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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
We all know that in the PC industry, whats new today is old next month. A PC that cost $1000.00 would cost hmmm about $500 to $600 in a years time.


So, I am curious, how fast to projectors depreciate? Can I expect a $12,000 projector to be about half that in a years time?


I am going to have to save for a projector, I figure it will take me about a year to do it. That sould be more than enough time to research everything I need to know about what to look for.


What kind of technological breakthroughs will be happening in the next year?



Thanks all

m00n
 

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>how fast to projectors depreciate?


Currently very fast. Especially digital ones.


Example. My Nec LT-150 cost c. 8000 euros a year ago. Then it dropped to 3500 euros last November and now it's impossible to sell it for 2000 euros.


That's just one example.


Some projectors hold their price a little better (LT150 is end of life as a product and replaced with a zoom capable model).


>What kind of technological breakthroughs will be happening in the next year?


New "HD2" DLP chip from Texas Instruments with 16:9 ratio and increased black level (use the search to find out more).


Probably new LCOS technology generation from Hitachi or some other manufacturer (nothing sure yet). It might take more than a year though as nothing has been announced on this front.


Probably better LCD panels from various manufacturers


More Lumens


Better contrast


Smaller projectors


More resolution (pixels)


Same price (while current technology falls in price)


cheers,

Halcy


PS You can sit on the fence forever and keep on waiting for the next upcoming "better" technology. There'll always be better tech on the horizon :)
 

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Like driving a convertible Bentley while throwing hundred dollar bills out the roof... Drastic exaggeration but a fine argument for not jumping on the latest and greatest... Buy what makes you happy and try not to worry, dont suffer from PJ envy but be aware that resale is not going to help your next purchase much...
 

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Agreed.


If you think there is going to be a significant amount of money down the road at resale, you'll be sorely disappointed.


Todays best digital PJs will be dinosaurs in a couple years!


Jeff
 

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Assuming you buy at a good price (not retail), digital projectors probably lose about 20% per year.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by Halcy

[BPS You can sit on the fence forever and keep on waiting for the next upcoming "better" technology. There'll always be better tech on the horizon :) [/b]
I think there's a common misperception that there are not good times and bad times to buy into technology.


In fact, (IMHO) there are good times and bad times to buy into technology, even computers. For example, it was a bad time to buy a computer when the Pentium 60/66 came out. 486s were still selling at a relative premium to the new technology because the fastest 486/DX100s performed as well or better than the 60/66's. It really wasn't till the Pentium 90 that it was worth buying a new mid to high end computer that wouldn't be obsolete instantly.


It wasn't till the Pentium 75 that the Pentium line settled down to incremental speed improvements until the P2/PPros came out.


It was a relatively bad time to buy into Pentium 4 until the 478 based boards came out. It wasn't till the recent 533Mhz bus Northwoods that the P4 line is settling down into "incremental" speed improvements (tho' at 200Mhz jumps to 3G...).


It's currently relatively bad to buy into AMD with T'Bred (and later Hammer) coming in the relative near future.


Likewise, it's now a relatively bad time to buy into DLP with a non HD1 projector except at the very low end. It may be a bad time to even buy a HD1 projector depending on when you feel the HD2s will make it into shipping products. It appears we're entering a period of transition from incremental projector improvements to one equivalent to an architecture change in computers.


So I don't believe that sitting on the fence for six months or even a year is necessarily a bad thing during periods like this. No company or even industry can sustain constant revolutionary improvements. Things inevitably settle down into a period of evolutionaly incremental improvements.


If you're in the high end market, the start of these are the periods you'd like to wait for.


Nigel
 

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Nigel, I tried to make just this point in the "buy now or later" thread but you did it far better than I. HD2 will be here shortly and based on the reported performance of the 4:3 XGA with 12 degree mirrors, the improvement in lumen output and contrast ratio will be stunning. As you say, the LCD people are busy working on better chips.


If you have to have HT now, I say go with a used or lower-end projector like the AE100 and wait until this next generation gets out in the field and shaken down a bit. With CR over 1500 and brightness in the same range, these should be projectors that will last a while.


Dan
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by nigel_ht



I think there's a common misperception that there are not good times and bad times to buy into technology.



Nigel
From a depreciation standpoint it seems as if there are bad times and worse times!


SM
 

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I give people basically the same advice for HT equipment as I do for computers. Set the price you're going to be comfortable with, but don't buy anything until you're actually ready to use it. If you really aren't going to need it for another 6 months, don't buy it now.


Of course, I never actually follow my own advice:D
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Quote:
Originally posted by DanHouck


If you have to have HT now, I say go with a used or lower-end projector like the AE100 and wait until this next generation gets out in the field and shaken down a bit. With CR over 1500 and brightness in the same range, these should be projectors that will last a while.


Dan
Na, I am not buying now. I have a good year before I can even afford one. Which in my case is a very good thing. This way I won't be tempted to rush out and buy something that will be outdated in 6 months.


I can wait until the next technology comes out. Heh..... I have to.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by Jonmx
Assuming you buy at a good price (not retail), digital projectors probably lose about 20% per year.
I think that that's way too optimistic. The one projector I know about, the Sony 10HT, that I considered buying in Jan of 2001, was about $6K (very good price at the time). Now it's new for under $4k. The *new* price went down by 33%. If you bought it at $6K a year ago, you'd probably sell it today for $2500 - $3k - or more than 50% depreciation.


I bought a used XGA DLP (Davis) for $2500 instead. I think it's held its value very well - but if it was unmodified, I'd probably get $1500 for it. That's 40% depreciation.


My advice to someone that doesn't want to wait (though this doesn't apply to you m00n) could be to buy used/cheap at first, and plan to move up eventually. That's what I did, and I'm happy with my decision. And I haven't moved up yet!


Mike
 

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Ok, then can I presume that if someone bought their Sharp 9000 from Japan last November I could get it upon resale opportunity for, say $2500-3000? How about a $9K G15 being sold upon its first birthday for $4500?


I have not seen these types of resales, and if anyone could point them out to me please do. Now, computer products have always been notorious for rapid depreciation, but thats because of rapidly deployment of newer technologies. I do not think TI is going to come out with a DLP chip at anywhere near the same rate as Intel pops out processors. Do you?


Of course, I'm not buying a projector as an investment (i.e. to earn money), but as an enjoyment--much like a never-ending vacation to my basement! :D
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by Swampfox



From a depreciation standpoint it seems as if there are bad times and worse times!


SM


Quite right. I guess you can liken it to buying a car. Anyway you look at it, buying an automobile in any year, new or used, is ALWAYS a bad investment because all it does is depreciate--unlike buying a home.


If you always look at it from a financial standpoint as an "investment," you will never enjoy it. I look at it the way it was meant to be seen...for pure enjoyment. That's what you're really investing in. As long as you've got it in your room and enjoying it, who cares if it depreciates?

If you have the finances to buy a new, greatest and latest pj, do so and move the old one in the kids room. I'm sure they wouldn't care if it was loaded with an HD2 chip or not!


Like a very content WanMan has said...

Quote:


Of course, I'm not buying a projector as an investment (i.e. to earn money), but as an enjoyment--much like a never-ending vacation to my basement!
We would all do well to carry this attitude.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
I didn't state my question clearly enough. I am not looking at it in an investment mindset but rather, how much cheaper will this years models be next year. I want to know if a $1200 projector this year, will cost about 1/2 or what ever next year. I don't know if I will be able to buy the latest and greatet next year, so I was hoping that this years best will be much less in price next year.
 

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Depends totally on the speed of new advances... Fortunately or unfortunately digital projection is undergoing a revolution currently and is rapidly approaching critical mass where (I believe) we will soon see them in Best Buy and CostCo type stores...


Unless you really want todays best I would assemble a room based around a cheaper unit now as it teaches you so much about the usage and is enjoyable at the same time... Then when you understand projection and what you truly want and need you are more educated about your choices...


For example (without making any attempt at boasting) even a G90 is within my means but does not fit my lifestyle or home... I have enjoyed and learned so much about projection and HT since buying my 1500 Davis clone and still enjoy it... It should last me until I see a cant resist bargain or I get to the stage where I have built a house suitable for a high end HT / Audio room.. At this time I will count the choices (possibly full 1920x1080)...


I personally don't see projection technology like PC's... Currently they are moving fast but soon it will be more like audio... After all once we hit really high rez, 2k+ Lumens, 1500:1 contrast anything else will be a case of diminishing returns... You can always make use of more processing cycles but once an image is really really good where do you go ???
 

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Good Thread with plenty of insights. However I do not see the projector industry as anything like the computer industry. The PC industry had a goal to make the PC a commodity. The manufacturers set out (and sacrificed greatly from the start) to making the PC a commodity. They succeeded . . . . somewhat. It is debatable if it is a commodity since the lower 50-60% of the US population still does not own a computer. I have seen statistics where the number one consumer purchaser of PCs is someone who already owns one. (But for arguements sake lets say that the PC is a commodity.) So, Phat Phreddy I would have to disagree with you, BestBuy and Costco will not even try to get projectors because their research will find that there is no mass market for them.


I look to the reaction of this site and Marantz's reaction to the "unmentionable" kwon as proof of my assertion. Do you recall how the forces were rallyed to shut down this "lower" cost avenue. Marantz et al were not going to honor "global" warranties. Dave and Alan "lost" sales and essentially banned kwon from "marketing" on this site. The lock down was in progress. Boy, I would have thought kwon was selling communism.


I believe that the manufacturers enjoy a decent margin on these devices and they won't give that up for volume pricing. Why? Because they know the market for Home Theatre projectors will never be at commodity levels. It is a highly specialized device that requires space to use. Japan does not have the space to use them and therefore does not have a large market for them (prices are lower there as kwon has shown us). In the US, the majority of the nation does not have the space required to make this a useful commodity. So, the demand for this product is too low to make it a commodity. Although people may say they like the idea of a theater with a projector, most people would opt to renovate the kitchen or bathroom rather than set up a home theater. Go home and ask your wives; say "Honey I got a $20K bonus today, how would you like to spend it." Even on this forum I bet that less than 1 in 4 spouses would have other uses for that money. And this is from people who I would call "fanatics" for this stuff, myself included.


So don't delude yourself about the new projector prices dropping to commodity levels and don't fret about low resale values. The prices on used projectors fall because their really isn't a market for them. Also, you know that wealthy and/or fanatics who must have the latest technology will go out of their way to get it. You know because you are those people.


So, my advice is to go out and purchase a decent used projector (plenty of bargains out there). Plan the purchase when the industry is having a major release (HD-2 DLP for instance) and I guarantee someone who must have it will dump the HD-1 he has now at a bargain.


By the Way, I have a SharpVision XV-96U with low mileage on a new bulb for sale. Any interested parties for a bargain :D
 

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This is somewhat off topic but in reply to the previous post, I want to report that my local Costco actually did have a DLP projector for a while in the TV section. I can't remember who made it and once they were gone Costco didn't bring any more in, but they did have them briefly.
 

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Wanman:


As to your question about picking up a used G15 for $4K I wouldn't be surprised if you could. You say you haven't seen any ads for Z900's at $3K or G15's at $4K. I think this is because owners are too optimistic about what their used pj's are worth. You can see this trend in the CRT forum for sure. Many projectors have sat on the market for months because their owners aren't willing to sell them for what the market is willing to pay.


There are several G15's for sale right now for $7-8K, but I would be surprised if they actually sold for that much used. My guess is that they would really move at around $4K-$5K.


A good way to see where the market actually is is ebay. Look for completed auctions, take several to get an average selling price for a particular pj, and then perhaps add a certain amount to account for the ebay risk premium that gets priced into (actually out of - it's a price reduction) the sales on there and you can arrive at a pretty good idea of what the market is willing to bear on used pj prices.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by WanMan
Ok, then can I presume that if someone bought their Sharp 9000 from Japan last November I could get it upon resale opportunity for, say $2500-3000? How about a $9K G15 being sold upon its first birthday for $4500?
Buying from Japan was/is a pricing anomaly which says nothing about how projectors depreciate. What was the Sharp's street price in the US end of last year? $10K? Let's say you bought it in December last year for $10K. You used it for 6 months, and now you want to resell it, what would you get, $6500? That's 35% depreciation in 6 months.


I believe a G15 went for about $13K a year ago, so that's 30% down to $9K, and that's the *new* price. If you bought it for $13K, you'd probably be selling it for $7K, i.e. about 50% depreciation.


And if you bought a G15 today for $9K, we'll just have to check back in a year and see what you can get for it! :)


But I do agree with some of the other posts that the pace of depreciation might change.


Mike
 

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Wanman, also don't forget the power of cold hard cash. It's similar to buying a used car. Try low balling a seller over the phone and you're not likely to get anywhere.


But show up at a projector demonstration with a wallet full of $4K in hundred dollar bills ready to actually do business for that G15, and many sellers might take you up on it. There's a big difference between a guy on the phone who says he'll pay $7K and a guy in your living room with $4K in cash.
 
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