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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood 

I know I've asked this a million times but I never have got an answer to it--Why can audio equipment be produced and sold at astronomical prices--the companies that do so continue to make money and continue to produce such equipment but it is 100% against SALES FORCE law here at AVS forum to conceive of ANY company being able to do the same when it comes to TVs...


Why is that?!

http://izismile.com/2010/06/08/the_most_expensive_and_the_coolest_home_theatre_in_the_world_22_pics.html
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760#post_24484039


Good(ish) news: The latest IHS forecast for OLED is 8.1 million units in 2018. That's (in my mind) a really big number given that even 2015 will have a tough time reaching 1 million... It's almost certainly also something resembling 100% of the high-end TV market.

Thanks for the info Rogo - is the IHS report/forecast publicly available? Is there a link?


I believe you are correct is assuming that this forecast represents something close to 100% of the high-end TV market by 2018, and in my view this is a pretty optimistic forecast. Here's a quick list of some risk factors I see that could cause the OLED penetration of the high-end TV market to be significantly less than 100% by 2018:


1/ technical challenges associated with low-cost manufacturing of large panels take longer to resolve than expected - for UHD panels 65" and above, LED/LCD remains substantially less expensive than OLED, even by 2018.


2/ the speed of industrialization and mass-manufacturing of OLED is slower than assumed by this forecast - I believe this forecast must be basically assuming that investments in mass-market manufacturing facilities is starting this year and I am not yet sure that is the case. If LG decides to be more cautious and invest in new manufacturing capacity only when they are confident that they have a market to absorb the volume of resulting products, the entire ramp to the volumes needed to supply 100% of the high-end TV market by 2018 could take longer than they are assuming...


3/ OLED for consumer TVs remains a far less mature technology than LED/LCD and a technical issue could still emerge that slows it adoption. Between aging of blue phosphors, burn-in/IR, or some other lifetime / reliability issue, until OLED has a much longer history of high-volume / low-cost products in the hands of millions of consumer for a period of several years, there remains the possibility that a technical problem could emerge that slows its progress.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760#post_24484039


Bad news: The global TV market is absolutely coming apart at the seams. It's starting to look like PCs where every forecast gets revised downward (because the previous one was too optimistic. The numbers came in from IHS at 225 million (vs. a forecast of 227 million as of November). That doesn't seem like a lot, but it was down almost 6% overall -- and a whopping 10% among HD sets!


Every region saw declines, with North America down 9%, Asia down 7% and both sides of Europe suffering.


This is generally awful for new technology. It's trying to grow into a shrinking pool.


IHS thinks this is all going to turn out OK, specifically because of China and emerging-market demand. It does not see things turning in the developed world. That's good for people buying cheap LCDs, but honestly it has no impact on the high end of the market which it tacitly has begun to agree with me about -- that segment is at best flat from here, and quite possibly shrinking further as replacement cycles get even longer.


In short,
  • My belief the Japanese TV makers are all dead is stronger than ever. None has any means of withstanding even flat markets in the developed world and none are strong in China. Even if they were there are no margins to be had in China.
  • The U.S. and China are probably getting close to even on "revenue share" in the TV market at this point. The collapse of the U.S. market is especially bad news for brands focused here and premium products.
  • I suspect that IHS is wrong about the market size and that it will continue to shrink -- even with growth of demand in China. It would not surprise me even slightly to see global TV demand fall to 200 million by the end of the decade. Shipments were regularly below this figure through 2007. Everyone in the developed world has bought into the flat-panel / digital era by now -- even for most secondary rooms. There are simply no catalysts to maintain an accelerated rate of purchases.
  • Tablets are taking a huge portion of TV-type viewing, further depressing demand. This is a developed and developing-world phenomenon.
  • Every forecaster is calling for OLED to basically completely dominate the high end of the flat-panel world within 5 years. They are presuming that high-end LCD will simply not be able to compete with OLED.

I had posted this link in another thread, but it seems appropriate to complement your post by repeating it here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-vizio-control-u-smart-182100660.html


This report is focused on the US market and shows Q4'13 market share data in the US as follows:


Top 5 United States Smart TV Vendors



United States Smart TV Vendor Market Share (%) __________ Q4 '12 __________ Q4 '13 __________ Change Y/Y
  • 1. Samsung _________________________________________ 29.5% __________ 29.6% ___________ 0.2%
  • 2. Vizio ____________________________________________ 22.8% __________ 24.4% ____________ 1.7%
  • 3. Sony ____________________________________________ 20.9% _________ 17.6% ____________ -3.3%
  • 4. LG _______________________________________________ 7.9% _________ 13.0% ____________ 5.1%
  • 5. Panasonic _________________________________________7.9% __________ 6.9% _____________-1.0%
  • __ Others __________________________________________ 11.1% ___________ 8.5% ____________ -2.6%


Source: Strategy Analytics, Connected Home Devices Service


So based on this data, at least for the US market if there is any Japanese brand able to hang on for another year or two, it would appear to be Sony. On the other hand, Sony lost more market share Q4'12-Q4'13 than any other brand and it looks like a done deal that LG will pass Sony to become #3 in US Smart TV share by Q1'15. And the fact that neither Sharp nor Toshiba even made the top 5, as well as the fact that Panasonic had less than 7% share before the ended sales of their plasma TVs, would make me very hesitant to consider buying a new TV from any Japanese brand other than possibly Sony (if I was concerned about long-term technical support and continued presence in the US market).

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760#post_24484039
  • Every forecaster is calling for OLED to basically completely dominate the high end of the flat-panel world within 5 years. They are presuming that high-end LCD will simply not be able to compete with OLED.

If OLED is fundamentally (and significantly on a % basis) less expensive to manufacture than high-quality LED/LCD, this is eventually going to happen, no question. I believe that the time required for OLED manufacturing to deliver products based on that fundamental manufacturing cost advantage is a risk factor, as I stated in the beginning of this post, so 'within 5 years' is probably a best-case estimate and it could take longer.


In the scenario that OLED does not have a fundamental manufacturing cost advantage versus high-quality LED/LCD, the entire equation becomes a great deal more complicated and who knows where we will be in 2018...
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760#post_24486501



2/ the speed of industrialization and mass-manufacturing of OLED is slower than assumed by this forecast - I believe this forecast must be basically assuming that investments in mass-market manufacturing facilities is starting this year and I am not yet sure that is the case. If LG decides to be more cautious and invest in new manufacturing capacity only when they are confident that they have a market to absorb the volume of resulting products, the entire ramp to the volumes needed to supply 100% of the high-end TV market by 2018 could take longer than they are assuming...

LG is absolutely building a mass market fab. Their Gen 8 fab with capacity for ~1.85 million 55" televisions a year is supposed to ramp in the 2nd half of this year.


Assuming that the initial fab hits their yield/sales goals, I would expect that they would start another fab conversion sometime late in 2015 with a goal for commercial production in late 2016 or early 2017. The size of the 2nd fab will be determined by just how low LG Display believes they can get their costs using vapor deposition combined with IGZO/WRGB. I think that the approach can dominate the high-end of the television market, but can it produce a sub-$1500 television? No idea, but ultimately, that is where the really big volumes lie.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760_60#post_24486501


...


1/ technical challenges associated with low-cost manufacturing of large panels take longer to resolve than expected ...


2/ the speed of industrialization and mass-manufacturing of OLED is slower than assumed ...


3/ ... a technical issue could still emerge that slows it adoption. ...

4/ LED-LCD improves faster than envisioned.


(I'm thinking more brightness, Dolby Vision, Vizio.)
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760#post_24486622

Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760#post_24486501



2/ the speed of industrialization and mass-manufacturing of OLED is slower than assumed by this forecast - I believe this forecast must be basically assuming that investments in mass-market manufacturing facilities is starting this year and I am not yet sure that is the case. If LG decides to be more cautious and invest in new manufacturing capacity only when they are confident that they have a market to absorb the volume of resulting products, the entire ramp to the volumes needed to supply 100% of the high-end TV market by 2018 could take longer than they are assuming...

LG is absolutely building a mass market fab. Their Gen 8 fab with capacity for ~1.85 million 55" televisions a year is supposed to ramp in the 2nd half of this year.


Assuming that the initial fab hits their yield/sales goals, I would expect that they would start another fab conversion sometime late in 2015 with a goal for commercial production in late 2016 or early 2017. The size of the 2nd fab will be determined by just how low LG Display believes they can get their costs using vapor deposition combined with IGZO/WRGB. I think that the approach can dominate the high-end of the television market, but can it produce a sub-$1500 television? No idea, but ultimately, that is where the really big volumes lie.

This is helpful detail, slacker711. And I think it helps make my point more concrete.


This definitely an investment in a mass-market manufacturing facility, but is it only one such investment.


If your numbers are correct, this plant has sufficient capacity to pump out 1.85 million 55" TVs. Perhaps the market late this year will surprise us and LG will sell a high number of 55" OLED TVs, but there is a high probability that at the price points they have indicated, the market interest for the 55" will be less than the market interest for the 77". I, for one, would not be interested to invest $5000+ in a 55" OLED this year because I know that my real goal is a panel 65" or larger, so I would likely be following that first 55" OLED purchase with another one as soon as the 65"+ OLED become affordable and mainstream (and perhaps 4K as well...). If I am likely gong to have to sell a new TV at a loss within the next 2-3 years, I'd much rather sell a used 65" LED/LCD that cost me less than half the price of a 55" OLED than trying to sell that 55" OLED used...


1.85M 55" OLEDs equals about 1.3M 65" OLEDs or about 1.0M 75" OLEDs (assuming identical yields, which is an unrealistically optimistic assumption).


So in the scenario that the 2015 'High-end' TV market is for panels 75" or more, LGs new plant will give them the capacity to a demand of up to 1M 75" OLEDs, aligned with the forecast of 1M OLED TVs sold in 2015.


If that first plant is maxed out, selling everything it can produce, and the market is growing as LG hopes, your expectation that LG would invest in another even higher-volume manufacturing facility, likely linked to an even lower-cost manufacturing process such as the vapor deposition + IGZO/WRGB al sounds very realistic and likely. So the virtuous cycle of increased investment in manufacturing capacity resulting in increased volume of sales and business and profit would be established on a timeframe consistent with OLED dominating the high-end TV market by 2018 as forecast by IHS.


But that is a lot of 'ifs' and that was my point. It is possible, even realistic, but I am not sure that scenario can be called likely.


Another forecast is that LG is that is unable to produce OLED panels inexpensively enough by 2015 to sell them at a price point competitive against high-end LED/LCD to sell anywhere close to even 50% of this first plants manufacturing capacity. n that scenario, they are unlikely to feel the business confidence to invest in another manufacturing until later than you have forecast. This first manufacturing plant might be sufficient for the OLED TV business they are serving through 2015 and 2016 and perhaps into 2017 before they are running out of OLED TV manufacturing capacity.


Today we know that LG can sell a 55" OLED for ~$4500 which hopefully represents a break-even price, at least. That is very expensive for 1 55" 1080p TV in todays market. The 55" Vizio M Series FALD TV will not have the same picture quality, but it will cost $900 - 20% of the price. And for those who want the best PQ and are ready to pay for it, I don't believe 55" is the target size they will be interested in.


So on to larger panels. LG will be offering a 77" OLED this year, but we don't what it will cost yet. The 70" Vizio P Series 4K FALD will be available for $2600 this year. By next year, the P Series will cost less and will probably be offering many more of the PQ enhancements introduced (we hope :) by the R Series this year. So for the sake of argument, let's assume that Vizio has a 70" R Series for $2600 or less available on the market next year and it offers Sony X950B / Sharp Elite class PQ with 4K, HDR, WCG, etc...


In the case that a competing 70" 4K OLED costs $10K or more in 2015 (which is already a pretty aggressive assumption), I'm not sure LG sells 1M of those OLEDs...


Having to scratch market share away from an established and pretty low-cost technology like LED/LCD, even if PQ is not as good, makes a very big challenge for LG.


So the ramp-up of OLED could happen as quickly as you have outlined, or it could happen more slowly than that - that was my point. And my secondary point was that, I see the IHS forecast (supported by your forecast) as relatively optimistic and believe there at least an equal chance of the ramp-up of OLED going more slowly...
 

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FALD LCD is **** compared to OLED. OLED will be the only high end display now. Wait for the Value electronics shootout this year and it will be proven.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8700_100#post_24484039


...depressing...
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8700_100#post_24486210


I know I've asked this a million times but I never have got an answer to it--Why can audio equipment be produced and sold at astronomical prices--the companies that do so continue to make money and continue to produce such equipment but it is 100% against SALES FORCE law here at AVS forum to conceive of ANY company being able to do the same when it comes to TVs... Why is that?!
I'm not sure that's true. The audiophile market is basically dead and they haven't even realized it yet. Their only market is getting older and upgrading to more expensive equipment with huge margins, which is keeping the money coming in for now, but there are very few new customers entering the market at any point (low-end, mid-range etc.) to work their way up the ladder as it were.


The new generation of potential customers just aren't interested in it, with their headphones and lossy downloads which sound bad on a high-end system, and the focus on convenience with sound bars and portable bluetooth speakers.

The new generation simply can't afford high-end audio either, even if they did see the value in it. But music is just background noise to that generation rather than being something they will sit down and focus their attention on. Just try and get anyone under 30 to sit down and listen to an album start to finish without them pulling out their phones and focusing their attention somewhere else.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronoptimist  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760#post_24487337


.

I'm not sure that's true. The audiophile market is basically dead and they haven't even realized it yet. Their only market is getting older and upgrading to more expensive equipment with huge margins, which is keeping the money coming in for now, but there are very few new customers entering the market at any point (low-end, mid-range etc.) to work their way up the ladder as it were.


The new generation of potential customers just aren't interested in it, with their headphones and lossy downloads which sound bad on a high-end system, and the focus on convenience with sound bars and portable bluetooth speakers.

The new generation simply can't afford high-end audio either, even if they did see the value in it. But music is just background noise to that generation rather than being something they will sit down and focus their attention on. Just try and get anyone under 30 to sit down and listen to an album start to finish without them pulling out their phones and focusing their attention somewhere else.

I have a more positive spin on the DAC/Headphone market. Many DACs are also preamps that can be connected to powered speakers or directly to an amp and speakers.

Eventually, they will get good jobs, leave their cramped dwellings, buy a house, and want to walk around and listen to music without gear on their heads.

In the meantime, they are developing a taste for fidelity. Excellent!



- Rich
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8760#post_24486751



Another forecast is that LG is that is unable to produce OLED panels inexpensively enough by 2015 to sell them at a price point competitive against high-end LED/LCD to sell anywhere close to even 50% of this first plants manufacturing capacity. n that scenario, they are unlikely to feel the business confidence to invest in another manufacturing until later than you have forecast. This first manufacturing plant might be sufficient for the OLED TV business they are serving through 2015 and 2016 and perhaps into 2017 before they are running out of OLED TV manufacturing capacity.

Fundamentally, we will have no certainty until any of this happens. This will be the first commercial OLED fab and projecting anything about it is naturally going to be more uncertain than projecting the 100th LCD fab. However, your comment about "business confidence" is precisely why I do have some confidence in the ramp of OLED shipments over the next two years. LG Display has a fairly good idea about the price targets they will need to hit to sell the Gen 8 fab capacity and yet they spent the $700 million or so required to convert the a-si LCD capacity to IGZO OLED. The losses that they are going to take this year are large enough to lead them to cancel their dividend. While this isnt a bet the company event, it isnt a side project either.


They must have some business confidence in their roadmap to hit the yields and price points necessary to make this investment viable. It doesnt guarantee anything, but neither is it a shot in the dark.


As for screen size/cost, somewhere up thread is a breakdown of television sales by size. My cursory search didnt find it, but I am pretty sure that sales of >70" screens is absolutely tiny. There is going to be quite a bit of premium for OLED's of that size but my guess is that is precisely the market that is going to be willing to pay extra for the absolute top of the line picture quality. The real test for LG will be whether they can bring down the price of the 55" version far enough to appeal to non-AV enthusiasts who were previously buying Sony based on their reputation for quality. That market is going to be necessary to justify a 2nd fab.
 

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Doesn't the potential customer pool for 55" panels expand when you factor in the void created by Panasonic's disappearance (in the case of the VT60)? Now you did state non-AV enthusiasts, but I rather doubt Sony's LCDs are/were a greater bargain than said Panasonic's (haven't done the actual pricing research).
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24487977


They must have some business confidence in their roadmap to hit the yields and price points necessary to make this investment viable. It doesnt guarantee anything, but neither is it a shot in the dark.

Absolutely agree - it is not a shot in the dark and they have some business confidence in roadmap and yield to hit defined pricepoint objectives.


On the other hand, decision are being made in the context of a moving target, so accuracy of market forecast is a major risk factor. Kind of like skiing down an avalanche. When decision were made to invest in this first plant and what objectives were in terms of yields, costs, etc, that was likely last year before anyone could have forecasted what has happened to pricing in 2014.


If LG had forecasted 55" 4K FALD LED/LCD being available in 2014 for $1400, they knew what they were getting into and should come out fine (assuming yields and costs hit the targets they believed would be achievable).


On the other hand, if LG made those investment decisions in the context of an assumption that prices in 2014 and 2015 for 55" 4K FALD LED/LCD would be in the $4-5 range, that wlll mean that they are either going to have to sell at a lower price than they had expected (and probably face even greater losses at this stage of the ramp-up than they had planned for), r they are going to have a lower volume of sales than they had expected (and the ramp-up will be slower than they had expected).


Either way, I suspect that the emergence of the Chinese and the drop in 4K pricing being driven by Vizio has likely made the business challenge greater than it appeared when these investment decisions were made last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24487977


As for screen size/cost, somewhere up thread is a breakdown of television sales by size. My cursory search didnt find it, but I am pretty sure that sales of >70" screens is absolutely tiny. There is going to be quite a bit of premium for OLED's of that size but my guess is that is precisely the market that is going to be willing to pay extra for the absolute top of the line picture quality. The real test for LG will be whether they can bring down the price of the 55" version far enough to appeal to non-AV enthusiasts who were previously buying Sony based on their reputation for quality. That market is going to be necessary to justify a 2nd fab.

Remember that we are talking about the premium market only, not the overall market. So 'tiny' is all relative (and it is important to be clear about relative to what), but we were talking about a premium market of about 8 million units in 2018 - so the highest-end 3-4% of the overall market. It would surprise me if the average screen size within that highest-end of the display market is only 55-inches...


Nobody including IHS and Rogo seems to be projecting that OLED will drop prices quickly enough to appeal to the mass-market by 2018. so premium pricing for 65-75" OLED TVs that dominate that high-end segment by 2018 seems to be the more realistic target.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24488007


Doesn't the potential customer pool for 55" panels expand when you factor in the void created by Panasonic's disappearance (in the case of the VT60)? Now you did state non-AV enthusiasts, but I rather doubt Sony's LCDs are/were a greater bargain than said Panasonic's (haven't done the actual pricing research).

What about the Samsung plasmas (for as long as they last)???


It's an interesting and important question as to how many people would be willing to shell out $7500 for a fantastic 55" TV this year...


The price drops to $4500 of the 55-inch 2013 model are no doubt generating some increased sales, but it is not yet clear if that is a sustainable price and I believe the expectation is that the 2014 55" OLED will be priced higher than that. And as an example of that the LG 55EA8800 is available on Amazon now at an MSRP of $10,000 discounted down to $7500.


That is more likely a sustainable price, but it is unclear what volume of demand is going to be generated at that price for such a small screen size...


$7500 for a 55" 1080p OLED versus less than a third of that for a 60" F8500 - not sure that decision is such a no-brainer for anyone inclined to see how the dust settles over the next 12-18 months before being stuck with a very expensive and quickly obsolete 2014 OLED...


It's all just not an obvious slam-dunk yet - that is the only point I am trying to make.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24488007


Doesn't the potential customer pool for 55" panels expand when you factor in the void created by Panasonic's disappearance (in the case of the VT60)? Now you did state non-AV enthusiasts, but I rather doubt Sony's LCDs are/were a greater bargain than said Panasonic's (haven't done the actual pricing research).

I didnt explain that comment well. I was trying to get across that the perception of OLED picture quality needs to move beyond the average AVS Forum vistor to the general high-end customer. It seems to me that plasma never managed to make this jump. While plasma's won the various shoot-outs and Kuro's were considered best of breed, the average upper middle class consumer never perceived much of a difference between plasmas and LCD's. There are all sorts of reasons for this, but whatever the explanation, OLED's will absolutely have to deliver that kind of differentiation if/when they move into the $2500 type of price point.


Looking back a few years, there was a time when Sony was automatically perceived to have the best quality. If you asked who made the best quality TV's, regardless of price, Sony was the answer for the general public (regardless if this was actually true). The question was simply whether you were willing to pay the premium to buy the Sony.


I think that OLED's need to get to a similar position. If you ask which technology has the best picture quality, the answer for the general public needs to clearly be OLED's. It is that kind of perception that will allow OLED"s to dominate the high-end while still having at least some price premium to LCD's.
 

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Thanks for the clarification, Slack. I actually loathe the fact that the public is largely ignorant of the better panels from Pioneer, Panasonic, and Sharp over the past half-decade and are brainwashed into believing the justification of the Sony premium.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8700_100#post_24488273


What about the Samsung plasmas (for as long as they last)???
They're okay....however, I was only including the premium offerings from both companies, and the F8500 isn't manufactured in the 55" variety.
Quote:
$7500 for a 55" 1080p OLED versus less than a third of that for a 60" F8500 - not sure that decision is such a no-brainer for anyone inclined to see how the dust settles over the next 12-18 months before being stuck with a very expensive and quickly obsolete 2014 OLED...
$7500 is too hard a pill too swallow for the vast majority. It'll be interesting how quickly it takes to reach last year's current clearance price. I find the obsolescence angle to be a bit artificially manufactured by the CEMs due to the lack of content. No guarantee of a BD 4K disc, and streaming is just not a viable solution for anyone without the most robust of connections. Factor in the typical lesser quality of 1080p streaming in comparison to disc-based media and a set that is 55", and the screams of obsolescence don't have that much in the way of resonance. Depending on how well the CEMs manage to convince the public of the need to upgrade, it could be that I'll hold the minority opinion.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24488250


On the other hand, decision are being made in the context of a moving target, so accuracy of market forecast is a major risk factor. Kind of like skiing down an avalanche. When decision were made to invest in this first plant and what objectives were in terms of yields, costs, etc, that was likely last year before anyone could have forecasted what has happened to pricing in 2014.


If LG had forecasted 55" 4K FALD LED/LCD being available in 2014 for $1400, they knew what they were getting into and should come out fine (assuming yields and costs hit the targets they believed would be achievable).


On the other hand, if LG made those investment decisions in the context of an assumption that prices in 2014 and 2015 for 55" 4K FALD LED/LCD would be in the $4-5 range, that wlll mean that they are either going to have to sell at a lower price than they had expected (and probably face even greater losses at this stage of the ramp-up than they had planned for), r they are going to have a lower volume of sales than they had expected (and the ramp-up will be slower than they had expected).

If $1400 for a 4k FALD LCD is the line in the sand on price, then everybody outside of Vizio is doomed. I have my doubts that it is going to play out like that. Sony, Samsung, and the rest of the vendors still have 4K televisions selling for a substantial premium to Vizio and those will be the first to be challenged by OLED's.


I do agree about the moving target though. The quick transition to 4K had to complicate LG's plans. They will need to hit very good yields on their backplane to bring down the premium for 4K. As with LCD, there is no fundamental reason for 4K to cost much more than 1080p.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24488297


Thanks for the clarification, Slack. I actually loathe the fact that the public is largely ignorant of the better panels from Pioneer, Panasonic, and Sharp over the past half-decade and are brainwashed into believing the justification of the Sony premium.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8700_100#post_24488273


What about the Samsung plasmas (for as long as they last)???
They're okay....however, I was only including the premium offerings from both companies, and the F8500 isn't manufactured in the 55" variety.
Quote:
$7500 for a 55" 1080p OLED versus less than a third of that for a 60" F8500 - not sure that decision is such a no-brainer for anyone inclined to see how the dust settles over the next 12-18 months before being stuck with a very expensive and quickly obsolete 2014 OLED...
$7500 is too hard a pill too swallow for the vast majority. It'll be interesting how quickly it takes to reach last year's current clearance price. I find the obsolescence angle to be a bit artificially manufactured by the CEMs due to the lack of content. No guarantee of a BD 4K disc, and streaming is just not a viable solution for anyone without the most robust of connections. Factor in the typical lesser quality of 1080p streaming in comparison to disc-based media and a set that is 55", and the screams of obsolescence don't have that much in the way of resonance. Depending on how well the CEMs manage to convince the public of the need to upgrade, it could be that I'll hold the minority opinion.

My apologies, I should have been more clear - I was actually referring to obsolescence not tied to 4K/UHD/content-evolution-related, but OLED technology-related. What is out there today (2013's, first 2014's) and will be coming out this year is still first-generation technology in terms of volume sales and use by consumers, so I don't think it is a safe assumption to assume that this first generation is 'fully-baked' and that there will not be some attractive enhancements offered in next-generation OLEDs introduced a year from now.


The 4K stuff is in addition to that (though there should be 4K OLEDs soon).
 

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Originally Posted by slacker711  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24488308

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Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24488250


On the other hand, decision are being made in the context of a moving target, so accuracy of market forecast is a major risk factor. Kind of like skiing down an avalanche. When decision were made to invest in this first plant and what objectives were in terms of yields, costs, etc, that was likely last year before anyone could have forecasted what has happened to pricing in 2014.


If LG had forecasted 55" 4K FALD LED/LCD being available in 2014 for $1400, they knew what they were getting into and should come out fine (assuming yields and costs hit the targets they believed would be achievable).


On the other hand, if LG made those investment decisions in the context of an assumption that prices in 2014 and 2015 for 55" 4K FALD LED/LCD would be in the $4-5 range, that wlll mean that they are either going to have to sell at a lower price than they had expected (and probably face even greater losses at this stage of the ramp-up than they had planned for), r they are going to have a lower volume of sales than they had expected (and the ramp-up will be slower than they had expected).
If $1400 for a 4k FALD LCD is the line in the sand on price, then everybody outside of Vizio is doomed. I have my doubts that it is going to play out like that. Sony, Samsung, and the rest of the vendors still have 4K televisions selling for a substantial premium to Vizio and those will be the first to be challenged by OLED's.


I do agree about the moving target though. The quick transition to 4K had to complicate LG's plans. They will need to hit very good yields on their backplane to bring down the premium for 4K. As with LCD, there is no fundamental reason for 4K to cost much more than 1080p.

You are finally beginning to get it



All kidding aside, if Visio delivers the P Series and establishes 55" 4K FALD with good PQ for $1400, they will have shifted the market. They have not done it yet, they need to deliver and the resulting product needs to perform, but within 3-6 months that shift will either have happened or it will have been a false alarm. It would be suicidal to be betting on Vzio's failure - to do so in the case you were wrong would mean being totally out of alignment with the market shift.


Look at what Sharp has been doing. They introduced the SQ Quatron+ 1080p+/4K- line to offer 'near 4K' at a much more affordable price to a growing population of consumers interested in 4K but unable to afford the premium being charged by Sony and Samsung.


Those sets were introduced at CES and the 60" SQ had an MSRP of $2400. That's a pretty attractive price compared to the prices Sony and Samsung are charging for 'true' 4K.


That was only two months ago - those panels have just started hitting the market this month and with less than 2 weeks of sales under their belt, they are already available for a street price of $1740. That is a discount of 27.5% within the first 2 weeks of sales! The price of the Vizio 60" P Series? $1800.


For the 70" Sharp SQ, MSRP is $3400 currently discounted by 35% to $2200 against a 70" Vizio P Series that has an MSRP of $2600.


Sharp understands how Vizio's 2014 pricing has changed the world and they are reacting accordingly in an effort to not be left holding the bag.


LG is no doubt aware of this shift as well and so we'll see how it plays out as they introduce their larger OLED panels and the year unfolds...


If Sony is able to sell their 65" X950B for $8,000 in 2014 despite the fact that that is 'old' pricing, then LG should be fine. If you see that price slashed in half soon after introduction, it's a clear indication of blood in the water. Samsung 'leaked' pricing for their 65-inch H9000 and H8500 later than Sony and at $5000 and $4000, so they have already taken a big step towards adjusting to the new reality (compared to Sony). With a 55" Samsung H9000 edge-lit UHD selling for $4000 against an 55" Vizio P Series FALD UHD priced at $1400, it will be interesting to see how long Samsung is able to maintain their price premium of 185%...


Samsung will survive. LG will survive. Sharp may or may not survive. Sony should be able to survive for at least another year unless they stick their head in the sand. But odds are that $1400 for a 55-inch 4k FALD LCD is becoming a reality this year and all of these company's are going to be under significant financial strain (in terms of pricing and margins). It is likely to be a bloodbath. Looking at Sharp, it is likely already a bloodbath.


What this new reality will end up meaning for LGs OLED plans it is too early to say. By this year's Black Friday the dust will probably have settled even though it will probably take another 2-3 months for all of us to understand how.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8700_100#post_24488352


My apologies, I should have been more clear - I was actually referring to obsolescence not tied to 4K/UHD/content-evolution-related, but OLED technology-related. What is out there today (2013's, first 2014's) and will be coming out this year is still first-generation technology in terms of volume sales and use by consumers, so I don't think it is a safe assumption to assume that this first generation is 'fully-baked' and that there will not be some attractive enhancements offered in next-generation OLEDs introduced a year from now.


The 4K stuff is in addition to that (though there should be 4K OLEDs soon).
Ah, you mean like motion resolution enhancements and/or the like?
 

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Originally Posted by vinnie97  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8790#post_24488412

Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd  /t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/8700_100#post_24488352


My apologies, I should have been more clear - I was actually referring to obsolescence not tied to 4K/UHD/content-evolution-related, but OLED technology-related. What is out there today (2013's, first 2014's) and will be coming out this year is still first-generation technology in terms of volume sales and use by consumers, so I don't think it is a safe assumption to assume that this first generation is 'fully-baked' and that there will not be some attractive enhancements offered in next-generation OLEDs introduced a year from now.


The 4K stuff is in addition to that (though there should be 4K OLEDs soon).
Ah, you mean like motion resolution enhancements and/or the like?

That would be an example, but a relatively benign one. Burn-in and/or image retention would be a more serious example...
 
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