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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Welcome to the second week of the second contest. By participating in this thread you are agreeing to the following:


1- Nielsen/VideoScan gets a statistically significant amount of sales data. It does not get all data, but the amount it gets is far more than sufficient to be useful and significant.

2- If the studios had aligned differently, things would be different. See, we all agree on that now. There is no need to discuss it ad nauseam.

3- If not for BOGOs and other sales, things would be different.

4- People Magazine should be ashamed for continually leaving Winn off the list of the Sexiest Men Alive.

5- Studios have made decisions based on factors confessed to and not confessed to. What those factors are is irrelevant to any possible on topic discussion in this thread.

6- People make predictions based on a wide variety of assumptions and for different reasons. Do not make fun of the person make the pick.

7- Saying the real contest is now Blu-ray vs. DVD and then posting the ratio for that is not witty or clever. Oh, it might have been when it was done the first time. That is in the past. All it does now is make the poster look petty.

8- We don't need format war posts in here. However, saying things like "This was a good week for Blu." or "I think this may be a trend where HD DVD gains back some market share." is not a format war post if you back it up and are using it as a basis for your prediction. Saying "HD-DUD is so dead!" or "Poo-ray is teh suxxor!" is a format war post, and, quite frankly, is very unimaginative.

9- This list is likely to get longer as time goes by.


If you are unable to follow these rules, you will get a warning. If you break them again, I will put you on ignore. Actually, you will likely be asked by the mods to not post in the thread again.


With that out of the way, on to the fun stuff.


January is famed for the number of new releases. Specifically, the lack of them. Once again, we face a small lineup, though both sides are represented with two exclusives this week with no neutrals in sight.


On Blu-ray, Lionsgate hopes to continue their sales momentum with the release of Saw IV. They will face stiff competition with Disney's release of Dwayne "Don't Call Me The Rock" Johnson's The Game Plan.


HD DVD is back this week with a Method Man concert and Channels, an independent film released direct to HD DVD.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.


The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on February 1st will cover sales from January 21st-January 27th, inclusive.


(I decided to push the ending time back 1 hour.)


Again, nothing but predictions and the odd, friendly comment on other people's predictions.


Nielsen contest entries for 02/01/2008

Code:
Code:
[B]NAME                BD:HD[/B]
toon12              92:8
Robert SawyerIII    91:9
eskimo2176          91:9
thebland            90:10
badboi              89:11
shamus              89:11
dobyblue            89:11
bryansj             89:11
torse_jack          88:12
desmond212          88:12
lvbeethoven         88:12
Earz                88:12
theforce8686        88:12
splinters           88:12
ehomer              88:12
kampsy              88:12
fitprod             87:13
manikin             87:13
Icemage             87:13
nick_weasel         87:13
Aresca              87:13
GP_23               87:13
JamesDFarrow        87:13
Newbie              87:13
chirpie             87:13
TheSimplePanda      87:13
whoelse             87:13
spacejamz           87:13
klac                86:14
nickoakdl           86:14
swedcrip            86:14
DarkAdept           86:14
MASrules            86:14
Will d s            86:14
user friendly       86:14
MrPorterhouse       86:14
jkcheng122          86:14
Joon TV             86:14
trondmm             86:14
ifmracin            85:15
frizshizzle         85:15
darinp2             85:15
Jblacklow           85:15
TPigeon2006         85:15
Assayer             85:15
lomax               85:15
patrick99           85:15
Random Digital      85:15
Kemet               85:15
Lbarber             85:15
jkwest              85:15
Jiffylush           85:15
Monty22001          85:15
soremekun           84:16
dstewart            84:16
Richard Paul        84:16
Steve Schauer       84:16
Greg Kettell        84:16
Woodshed            84:16
UxiSXRD             84:16
carljanderson       84:16
ottscay             84:16
Jackietreehorn      84:16
John Ryder          84:16
brianmonkey         83:17
merv43              83:17
dc_pilgrim          83:17
JAC6                83:17
phansson            83:17
p0tempkin           82:18
donricouga          82:18
RDarrylR            82:18
basano              82:18
eightninesuited     82:18
iamitman            82:18
merlintl            81:19
bolaar              81:19
William             81:19
fredwi              80:20
ADGrant             80:20
bato                80:20
theflux             80:20
Loc13               80:20
bigdaveman          79:21
caesartheboxer      79:21
ICBM99              79:21
allargon            79:21
diatom              78:22
Leviathan25         78:22
datobin1            78:22
bplewis             78:22
anttimonty          77:23
aaronwt             75:25
online              75:25
ts.enigma           75:25
edgebsl             74:26
Jallopy             72:28
Shmack              70:30
norliss             70:30
HD DVD

Channels (Vanguard Cinema)

Method Man: Live from the Sunset Strip (Music Distribution)

Blu-ray

The Game Plan (Disney)

Saw IV (Lionsgate)
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Nielsen contest results for 01/25/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 83:17

Code:
Code:
NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
anttimonty          83:17          1         0.00
Myxamatosis         83:17          1         0.00
ottscay             83:17          1         0.00
spacejamz           83:17          1         0.00
torsteinvh          83:17          1         0.00
tsp533              83:17          1         0.00
cakefoo             82:18          1         1.00
Calmus              82:18          1         1.00
carljanderson       82:18          1         1.00
dobyblue            82:18          1         1.00
ehomer              82:18          1         1.00
galperi1            84:16          1         1.00
gand41f             82:18          1         1.00
h0mi                82:18          1         1.00
iamitman            84:16          1         1.00
Jiffylush           82:18          1         1.00
jkwest              84:16          1         1.00
jmcq                82:18          1         1.00
LonePirate          82:18          1         1.00
MrPorterhouse       84:16          1         1.00
nyg                 84:16          1         1.00
rlsmith             82:18          1         1.00
SGRSBSKIER          82:18          1         1.00
Sketcha             82:18          1         1.00
Slirp               84:16          1         1.00
UxiSXRD             84:16          1         1.00
William             82:18          1         1.00
Winn                82:18          1         1.00
Baccusboy           81:19          1         2.00
bigcheda            81:19          1         2.00
Fran O'Hern         81:19          1         2.00
Kemet               81:19          1         2.00
Lbarber             81:19          1         2.00
nelkirn             81:19          1         2.00
phansson            81:19          1         2.00
Random Digital      85:15          1         2.00
Rob Tomlin          81:19          1         2.00
shamus              81:19          1         2.00
splinters           85:15          1         2.00
Staying Salty       81:19          1         2.00
user friendly       81:19          1         2.00
whiskersland        81:19          1         2.00
Woodshed            81:19          1         2.00
Assayer             80:20          1         3.00
dpags               80:20          1         3.00
Earz                86:14          1         3.00
eightninesuited     86:14          1         3.00
extra_hc            80:20          1         3.00
Greg Kettell        80:20          1         3.00
Jagt Mirage         80:20          1         3.00
kcgr                80:20          1         3.00
lomax               80:20          1         3.00
Mel2                86:14          1         3.00
Neo1965             80:20          1         3.00
patrick99           80:20          1         3.00
theflux             80:20          1         3.00
theforce8686        80:20          1         3.00
TheSimplePanda      80:20          1         3.00
whoelse             80:20          1         3.00
Will d s            86:14          1         3.00
allargon            79:21          1         4.00
andyparhelia        79:21          1         4.00
Aresca              87:13          1         4.00
bato                79:21          1         4.00
Bill0711            79:21          1         4.00
bolaar              79:21          1         4.00
Carbon_Le           87:13          1         4.00
chirpie             79:21          1         4.00
conquerermtm        87:13          1         4.00
DarkAdept           79:21          1         4.00
dumbswede           87:13          1         4.00
GP_23               87:13          1         4.00
HuntzHD             79:21          1         4.00
JAC6                87:13          1         4.00
JamesDFarrow        87:13          1         4.00
Jocky Wilson        87:13          1         4.00
MarekM              87:13          1         4.00
MASrules            79:21          1         4.00
Newbie              87:13          1         4.00
rcase13             79:21          1         4.00
rcutlass70          87:13          1         4.00
Seth Gecko          79:21          1         4.00
TheTwelve           87:13          1         4.00
TPigeon2006         79:21          1         4.00
Vyrance             79:21          1         4.00
badboi              88:12          1         5.00
basano              78:22          1         5.00
bluescreen          78:22          1         5.00
Bob Meridian        78:22          1         5.00
ChristopherB        88:12          1         5.00
darinp2             78:22          1         5.00
desmond212          88:12          1         5.00
dmcfan              78:22          1         5.00
frizshizzle         88:12          1         5.00
Icemage             78:22          1         5.00
Jblacklow           78:22          1         5.00
jling84             78:22          1         5.00
Ktak                88:12          1         5.00
lvbeethoven         88:12          1         5.00
manikin             88:12          1         5.00
merlintl            78:22          1         5.00
nick_weasel         78:22          1         5.00
nickoakdl           78:22          1         5.00
olarmy96            78:22          1         5.00
PaulGo              88:12          1         5.00
Richard Paul        78:22          1         5.00
Steve Schauer       78:22          1         5.00
swedcrip            78:22          1         5.00
tiger roach         78:22          1         5.00
tomsteeper          78:22          1         5.00
willyd              78:22          1         5.00
wisedesi            88:12          1         5.00
Brian Hampton       89:11          1         6.00
dc_pilgrim          77:23          1         6.00
dstewart            77:23          1         6.00
elikhom             77:23          1         6.00
Gordon Shumway      89:11          1         6.00
habscolts           77:23          1         6.00
klac                89:11          1         6.00
merv43              89:11          1         6.00
Rich Peterson       77:23          1         6.00
TheDaddyJDS         89:11          1         6.00
yampan              77:23          1         6.00
ADGrant             90:10          1         7.00
AndyHDTV            90:10          1         7.00
bplewis             76:24          1         7.00
donricouga          76:24          1         7.00
edgebsl             90:10          1         7.00
eskimo2176          76:24          1         7.00
RDarrylR            76:24          1         7.00
soremekun           76:24          1         7.00
thebland            90:10          1         7.00
thomopolis          90:10          1         7.00
30XS955 User        75:25          1         8.00
brianmonkey         75:25          1         8.00
caesartheboxer      75:25          1         8.00
fitprod             75:25          1         8.00
ICBM99              75:25          1         8.00
online              75:25          1         8.00
p0tempkin           91:9           1         8.00
Robert SawyerIII    91:9           1         8.00
torse_jack          91:9           1         8.00
ts.enigma           75:25          1         8.00
Dreessen            74:26          1         9.00
ifmracin            74:26          1         9.00
Merrick97           74:26          1         9.00
ssjLancer           74:26          1         9.00
bigdaveman          73:27          1        10.00
datobin1            73:27          1        10.00
Entertainment       72:28          1        11.00
Leviathan25         72:28          1        11.00
RROSEN              72:28          1        11.00
BritInVA            71:29          1        12.00
aaronwt             70:30          1        13.00
fredwi              70:30          1        13.00
MRMOTA              70:30          1        13.00
diatom              69:31          1        14.00
GmanAVS             69:31          1        14.00
Jallopy             68:32          1        15.00
Mr. Good Cat        100:0          1        17.00
Hockeytown Fan      60:40          1        23.00
laric               60:40          1        23.00
Shmack              60:40          1        23.00
Super XP            60:40          1        23.00
Perfect Picks


Final week

anttimonty

Myxamatosis

ottscay

spacejamz

torsteinvh

tsp533


--------------


Overall perfect picks


anttimonty [ 1 ] (01/25/08)

Myxamatosis [ 1 ] (01/25/08)

ottscay [ 1 ] (01/25/08)

spacejamz [ 1 ] (01/25/08)

torsteinvh [ 1 ] (01/25/08)

tsp533 [ 1 ] (01/25/08)


Weekly Stats
Code:
Code:
Week    Picks   Perfect High            Actual  Low             Mean    Median  Mode
1       164     6       91* (8) [48]    83      60 (23) [110]   80.55   80.5    78

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.


Once again I am putting up a $10 gift certificate. Someone jokingly suggested donating a player as a prize and I am going to run with that idea. I will be accepting prize donations. If anyone has two copies of a movie and want to donate one or got a movie in a giveaway they just do not want, here is a way to get rid of them instead of trying to get a buck for them on eBay.
 

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85:15


These kids today and their torture porn...



Not sure if it matters, but according to Rottentomatoes:


The Game Plan is 27% and did 90 million in the box office.


Saw IV is 20% and did 63 million in the box office.
 

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85:15


--Darin
 

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85:15
 

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Semi-solid day and dates for Blu-ray. Much less rebound last week than I expected. First reports of retailers shifting shelf space in the period covered this week.

87 : 13
 
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