format war lead. HD DVD will be how we all buy HD content and BLu Ray will be for storage and/or games.


2. HD DVD will coexist with Blu Ray. They may or may not have any exclusive studios in 2 years but Toshiba will continue to make players and the b e it for mass storage or some other use for HD DVD, it will continue to be manufactured and used by consumers in some manner or another.


3. HD DVD will no longer exist. Blu Ray wins. Toshiba will likely sell out all the players they have in stock at fire sale prices (a last gasp of air). Universal and Paramount will ride out their exclusivity contracts (or not) and go to the Blu side so as to sell more software and HD DVD will cease to exist with virtually no movie softeware...no more software and no more players.


4. I'm a conspiracy theorist. HD downloads will end the short reign of HD DVD and Blu Ray. Or DVD will reign supreme as people will get their HD from cable, satellite or just plain forget it and go back to DVD. Certainly this will never happen but I just can't stand this war and hope, in a hail Mary pass, this might...just might....happen and both sides implode..
 

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Mostly 3 with a little 2.


edit - I chose HD DVD folds, because the option above it didn't account for Blu-ray having 100% studio support, which I think it will have by the 2008 Holidays.
 

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HD DVD disposes of Blu Ray in the movie market...... Or HD DVD simply Supplants Blu Ray. HD DVD will likely have taken root in the USA in 2 years and the cheap players will make for a reversal of fortune for HD DVD to resurrect it from the [apparent] dead. HD DVD will overcome Blu Ray despite Blu Ray's current stronghold on the format war lead. HD DVD will be how we all buy HD content and BLu Ray will be for storage and/or games.


WB will find out they backed a wrong horse in this race.
 

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None of the above but a little bit of 4 & 3.

Without enough new releases, HD DVD will see very few if any new customers.

A good portion(40-60%) of existing HD DVDers will buy a couple new releases but mainly Netflix waiting for a full-featured affordable BR player.


By Xmas '08 Toshiba, Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks formally end their HD DVD committment in the face of growing but still miniscule HDM market share.


Blu-ray will become the de facto standard and see an increase in market penetration to 5% by Xmas '08. That will be the high-water mark.

Even though Feb '09 is looming, a stagnant economy and the not yet bottomed-out housing market will make Xmas '08 lackluster for CE sales.

Many consumers will opt out of digital TV for the time being with Govt subsidized converters.


A combination of high media prices, lack of content and the unwillingness of most consumers to double-dip at $20+ will hamstring BR from achieving wider adoption before other alternatives get a foothold.
 

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No option for HD DVD and Blu Ray parity which is where I think it will be. Perhaps HD DVD slightly ahead if Chinese influence kicks in. Then again if the Chinese influence is really good with inexpensive players HD DVD could be in the lead. Sony will not let Blu Ray die so it will kick along as well.


The real driver will come when the new digital TV kicks in and folks begin to replace thier TVs. Nothing but HD is available in the stores today. When the changeover occurs HD will take off.
 

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Discussion Starter #10

Quote:
Originally Posted by HT Nut /forum/post/12925142


No option for HD DVD and Blu Ray parity which is where I think it will be. Perhaps HD DVD slightly ahead if Chinese influence kicks in. Then again if the Chinese influence is really good with inexpensive players HD DVD could be in the lead. Sony will not let Blu Ray die so it will kick along as well.


.

I thought of that scenario for a quick sencond but quickly dropped it as that scenario is impossible.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland /forum/post/12925219


I thought of that scenario for a quick sencond but quickly dropped it as that scenario is impossible.

However unlikely it is only impossible to those wearing the thick blu goggles.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by HT Nut /forum/post/12925142


No option for HD DVD and Blu Ray parity which is where I think it will be. Perhaps HD DVD slightly ahead if Chinese influence kicks in. Then again if the Chinese influence is really good with inexpensive players HD DVD could be in the lead. Sony will not let Blu Ray die so it will kick along as well.


The real driver will come when the new digital TV kicks in and folks begin to replace thier TVs. Nothing but HD is available in the stores today. When the changeover occurs HD will take off.

You make a good point. I'm not going to vote in this poll since there is no "parity" option. Even if that option was there, I would only vote for it as an exercise in wishful thinking. Although I am officially dual format, I'd like to see HD DVD survive... but I can't say I am optimistic at this point in time.
 

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While 4 may come to pass, I doubt it will happen within two years. So I'm voting for 3, but with an asterisk for a little bit of 2. That is, I think Blu Ray will clearly be the only active system for HDM in the movie marketplace.


I'm red from the Black Friday sales, and I love my A3 and 40 or so discs, so it saddens me.


The asterisk is that I think HD DVD may well survive as a storage medium for computers, simply because Toshiba, a very major laptop player, has started to include them there. I don't know whether BR or HDDVD has more installed drives in the computer marketplace. (I'd love to know.) If blank media are cheaper than blank Blu discs, then I'd expect to see HDDVDs stay readable for a long time.


But, even if HDDVD doesn't take hold very strongly on computers, I'd still expect the same, because backward compatibility for computer hardware tends to be VERY strong, and I suspect that it will not add much to the cost for drives to support both formats. Current drives tend to support not only the most common formats -- DVD-R/W and DVD+R/W -- but also DVD-RAM, which never seemed to get a hold in the marketplace. (If I'm wrong, please let me know.)


When Warner made their announcement, I briefly considered trying to return my A3. But, on the plus side, I loved it. It's much less finicky with DVD-Rs and +Rs than my Oppo, while doing (to my eyes) at least as good upconverting. I already have those 40whatever discs, which I can't return, and I still want a way to watch them. And returning the A3 would be a pretty big hassle.


I expect to go purple in the foreseeable future, after I do a little research and hopefully the prices have fallen just a tad. While I wait, I'll still buy HDDVDs, on the assumption that WAY into the future -- even if Toshiba abandoned standalone player production altogether -- I'll be able to play back my accumulated library through a computer drive hooked up to the TV.


If a crystal ball told me on January 5 that computer drives definitely WEREN'T going to be able to read HDDVDs, then I'd really have had to think harder about this.


But this is one of the ways in which comparisons to Beta/VHS fail. I have a box or two of Beta recordings I made off the cable ca. 1981-1987. The physical difference between the two formats made Beta compatibility on VHS machines impossible (or vastly expensive). That shouldn't be the case this time around.
 

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#3


Blu-ray becomes the optical format of choice for games both computer and console. Blu-ray gets paramount and universal either neutral or exclusive within two years. Blu-ray competes as a finished format against HD downloads in the rental war. HD downloads will never take off as a owner's market.
 

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none of the above.

Without Combo disks Blu-ray will not reach mass market status, without more studio support HD DVD will struggle. It is hard to imagine either format taking off unless something changes.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by user4avsforum /forum/post/12925723


none of the above.

Without Combo disks Blu-ray will not reach mass market status, without more studio support HD DVD will struggle. It is hard to imagine either format taking off unless something changes.

Portable BD players.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech /forum/post/12925160


christmas 08 will tell you what will happen.

The run-up to Christmas '08 will tell us what's to happen as retailers shift into holiday mode around August or so. I suspect it will be a very Blu Christmas.
 

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You forgot many options, most notably "Both will remain a niche market". Even if HD DVD folds and Uni and Paramount both go Blu-ray, I have a hard time seeing HDM reaching any level outside the enthusiast segment in 2 years. I don't think HD optical media will die, per se, but at the rate it's going now, it will be a niche market.


Think about it. HD DVD has been on retail shelves for almost 2 years, Blu-ray almost as long. Were are we?
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by B Leisle /forum/post/12925855


You forgot many options, most notably "Both will remain a niche market". Even if HD DVD folds and Uni and Paramount both go Blu-ray, I have a hard time seeing HDM reaching any level outside the enthusiast segment in 2 years. I don't think HD optical media will die, per se, but at the rate it's going now, it will be a niche market.


Think about it. HD DVD has been on retail shelves for almost 2 years, Blu-ray almost as long. Were are we?
 
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