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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Has anyone seen a reliable estimate of the number of RePlayTV 4000/4500 series boxes sold? TiVo publishes its subscriber figures (not the same as its sales figures as some subscribers have multiple boxes and Arjay has a box with no subscription), and both analysts and DirecTv people have provided pretty accurate numbers for UltimateTV receivers.


I have seen some estimates as low as 1,000 units a month which would mean about 6,000 or so to date. I would like to know if anyone has seen any better numbers.


Thanks in advance.


/carmi
 

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lol... I'm convinced you're a Tivo Troll after your barrage of negative posts lately.


Anyway, how do you know that Tivo gives out actual numbers? How do you know that numbers posted by "both analystss and DirecTv people" have been "pretty accurate numbers for UltimateTV" ?


Finally, if ReplayTV hasn't published numbers, how can any estimate you come up with be reliable?
 

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Troll is in the eye of the beholder but majortom is a strong TiVo supporter.


However TiVo has announced sub. numbers for its service; now somewhat over 400,000. That's been easy for TiVo to do since it required subbing to use its service.


What has not been announced is the number of TiVo boxes sold. That's understandable as there have been several manufacturers involved. The other unknown with regard to TiVo is the number of Series 1 SA TiVo's used without TiVo service.


Up to now ReplayTV was sold with service. ReplayTV and Panasonic have not announced numbers of boxes sold. Now that ReplayTV has a break out service fee I'd expect quarterly numbers of subs. for the new ReplayTV service to be announced.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by majortom
(....Arjay has a box with no subscription)
arjay has two boxes without subscription; one of which is not being used now as is also true of two ReplayTV boxes.


A big question regarding sales is how many actually are in use.


And it'd really be interesting to know the number of TiVo's being used unsubbed!
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Quote:
Originally posted by RandyL712
Anyway, how do you know that Tivo gives out actual numbers?
TiVo, Inc. publishes the number of subscribers to the TiVo service as part or their quarterly report. I do not know that they do not lie in their quarterly reports, but I would bet against that.


How do you know that numbers posted by "both analysts and DirecTv people" have been "pretty accurate numbers for UltimateTV" ?


Well, I personally know the DirecTv people (and have for many years), and know them to be honest. Secondly, all the numbers seem to be in the same range and agree with the numbers that I have heard from friends at Microsoft.

Quote:
Finally, if ReplayTV hasn't published numbers, how can any estimate you come up with be reliable?
Without real numbers from Sonic Blue, estimates from analysts are just that, estimates. My experience is that these estimates are usually fairly close (or at least within an order of magnitude) and well with in the range of what I am interested in knowing.


/carmi
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by majortom
My experience is that these estimates are usually fairly close (or at least within an order of magnitude) /carmi
An order of magnitude is fairly close? Now I know that you're a TivoTroll :D :D :D
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Quote:
Originally posted by BaysideBas
An order of magnitude is fairly close? Now I know that you're a TivoTroll :D :D :D


My experiance is that analyst's estimates are usually within 10-15% of the numbers that companies actually report. My point was that there is a big difference between

/carmi
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by majortom




My experiance is that analyst's estimates are usually within 10-15% of the numbers that companies actually report. My point was that there is a big difference between

/carmi
Better take that remedial course in basic math guy.

The difference between 10,000 and 100,000 is, in fact, an order of magnitude. A 10 to 15% difference is far smaller than that.


Maybe you just mis-spoke.:D :D :D
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Quote:
Originally posted by BaysideBas
Better take that remedial course in basic math guy.

The difference between 10,000 and 100,000 is, in fact, an order of magnitude. A 10 to 15% difference is far smaller than that.


Maybe you just mis-spoke.:D :D :D
Any number under 10,000 and any number over 100,000 differ by two orders of magnitude.


However, in my original post, I was not being rigorous but instead meant "order of magnitude" in the colloquial sense of "rough estimate".


I apologize for any confusion I have caused you.


/carmi
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by majortom
Just to keep things in perspective, more PVR's have been sold (both in absolute terms and as a percentage of possible customers) at this point in the product category's life than were DVD players, VCRs, or TVs. Not a bad start.
Quote:
Originally posted by BaysideBas
An order of magnitude is fairly close?
Quote:
Originally posted by BaysideBas
...Maybe you just mis-spoke.:D :D :D
Oh I know it's always incredulous some of the claims. You have to wonder what planet it is where that type of spin (defying all common sense) (and pigs) will fly? Where "orders of magnitude" are irrelevant as long as it might somehow promote TiVo? (BTW that was only a little over a month ago, evidently the mystery Replay numbers were "orders of magnitude" larger than TiVo's and UTV's to come up with that one?)


An interesting perspective for sure... almost that very same day there was some link to an article in the LA Times (I think) that went into (something to the effect of) how dismal the adoption rate for all PVR's was today despite all the money TiVo had spent on conventional marketing.


I guess we can just look @ it has "rose colored glasses"? And not deliberate TroLLo malfeasance?


(I don't know if it smells like a duck and "quacks"?) http://www.plauder-smilies.de/rotwerd.gif http://www.plauder-smilies.de/rotwerd.gif
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Quote:
Originally posted by KenL
Oh I know it's always incredulous some of the claims. You have to wonder what planet it is where that type of spin (defying all common sense) (and pigs) will fly? Where "orders of magnitude" are irrelevant as long as it might somehow promote TiVo? (BTW that was only a little over a month ago, evidently the mystery Replay numbers were "orders of magnitude" larger than TiVo's and UTV's to come up with that one?)
I have no idea what most of this means, but, the point I was making in that thread is simply that based on current sales numbers for all PVR products (all forms of UltimateTV, TiVo, RePlayTV, and DishPVR 501s), more have been sold (both in terms of absolute numbers and as a percentage of possible customers) than DVD players, VCRs, or TVs were at this point in the product lifecycle.


This does not promote TiVo, Inc. or any other PVR maker, just comments on the uptake rate.


Where did anyone say that orders of magnitude were not important? You are the only person that I have seen arguing that it does not matter how many units RePlayTV sells, they will be successful using some new strategy.


/carmi
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by majortom


....the point I was making in that thread is simply that based on current sales numbers for all PVR products (all forms of UltimateTV, TiVo, RePlayTV, and DishPVR 501s), more have been sold (both in terms of absolute numbers and as a percentage of possible customers) than DVD players, VCRs, or TVs were at this point in the product lifecycle.
But honestly isn't TiVo your sweetie! (Asked just for trollification purposes. Enjoy the ReplayTV ambience and the other DVR's at AVS as well.)


You left out Dishplayer in your listing of "all PVR products".


One of the recent squabbles at the Coffee House (don't ask me for the link; I might actually find it) was about TiVo being the number two DVR maker behind Echostar. The point being advocated was that Echostar stuff was crap, was largely given away, and was no longer being used but had been sold off and that TiVo was really number one in the number of DVR's in service.


I don't know the answer but I won't sell Echostar short. DirecTV DVR's have been "given away" by subsidies and every Dishplayer sold had a buyer. Total DVR's in service have been estimated at somewhat over a million. ReplayTV at this point is probably not a major player.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Arjay -

You are right, I should have said Echostar PVR instead of DishPVR 501. I meant to include both. Given that TiVo has 422,000 subscribers (DirecTiVo households that have two or more units qualify as one subscriber) they probably have sold over 500,000 units (maybe as many as 600,000). Add 50,000 UltimateTV boxes, and some number of Echostar products, and you can easily hit 1,000,000. That's not a bad number. The faster that goes up, the better off we all are.


/carmi
 

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So I may have missed somthing but....



...why is this important? Who cares how many have sold?


If you have one and you like it great! If you don't have one, get one you'll love it. If you are waiting until 100,000 units sell before getting one, get a life.
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by majortom
I should have said Echostar PVR instead of DishPVR 501. I meant to include both. Given that TiVo has 422,000 subscribers (DirecTiVo households that have two or more units qualify as one subscriber) they probably have sold over 500,000 units (maybe as many as 600,000). Add 50,000 UltimateTV boxes, and some number of Echostar products, and you can easily hit 1,000,000. That's not a bad number.
OK, but don't mix guestimates with hard numbers. Your figures above are of both kinds and everything in between as well.


Add "some number" and the DVR number might be 1.2M or more. E*star has a lot of DVR's out there. (Several orders of magnitude more than I can count on my fingers.) :cool:


You have a propensity to use numbers to TiVo's advantage (such as when talking about "list" prices vs. "available" prices. IMHO, doing so doesn't strengthen your case; it just brings out my compulsive tendency to nitpick details which I perceive to be biased. Which is a drag!
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Quote:
Originally posted by Craig Colvin
So I may have missed somthing but....



...why is this important? Who cares how many have sold?


If you have one and you like it great! If you don't have one, get one you'll love it. If you are waiting until 100,000 units sell before getting one, get a life.
Lots of reasons to care, among them an estimated longevity of the product and service. Microsoft's UltimateTV partners have sold under 50,000 units and so Microsoft left the market. If it were not for the $10 monthly fee, they would have turned off the service a long time ago. Since both TiVo and Sonic Blue offer lifetime service, it is useful to understand the chances that they can offer the service profitably based on their customer base. Finally and perhaps most importantly, simple curiosity. If none of those appeal to you, do not bother to read the threads and certainly do not bother to reply. :)


/carmi
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Quote:
Originally posted by sparrent
Is this the ReplayTV forum or the Tivo forum?
The topic of the thread is "Number of RePlayTV 4000/4500 series boxes sold." Seems like the RePlayTV forum would be the right place to ask the question.


/carmi
 

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Well as for me, I have had Replay TV in my house for about 2 1/2 years. I really have no doubt that the service will be around for some time.


I don't care what amount of the market Replay has. I have Macs, so obviously I have no use for market share data, I just buy what I like, not what everyone else has.


Now if I was going to buy stock in any of the DVR companies I might want to know these numbers, but as an end user I really could not care less.


Thanks
 
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