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Discussion Starter #1
sorry I know it's offtopic but did not know where else to ask.


Have you noticed there mostly dvd's in video stores compared to vhs? How long do you think it will take if ever before it's mostly Hi-def format movies we see at the video stores? 2010 maybe?
 

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This is a different time. I don't believe that the kind of transition that you saw from VHS to DVD which took five years or so will occur. I think that their business model is doomed. We will see HD downloadable movies before that happens ( at least for recent releases). This will be enough to drive BB someplace other than where they went in the last seven years or so.


Art
 

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Discussion Starter #3
''I think that their business model is doomed''?


Your answer sounds like the right one but I don't quite understand it.


Are you trying to say that it will take 5 years for the change over? or you think that BB/hollywood video won't carry HD movies? Dvds seem still new to me. Vhs felt so old/done it's time after 20 years but dvds seems very well liked I think it will be very hard to convince people to move over to something else this soon. Do you think it will happen? If you could please elaborate.


''I don't believe that the kind of transition that you saw from VHS to DVD which took five took 5 years will occur'' so what are you saying it will take less or more time?


But I hear by 2007 that all programing will be in HD. But again people with reg tv's will be able to by a little converter and still be able to watch tv so some might hold it off for a long time.


What I see is that HD tv's are very $$$ plus people who have lots of dvds at home are they really going to feel like buying the same movies again but in another format.


thanks for patience.
 

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I just think that the gradual reduction in VHS shelves replaced with DVD shelves as occurred from 1997 till now will not repeat itself in DVD to HD optical discs. I believe that we will see HD discs mid 2006 and rentable but not long after I think blockbuster will go bust. They will not be around in their present form to determine how long this will take. I just don't believe that HDDVD or BR will be the success that DVD has been.




Art
 

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It may never happend if the Blue-Ray and HD-DVD camps can't come to a single format. The market will not take two formats requiring two different players.
 

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I can see this going a couple different ways:


High-def disks could take off. However, I don't think they'll be taking off immediately. That doesn't mean new release movies/TV series wont' be available on the high-def disks. However, I can't see it taking over from DVD completely because the majority of people are not going to have high-def TV sets, for a while still.
 

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In my own experience in years past I've often predicted new technology to arrive just because we will know how to make it, and want it. That has often led me to disappointments and long delays over my initial forecasts as things ALWAYS have unpredictable (but inevitable) holdups.


So these days I tend to fudge things out a little to adjust for that. For instance I'd predict that neither blue format will arrive before about Xmas 2006 at the earliest. And I think they will mostly be ignored by the market, including Blockbuster, for another couple years. This will be due to excessive copy protection and stories of incompatibilities with with existing TV's, including those with DVI/HDMI.


After that it's anybody's guess, though I figure (holo) HVD may also be available by then.


- Tom
 

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Blockbuster, as it exists today, is absolutely an endangered species. Every time I go into one (which is not that often these days) it's never busy like it used to be and the stock seems to be going far more games oriented than movies!


Blockbuster should be moving to provide Video On Demand services that they can license out to various providers, but even that is iffy.


As far as HD DVD's, I have many concerns on that front. First of all, there's the two format problems. The movie studios just announced last week that they're postponing releasing movies for either format as they had assumed that the two sides would work out their differences. That means that even though players will be available for Christmas, there will be nothing to watch on them.


The other problem I have is that I suspect that the movie industry will screw this all up and start charging premiums for DVD'd that are in HD format, as if the costs to produce them are that much higher. Just a hunch of mine and I hope I'm wrong.
 

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I am friends with the owner of a local video rental chain (not Blockbuster). The subject of when to start offering HD movies comes up in conversation. With the initial high price of Blue-Ray and HD-DVD players, the idea of renting the player along with the movie also seems like a possible business model. Providing HD movies too soon or too late would seriously reduce profitability. Finding the sweet spot to maximize profits is not an easy task. While I agree the soft delivery of movies is the future, it will be many many years before home connections are fast enough to complete with physical media in terms of bit rate.
 

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Back in the "old days", Blockbuster used to rent DVD players. That's when there was one format.


If I were in the business, I'd be reluctant to put out that investment when there will be two formats. Also take into consideration that the majority of renters probably don't even have a HD capable TV yet.
 

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Yea, renting players, I don't see it. First most of the folks who care about the difference between DVD and HDDVD will have to have a good size expensive display. Additionally they will have to have an expensive,big, late model diisplay that is HDCP compliant. Even on my 11' wide 1080p 60 display ,good DVD looks real good, not HD but real good. The people interested in this will be folks who are into it bad like many of us. They will buy a player very very likely.


Art
 

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I think the people who inhabit AVS are a "fringe" group. Folks who can really see the difference between DVD and BD/HD-DVD seem to be in the minority to me.


Even if there was one new format I still think its success is a long shot and a long way off. Look at HDCD and SACD...


-- Cain
 

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Yup, this thread is VERY good example of the phenomenon of a relatively small group of zealots being disconnected from mass-market reality :)


maybe in suburbia Blockbuster is "doomed" as digital cable becomes more affordable and widespread but in larger cities and metropolitan areas BB will rent games, DVDs, etc. for years to come.
 

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Such refreshing sanity in this thread! As compared to a couple others of similar topic in other forums.... :)


larry
 

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I'm more interested in finding out when NetFlix may offer HiDif DVDs. I'm assuming much earlier than BB or Hollywood Video.


BTW, I see that both BB and HV are getting more visitors now because of good monthly programs. The state of broadband in US being what it is, I doubt HD dvd downloads are going to be the main vehicle of delivery in the next 10 years. In Korea ... well may be in the near future, not in the US.
 

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The answer is:


Longer than Blockbuster plans to be alive.
 

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I dont know anyone that rents from a video store anymore.....


Either they buy the DVDs or they use netflix.....


Wonder if netflix will carry the new format(s) right away?
 

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"There were nearly 3.2 billion rental transactions last year. By contrast, about half that number went to movie theaters last year, about 1.1 billion people bought DVDs, and fewer than 350,000 people watched a movie through video on demand or pay per view."


"But one major obstacle lies in the path of movies on demand, and that is the Hollywood studios. Unwilling to sacrifice the cash cow of home video sales, the studios have shown no desire to close the ``window'' -- or the time lag of about 45 days -- between releasing movies on DVD and making them available to the cable operators. Currently, the studios get about 60 percent of the list price of new DVDs, bringing in about $17 each. For each movie ordered by remote control, the studios get about $2."

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercu...s/12452158.htm
 
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