[Jfreeman]

Based on pure speculation, I predict the following:


1) NEC will release a HD2 16:9 DLP projector sometime in the Spring or Summer 2003 at a reasonable sub-7K street price which shall become the definitive, benchmark projector in the HD2 class, representing the absolute peak of HD2 performance in terms of black level, color reproduction, and, relative to these features, brightness. Marantz, Infocus, Seleco, Runco, Toshiba, Yamaha, and Sharp will all occupy second and third tier positions to the NEC.


2) At next year's CEDIA, following the introduction of NEC's reference HD2, or - at latest - CES 2004, some of the other manufacturers will announce/display a HD3 or equivalent that will no doubt feature a resolution of 1920x1080, the logical next step, among other improved features.


3) In late 2004, we'll see another crop of HD4 type 1920x1080 panels.


4) 2005: as the price of chips drop, home theater consumer-model 3 chip DLPs will be introduced by the major manufacturers at the 10K price point.


5) Post-2005: I have no idea, but there is the possibility that the entry of Sony's GLV may threaten to displace DLP as the leading FP imaging technology, unless Sony fails to sub-license the technology to competitors. Also, on a related note, by 2006, I predict mass production of DLP RPTV's will replace the conventional RPTV entirely.

 

[Jfreeman]

Also, with respect to (3), I think by mid-2004, with the proliferation of 1080p DLP projectors for the high-end consumers, we'll begin to see sub-$5K 720p featuring the older HD2 chips.

 

[Tryg]

Quote:

Originally posted by Jfreeman I predict mass production of DLP RPTV's will replace the conventional RPTV entirely.

Can you make a 21" dlp TV and get to the consumer for $200. I don't think so. The cheap small Tube based models are here to stay for tha average consumer.


I've really never understood why there is such fierce competition at that end only to make $10? a TV? The answer of course lies in scales of pay. $18 an hour for American workers, $2.30 for Mexican workers and $0.35 for Chinese workers. Now $10 profit a set starts to look pretty good in China.


Anyway if they were able to move away from Tubes at the low end, the Asian countries that make many of these sets will likely not pay TI for their DLP chips. LCOS chips on the other hand have many manufacturers that would be very competative.

 

[Tryg]

Quote:

Originally posted by Jfreeman 1080p DLP

There is no such thing

 

[ShePearl]

Quote:

...some of the other manufacturers will announce/display a HD3 or equivalent that will no doubt feature a resolution of 1920x1080, the logical next step, among other improved features.

I think we will see Archimedes colour wheel, and dimple-removed DMD before native 1080p DMD. But, hey, who knows... anything can happen tomorrow.

 

[David Mendicino]

Hey Tyrg...


Maybe you misinterpreted, but he was not talking about CRT direct view, but CRT rear projection TV's, if I understand correctly.


Unless, of course, you were just randomly talking about 21" tube tv's and their replacement...

 

[rlindo]

I think tryg had no idea what he was talking about in his two posts.


Someone please show me where you can buy a RPTV for 200 bucks. Oh that's right...tryg just brought up a reply that has nothing to do with what the original poster said. hehe


Also tryg, he is saying by 2004 there will be 1080p DLP pjs. He is not saying there are now. Are you trying to imply only LCOS pjs will EVER be 1080p?

 

[Tryg]

Quote:

Originally posted by rlindo Are you trying to imply only LCOS pjs will EVER be 1080p?

Yes. Until there is some evidence that suggests otherwise. Do you have some?


forgive me for overlooking the RPTV. However the theory thing still aplies. Asain countries will continue to build MUCH cheaper CRT based projection models than DLP. DLP may control the upper end, but "cheapness" is an american consumer tradition that will likely never be slayed.

 

[David Mendicino]

Tyrg,

two things,

1) You may be right about the CRT RPTV thing...but, I propose this....much like what is happening with FP CRT, does the posibility not exist that parts and whatnot might start to dimish with CRT projection tubes, etc? This would imply a shift to DLP, and don't forget, LCD RPTV's.


2) You must admit it is naive to say there will NEVER be a 1080p DLP unit. It is bound to occur, maybe not now, or in a few years, but it will happen.

 

[JimP]

I predict another big player will enter the manufacturing process for the chips/panels/whirlythingys that make these projectors work. I wouldn't be surprised if it'll be Intel or AMD. After all, if you not selling computer chips you might aught to be building something that will sell.

 

[Tryg]

Quote:

Originally posted by David Mendicino 2) You must admit it is naive to say there will NEVER be a 1080p DLP unit. It is bound to occur, maybe not now, or in a few years, but it will happen.

Not really naive. It's more naive to say it WILL happen, and in the next 5 years. Especially since:


1. It hasn't happened yet.


2. Even commercial dlp for cinema has only managed 1280 x 1024. To go to 1920 x 1080 would be a monumental jump for this technology and would likely make the pojectors huge. Hitachi already makes a .7 inch 1920 x 1080 chip. A similar product from TI would be very large requiring a large expensive light engine.


3. If it hasn't happend for commercial applications yet, it likely wont get to the consumer class for many many years. I MAY change my mind on this IF and when I see 1 shred of evidence that such a projector exists and is being sold.


LCOS has already had a 2048 x 1536 product for over a year and are capable of 4000 x 3000 with their new chip. Well past 1920 x 1080. It may be more likely that different technology like GLV or Laser CRT or something will be present be for 1080p DLP for the consumer. Further, to deliver a 1080p product to the customer will have to happen in a competative environment. TI can and will control what is released to control their portion of the market and maximize profits. With LCOS there are many manufacturers all capable of trumping each other.

 

[noah katz]

"I think we will see Archimedes colour wheel, and dimple-removed DMD before native 1080p DMD."


I agree. And I don't think we will see 1920x1080 pj's for at least a few more years. Only a small minority of consumers will be willing to pay for the hardly discernible resolution increase, at a reasonable size, over 1280x720.

I think the emphasis will be on reducing costs and marlet penetration of the latter.

 

[dwx]

Tryg is correct, LCOS will kill DLP basically because of the monopoly control that TI exerts over the technology. Additionally, LCOS light path designs are simpler, and the technology seems to be all around less expensive to implement than DLP.


With Sony, Toshiba, JVC, Hitachi, Samsung and others all independently developing LCOS technology competition is going to drive it mainstream pretty quickly. In case you haven't noticed the 900 pound gorilla here (Sony) hasn't touched DLP, and is sticking with LCD until their HD native LCOS stuff is ready.


The actual question to be asked here is, "How long with DLP survive?"


Let the flames begin , I know posting this is thread for DLP enthusiasts is going to generate at least a few...


-Dave

 

[David Mendicino]

I guess we could say that it is an either/or situation.

It is not correct to say "never", nor is it correct to say "will"


Evidence, as you have so throroughly put forth, points to the former...but who knows!


As for DLP going under....it will NEVER happen Joke..joke...who knows what will happen....let me break out my crystal ball.

 

[Bytehoven]

Quote:

Originally posted by Jfreeman Based on pure speculation, I predict the following:

You forgot to mention...


... due to increased demand for high quality projector lamps, production efficiencies have been realized and prices have finally dropped from their low earth orbit. The life expectancy of a projector lamp has also been extended 2.5x over previous lamp designs.


I also have to wonder... with the trend in smaller projector package sizes, can we look forward to the adapted cliche, "is that a projector in your pocket, yada yada yada?"


;-)


RJ

...

 

[noah katz]

"LCOS will kill DLP basically because of the monopoly control that TI exerts over the technology."


I disagree; TI is in the same position as Intel. They have competitive technology which they can manufacture at reasonable cost, and for which they charge what the market will bear. If a competitor shows up with something good, they have plenty of room to undercut their prices and still make money.


"Additionally, LCOS light path designs are simpler, and the technology seems to be all around less expensive to implement than DLP."


I also disagree with this. All 3-chip designs need expensive optical systems which are far more complex than a 1-chip DMD. Color wheels are cheap and relatively low tech.


Not to mention that there's no indication whatsoever that LCOS can get anywhere close to DLP on CR. Next year DLP's will be at 4000:1 with the dimple fix.

 

[Deja Vu]

I am wondering if NEC will stay one step behind the other DLP HT manufacturers. I think, in the next 4 or 5 months it may introduce a HD1 pj in the $5,000.00 U.S. range with a ton of innovations. This way it doesn't threaten the stability of the market place keeping everyone semi-happy. The consumer gets a bargain and the other manufacturers keep buying the HD2 chip from TI, which keeps TI happy and of course they have NEC there to buy the HD1 chip. Once the others have made some money from the HD2 DLPs NEC can enter the fray and introduce a pj that will blow evereyone else's HD2 machines out of the water. By that time (a year from now) the others will be moving on to the next latest and greatest TI chip and won't complain too much.


The big problem with the above scenario is that NEC will completely kill the used DLP projector market or maybe even the entire used projector market!!


Cheers,


Grant

 

[tycoondog2]

Quote:

Originally posted by noah katz " I also disagree with this. All 3-chip designs need expensive optical systems which are far more complex than a 1-chip DMD. Color wheels are cheap and relatively low tech.

so why is a 1365 x 1024 lcos cheaper then the equivelent DLP


you will probably get lcos with better CR before you see a dimple fix

 

[WanMan]

I'm hoping to predict that some other technology comes down the pipe and beats DLP and LCOS up. We all want it better, cheaper, and ...


Does it really matter what the technology is as long as it meets our needs to presenting the best dang picture one can afford without being Billy Bob Gates? Provided judder, tearing, rainbow, gray blacks, uneven phosphor wear, convergence, etc. aren't a problem and we get great definition and color saturation it can be a whopper with extra pickles inside the box and I'd be happy.


Well, until it started to smell.


But seriously, I think LCD, LCOS, and DLP will all strive to reach whatever the technology bringers think will sell the most. As the transition becomes more and more consumer (even to a stagnant business market), all technology providers will undoubtedly race one another to that same market target. Its just that their idea of a deadline isn't a day, or week, or month or season. I like to think they are looking at the 2, 5, and 10 year plans for developing and maturing technologies.


Look how long it took color television to come around, then the VCR, finally DVD. None were created, marketed and achieved market success overnight. So, go watch a movie, get a good night's sleep as the future will never be rushed. So why wait?

 

[lyndonlim]

That is why it may not be worth up-grading now for us current Piano, LT150, Sharp9000u owners because we could probably a larger performance leap for less money in 1.5 years time.


If you are a newbie, then you are very fortunate to be in the market today with the likes of HT1000 available at that sort of price. Everything new besides the HT1000 is good but not genius or brilliant like the HT1000. LONG LIVE NEC !!!!!!! THE POOR MAN"S HT SAVIOUR !!!