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Industry Forecasts on Plasma Manufacturing

805 Views 4 Replies 5 Participants Last post by  trainerdave
For those forum members following the plasma industry, you may find this press release of interest. It crossed my desk this morning.




AUSTIN, TEXAS, October 29th, 2001 - DisplaySearch, the worldwide leader in

FPD market research and consulting, revealed in the just released Plasma

Display Technology and Market Forecast section of its Alternative Display

Technology Report that the plasma display panel (PDP) market is poised for

rapid growth as prices begin to fall. DisplaySearch expects PDP costs to

fall an average of 26% per year between 2001 and 2005 through significant

reductions in material costs, larger substrates, process and equipment

improvements, innovative cell and electrode designs, lower depreciation

expenses and reduced labor costs as factories become more automated.

DisplaySearch’s 120-page Plasma Display Technology and Market Forecast

section of its Alternative Display Technology Report explains the principles

of PDP operation, examines every manufacturing step in the PDP production

process, describes new process and device technologies which will help

reduce costs, profiles all suppliers, provides actual shipments by supplier

by size for 1999 and 2000 and forecasts shipments by application by size in

units and revenues through 2005 and by supplier through 2002.

DisplaySearch’s Sam Matsuno, previously employed in the PDP market, recently

visited all major PDP producers to determine the current size and outlook

for the PDP market. The report reveals the following about the PDP market:

-Unit shipments rose 71% in 2000 and are expected to rise 178% in 2001 to

450,000 panels with capacity rising over 200% to over 1 million panels.

-Unit growth is expected to rise at an 88% CAGR from 2000 – 2005 to 3.85

million units.

-The large-area TV market will account for much of the growth rising at a

132% CAGR vs. 59% for industrial applications to earn a 75% share of 2005

units, up from 27% in 2000.

-PDPs are expected to earn more than a 10% share of the ³30†TV market in


-North America is expected to be the dominant region in the PDP TV market in

2005 with a 33% share while Europe leads the industrial market with a 30%


-PDP module revenues are expected to rise at a 53% CAGR to $4.4 billion in


-42†panels are expected to lead the market. Shipment data is provided for

10 different sizes.

-Noteworthy advances include the TERES energy recovery scheme developed by

Fujitsu Hitachi Plasma Inc. (FHP), and advanced barrier rib technology by a

host of companies.

DisplaySearch Director of Display Technology Pat Dunn evaluated the status

of PDP technology and determined that, “PDP technology in the areas of drive

electronics, cell structure, chipset integration, and addressing schemes are

in a state of flux, which is a good thing. The pace of development is

quickening and improvements are resulting in cost reductionsâ€.

The table of contents for this report can be viewed at -
http://www.displaysearch.com/sample_files/PDP_TOC.htm. The Plasma Display

Technology and Market Forecast section of the Alternative Display Technology

Report is available immediately for $2000. DisplaySearch authors more than

20 biweekly, monthly, quarterly and annual FPD-related publications in

addition to offering consulting services and hosting display conferences

worldwide. It will be co-sponsoring a market seminar in Korea on November

7th as part of FPD Expo Korea. For more information on any DisplaySearch

product or service, please contact DisplaySearch at TEL: 512-459-3126, FAX:

512-459-3127, email: [email protected] or Web: www.displaysearch.com.
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I am not surprised in the least bit of this paradigm shift ,after seeing the Fujitsu 5002 at CEDIA.

Any news on calibrating this unit?

I will make a separate post addressing the options on how to calibrate that unit, feel free to chime...
I took the 26% compounded pricing drop on plasma and applied it to the following:

42", today at $5500

50", today at $11000

60", today at $16500

(I made up the number for the 60" cause I have no idea what one really costs)

In four years, if the price dropped 26% per year, as the forecast claims it will, the following prices will be available in 2005:

42", $1650

50", $3300

60", $4950

It is hard to imagine any other big-box technology or any front-projection (with its user-friendliness issues) being able to beat this combination of price, performance and physical size in the next 4 years.

The future is quite bright for plasma. And, if the forecasts for demand prove pessimistic then volumes will ramp faster and prices will fall faster.

The age of plasma is upon us.


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Mr. Putman,

I am so glad to hear from you. I read your projectorexpert sight quite often and I really respect your work (except for your misleading peak contrast measurement ;) )

As I mentioned in another thread, a very popular current 50" display has a dealer cost of $4700!! The prices are already droping and I see more in the future. My fearless prediction is that by next Christamas some manufacturer will have a 60" with stunning picture quality for less than $7K street. I think the prices will drop by more than 26% each year with improvements in quality.

I really liked your current review of plasmas and your past review "Hall of mirrors". I did have a question regarding some of your measurement from your current set of reviews I think you might have a typo in your black level measurements. For instance, the Panasonic had a 67.2 nit white level and a .23 black level generating a peak ON/OFF contrast of 292:1, yet its ANSI checkerboard was much higher at 523:1. This is very unusual and the only way I think that it is possible is if white squares on the checkerboard are much brighter than a full white field (i.e. the Panny's and other plasma's output "sags" on bright images)

Tell me what you think and please keep up the great work.

-Mr. Wigggles
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You're quite correct, plasma makers use peak luminescence control to limit total brightness. It kicks in when the overall image is bright; however it won't act when brightly-lit areas are small against a dark background.
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