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i've been reading about rptvs a little bit and lcos, and though a year or two away from real penetration into the hdtv market, it seems like lcos promises all of the strengths and none of the weaknesses of dlp and lcd. no rainbows, no burn in, no screen aging, higher resolution (at a given price), esp over time due to moore's law. if intel really gets involved, and lcos delivers on even most of these promises, seems like other rptv technologies would gradually disappear (i.e. can't compete with better quality at lower price point), kind of like what's happening with crt?


i guess this is kind of a random post and possibly a repost, but just interested in people's thoughts.
 

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Lcos has been here already. If you are talking about newer iterations of the same technology, then you could argue the same about all the other existing technologies. Just don't count on Intel.
 

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Moore's law has nothing to do with resolution, LCoS, or television.


Toshiba, Philips, optima have all gotten out of the LCoS game at this time.


Please do more reading, LCoS is not the end all be all of TV technology.
 

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i personally believe there is a reason why those companies are not developing those technologies. they might have reached some sort of barrier that intel seems...or will have passed (perhaps due to their billions dollar r&d budget)


nevertheless, i still see CRTs being around for a least another good 10 years. the technology is still arguably the best out there...superior PQ, great blacks. the problem of burn in is an issue, but is becoming less of one, especially with features such as grey side bars and reducing your contrast/brightness.


the only thing i see stopping CRTs is the day when we all run microsoft windows media center, and the screen on there might burn in...however, knowing microsoft, if it does go mainstream and people are still using crt, they will do something that will eliminate the possibility of burn in.


lcos is still in development, and until their prices drop significantly, and there isn't a monopoly of intel making the sets...i don't see it overtaking CRT, or any of the other technologies, LCD, DLP anytime soon. we must also considering that with each new model, LCDs are getting better blacks, and with each new model, DLPs are reducing rainbows. the CRT wasn't perfect at first..but is damn close now.


just my 2 cents.
 

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This is not a knock on the OP at all, I promise, but I am tired of bored of the LCOS PR machine.


This is a technology that has been nothing at all but a curiousity and a commercial failure for years. For all intents and purposes the inventor of the technology -- JVC -- had to go outside to get a version of it that could prove manufacturable for their current LCOS RPTV line. And that line, while somewhat meritorious, is hardly industry leading in performance.


It's not the best performance in contrast ratio, resolution, color fidelity, price, what have you.


The endless announcements of the Intels of the world belie a track record:


* JVC intros the D'Ahlia line a few years back, bringing their LCOS technology to RPTV -- failure


* RCA intros an LCOS line a year later -- failure


* Samsung tries to introduce an LCOS line -- failure and they go running to DLP, make hundreds of millions, stop looking back


* Philips invents their own LCOS chips, builds RPTVs -- failure


The "success" of this technology is in the form of some front projectors that are quite good but still nowhere near state of the art in contrast ratio except for a $30,000 Sony. Then there is the aforementioned JVC-but-not, 2nd-time around attempt that while successful, represents about 1/20th of the microdisplay market.


In the months since Intel's vaunted announcement, they've subsequently informed the world their first chip has failed, watched TI and Epson score even more design wins, and Sony has announced a $10,000 LCOS-based RPTV.


While I personally am an LCOS fan, it's very hard for me to believe it will ever capture even a 1/4 of the RPTV market. If it were the "perfect" RPTV technology, surely it'd capture more than half right? Oh, and when I say I don't think it'll get to a quarter, I could be telling you that I also wouldn't be surprised if it ends up closer to 10% than to 25%.


Mark
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Quote:
Originally posted by Jordan420
Moore's law has nothing to do with resolution, LCoS, or television.


Toshiba, Philips, optima have all gotten out of the LCoS game at this time.


Please do more reading, LCoS is not the end all be all of TV technology.
eh, yeah i guess. i'm not really interested in exhaustively informing myself about hdtv technologies, but i read a couple articles that were kind of interesting with regard to lcos, so just figured i'd post here to see what other people think. anyway thanks for the responses.
 

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Judging by people's reaction to the Sony SXRD from CEDIA, it looks like this one might be the real thing. All they have to do is get the yield up, cost down, and trickle it down into their more affordable line of TVs.
 

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1) Independent of CRT strengths and weaknesses, CRTs will fade from the market, becoming niche players over the next 5 to 10 years. Why? Money. CRTs are a mature technology, and are stable or increasing in price (vacuum, special glass, lead, hi voltages, etc). LCDs and other technologies are still maturing and the price is dropping 20% per year or 2% per month, depending upon who you're reading. Do the math. LCDs and perhaps other technologies, will become the cheaper low end of the market, even before they are cheaper than CRTs, due to power consumption, size, weight and image perceptions. Read some industry articles and see how some companies are scheduling shut downs of CRT plants. Another way of looking at this would be to view SEDs as the "new" CRT, flat and still using the emitter/phosphor approach. So if SEDs make it to market, and are successful, the CRT can be considered to live on.


2) LCoS has long been viewed as a long term winner. Every new technology must be developed, and not every company successfully does it. JVC has been selling their own design and manufacture analog LCoS front projectors for years. They use digital LCoS for consumer RPTVs due to cost, maintainability and volume manufacturability concerns. They buy LCoS silicon substrates from Aurora and put their own "LCD" portion on it and build the rest of the TV (note that car companies buy diesel engines and other subassemblies- why should TV companies be any different?). Do a search and you'll see many threads on LCoS. Sony and JVC are not the only companies pursuing the technology. You'll see postings about how much JVC is expanding manufacturing and sales and how their version of LCoS avoids pitfalls other companies fell into. You'll also read postings made by people blindly opposed to LCoS, unthinkingly emotionally critical. These people are easy to pick out and discount. Early models of anything are more likely to have problems, and design and manufacturing improve as the production run progresses. No technology springs full blown, it must be developed and improved and there are failures along the way. Two years ago few people thought DLP would succeed, and now look how many companies have jumped on THAT bandwagon over the last year. Even though some people don't like it, and will denigrate people who buy it, the JVC D-ILA LCoS based units are successful, work, and are selling well. They will be one of a number of technologies available. It'll probably be 10 years or more before any one display technology (again) grabs over 50% of the market (if ever). Right now, I'd put my nickel on OLED displays doing that, but you can only get them in cell phones and PDAs today.


No display technology is perfect. People can choose their own trade offs. Saying any one technology is the one true holy grail, or another is trash (or worse) is like saying the only decent horse in a horse race is the one you bet on. Never mind different horses win on different days on different tracks.
 

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I think what he meant was that the holy grail was equal to the tech that has the least amount of flaws and great value for the money. I'd have to think LCoS is that tech currently. LCDs have black level issues, and DLPs have rainbow/headache/fatigue issues. CRT has burn in, fade out and is big and heavy. LCoS has a few other issues as well (warped screen, color abberation, black crush) but most seem to be due to design and/or manufacturing issues, not limits or results of the technology. If they fix that color aberration issue, I think they'll over take DLP once the price comes down a little more or Sony comes out with a consumer model of their LCoS. I like SED and OLED but that is so far off that it isn't an option. I hope JVC fixes some of their issues and gets another run out before Christmas. If not, I may have to go with the Sony LCDs.
 

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JVC is sked to release tuner models of their current models in November. Adds in ATSC tuner, cablecard, firewire, digital audio out, etc. These will be the "795" models. I think JVC has a good track record of shipping on time, so maybe we'll really see them next month- and maybe have a powerbuy on them.
 

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DLP will be the winner from a penetration point of view. It has matured to a reasonable point and now companies can minimize their investment in getting it to work. Consumers don't seem to be bothered by the general DLP issues. Texas Instruments beat the street, (reduced expectations) from strength in DLP chips. The have momentum and the sales channel.


LCOS will be perfect as soon as they address all of the issues. I'd like LCOS to continue to mature, but I don't see others that are using DLP risking the R&D dollars.
 

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I agree that DLP is a winner. I almost bought one, and there is still a chance I might.


But LCoS, at least in the Sony and JVC D-ILA versions, is also a winner. This is not winner take all. The view from LCoS is more film like; DLP, more video like.


Some like Buicks, some like Hondas.
 

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JVC seems to be selling very well.


Each place I try to buy it... it is sold out.


Intel needs to find a new revenue stream. They are hitting a brick wall with their CPUs development due to heat issue. They are also playing catchup to create a 64bit desktop chip that still runs 32bit code as fast as AMDs chip. But do not expect it to happen soon.


Since Sony is planning a LCOS model and JVC's units are selling well... I would not count LCOS out.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by seantyler
JVC seems to be selling very well.


Each place I try to buy it... it is sold out.


Intel needs to find a new revenue stream. They are hitting a brick wall with their CPUs development due to heat issue. They are also playing catchup to create a 64bit desktop chip that still runs 32bit code as fast as AMDs chip. But do not expect it to happen soon.


Since Sony is planning a LCOS model and JVC's units are selling well... I would not count LCOS out.
The JVCs are doing quite well, but there has also been a supply issue. I bought mine on Sept. 6th, and I'm told it probably won't be in stock until November.
 

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The rainbow issues of DLP will eventually end its growth. Rainbows are simply an unacceptable flaw.



Even though I think the dreaded "screen door effect" of LCD is unacceptable, others are not bothered by it. LCD RPTV prices are going down and sales will rise. LCD's are not for the so-called hardcore videophile do to very poor black level/shadow detail. LCD seem poised to take over, with all of its PQ imperfections, its fast journey to the masses (Joe & Jane Six Packs) cannot be denied.



CRT's will be around a little longer, but WAF, the younger demograhics and the consumer electronics press is playing a big role in killing off CRT, even though most so-called video display experts would claim the CRT's still produce the best overall PQ.


Also, the death CRT represents the decline in home theater hobby.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by seantyler
JVC seems to be selling very well.


Each place I try to buy it... it is sold out.


Intel needs to find a new revenue stream. They are hitting a brick wall with their CPUs development due to heat issue. They are also playing catchup to create a 64bit desktop chip that still runs 32bit code as fast as AMDs chip. But do not expect it to happen soon.


Since Sony is planning a LCOS model and JVC's units are selling well... I would not count LCOS out.


If you were out here where I live you could find them all over. Just because the store where you live doesn't have them doesn't mean they are selling well. With the exception of SDE I find the JVC's as flawed as LCD's, with problems producing black level/shadow detail.
 

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"LCoS has long been viewed as a long term winner."


My problem with the above statement is that it's a myth -- grain of truth blown largely out of proportion. Throughout the LCOS era, HTPS LCD and DLP have grown the market exponentially and LCOS is noise. I suspect it becomes a bit more noise, but never more.


" Every new technology must be developed, and not every company successfully does it. JVC has been selling their own design and manufacture analog LCoS front projectors for years. They use digital LCoS for consumer RPTVs due to cost, maintainability and volume manufacturability concerns. They buy LCoS silicon substrates from Aurora and put their own "LCD" portion on it and build the rest of the TV (note that car companies buy diesel engines and other subassemblies- why should TV companies be any different?)."


This is true, but all it proves is that the only company that's not JVC that has come close to commercializing LCOS is UMC (via Aurora and on its own). And the performance of the set leaves something to be desired -- although I have been trumpeting its market success as much as anyone.


" Do a search and you'll see many threads on LCoS. Sony and JVC are not the only companies pursuing the technology."


No, but they are the only ones getting anywhere. And Sony is still in the stage where hundreds of units per month is the goal not tens of thousands.


" You'll see postings about how much JVC is expanding manufacturing and sales and how their version of LCoS avoids pitfalls other companies fell into. "


I don't know about that. They seem to have traps of their own laid in front of them.


"You'll also read postings made by people blindly opposed to LCoS, unthinkingly emotionally critical. These people are easy to pick out and discount. Early models of anything are more likely to have problems, and design and manufacturing improve as the production run progresses. No technology springs full blown, it must be developed and improved and there are failures along the way."


This would be fair if DLP hadn't so clearly blown past its early issues and become a mega-hit. Sorry, but in the same calendar time, giants like Samsung, LG, Panasonic, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have made DLP the technology so clearly to beat -- despite it being sole sourced from a U.S. company. That speaks volumes. Loud volumes.


" Two years ago few people thought DLP would succeed, and now look how many companies have jumped on THAT bandwagon over the last year. Even though some people don't like it, and will denigrate people who buy it, the JVC D-ILA LCoS based units are successful, work, and are selling well. They will be one of a number of technologies available."


There we agree. LCOS gets its fraction of the RPTV market. But that's it. It never catches DLP in unit sales. Never.


" It'll probably be 10 years or more before any one display technology (again) grabs over 50% of the market (if ever). Right now, I'd put my nickel on OLED displays doing that, but you can only get them in cell phones and PDAs today."


So I think no tech ever gets it again in the home-theater-sized display. LCD -- and then OLED -- will own 30-32 inches and below for the next 20 years. But in the larger sizes, LCD, OLED, plasma, SED, NED, whatever will keep on keeping on and while I too think OLED could trump them all someday, the fact that LCD and plasma are getting so cheap so quickly are going to make them hard to displace. CRT only lost the throne cause cheapness came with unacceptable compromises in weight and form factor (it wasn't performance).


Mark
 

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One of the nicest things about dlp is the lack of any convergence problems--ever!--because it is a 1-chip product. Rainbows from the color wheel are the price paid for this, but I think it is well worth it. After any 3-beam TV has been out a while one notices lack of convergence--it's a perpetual problem.
 
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