These are all general estimates. It's true that UHP lamps can lose up to 25% of their initial lumens in the first ~500 hours of use. The greatest lumen loss is in the first hour of use with lumen loss gradually slowing down over the life of the lamp. Lumen loss is never really linear though it gets closer to linear as it continues to age. Think of lumen loss as a curve that starts steeply and gradually becomes shallower. Lumen loss is also affected by lamp power settings. Manufacturer specs for lamp life in all different lamp power modes are estimates based on rough averages. No two lamps age exactly the same. You can't really accurately calculate how many lumens any given lamp will be producing at any given time. The only way to know for sure would be to measure with a calibrated instrument. Are you trying to calculate a specific lumen output for a specific need you have or are you just trying to understand the general performance of UHP lamps?