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FWIW, The Inquirer is running a story here about predicted price drops in LCD FP TV sets in 2004, based on market research from iSuppli.
 

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The Economist had a recent article, the month of which I don't remember, that was on flat panels and they noted an expected drop in LCD pricing by as much as 40% in the coming year. From the way it was written, it didn't look like they were implying the same would be true for plasma.


Can anyone comment on the increasing marginal costs of producing bigger and bigger LCD's vs. Plasma's? Its obvious that 15/17 inch LCD is getting dirt cheap.
 

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What am I missing here? From the above:


"TV screens panel prices will fall this year bt between two and five per cent, with 21-28 inch sizes the so-called sweet spot, iSuppli expects."


Ooooh, 2-5%!


"The Economist had a recent article, the month of which I don't remember, that was on flat panels and they noted an expected drop in LCD pricing by as much as 40% in the coming year."


This, I really doubt. I don't have a handy forecast on LCD, but plasma is slated to fall 20-25% this year. In fact, you can actually already see this in marketplace.


Plasmas, btw, are much cheaper to make in big sizes; it's currently a multiple or more to make a big LCD. Even at 30" or so, it's current cheaper to make a PDP than a TFT, but that will change over the next year or so. For bigger sizes, it's going to take much longer.


I don't have the economist, but the article ran December 18, 2003 (not free on the web). So if anyone can excerpt it, cool.


Mark
 

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Never mind, I found the article in the Sept. 4 issue (the Dec. 18 one was dull).


The article has nothing whatsoever to say about pricing.


So I'll go with 20-25% declines for LCD this year. That would still leave the "elite" 30" TVs from Sony, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, retailing for >$3,000. It's leave the Sharp 37" at >$4,000.


From all indications, the 45-47" LCDs are debuting at $8000-11000. And of the ones I saw, only the Sharp intrigued... The Samsung is weird shaped, the BenQ looked horrid, the Westinghouse wasn't nearly finished and I'd be wary of dropping that kind of coin on a new entrant.


The LG 42", being used by Sony and probably an LG-branded one, was also nice.


Mark
 

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Mark, It was a short article and the number I quoted appeared toward the end. I'd re-read, but its at a relatives house 1.5hrs away. Anyone else have it?
 

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The Economist, 20 December 2003, page 97:


"Flat-panel TVs will account for just 3% of the 160m televisions sold this year, reckons iSuppli, rising to 8% by 2005. This is still an "early adopter" phenomenon. But as more suppliers enter the market and new factories come on stream, Ms Patel expects prices to fall by 40% over the next year. Bear that in mind before you buy." Patel = Riddhi Patel of iSuppli.


Perhaps Patel underestimates the demand for all of these expensive toys?


Also, 40% at what size!?!? All of them? Unfortunately, there just isn't enough information to extrapolate too much, though it serves as an interesting (even if probably/possibly inaccurate) data point.


-RandomDave
 

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Hey, I'm replying to my own post, how novel!


Article today online with Wired Magazine, basically going over the same information (or at least the same sources) as The Economist article --
Wired Article on LCDs and Plasmas


Note that Patel in this article is saying 40 percent drop by 2006, which is very different than 40 percent drop in 2004, or even 05.


Article is worth a read, though nothing truly new or earthshattering in it.


-RandomDave
 

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So the one thing that frustrates me hugely about iSuppli is when they forecast pricing for a >>range>at
 
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