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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
From the Taipei Times, parts excerpted...


Liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors are expected to surpass traditional cathode ray tube (CRT) monitors in unit shipments worldwide this year, O'Donnell said.


Global shipments of LCD monitors are predicted to grow to nearly 70 million units this year, up from nearly 50 million last year, while shipments of CRT monitors will drop to a bit more than 50 million units this year from around 60 million units last year, according to IDC.


.....


CRT TVs are rapidly yielding to the trend toward digital flat-panel TVs, which are expected to account for around 65 percent of the global TV market in 2008, according to IDC.


.....


LCD TV prices are expected to fall by approximately 27 percent per year through 2008, according to the research institute. LCD TVs between 30 inches and 39 inches, for example, would see an average price of around US$4,000 this year drop to below US$1,000 in 2008.


Shipments of LCD TVs are expected to grow from less than 10 million units this year to nearly 70 million units by 2008, taking nearly 40 percent of the worldwide TV market, IDC said.


These products are expected to be popular in countries that prefer smaller devices, like Japan, while US consumers may still prefer plasma TVs of larger sizes, O'Donnell said.


.....


"TVs can be seen as furniture, which needs to look good no matter whether they are on or off," O'Donnell said.


============


I bolded that line about the pricing because typically the reporters in these publications do some shoddy exchange-rate stuff and / or use wholesale price, module price, something that tells us nothing. Here, someone actually bothered to use the current real U.S. pricing -- which does still average around $4,000 in that size class. At More panels, less money.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
PDP is going to continue to dominate the 50" and up market without any competition. And it's going to maintain a price and performance edge in the 40-50" range -- while losing the resolution war from 45" and up to LCD for at least a few more years.


The PDP capacity is all online by next year, much of the LCD capacity is slated for 2007-2008 and beyond. Some of that might never be built as I believe the LCD market -- producer-level -- is headed for a shakeout.


Anyway, just because PDPs will be cheaper and big sizes doesn't mean LCDs won't be a good value for many people and applications. For the home-theater TV market, this won't be much of a battle. For the small-size TV market, not much of a battle. Somewhere in between, a bloodbath could shape up, put probably won't.


If you consider that half of the world's plasma capacity and half of the world's LCD capacity belong to the same two companies --> LG and Samsung
 

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HEDLEY LAMARR (ROGO): "My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives."


TAGGART (AVS Reader): "Gol darnit Mr. Lamarr, you use your tongue prettier'n a twenty dollar whore. "


Apologies to Mel Brooks, Slim Pickens and Harvey Corman.


Great stuff Rogo - lets see if it comes to pass.
 

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Will LCD ever look good enough for Rogo to say it's the best? No! Then answer me this question...why should the rest of the world of manufacturers and consumers be stupid and produce it and purchase it?
 

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Maybe it would be better for me to put it this way:


A certain number of people buy rear projection LCD because it fits their needs, but few of them will say that it is the greatest technology when it comes to picture quality.


The same is true when it comes to owners of flat pane LCD. Few of them will say it is the best technology when it comes to picture quality.


People who swear by Plasma, Direct-view CRT, RP CRT or DLP won't say that LCD is the greates when it comes to picture quality.


Flat panel LCD is quite expensive.


Some people even say that LCD is the WORST technology when it comes to picture quality...I believe Gary Merson said that.


I don't get it! Most of the posters at AVS don't believe LCD in either of its forms is the best technology when it comes to picture quality, though they may concede that it sometimes meets the needs of some people.


Why is it then that SO MANY LCDs are going to be produced and so many people are going to purchase them? Are the masses absolutely STUPID?! Is rear projection LCD such a low priced item that it will SWING the masses to purchase it?


If these things are true then how many of you great prognosticators out there are going to tell me that Picture Quality improvements for LCD will be SO GREAT that the masses will SWING to purchase LCD a product which the majority of posters at AVS don't think gives the best Picture Quality? Do the masses LOVE INFERIOR Picture Quality? Is that why they're going to purchase LCD?


I'vwe asked this question before and Rogo said I'm not going to explain it so you "Can Get It". Can anybody besides Rogo explain it? I'm not after a battle against LCD as a technology--I just want to know why the masses are going to CHOOSE a Non-Supeior technology.


I doubt that I'll get an honest answer. Why? Because you'll either have to say that LCD gives the greatest picture--you can't say that. If you do say that LCD doesn't give a good picture you'll be putting down a technology that some members love and it is against the Pro Sales slant of many of the Video Industry supporter-posters here at AVS.


You may TRY to tell me that with economies of scale that LCD will be a great value. I guess you'll mean that it will be a great value for the masses, but not for everyone else.


What I'd really love to hear for once would be the truth: The Video Manufacturers are going to sell the masses a non superior product because they can make money at it--it doesn't matter what its Picture Quality i. and if you say anything against its Picture Quality at the Forum then your opinion is not welcome. If this is not true then straighten me out...LCD I just don't get it!
 

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Hey Jet Champion,


Here's my $0.02...


I really like LCD and it was essentially the only technology I was interested in when I first chose to buy an HDTV.


I might be misinterpreting your words, but it seems like you're saying LCD is inferior to the other technologies because it's picture quality isn't as good.


My belief is that there's simply alot more aspects to display technologies than picture quality. (Though picture quality is unarguably one of, if not *the* most important.) Each current technology has it's respective strengths and weaknesses, what is most inferior or superior depends on your needs and interests.


For example, I for one *do* think Plasma looks better than LCD (usually), but I did not ever consider the purchase of a PDP. For me, the main problem is the burn-in issue. I hope to build a HTPC one day, and because of that, plasma's burn-in properties (even though they get better all the time) make PDPs far inferior to LCDs... for my purposes. Likewise, RPTVs and CRTs can produce some amazing pictures, but a big downside is that I live alone and could *never* move a 200lb CRT around by myself.


For me, LCD is the perfect technology. It's compact, tough (theoretically no burn-in or picture degredation) and the picture, even if not quite on par with Plasma, is excellent. For someone else though, RPTV, PDP or another technology may have the perfect combination of features.
 

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I guess I'm in the minority, cause I still prefer the image from a good CRT and the Sony HD 34XBR960" set will be my next purchase. At less cost than almost any LCd and all Plasmas, it has the best picture available compared to any flat screen. I don't need a large screen now, so I'm getting the best picture at half the cost.

Later I will buy a LCD for the bedroom as they improve. The newst Sony LCDs are already almost there in quality IMO.

Plasmas are only useful as a big screen in a larger room, which i don't have.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Gigaguy wrote:

"I guess I'm in the minority, cause I still prefer the image from a good CRT and the Sony HD 34XBR960" set will be my next purchase. "


Sometimes, the minority clinging to an older, less-expensive technology gets benefits that the majority does not. I don't know what that Sony costs, but if you've got the space for the cabinet depth, I personally see your choice as a wise one. Others? Well, even my positive opinion shouldn't sway your purchase. So enjoy. :)


Jet wrote:

"Why is it then that SO MANY LCDs are going to be produced and so many people are going to purchase them?"


Well, first of all they are pretty compelling as PC monitors due to size and convergence issues. And so people will be buying a lot of them even if none were sold for TVs.


Second of all, for TVs of up to at least 30", they are likely to be about as inexpensive as CRTs are today (well, at least name-brand CRTs) within 5 years. They are inherently "progressive scan" and they take up no space and use little power.


Third of all, critical picture quality has never been a selling point in those small sizes and it never will be. Sorry, but that's just a fact. And LCDs are certainly good enough to make for a solid viewing experience up to that size. Even my Sharp 37" -- based on last-year's state of the art -- is not bad. Is it videophile quality? Well, not to my eyes it isn't. But it's still good. So for the smaller sizes -- at least -- it's going to be more than good enough to satisfy 95% of people on picture quality.


You then added, "You may TRY to tell me that with economies of scale that LCD will be a great value. I guess you'll mean that it will be a great value for the masses, but not for everyone else."


And I say: Yes, but so what? Videophiles don't buy small screens. For 50" and up there'll be either LCDs that exceed every metric of today's LCDs or the market will be owned by plasma, SED/NED, and someday OLED.... LCD never has to succeed above 40". It might well do so (actually, in my opinion, it will command 20-30% of the 40-50" market and about 5-10% of the above 50" market), but it doesn't need to.


Plasma might be able to scale cost effectively down to 32", but it won't work in the sub 30" range... Lots of TVs are small. Someone needs to build them. People like thin TVs. You do the math.


Mark
 

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I guess I will never get it. I think LCD is better style wise when it comes to computer displays, but I still like CRT better. Even I know that a CRT notebook would be ridiculous.


And yes I can see why you don't have to produce to BEST of something for people to buy it. People will always buy Fords and Chevys regardless of whether Rolls Royce or Porshe is in buisness.


My not getting it may have more to do with what I think are LCD's potential. I tend to see it forever as what it is now forever. Actually improvements have made the technology better now tham what it was even two years ago. Maybe it really can get better.


I'm not hook, line, and sinker for any technology--they all have flaws and shortcomings. I guess my greatest fear is that one day LCD will TOTALLY takeover whether it is a great technology or not. This DOES happen sometimes. The other fear I have is that LCD will become de facto Video's mode of transmission not only because of Style considerations, but because the Video Industry can make a bigger margin on it than other products.


What I basically fear is that our choice will become significantly NARROWED in the future for every reason imaginable BUT Picture Quality! If you don't think this is possible look at computer displays--it doesn't matter if me and an Army of Picture Quality Experts could PROVE that CRT yields a better picture than LCD--in some sizes CRT isn't made anymore--I'm sure this will be the case with all sizes. The important point is that it will have happened REGARDLESS of the Picture Quality element of the equation.


Now don't get me wrong. I have nothing against people that buy LCD because it meets their needs. Sometimesw people need large viewing angles or need a display in a bright room or simply need a small display. I also hope that LCD Picture Quality will continue to improve and I love the fact that LCD lovers love their displays.


I just hope that at the forum we never get so TOLERANT of each other's choices that we influence the Video Industry to feel like we will eventually in an overwhelming mass EMBRACE any technology that they can build for a profit and get a minority ot the AVS members to purchase.


What's good for the Video Industry does not always equal what is good for the consumer. I respect other member's choices and my basic attitude is viva la difference! To the Video Industry I say: That doesn't mean informed consumers can't SEE the difference. Meet less discriminating in Picture Quality Consumer's needs but never forget the discriminating, picky people at the forum who love a good picture and will always hond you and expect you in a small number of products or technologies to try to produce THE BEST!
 

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I think Rogo mentioned what I was thinking : LCDs are going to

push CRTs off the desktop. That's a process that accelerated as soon as LCDs got down in price. There are valid issues concerning plasmas being too large for consumers in many parts of the world. LCD also has more potential for improvement than plasma. In five years things will be much clearer. I never expected LCDs on a desktop 7 years ago and now see them as dominating the market. Things are too fluid in this technological environment to place any bets on what the future will look like beyond a couple years.
 

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If LCD wasn't the best technology in the world I wouldn't mind if 95% of the people bought it as long as I still had the CHANCE to buy a better different technology at a reasonable price!


Maybe I'm just paranoid. I would hope that 5 years from now I would still be able to buy Plasma or DLP at 50-inches and that at least one company would still be making 34-inch widescreen CRTs--I doubt that widescreen CRTs will still be produced 5 years from now--Rear Projection CRTs are real iffy--if they get rid of Plasma and DLP in 5 years it will be the End of the World!
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by Jet Champion
I'm not hook, line, and sinker for any technology--they all have flaws and shortcomings. I guess my greatest fear is that one day LCD will TOTALLY takeover whether it is a great technology or not. This DOES happen sometimes.
Rest assured, this is most unlikely to happen. Rogo already gave a few reasons why. Also newer technologies are coming to the market that might or might not replace everything you see in the stores right now, including LCD.


Quote:
The other fear I have is that LCD will become de facto Video's mode of transmission not only because of Style considerations, but because the Video Industry can make a bigger margin on it than other products. [/b]
LCD as a video mode of transmission??? What actually do you mean? There is no such thing. LCD is a display technology, not a mode of transmission.

Quote:
I just hope that at the forum we never get so TOLERANT of each other's choices that we influence the Video Industry to feel like we will eventually in an overwhelming mass EMBRACE any technology that they can build for a profit and get a minority ot the AVS members to purchase.[/b]
This is something you don't have to worry either. This forum as well as some others has seen quite fierce fights, which could be well described as lacking tolerance. And anyhow since when manufacturers started listening to the opinions of the consumers? :)
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by TauRus
Rest assured, this is most unlikely to happen. Rogo already gave a few reasons why. Also newer technologies are coming to the market that might or might not replace everything you see in the stores right now, including LCD.
I agree - Hoping for a 80 inch OLED that you can carry in a poster tube and hang on the wall with sticky tack. :D
 

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Speaking of OLED, LCD displays might start using LEDs for backlighting, rather than fluorescent tubes. NEC/Mitsubishi LCDs using Luxeon technology for backlighting should come out this fall. See "RGB LED backlight is ready to use" .


To quote: "In addition, backlights built with Luxeon DCC light sources enable display manufacturers to produce a new breed of products offering key performance benefits, including: vibrant colour produced through Luxeon technology that expands the colour gamut by as much as 45%, far outstripping the colour intensity and fidelity available in conventional CCFL products; reduced motion artefacts, minimising the blurring effect created by fast-moving images because the Luxeon DCC can be programmed to blink at much higher speeds than CCFLs without compromising brightness or lifetime; optimised colour and white point settings, enabling users to switch between 9600K and 6500K white points without losing colour contrast when they move from computer applications (such as spreadsheets and word processing) to video applications (such as movie viewing); infinite dimming capabilities, enabling high visibility in bright daylight environments and minimal glare in dark environments; rugged, unbreakable, mercury-free, low-voltage design that withstands rough handling, vibrations, ambient temperature fluctuations and even dropping, thanks to the absence of filament and glass; and constant brightness over the life of the backlight, with the ability to maintain screen brightness without affecting lifetime performance."


I have fluorescents throughout my house, they are great for ambient lighting, but for task lighting Halogens, Halides, LEDs & incandescents are much better. If you look at the cost per lumen of LED's, they are not cheap! Actually in full sunlight I can read the small print in the newspaper (stock quotes) without my reading glasses (hmm, fiber optic sunlights?)! Seems like I temporarily get my 15-20 vision back... :)
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by rogo
PDP is going to continue to dominate the 50" and up market without any competition. And it's going to maintain a price and performance edge in the 40-50" range -- while losing the resolution war from 45" and up to LCD for at least a few more years.
So you see LCD just staying below 50"?


The resolution war may bring very interesting marketing twist: people

may perceive anything less than "true" 1920x1080 as inferior.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Irkuck: Primarily below 50"... There will be larger-than-50" panels for sale, but they will simply sell in smaller numbers...


I do agree than anything less than 1920 x 1080 will ultimately be a downer. But I think you'll see 50" plasmas with that resolution by 2006.


Mark
 
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