More Definitive Proof of Plasma's Soaring Growth, oh, and $1000 42" by 2006

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Ditto.


Great info Rogo.


-JR

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Maybe I just see the glass half empty - but of course the largest plamsa mfr is going to say they're going to increase volume significantly. I'm sure you could find an annual press release for every large company saying the praises of what their company will do in their respective industry over the next few years. Capacity is meaningless - Dell could produce 2x PCs, but is that going to happen becaause they have the capacity? Let's see a long term trend that says one quarter spike isn't something that happens annually.


Hell, I work for one that does the same thing that's 2x the size of Samsung, if what we said would be true I doubt we'd have lost 15k jobs over the past 5 years.


Great if it does, of course. I just wouldn't jump on the hype bandwagon yet.


Mike

"That's $1000 for ED models? When digital cable is "mandatory" or whatever in 2007, who will want one of those?"


Well, perhaps some of the few million people today who don't see the difference between those and HD models -- especially from way they view them.


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"Maybe I just see the glass half empty - but of course the largest plamsa mfr is going to say they're going to increase volume significantly. I'm sure you could find an annual press release for every large company saying the praises of what their company will do in their respective industry over the next few years. Capacity is meaningless - Dell could produce 2x PCs, but is that going to happen becaause they have the capacity? Let's see a long term trend that says one quarter spike isn't something that happens annually."


Except that (a) Dell doesn't announce this (b) Samsung is forecasting the ability to serve an industry of 22 million units annually when in reality the most bullish forecasts for 2007 are around half that.


The point here is not that Samsung is going to run flat out next month on capacity, but that they are heavily invested and believing in the technology and their ability to increase demand through lower prices. I don't know why that strains credulity at all.


The flat-panel display market is unambiguous growing by hiigh-double-digit amounts so I'm confused where the core doubt lies. And the prices of displays have come down 20-30% per year for the past 5 years, too.


Mark

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http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1040_22-5418321.html


Of course they annouce increased capacity. They have to justify the investment to investors / holders. In Dell's case they also need to show increased US investment after the entire India mess. (which,as a sidetrack is somewhat similar to how Samsung needs to invest in S. Korea after LG annouced its 10 year 21 billion (USD) plan to make S. Korea the number 1 LCD manufacturer in the world - which to me is odd since it carries 21% market share already) My point here is just that every large company has some sort of press release exactly like this.

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I don't have any doubt that prices will decrease and sales will increase. I certainly didn't mean to infer that prices will not go down. I'm just saying company PR is nothing more than that - PR. If we took every press release as gospel the stock market would look much different and Half Life 2 would have been out 2 years ago (still not out!). I guess a big plant and some growth don't convince me that plasma will become a number 1 growth segment for tv media.


-Mike


I would buy Samsung stock for many other reasons tho

MOD NOTE:


WE ARE GETTING COMPLAINTS ABOUT THIS THREAD. SO THIS IS TO LET YOU KNOW THAT IT IS ON NOTICE. ANY MORE COMPLAINTS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSED.


NO FLAMES, BASHING, PUT DOWNS- YOU KNOW THE ROUTINE.


THANKS.


Dave

wdrazek, I think the point is that Samsung is saying: "From here, we see the price dropping more quickly than it has been." I'll take this to mean the following: Right now, you can buy a consumer plasma for about $2500. To get to $1000 in two years, the price needs to fall 60% -- which is ~35% per year compounded. That's fast, but not out of the realm of possible.


silver said, "Unfortunately, I don't think you'll ever see a 50" PDP and a 1080p for that matter for $3K or less MSRP. I think the lowest MSRP they would ever get is $4 to $5K."


I really disagree that 50 inch units won't get to that price. If you consider the current state of affairs, a major mfr. like Panasonic, you get current model prices that look like this:


42 ED: $2999

42 HD: $5500, 1.83x

50 HD: $7000, 2.33x


Leaving aside my typical rant about the "HD premium" at 42 making little sense, let's just take the ratios and do some extrapolating...


(1) Assume Panasonic can compete with Samsung -- I won't actually do this, I'll assume Samsung will be cheaper to make the test "harder", but in reality, I see Panasonic competing with anyone


(2) Take the Panasonic 42 ED down to $1000 in the following hypothetical steps:


$2100 in 2005, 30% lower than now

$1500 in 2006, 30% lower than year before

$1200 in 2007, 20% lower than year before


(3) Use the ratios above -- ratios I think are silly and I actually believe there'll be ratio compression over time, especially at Panasonic...


42 ED = $1200

42 HD = $2200 (1.83x the ED price; I believe this will instead be $2000)

50 HD = $2800 (2.33x the ED price; and below $3000)


Now, what's interesting is to extrapolate a bit more...


(a) It's clear that making pixels costs about as much as making panels. The 42 HD is actually probably very expensive to me, somewhat near as costly as the 50 HD (save for the # per substrate). That must be due to pixel count.


(b) It's clear that 1080p is coming.


(c) Panasonic, et al., will have a 1080p process that can scale down to 50 inches eventually. They have no choice and I believe the technological leap is actually fairly small. Panasonic already has a pixel dimension that would allow 1080p at sizes