Unless the FCC were to change it's position on satellite must carry, they'll approve this deal because it's a win for rural consumers, despite the antitrust concerns.
I live in the 46th DMA about 45 miles away. There are four stations that are less than ideal, but the market is too far down the chain for DirecTV or Dish to consider. So to get better reception farmers in my area have no real options, other than installing a 50 foot tower antenna. With the combined capacity of both services and spot beam birds in the sky, nearly every channel in every market in the country could be carried. That doesn't mean they will, but at least the potential is there.
People talk about the antitrust concerns with Echostar, but you have a very real antitrust concern with New Corp. -- namely programming. With 10 million viewers, Fox broadcast and cable operations, 20th Century Fox, exclusive sports deals, etc., Murdock could squeeze not only cable, but film distribution and ultimately internet access by fixing the prices of his content in a way that it's favorable to his satellite services. With this much power, including his owned and operated stations, a massive percentage of America's bandwidth would be concentrated in foreign hands.
Here are two additional scenarios:
1) Echostar wins and completes the transition to a point where all set top boxes are compatible. The combined company is providing more HD than we ever dreamed of and still carrying all the local channels per must carry. Every sports event is offered in HD. News Corp. buys them and integrates the combined company into its global operations.
2) GM's board goes back to Murdock and says, "We didn't mean to run you off, we'll take the deal." Murdock assimilates DirecTV and combines it with his global operation. Echostar continues to compete, eventually becoming wildly profitable. News Corp. buys it and integrates Echostar into its global operations.
Just my nickel and a half...
Dennis
