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How many think HDTV prices will fall sharply after July 1st

1113 Views 15 Replies 14 Participants Last post by  jones07
I was talking with my father-in-law the other day about when HD equipment ( like tuners, recorders, and TV's) will start dropping in cost. I told him to expect a price drop sometime around Jully 1st of this year, and a steeper drop same time next year because of FCC rulings.


What do you guys think? Do you think that their will be noticeable price drops around these dates so HDTV will be more available to the masses?
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Tuners/recorders...maybe. Televisions, doubtful. With the value of the dollar heading lower (more often than higher anyway) combined with lower consumer confidence levels, rising interest rates and low expectations of job security.....the demand side of the equation could actually cause some prices to increase.........or not :D


Mort
what are you talking about, there have already been tremendous price drops in high def equipment....my local costco has a WEGA 32/34" HD set for under $900!!! Long before HDTV, I remember shopping for a Sony WEGA set and I bought my 32" model for around $800...so if you ask me, we are finally seeing HDTV's hitting the same levels as people are used to paying for normal tv's...


I think the big thing here is that everyone thinks of HDTVs in terms of plasma and flat panel tv's which are ruled by an entirely different technology that has its own costs it has to deal with...but you can now get cheap HDTVs for under $500 (still higher than SD, but dropping rapidly)...and like I mentioned above, an excellent 32" HD set for what it cost a few years ago to get an SD set of similar build...
I think late Spring is generally considered the best time to buy electronics. I would not consider any FCC ruling into the equation. Last year I bought my set in May and got a great price. If I had waited the same set would not have been available.


IB
All American made consumer electornics will drop severely in price after July 1st (oops, never mind, there's no such thing as American made consumer electronics). I think with the dropping value of the dollar, japanese made goods may rise in price. Chinese and Mexican made goods will continue to drop since the Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar and the Mexican currency is pegged to the burrito. As for HD Tuners, that's a tricky one. By 2006 all TVs will have a digital tuner built in so no need for an STB, many people use Sat or CATV so no need for an OTA HD STB. It may or may not reach the mass market acceptance for it to become really cheap, certainly not by this summer. By the end of the year, I would expect that Plasma/LCD prices to drop because of the large amount of new Chinese factories and more importantly, the new SED/FED displays that will blow the plasma/LCD market away.
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Originally posted by buellwinkle
... so no need for an OTA HD STB. It may or may not reach the mass market acceptance for it to become really cheap, certainly not by this summer...
While I agree with you that they wont be cheap this summer, I disagree that there is no need for an ota stb. Many, many, people will need to have an ota box when the analog cutoff date comes around. Lots of old people, poor people (like a college kid myself), etc. get tv ota. There will definitly be a huge market for these boxes, becuase not everyone wants to buy a new tv, if they could buy a digital box for cheap.


Ryan
They'll be clearing out the 720p microdisplays because 1080p displays are coming out.
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Originally posted by oryan_dunn
Many, many, people will need to have an ota box when the analog cutoff date comes around. Lots of old people, poor people (like a college kid myself), etc. get tv ota. There will definitly be a huge market for these boxes, becuase not everyone wants to buy a new tv, if they could buy a digital box for cheap.


Ryan
Well, Ryan, I'll have to disagree with that partially. You see, analog isn't suppose to be cut off completely by July of 2006. It's just that all networks have to be able to broadcast in digital by then. Most, if not all, networks will broadcast digital and analog at the same time. I believe I saw a chart one time of the expected distribution of digital vs analog broadcasts within the near future. I believe it was predicting that analog wasn't going to go away for at least another 10 years after 2006.


I just believe that ATSC tuners and HDTV equipment in general will be coming down in price because of more mass production. It's true that the American economy is suffering, but I don't think we are so bad off that it would completely offset the cheapening value of technology. I'd have to agree with belsokar. Even in the short term (ie. next year) prices will be forced down faster than normal. Remember folks, this is not a normal progression of affairs. It's not a daily occurrence that the FCC enforces a complete rehaul of the way we've been communicating for years. ATSC will be established, and it will be made available to everyone. I could easily see prices being cut in half on tuners and HDTivo's alone, how much more then can we expect form TV manufactures. In fact I don't think there will be anymore "HDTV ready" TV's. All the cost differences associated in having a built in ATSC tuner (usually around $400) will be irrelevant. For instance Toshiba probably wont have their '84 line of RPTV's, and the '94 versions (built in ATSC tuners) will be brought down at least the cost of the cheaper '84 line.
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On the LCD side, computer LCD monitors continue to gradually fall. Which I would expect to eventually translate over to the TV side. Most of the small/cheaper LCD TVs out there right now aren't really HD (800x600 or lower). I'm hoping bedroom sized, true HD LCDs will be cheap come late summer.
Thomson (RCA brand) announced at CES std. def. CRT direct view DTVs with built-in over-the-air ATSC tuners at retail prices starting at less than $300. This is less than a $100 premium over similar analog sets and is what we can expect to see more of at the low end of the market replacing today's low cost std. def. analog TVs. CRT HDTV sets with built-in ATSC over-the-air tuners for $500 or less (for a 27" set) may be available by the end of this year.


Ron Jones
www.dtvmax.com
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Originally posted by bestboy4
Well, Ryan, I'll have to disagree with that partially. You see, analog isn't suppose to be cut off completely by July of 2006. It's just that all networks have to be able to broadcast in digital by then. Most, if not all, networks will broadcast digital and analog at the same time. I believe I saw a chart one time of the expected distribution of digital vs analog broadcasts within the near future. I believe it was predicting that analog wasn't going to go away for at least another 10 years after 2006.

They are looking at pushing that date back to 2009 or 2010. That's when it will actually be enforced & will be the "real" date for compliance. The requirements have not & will not be met by 2006, so that date is pretty useless at this point.
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Originally posted by Bill
They'll be clearing out the 720p microdisplays because 1080p displays are coming out.
I would think that the current crop of 720p's will drop in price as well, but without any of those average Joe 1080p's on the market yet, it is too early to tell.
I am new here so to all I say hello!


Does "720p's will drop in price as well, but without any of those average Joe 1080p's" apply to HDTV LCD's display resolution??


Thank you advance.

Rick
I just had an email offer from a reputable, authorized online dealer advertising a 42" HD Plasma (not EDTV) for $2000, I would say that is a major price drop.
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Now ONLY $2099.99 with coupon plus shipping.
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Originally posted by Marissadad
I just had an email offer from a reputable, authorized online dealer advertising a 42" HD Plasma (not EDTV) for $2000, I would say that is a major price drop.
Reasonable.......................But I'm all bought out for a few years. I should have waited a little bit more ;)


Plasma is sweet...... but I have this $3.5K DLP setting here now. :(
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