Based on pure speculation, I predict the following:
1) NEC will release a HD2 16:9 DLP projector sometime in the Spring or Summer 2003 at a reasonable sub-7K street price which shall become the definitive, benchmark projector in the HD2 class, representing the absolute peak of HD2 performance in terms of black level, color reproduction, and, relative to these features, brightness. Marantz, Infocus, Seleco, Runco, Toshiba, Yamaha, and Sharp will all occupy second and third tier positions to the NEC.
2) At next year's CEDIA, following the introduction of NEC's reference HD2, or - at latest - CES 2004, some of the other manufacturers will announce/display a HD3 or equivalent that will no doubt feature a resolution of 1920x1080, the logical next step, among other improved features.
3) In late 2004, we'll see another crop of HD4 type 1920x1080 panels.
4) 2005: as the price of chips drop, home theater consumer-model 3 chip DLPs will be introduced by the major manufacturers at the 10K price point.
5) Post-2005: I have no idea, but there is the possibility that the entry of Sony's GLV may threaten to displace DLP as the leading FP imaging technology, unless Sony fails to sub-license the technology to competitors. Also, on a related note, by 2006, I predict mass production of DLP RPTV's will replace the conventional RPTV entirely.
1) NEC will release a HD2 16:9 DLP projector sometime in the Spring or Summer 2003 at a reasonable sub-7K street price which shall become the definitive, benchmark projector in the HD2 class, representing the absolute peak of HD2 performance in terms of black level, color reproduction, and, relative to these features, brightness. Marantz, Infocus, Seleco, Runco, Toshiba, Yamaha, and Sharp will all occupy second and third tier positions to the NEC.
2) At next year's CEDIA, following the introduction of NEC's reference HD2, or - at latest - CES 2004, some of the other manufacturers will announce/display a HD3 or equivalent that will no doubt feature a resolution of 1920x1080, the logical next step, among other improved features.
3) In late 2004, we'll see another crop of HD4 type 1920x1080 panels.
4) 2005: as the price of chips drop, home theater consumer-model 3 chip DLPs will be introduced by the major manufacturers at the 10K price point.
5) Post-2005: I have no idea, but there is the possibility that the entry of Sony's GLV may threaten to displace DLP as the leading FP imaging technology, unless Sony fails to sub-license the technology to competitors. Also, on a related note, by 2006, I predict mass production of DLP RPTV's will replace the conventional RPTV entirely.