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More Kaleidescape HD info
Kaleidescape just enhanced their FAQ today answering these Qs:
Q: What is Kaleidescape doing to support the Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats?
A: Kaleidescape, Inc. is a member of both the Blu-ray Disc Association and the HD-DVD Promotion Group. The existing Kaleidescape Server is already fully capable of storing the content from these next-generation optical disc formats. Kaleidescape plans to build components that can import Blu-ray and/or HD-DVD discs, as well as play back content in VC-1 or H.264, two video codecs for Blu-ray and HD-DVD content.
Q: Why doesn't Kaleidescape already offer a HD-DVD player, when Toshiba began shipping one in April 2006?
A: HD-DVD players and discs are now available, and Blu-ray players and discs are expected to be available in June 2006. However, the copy control technologies for these next-generation optical discs are not yet final and are not supported by the early HD-DVD and Blu-ray players. Industry observers fear that when all the copy control technologies are finalized, many early HD-DVD and Blu-ray players will be unable to play discs that use these technologies. Kaleidescape will announce its product plans for Blu-ray and HD-DVD when the full specifications and licensing terms become available.
I think these are fair answers for now. Implicit in these answers is that we'll have to eventually buy a new reader and new players for blu-ray and HD-DVD originated content (due to the new codecs employed). In addition, Kaleidescape continues to say that they are planning on distributing their own HD movie content, either via transport disks or some other method.
My uneducated guess is that it'll be end of '06, if we're lucky, to see any of this new HD stuff come to Kaleidescape. Which is probably how long it'll take for blu-ray and HD-DVD to work out the majority of their bugs and interop issues anyways.
Q: What is Kaleidescape doing to support the Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats?
A: Kaleidescape, Inc. is a member of both the Blu-ray Disc Association and the HD-DVD Promotion Group. The existing Kaleidescape Server is already fully capable of storing the content from these next-generation optical disc formats. Kaleidescape plans to build components that can import Blu-ray and/or HD-DVD discs, as well as play back content in VC-1 or H.264, two video codecs for Blu-ray and HD-DVD content.
Q: Why doesn't Kaleidescape already offer a HD-DVD player, when Toshiba began shipping one in April 2006?
A: HD-DVD players and discs are now available, and Blu-ray players and discs are expected to be available in June 2006. However, the copy control technologies for these next-generation optical discs are not yet final and are not supported by the early HD-DVD and Blu-ray players. Industry observers fear that when all the copy control technologies are finalized, many early HD-DVD and Blu-ray players will be unable to play discs that use these technologies. Kaleidescape will announce its product plans for Blu-ray and HD-DVD when the full specifications and licensing terms become available.
I think these are fair answers for now. Implicit in these answers is that we'll have to eventually buy a new reader and new players for blu-ray and HD-DVD originated content (due to the new codecs employed). In addition, Kaleidescape continues to say that they are planning on distributing their own HD movie content, either via transport disks or some other method.
My uneducated guess is that it'll be end of '06, if we're lucky, to see any of this new HD stuff come to Kaleidescape. Which is probably how long it'll take for blu-ray and HD-DVD to work out the majority of their bugs and interop issues anyways.
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But you do see a better than 90% chance of this hapenning next year?
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Do you mean the chances that it will happen this year vs next or happen next year at all? As long as MMC is all it's supposed to be in the final spec and the studios don't rape us for the privledge of offloading content, K will implement it by next year at the latest. The timeline will depend on when the spec is finalized and how long it takes them to roll out the new hardware. Personally, I'd lean more towards next year than this year. Given the delays that have occurred at just about every step of the way with these new formats, I wouldn't be surprised to see the final AACS spec take longer than expected or the establishment of these MMC "clearing houses" take longer than necessary to get established. If the stars align just right though, those things could come to pass by mid-year and K could roll out the new hardware by year's end. My money's on next year.
That cost for the MMC privledge is still the wildcard IMO. I've said before and I'll say again, studios can use unreasonable MMC fees to effectively prevent people from doing it. It will be very interesting to see which studios play ball and which balk. That doesn't change whether K can produce the hardware solution, but it does very much impact how useful the new hardware would be.
Jeff
| Originally Posted by CINERAMAX But you do see a better than 90% chance of this hapenning next year? |
That cost for the MMC privledge is still the wildcard IMO. I've said before and I'll say again, studios can use unreasonable MMC fees to effectively prevent people from doing it. It will be very interesting to see which studios play ball and which balk. That doesn't change whether K can produce the hardware solution, but it does very much impact how useful the new hardware would be.
Jeff
Good stuff, ptrubey, thanks! And Jeff, I agree with you w.r.t. the timeline and open questions (cost).
I may get shot for this and/or flamed to a charcoal, but if the details could be worked out for content protection, why would there need to be a "player" to record to the hard drive if the content could be paid for and downloaded? I know that QQQ and others think that Bluray and HD-DVD have a long and prosperous life ahead, but why does there need to be the "delivery disc". It seem to me that is the point Joe Kane made in his HD guys interview. If (I know that is a big if) the technical details can be worked out about mulitple copies, then it would seem to me that say buying and downloading an HD movie to a system like the Kaleidescape doesn't need the format discs themselves.
Ok, I have my cyanide pill ready if the pain gets to bad.
Ok, I have my cyanide pill ready if the pain gets to bad.
I know Kaleidescape would love that model, and I wouldn't be surprised if they are working on it. The problem from a mass market perspective is that there just isn't enough broadband penetration---far, far, far more homes have DVD players than high-speed internet connections. The challenge K would face then is to convince the studios to play by a new set of rules for its limited audience, rules that the mass market isn't prepared for.
Randybes, I, among many, have been promoting this very concept off and on since the turn of the century (literally) to various Hollywood studios and broadband service providers. There simply is no need to rely solely on physical media delivery.
Bringing the bits over broadband to a hard disk HTPC like appliance makes perfect sense and can be done with ultimate security.
If K could this delivery system with the studios, then with just this feature, it becomes ALOT more interesting to me.
With a ********** like distribution network, the bandwidth distribution costs could largely be offloaded. Delivery would take days, but who cares? If it took 2 more days than Netflix I would be happy all the same.
Bringing the bits over broadband to a hard disk HTPC like appliance makes perfect sense and can be done with ultimate security.
If K could this delivery system with the studios, then with just this feature, it becomes ALOT more interesting to me.
With a ********** like distribution network, the bandwidth distribution costs could largely be offloaded. Delivery would take days, but who cares? If it took 2 more days than Netflix I would be happy all the same.
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Good point about broadband penetration. I hadn't thought of that. I guess I am spoiled thinking everyone has it. Do you know what the penetration is broadband to regular dial-up?
| Originally Posted by Michael Grant I know Kaleidescape would love that model, and I wouldn't be surprised if they are working on it. The problem from a mass market perspective is that there just isn't enough broadband penetration---far, far, far more homes have DVD players than high-speed internet connections. The challenge K would face then is to convince the studios to play by a new set of rules for its limited audience, rules that the mass market isn't prepared for. |
Good point about broadband penetration. I hadn't thought of that. I guess I am spoiled thinking everyone has it. Do you know what the penetration is broadband to regular dial-up?
60% of US homes have broadband... I think broadband penetration is not a hindrance anymore.
THe other issue is that "hollywood" trusts discs. they are in a mindset where the physical media is what they think about. there is a perception that a non physical distribution will be rampant with theft and piracy.
The real truth is probably the opposite. FOr many reasons
The real truth is probably the opposite. FOr many reasons
Dizz, I am not sure that's the case. DVD's, in any case, have been horrible compromised security-wise. I think the physical media issue is one where Hollywood is scared of the unknown. They know how much money DVD makes in rentals. They have no idea what will happen to that cash cow if they move to an online distribution model. Certainly I suspect a lot more, but then again, I am not sitting in their shoes.
i should have said that discs are what they know. but they are sort of the same. the unknown is not trusted in this case.
Look at all the business models that should have changed in the internet age that have not. and have subsequently lost lots of money on lost opportunity.
Look at all the business models that should have changed in the internet age that have not. and have subsequently lost lots of money on lost opportunity.
agreed. That's why I believe this business commmunity to be the greediest and simultaneously most inane group of businessmen ever.
Actually, let me quote Niccolò Machiavelli:
“Innovation makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old regime, and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new. Their support is indifferent partly from fear and partly because they are generally incredulous, never really trusting new things unless they have tested them by experience.†-- The Prince
And he died in 1527!
***BTW, i lifted this quote from K's website. they are using it as one way of explaining the lawsuit against them.
“Innovation makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old regime, and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new. Their support is indifferent partly from fear and partly because they are generally incredulous, never really trusting new things unless they have tested them by experience.†-- The Prince
And he died in 1527!
***BTW, i lifted this quote from K's website. they are using it as one way of explaining the lawsuit against them.
OK, fair enough about the 60% figure: except how many people have that broadband connection delivered to their A/V stack? And how many are competent enough make that happen if they needed to? Put another way, how many of them have that connection wired solely to their single PC...
I still think that the "wired home" has a long way to go before it is mainstream.
I still think that the "wired home" has a long way to go before it is mainstream.
even though they all have broadband, what kinds of speeds are there and REALIZED consistently. i have comcase and am supposed to have 4 meg down... i ran three tests in the last five minutes and i have either 2.6, 9, 7 or 8.4 meg... Wow, thats pretty freakin fast.
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MG, with the amount of broadband routers sold each year in this country, it appears far more than 60% of homes are routing IP to more than a single PC 
But yes, I agree that most don't have a good CAT5 Ethernet connection to their AV area.
ANd I am not a big believer in .11n WiFi replacing CAT5.
| Originally Posted by Michael Grant OK, fair enough about the 60% figure: except how many people have that broadband connection delivered to their A/V stack? And how many are competent enough make that happen if they needed to? Put another way, how many of them have that connection wired solely to their single PC... I still think that the "wired home" has a long way to go before it is mainstream. |
But yes, I agree that most don't have a good CAT5 Ethernet connection to their AV area.ANd I am not a big believer in .11n WiFi replacing CAT5.
Bit Torrent would require people to have a decent upload speed to be able to help. My office connection is very fast download ~ 5mbit, but only about 128-256kbit upload speed.
While downloading sounds great, remember that these films will be around 20gb each and think of the bottleneck on a system if I order 3 films per week. If I had a real throughput of 200KB per second then it would take 27 hours per title assuming that nothing interrupted the stream and that I had no bottlenecks choking down that speed. I could do about 6 films per week that way.
Then even if that works, what will my new broadband cost be when my downloads average 1/4TB per month?! That would be just 12 HD films, mind you.
We would still be sucking an elephant through a straw - a big McDonalds straw mind you, but a straw none the less.
While downloading sounds great, remember that these films will be around 20gb each and think of the bottleneck on a system if I order 3 films per week. If I had a real throughput of 200KB per second then it would take 27 hours per title assuming that nothing interrupted the stream and that I had no bottlenecks choking down that speed. I could do about 6 films per week that way.
Then even if that works, what will my new broadband cost be when my downloads average 1/4TB per month?! That would be just 12 HD films, mind you.
We would still be sucking an elephant through a straw - a big McDonalds straw mind you, but a straw none the less.
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Are we talking about potential Kaleidescape clients ? Are the stats on broadband penetration relevant in this discussion ?
Art
| Originally Posted by Michael Grant OK, fair enough about the 60% figure: except how many people have that broadband connection delivered to their A/V stack? And how many are competent enough make that happen if they needed to? Put another way, how many of them have that connection wired solely to their single PC... I still think that the "wired home" has a long way to go before it is mainstream. |
Art
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