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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Samsung SDI: Pricing for 42-inch PDP TVs to fall to US$1000 by 2006

Calvin Shao, Yokohama; Carrie Yu, DigiTimes.com [Thursday 21 October 2004]


Samsung SDI predicted ... 42-inch (plasma display panel) PDP TVs [sales] will double to 7.5 million units next year since prices are expected to fall to US$2,099, down from US$3,999 currently. By 2006, the price will fall to US$1,000, according to Chul-Han Bae, CTO, executive vice president and general manager of Samsung SDI’s PDP business division.


PDP technology is advancing quickly ... Bae said. He noted how the expected life span for PDP TVs has grown to 60,000 hours, and the power consumption required by a 42-inch PDP TV is about the same as that needed by a 36-inch CRT TV. He also estimates that in the future the contrast ratio of the company’s PDP TVs will improve to 10,000:1, up from 3000:1 currently.


Samsung SDI ... now has 26-27% of the over 37-inch PDP market, he added.


Samsung SDI currently has one PDP plant. It houses two lines, with respective monthly capacities of 50,000 and 80,000 units, Bae indicated. The company is constructing a second plant, which will also have two lines. These new lines will have respective monthly capacities of 120,000 and 160,000 units. The first plant mainly produces 42-inch PDPs, while the second will focus on 42- and 50-inch PDPs, Bae noted.


In related news, the South Korea-based maker posted its third-quarter results yesterday. The company’s PDP shipments increased to 210,000 units from 180,000 in the previous quarter.

* Capacity of 1.56 million units annually now.

* Capacity of 4.92 million units annually already under construction.

--> Those are for just this one company !!!

---> Samsung alone will ship more than 1 million plasmas next year going away

* Technological advances in lifespan and contrast

* Pricing to fall dramatically over the next 24 months



Those are the facts and opinions of the largest plasma mfr. on the planet. Apparently, they are not caught up in the smokescreen of others.


Note: I edited a little out and also corrected an obvious error in the first paragraph.
 

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Maybe this will cause an explosion in HD programming. Currently, there is little to choose from...and it is expensive. One can only hope.


Mike
 

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160,000 units monthly. It's one plasma every 17 seconds, from single line - meaning there is no assembly operation which needs more then 17 seconds to be completed. Wow.
 

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This must also mean that yields are up. That was always a bugaboo with plasmas traditionally.


I wonder what 50" models will be going for 06? I guess between 2K-3K. With Fujitsus still costing $8K :)
 

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That's $1000 for ED models? When digital cable is "mandatory" or whatever in 2007, who will want one of those? There'll be way too much hidef stuff on.


I think Samsung needed the new plant because of all the ones busted by shipping companies between the warehouses and our doorsteps.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike52
Maybe this will cause an explosion in HD programming. Currently, there is little to choose from...and it is expensive. One can only hope.


Mike
Ditto.


Great info Rogo. :)


-JR
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by rogo
Samsung SDI: Pricing for 42-inch PDP TVs to fall to US$1000 by 2006

Calvin Shao, Yokohama; Carrie Yu, DigiTimes.com [Thursday 21 October 2004]


Samsung SDI predicted ... 42-inch (plasma display panel) PDP TVs [sales] will double to 7.5 million units next year since prices are expected to fall to US$2,099, down from US$3,999 currently. By 2006, the price will fall to US$1,000, according to Chul-Han Bae, CTO, executive vice president and general manager of Samsung SDI’s PDP business division.


...


Those are the facts and opinions of the largest plasma mfr. on the planet. Apparently, they are not caught up in the smokescreen of others.

Maybe I just see the glass half empty - but of course the largest plamsa mfr is going to say they're going to increase volume significantly. I'm sure you could find an annual press release for every large company saying the praises of what their company will do in their respective industry over the next few years. Capacity is meaningless - Dell could produce 2x PCs, but is that going to happen becaause they have the capacity? Let's see a long term trend that says one quarter spike isn't something that happens annually.


Hell, I work for one that does the same thing that's 2x the size of Samsung, if what we said would be true I doubt we'd have lost 15k jobs over the past 5 years.


Great if it does, of course. I just wouldn't jump on the hype bandwagon yet.


Mike
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
"That's $1000 for ED models? When digital cable is "mandatory" or whatever in 2007, who will want one of those?"


Well, perhaps some of the few million people today who don't see the difference between those and HD models -- especially from way they view them.


---------------------


"Maybe I just see the glass half empty - but of course the largest plamsa mfr is going to say they're going to increase volume significantly. I'm sure you could find an annual press release for every large company saying the praises of what their company will do in their respective industry over the next few years. Capacity is meaningless - Dell could produce 2x PCs, but is that going to happen becaause they have the capacity? Let's see a long term trend that says one quarter spike isn't something that happens annually."


Except that (a) Dell doesn't announce this (b) Samsung is forecasting the ability to serve an industry of 22 million units annually when in reality the most bullish forecasts for 2007 are around half that.


The point here is not that Samsung is going to run flat out next month on capacity, but that they are heavily invested and believing in the technology and their ability to increase demand through lower prices. I don't know why that strains credulity at all.


The flat-panel display market is unambiguous growing by hiigh-double-digit amounts so I'm confused where the core doubt lies. And the prices of displays have come down 20-30% per year for the past 5 years, too.


Mark
 

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Quote:
Except that (a) Dell doesn't announce this
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1040_22-5418321.html


Of course they annouce increased capacity. They have to justify the investment to investors / holders. In Dell's case they also need to show increased US investment after the entire India mess. (which,as a sidetrack is somewhat similar to how Samsung needs to invest in S. Korea after LG annouced its 10 year 21 billion (USD) plan to make S. Korea the number 1 LCD manufacturer in the world - which to me is odd since it carries 21% market share already) My point here is just that every large company has some sort of press release exactly like this.

Quote:
...

I don't know why that strains credulity at all.


The flat-panel display market is unambiguous growing by hiigh-double-digit amounts so I'm confused where the core doubt lies. And the prices of displays have come down 20-30% per year for the past 5 years, too.


Mark
I don't have any doubt that prices will decrease and sales will increase. I certainly didn't mean to infer that prices will not go down. I'm just saying company PR is nothing more than that - PR. If we took every press release as gospel the stock market would look much different and Half Life 2 would have been out 2 years ago (still not out!). I guess a big plant and some growth don't convince me that plasma will become a number 1 growth segment for tv media.


-Mike


I would buy Samsung stock for many other reasons tho ;)
 

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Any predictions on when we'll see 1080P plasmas?
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Mike, sorry didn't mean to say they never announce additional capacity. My thought got munged around so it didn't make sense. Dell does not announce 2x-ing of capacity when they know growth is only 10-15% (which is roughly what unit growth is for Dell), that's all I meant.


TimV, very big ones, next year (70+ inches). Smaller ones in 2006...
 

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I believe LG's 71" er is 1920 x 1080.


It is a little unclear exactly how this will be marketed in the US.


Price definitely in the 10's of thousands.


I bet one blue marble that next year will see the annoucement of the first 1080p 50" set.
 

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Quote:
TimV, very big ones, next year (70+ inches). Smaller ones in 2006...
Thanks for the update rogo.


Quote:
I bet one blue marble that next year will see the annoucement of the first 1080p 50" set.
That's the size I am waiting for. $3K anyone?? :)
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by rogo

"That's $1000 for ED models? When digital cable is "mandatory" or whatever in 2007, who will want one of those?"


Well, perhaps some of the few million people today who don't see the difference between those and HD models -- especially from way they view them.
I had assumed that those people would be out of denial by then.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
"I had assumed that those people would be out of denial by then."


Nonsense. Stand 12-14 feet away from an ED plasma and an HD plasma from the same mfr. and I defy you to pick the HD plasma reliably.


A lot of people will set up a living room or bedroom with an even longer viewing distance than that. Why spend $1000-2000 more for something you can't see?
 

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The real concern is that: Did Rogo just put the industry in a tailspin as people decide to wait just over a year in order to save another 50% off their purchase?:D (just kidding!)
 

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MOD NOTE:


WE ARE GETTING COMPLAINTS ABOUT THIS THREAD. SO THIS IS TO LET YOU KNOW THAT IT IS ON NOTICE. ANY MORE COMPLAINTS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSED.


NO FLAMES, BASHING, PUT DOWNS- YOU KNOW THE ROUTINE.


THANKS.


Dave
 

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Maybe I'm confused, or else just slow. If price drops are 30% per year and they are $3k now they won't reach $1k until the end of 2007. That's a mighty long time to wait.


OTOH, similar drops would price a 50" at around $15-1800 by then.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by TimV
That's the size I am waiting for. $3K anyone?? :)
Unfortunately, I don't think you'll ever see a 50" PDP and a 1080p for that matter for $3K or less MSRP. I think the lowest MSRP they would ever get is $4 to $5K. And something form Fujitsu would probably go no lower than somewhere between $6 to $7K MSRP.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
wdrazek, I think the point is that Samsung is saying: "From here, we see the price dropping more quickly than it has been." I'll take this to mean the following: Right now, you can buy a consumer plasma for about $2500. To get to $1000 in two years, the price needs to fall 60% -- which is ~35% per year compounded. That's fast, but not out of the realm of possible.


silver said, "Unfortunately, I don't think you'll ever see a 50" PDP and a 1080p for that matter for $3K or less MSRP. I think the lowest MSRP they would ever get is $4 to $5K."


I really disagree that 50 inch units won't get to that price. If you consider the current state of affairs, a major mfr. like Panasonic, you get current model prices that look like this:


42 ED: $2999

42 HD: $5500, 1.83x

50 HD: $7000, 2.33x


Leaving aside my typical rant about the "HD premium" at 42 making little sense, let's just take the ratios and do some extrapolating...


(1) Assume Panasonic can compete with Samsung -- I won't actually do this, I'll assume Samsung will be cheaper to make the test "harder", but in reality, I see Panasonic competing with anyone


(2) Take the Panasonic 42 ED down to $1000 in the following hypothetical steps:


$2100 in 2005, 30% lower than now

$1500 in 2006, 30% lower than year before

$1200 in 2007, 20% lower than year before


(3) Use the ratios above -- ratios I think are silly and I actually believe there'll be ratio compression over time, especially at Panasonic...


42 ED = $1200

42 HD = $2200 (1.83x the ED price; I believe this will instead be $2000)

50 HD = $2800 (2.33x the ED price; and below $3000)


Now, what's interesting is to extrapolate a bit more...


(a) It's clear that making pixels costs about as much as making panels. The 42 HD is actually probably very expensive to me, somewhat near as costly as the 50 HD (save for the # per substrate). That must be due to pixel count.


(b) It's clear that 1080p is coming.


(c) Panasonic, et al., will have a 1080p process that can scale down to 50 inches eventually. They have no choice and I believe the technological leap is actually fairly small. Panasonic already has a pixel dimension that would allow 1080p at sizes
 
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