[Josh Z]

Some interesting stats:


- Since 1980, there has not been a single Best Picture winner that grossed less than $50 million at the box office.

- Since 1985, there has not been a single Best Picture winner that grossed less than $75 million at the box office. Of those, only 3 (Out of Africa - $87mil, Braveheart - $75mil, The English Patient - $78mil) grossed less than $100 million.


(Incidentally, IMDb's box office tally for The Silence of the Lambs is literally $100mil off from its actual gross, which was $130mil).


The current box office grosses of this year's Best Picture nominees:


- The Aviator - $82 million

- Finding Neverland - $42 million

- Million Dollar Baby - $44 million

- Ray - $75 million

- Sideways - $52 million


Knowing what the Academy's true definition of "Best" is, it seems obvious to me that most likely either The Aviator or Ray will win Best Picture, with an outside chance of Sideways playing spoiler.


Please let's try not to turn this thread into a discussion of the artistic merits of each movie. There are other threads for that. This thread should be a discussion of statistical patterns among Oscar winners. Thanks.


[edit: It looks like IMDb's box office for Ray was wrong. I've updated it.]

 

[jcruse]

Ray only made $20 million? I thought it was #1 for a week or two?


Other websites give Ray JUST under $75 million domestic

here and here


with more than $90 million world-wide.

 

[FredProgGH]

Quote:

Originally posted by Josh Z Knowing what the Academy's true definition of "Best" is, it seems obvious to me that most likely The Aviator will win Best Picture, with an outside chance of Sideways playing spoiler.

And that's before you factor in the sympathy factor for boning Marty so many times in the past. Aviator is a lock.

 

[Version]

As well, the picture with the most nominations has on the Best Picture award almost 85% of the time.


Another good omen for The Aviator.

 

[RobertWood]

Anybody wanna make a wager? I've got ten bucks says Ray wins Best Picture.

 

[FredProgGH]

Quote:

Originally posted by RobertWood Anybody wanna make a wager? I've got ten bucks says Ray wins Best Picture.

That would be my personal pick, for sure. But I'd be pretty shocked if the academy went for it. You never know though!!

 

[RobertWood]

It would get my vote because I think it probably was the best of the year.

But I'm pegging it to be the winner because of the sentimental factor. It's a tear jerker of unprecedented proportions. If they don't vote for it they know their consciences will bother em. I think that makes it a lock.


p.s. assuming they have consciences in Hollywood. That the one part I can't be absolutely sure of.

 

[Run4two]

Consciences would make them human. Nope, gonna have to go with The Aviator. I'll take that wager Mr. Wood.

 

[Mcklein]

Most likely is going to be Ray.........

 

[RobertWood]

You're on, Jim (but only if you call me Bob). Ten bucks it is.

 

[NewNameGuy]

If you want to look at things statistically, there are far more actors than producers in the Academy. People like to vote for their own. With MDB, they have the opportunity to vote an actor a best picture award.

 

[RBO]

Which is why while Ray will not get Best Picture, Jamie Foxx will get Best Actor.

 

[RobertWood]

Dang, Jim. How did I let you talk me into this bet. Are you sure you didn't cheat?

You're horse is at 1.38 to 1 And mine's at 61 to 1 (it's even got less votes than the wine movie). Shouldn't I get some points on this? You wouldn't want to take advantage of a poor old man on social security would you?

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.u...ture-oscar.htm

 

[FredProgGH]

I agree, Foxx gets best actor. Marty will take best director- for Raging Bull, under the pretense it's for Aviator, in fine academy tradition.

 

[RBO]

Quote:

Originally posted by FredProgGH Marty will take best director- for Raging Bull, under the pretense it's for Aviator, in fine academy tradition.

As long as its not for Gangs of New York.

 

[HTCrazy]

Interesting thread! Now that DVD sales are such a big factor in the movie's ultimate gross (50% typically?) I wonder what the results would be if you combined the grosses.


I agree that the gross for "Ray" can't be what you've listed - and no doubt it will also kick butt on DVD sales. The only thing that might hold Ray back is it's absolute lack of artistic aspirations. It's lack of style at times is so much like a lifetime special that the Academy must see that it would stand to lose some credibility for that choice.


On the other hand, that significant and successful a tribute to a great Black-American icon would be even more dangerous for them to dismiss.


I predict some heated discussions and sleepness nights.


And Robert, just some friendly advice, NEVER risk money betting that ANYone in Hollywood has anything passing for a genuine conscience. ALWAYS take the other side of that bet.

 

[HTCrazy]

Hey Josh, one other thing that occurred to me - Wouldn't winning the Best Picture Award greatly add to the films' gross all by itself? Making your theory on movie grosses self-fulfilling? Whatever film wins is almost always either extended or brought back for a very lucrative victory lap in the theaters. Not to mention the impact DVD sales.


There were some films like "Midnight Cowboy", "Chariots of Fire", and "Last Tango in Paris" that I definitely would never have seen in theaters if they hadn't won Best Picture.

 

[RobertWood]

Quote:

Originally posted by HTCrazy It's (Ray's) lack of style at times is so much like a lifetime special

Please help me understand what you mean, Crazy.

 

[sdurani]

Quote:

Originally posted by FredProgGH Marty will take best director

Maybe. With very few exceptions, the winner of the Directors Guild award usually goes on to win Best Director at the Oscars. And this year's DGA winner was Clint Eastwood. It's stastically unlikely that Marty will take the Best Director Oscar (we're discussing statistical patterns in this thread after all).


Best,

Sanjay

 

[Josh Z]

Quote:

Originally posted by HTCrazy Hey Josh, one other thing that occurred to me - Wouldn't winning the Best Picture Award greatly add to the films' gross all by itself? Making your theory on movie grosses self-fulfilling? Whatever film wins is almost always either extended or brought back for a very lucrative victory lap in the theaters.

It's true that Oscar nominations and especially wins can give movies a box office bump, but I think the extent has been overestimated. For example, if Sideways were to win, I seriously doubt that it would jump to over $100 million from where it is now. The Aviator might eek past $100mil, though (Ray is already out of theaters).

Quote:

Not to mention the impact DVD sales.

DVD sales (and international grosses) are factors I've chosen not to take into account, as I don't believe they make an impression on the Academy voters.