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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
According to a report in Mark Schubin's Monday Memo, Just under 96,000 HD-STB's have been "sold." I put sold in quotes because this represents every STB manufacturered from Day One until 2/28/01. This number includes STBs that are:


1. Sitting in a manufacturers warehouse

2. Sitting in a retailers warehouse

3. Sitting on Retail showroom floors

4. Installed in Cable Labs

5. Installed at Network Broadcast Tech Centers

6. Installed in consumers homes

7. Packaged in an HD RPTV/STB combo (like the Zenith)


There is no breakdown bu each catagory, just a total for all.


The number of Digital HD Ready TV's for the same time period is estimated to be well over 1,000,000.


Keep in mind that this is for a 2.5 year time period.


Lee
 

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I'm impressed. Lets say every TV station has one, which is not even close, that's 1600. Hold another 200 for satellite networks and production facilities involved in HDTV, again a very small number. And let's give the manufactures 200 for what ever. I'm sure they buy each others boxes to reverse engineer.


That's still 94,000 in the hands of paying viewers. Paying means either watching OTA with commercials or subscription services.
 

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You're also leaving out a whole slew of early HDTV's sold that had decoders built in, those should OBVIOUSLY qualify as STB's because they have the STB built in. How many of the 1 million HD's that were sold are the ones with the built in direcTV HD receiver? Or how bout the Philips 64PH HDTV's with the built in receiver? Let's get some real numbers on THAT! And infact starting later this year, all HDTV's will once again have built in HD receivers, now that 8-vsb rec's are in their 3rd generation and relatively stable. The STB count is IRRELEVANT in the future. It's the HDTV sold count you want to watch.


[This message has been edited by dpak2000 (edited 04-11-2001).]
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by Glimmie:
That's still 94,000 in the hands of paying viewers. Paying means either watching OTA with commercials or subscription services.
Whoa! Back up the statistics truck one moment, please! There were the top three categories in the lead post that read, and I modestly quote:

1. Sitting in a manufacturers warehouse,

2. Sitting in a retailers warehouse, and

3. Sitting on Retail showroom floors



These warehoused/stocked boxes cover potentially a LOT of boxes and hardly offer compelling evidence that anything of the sort regarding "94,000" boxes are actually "in the hands of paying viewers".

 

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Quote:
Originally posted by Glimmie:
I'm impressed. Lets say every TV station has one, which is not even close, that's 1600. Hold another 200 for satellite networks and production facilities involved in HDTV, again a very small number. And let's give the manufactures 200 for what ever. I'm sure they buy each others boxes to reverse engineer.


That's still 94,000 in the hands of paying viewers. Paying means either watching OTA with commercials or subscription services.
As Ray said, you forgot the ones in the warehouse, etc. I bet there are at least 10,000 in the channel (warehouses, stores, etc).

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Steve

Visit our dedicated home theater, The City Cinema.


[This message has been edited by Steve13 (edited 04-11-2001).]
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
DPAK2000,


#7 from the list - Packaged STB-HDTV RPTV's - this is the catagory that includes all the HDTV RPTV's that have a STB bulit right into them.


Keep in mind that many broadcasters have ONE OF EACH of the manufacturers STB's.


How many Circuit City, Best Buy, Sears, etc. stores are there? Each one probably has at least 2 or 3 different STB's at each location.


The number that I have heard that is actually in the hands of consumers is right around 70,000. That is about 7% of the population of HDTV ready owners. The other 93% are using their HD-Ready displays for DVD.


This August will mark the 3rd anniversary of HDTV...as presented to the consumer via HBO on DirecTV.


For those who are "impressed" with the numbers...I guess I can't agree with you. Remember everyone in the USA can see HDTV by DirecTV and Dish (except some of you CA people.) It is not neceaasry for a local broadcaster to be in anyone's area to receive HDTV. All they have to be able to do is put up a dish.


I guess what I am really saying is that so far, the HDTV displays are very successful.....but the STB's to actually receive HDTV are very dissappointing....to say the least.


Remember the 96,000 number is for almost 3 years since HDTV was introduced.


Lee
 

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Lee,

I agree the numbers are not all that impressive, but then 180+ stations have converted and 1280+ need to convert before 5/1/02 (like that's going to happen). The bottom line question is - is it worth buying a STB for the 2 or 3 channels one can receive on DirecTv or Dish. IMO, STB sales will increase as more stations come on line and more content is available (it's hard to seperate more stations from more content because without the stations there is no content either way). Then again, the new STB's are finally here and it will be interesting to see the effect they have in the next 90 days.


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Geof


[This message has been edited by Geof (edited 04-12-2001).]
 

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I'd say that this number is at least mildly encouraging. After all, what would the number have been six months ago -- maybe half of this amount, somewhere around 50,000.


Hopefully, this represents the start of a positive trend -- with more brands of tuners coming available in the last couple of months I think that we can expect to see a further acceleration of sales.


On the negative side, even if these numbers double every six months, it will still be a while before a significant number of tuners are out there by mass market definitions.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by LeeAntin:
Remember the 96,000 number is for almost 3 years since HDTV was introduced.
True. But, except for the 1st generation Panasonic(others?), the STBs have not been available for very long. The Sony and some of the other brands are still on back order. From all accounts HDTV is picking up steam!!!




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Picking up steam? I wish that was the case.


In over fours years of production introduction, we have less than .1% of US households able to receive OTA DTV. Compare that with the Brits who in less than two years have about 50% coverage.


Even worse, the broadcasters have been let off the hook in meeting their DTV conversion deadlines by the new Administration.


The transition isn't working. Alternative courses of action need to be pursued.
 

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Lets look at the products that have been available. The first "affordable" HDTV receiver was generally available in mid November of 1999. That's about 17 months ago. It was in short supply for a number of months. The next group of affordable receivers came out in the last six weeks. I use the word affordable very loosely. When the price of a HDTV receiver is at $200 sales will accelerate. Lets face it. How many people bought a DVD player when they cost six or seven hundred dollars. Most people have kids to support and the price point is just not right for them. (these people are used to spending 200 - 300 dollars for a TV including a receiver). It's not the technology, it's the price.


One more thing... If you look at the numbers and approximate 70,000 sold and just pick an avarage retail price of say...$600, that's $42,000,000 (yup forty two million dollars). Not a lot but, but not bad.

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(STOP DFAST SUPPORTER)


[This message has been edited by Steve Richards (edited 04-12-2001).]
 

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Don't forget the numbers are thru Feb at which time the new group of affordable STBs were just becoming available. A lot of the new boxes have sold recently so today's numbers would be significantly higher.


Also, when people refer to gaining momentum, it doesn't make sence to consider total sales over 3 years, just look at trends over the last few months. Things are really picking up now.


You can expect a really big surge to come in late summer or early fall.


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Rich Peterson

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More encouraging news. Yes, it's only DTV sales, but eventually people will but a STB.


It only makes sense that STB would lag TV sales. I know I waited 9 months to buy a STB after I bought my TV. And now that the COFDM/8VSB debate is OVER (at least where is matters, which is NOT on this forum, we do not make policy nor decisions), mfrs. are free to crank up the production lines which in turn will bring prices down to sell to all those DTV set owners.


Bring on the STB's. This year will be the turn around year, IMHO.

http://www.twice.com/html/pagebeta.cfm?InputKey=3294


Rick

 

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You're right, Rick. HDTV in the USA is a juggernaut! http://www.avsforum.com/ubb/smile.gif http://www.avsforum.com/ubb/smile.gif

The first time I saw it, I just knew it had to be. And there are so many encouraging articles appearing these days, all written by experts in their field. The BW>COLOR transition moved at a snail's pace compared to this.


I'll be the first in line to buy the new (Korean) Zenith decoder when it becomes available. Two different rooms with HDTV- Yow!


(and with our help, I do hope the few guys with antenna trouble will be able to fix it)
 

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Quote:
According to a report in Mark Schubin's Monday Memo, Just under 96,000 HD-STB's have been "sold."
Mark Shubin says the 95,000+ includes both STBs and sets with built-in ATSC receivers, not just STBs.


You can see exactly what he wrote here by scrolling down a few pages.



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Rich Peterson

DBS Consumer Guide Author


[This message has been edited by Rich Peterson (edited 04-12-2001).]


[This message has been edited by Rich Peterson (edited 04-12-2001).]


[This message has been edited by Rich Peterson (edited 04-12-2001).]
 

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Another thing that will effect these numbers is there are a lot of us early adopters who have more than one STB. I currently have 3, although one is a loaner unit. I'm sure there are many on this forum who have more than one STB.


Regardless of the numbers, I still feel like HDTV is taking off quite well....I know everybody is screaming for more programming, but find me a night where there is no HDTV programming of any type.....you can't! That couldn't be said about a year ago. Hell, on Tuesday nights we even have shows that conflict with each other (Judging Amy and NYPD Blue)! Things are looking good to me...and are only going to get better!


Chris (yes, the glass is indeed half full)
 

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Glad your glass is. I'm one of the other 250 million Americans who don't receive OTA HDTV. With less than 10% of the nation's broadcasters delivering OTA DTV, what can be done to get the other 90% on board? Powell tells them, no problem, you don't need to meet your deadlines and we are still waiting for that magical 8-VSB receiver that matches COFDM efficiency.
 

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Quote:
but find me a night where there is no HDTV programming of any type
You're lucky to live in an area that has local stations doing their H/DTV thing. If you move to Denver you'll be out of luck. The CBS affiliate isn't even on air with Low Power and the ABC Low Power setup can be seen by only a very small fraction of the population. Folks are signing up with a Canadian DBS service to be able to watch CBS.


This is getting back to my earlier point - why would folks in the Denver area be clamoring for HD STB's?? Denver is but one example...there are only 180 or so stations on air and if you're lucky to be in one of those few DMA's that has stations on the air that is terrific. If your not then, well, we wait.


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Geof
 

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Quote:
Bob said,

I'm one of the other 250 million Americans who don't receive OTA HDTV.
Does that have anything to do with the fact you don't own any HDTV equipment?

Quote:
Bob also said,

Powell tells them, no problem, you don't need to meet your deadlines and we are still waiting for that magical 8-VSB receiver that matches COFDM efficiency.
Ah, the COFDM thing...YES, YES, DAMNIT I SEE THE LIGHT NOW...COFDM IS the real thing....By George, those financially strapped stations will convert instantly if they could use COFDM. Damn, COFDM MAKES THEM MONEY!!! WHOOO BOY, WHY OH WHY HAVEN'T I REALIZED THIS BEFORE????


Geeze, now that I really sit down and think about it, I am quite sure the local neighborhood group fighting the new DTV towers on the grounds of RF radiation would immediately CAVE RIGHT IN...After all who wants to be radiated with 8VSB...COFDM radiation SAVES LIVES!!!! GOLLY it's a friggen MIRACLE!!! WHOOO BOY!!!!


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Geof


[This message has been edited by Geof (edited 04-12-2001).]
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by dcarl:
You're right, Rick. HDTV in the USA is a juggernaut! http://www.avsforum.com/ubb/smile.gif http://www.avsforum.com/ubb/smile.gif

The first time I saw it, I just knew it had to be. And there are so many encouraging articles appearing these days, all written by experts in their field. The BW>COLOR transition moved at a snail's pace compared to this.


I'll be the first in line to buy the new (Korean) Zenith decoder when it becomes available. Two different rooms with HDTV- Yow!


(and with our help, I do hope the few guys with antenna trouble will be able to fix it)
Here is a positive article. I am sure this article appearing in all the Knight Ridder papers will sell a lot of boxes.

http://inq.philly.com/content/inquir...life/DTV12.htm


Waht happens when this writer finds out about Australia?

 
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