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some more tidbits on QD-OLED ongoing development.
 

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‘Samsung Display is planning to send its prototypes of QD-OLED TVs and a monitor to potential customers this month.’

‘The samples are for a 4K QD-OLED TV, a 8K QD-OLED TV and a QD-OLED monitor.’

‘Samsung Display has previously sent QD-OLED panel samples to its potential customers, but these samples were not in a completed product format and were made to inspect the quality of the panels. The samples that will be sent this month will be a prototype that is a completed product.’

‘Samsung Display will conduct a market review in September. If the results are favorable, it will begin production of QD-OLED TV and monitor panels in November. System LSI’s T-Con will be in the customer sample stages before November.’
 

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some more tidbits on QD-OLED ongoing development.
Great minds think alike? ;)

This is more or less a repeat of the same plan that was disclosed in April.

The one new tidbit is the fact that Samsung Display has commissioned Samsung LSI (the chip branch) to tool up a custom TCON controller chip for QD-OLED.

The one aspect that doesn’t quite square is that the ‘June samples’ will be completed TVs and yet ‘System LSI’s T-Con will be in the customer sample stages before November.’

So sounds like whatever samples Samsung Visual Display and Sony get this month will either be ‘fresh-out-of-the-fab’ engineering samples or will be based on a prototype T-Con using other chips.

It sounds as though they’ll at least be in a position to launch production of 2022 models before the end of this year (though customer samples of the new T-CON in November is cutting it exceedingly close for CES ‘22 product announcements).
 

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Mid- to large-sized OLED panel sales jump 156% in Q1
 

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Nanosys shakes the microLED world with glō Acquisition – An interview by Yole Developpement
 

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I wasted some time today analyzing the impact of MMG on LGD’s 8.5G manufacturing lines and the results were surprising enough that I thought I’d share:

8.5G was optimized for 48” (8-up) and 55” (6-up) panel manufacturing, so I’m going to use the utilization rate of those two panel sizes to compare the relative efficiency of LGD’s other panel offerings on 8.5G with and without MMG

Kerf (border around active array) is an important factor and I’m going to use the ~6.5mm border I’ve measured on my 65” WOLED to calculate panel requirements:

55” (54.6”) 8.5G utilization = 92.3%
48” (48.2”) 8.5G utilization = 94.4%

So achieving utilization rates above 92% is generally considered ‘optimal’ and means production costs at 10.5G are unlikely to be much better at 10.5G (and can easily be worse, depending on panel size).

65” (64.5”) 8.5G utilization = 64.1% w/o MMG
65” (64.5”) 8.5G utilization = 96.2% w/ MMG
65” (64.5”) 10.5G utilization = 95.0%

MMG means 65” WOLED utilization on 8.5G substrate is now better than either 55” or 48” and LGD will have better utilization manufacturing 65” panels on 8.5G with MMG than manufacturing them at 10.5G (95.0%).

77”(76.7”) 8.5G utilization = 60.2% w/o MMG
77”((76.7”) 8.5G utilization = 80.3% w/ MMG
75” (75.0”) 10.5G utilization = 94.6%

So MMG reduced raw 77” WOLED panel costs by ~25%, but moving to 10.5G (with a slightly smaller panel size of 75”) is going to reduce raw 75” WOLED costs by an additional ~32% beyond 8.5G w/ MMG (to ~half of the cost on 8.5G w/o MMG!).

83” (82.5”) 8.5G utilization w/o MMG = 70.0%
83” (82.5”) 8.5G utilization w/ MMG = 93.3%
83” (82.5”) 10.5G utilization = 58.3%

This newly-introduced panel size was optimized for 8.5G with MMG and will never be produced on 10.5G.

42” (42.0”?) 8.5G utilization w/o MMG = 73.5%
42” (42.0”?) 8.5G utilization w/ MMG = 98%

Another new panel size that has been optimized for 8.5G…

88” (87.6”) 8.5G utilization w/o MMG = 78.3%
88” (87.6”) 8.5G utilization w/ MMG = 96.3%
88” (87.6”) 10.5G utilization = 65%

Another panel size that will never make sense to move to 10.5G now that LGD has MMG for 8.5G…

So the bottom line from all of this is that the only reason LGD really needs to invest in ramping up 10.5G manufacturing is when they see enough demand of 75” WOLED panels to justify he move (meaning ~250K 75” WOLED panels per month or 3M 75” WOLED panels per year assuming LGD aims to fill initial capacity of 45,000 10.5G substrates / month with 75” WOLED panel production.

That level of demand for 75” WOLEDs is likely a long way off, so LGD could fill a new 10.5G line with 65” and 75” WOLED panel production once 65” WOLED demand approaches 340k/month (4M /year), a level that we should start approaching by next year and should safely reach before 2025…
 

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6F7F7808-9BC9-4662-9410-73A287D66390.png


This is a mixture of QD-LCD and WOLED in LGE’s case, but remarkable nonetheless.

In Q1, 2021, LGE was close to parity with Samsung in TV’s selling for $1000-1500 (LGE ~80% of Samsung) but was slightly ahead Samsung’s share in the $1500-2000 segment and at parity in the $3000-5000 category (where the 77” WOLEDs are selling).

Summing it all up LGE appears to have been ahead by a nose:

‘Taking a more conservative view of the definition of Advanced TV by eliminating the <$1,000 category, LGE and Samsung were close in shipment volume in Q121 with 34% and 30% shares respectively’

Why does this matter? We’ll here’s another story from Musings analyzing how Samsung has aggressively discounted Advanced TV prices just weeks after launch in response to the market share they lost in Q1: Samsung Discounts Advanced TVs to Compete with LGE and TCL_06/05/21

Samsung is discounting 10 of its new TV models within two weeks of releasing them as they lost share in the Advanced TV market and TCL released their 3rd generation Mini LED TVs, which will soon be available in the US at prices substantially less than Samsung Neo Series.’

02E5AC4E-7D03-4550-9089-C2103DEF6A75.png


Samsung may or may not succeed in reversing market share losses through the rest of this year, but profitability is going to get squeezed in any case.

I think this is an important context for the QD-BOLED decision Samsung will be making in September and even more importantly, any decision Samsung makes to actually commit to WOLED sales in 2022.

2022 is going to be a year of continued market share losses and/or abysmal profitability for Samsung without WOLED offerings. QD-BOLED can’t move the needle on 2022 in any case and won’t be able to move the needle on 2023 either if Samsung decides to delay the ramp/launch for another year come September.

Interesting times in the display world…
 

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Great minds think alike? ;)

This is more or less a repeat of the same plan that was disclosed in April.

The one new tidbit is the fact that Samsung Display has commissioned Samsung LSI (the chip branch) to tool up a custom TCON controller chip for QD-OLED.

The one aspect that doesn’t quite square is that the ‘June samples’ will be completed TVs and yet ‘System LSI’s T-Con will be in the customer sample stages before November.’

So sounds like whatever samples Samsung Visual Display and Sony get this month will either be ‘fresh-out-of-the-fab’ engineering samples or will be based on a prototype T-Con using other chips.

It sounds as though they’ll at least be in a position to launch production of 2022 models before the end of this year (though customer samples of the new T-CON in November is cutting it exceedingly close for CES ‘22 product announcements).
I also would take the English translation with a grain of salt, especially when things don't seem to add up. All that means I guess is it would be nice to get a second source report on the chip timing. Cheers-
 

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I wasted some time today analyzing the impact of MMG on LGD’s 8.5G manufacturing lines and the results were surprising enough that I thought I’d share:

8.5G was optimized for 48” (8-up) and 55” (6-up) panel manufacturing, so I’m going to use the utilization rate of those two panel sizes to compare the relative efficiency of LGD’s other panel offerings on 8.5G with and without MMG

Kerf (border around active array) is an important factor and I’m going to use the ~6.5mm border I’ve measured on my 65” WOLED to calculate panel requirements:

55” (54.6”) 8.5G utilization = 92.3%
48” (48.2”) 8.5G utilization = 94.4%

So achieving utilization rates above 92% is generally considered ‘optimal’ and means production costs at 10.5G are unlikely to be much better at 10.5G (and can easily be worse, depending on panel size).

65” (64.5”) 8.5G utilization = 64.1% w/o MMG
65” (64.5”) 8.5G utilization = 96.2% w/ MMG
65” (64.5”) 10.5G utilization = 95.0%

MMG means 65” WOLED utilization on 8.5G substrate is now better than either 55” or 48” and LGD will have better utilization manufacturing 65” panels on 8.5G with MMG than manufacturing them at 10.5G (95.0%).

77”(76.7”) 8.5G utilization = 60.2% w/o MMG
77”((76.7”) 8.5G utilization = 80.3% w/ MMG
75” (75.0”) 10.5G utilization = 94.6%

So MMG reduced raw 77” WOLED panel costs by ~25%, but moving to 10.5G (with a slightly smaller panel size of 75”) is going to reduce raw 75” WOLED costs by an additional ~32% beyond 8.5G w/ MMG (to ~half of the cost on 8.5G w/o MMG!).

83” (82.5”) 8.5G utilization w/o MMG = 70.0%
83” (82.5”) 8.5G utilization w/ MMG = 93.3%
83” (82.5”) 10.5G utilization = 58.3%

This newly-introduced panel size was optimized for 8.5G with MMG and will never be produced on 10.5G.

42” (42.0”?) 8.5G utilization w/o MMG = 73.5%
42” (42.0”?) 8.5G utilization w/ MMG = 98%

Another new panel size that has been optimized for 8.5G…

88” (87.6”) 8.5G utilization w/o MMG = 78.3%
88” (87.6”) 8.5G utilization w/ MMG = 96.3%
88” (87.6”) 10.5G utilization = 65%

Another panel size that will never make sense to move to 10.5G now that LGD has MMG for 8.5G…

So the bottom line from all of this is that the only reason LGD really needs to invest in ramping up 10.5G manufacturing is when they see enough demand of 75” WOLED panels to justify he move (meaning ~250K 75” WOLED panels per month or 3M 75” WOLED panels per year assuming LGD aims to fill initial capacity of 45,000 10.5G substrates / month with 75” WOLED panel production.

That level of demand for 75” WOLEDs is likely a long way off, so LGD could fill a new 10.5G line with 65” and 75” WOLED panel production once 65” WOLED demand approaches 340k/month (4M /year), a level that we should start approaching by next year and should safely reach before 2025…
I've been saying for years that 75" appears to me to be the future plateau for annually increasing diagonal trend (in volume) for fixed TV (not projector). I base that on my understanding of worldwide dwelling sizes (and therefore wall space). I wonder if LG thinks the same (and OEMs in general)? My point in posting this is I'd love to have someone point to research either confirming that plateau (or lower) or forecasting a continued increase in diagonal beyond 75" with associated reasoning. Cheers
 

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The one aspect that doesn’t quite square is that the ‘June samples’ will be completed TVs and yet ‘System LSI’s T-Con will be in the customer sample stages before November.’
The manufacture procedure is as follows.
1st Engineering Sample
2nd Working Sample
3rd Pre Production
4th Mass Production
If you have just completed a prototype, it is a "working sample".
The June sample may be using FPGAs.
 

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I've been saying for years that 75" appears to me to be the future plateau for annually increasing diagonal trend (in volume) for fixed TV (not projector). I base that on my understanding of worldwide dwelling sizes (and therefore wall space). I wonder if LG thinks the same (and OEMs in general)? My point in posting this is I'd love to have someone point to research either confirming that plateau (or lower) or forecasting a continued increase in diagonal beyond 75" with associated reasoning. Cheers
I think that's right. 85-90" will still grow especially in the US but I don't think it will ever become the new main size like we've seen with 55, 65, and starting to see with 75. And there's still a lot of people for whom 75 is too big so I think even that size will never become as focal as 65 has become.
 

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If this turning point materializes as being forecast by DSCC, it’s likely to mean some especially steeply-discounted TVs come this Black Friday Shopping Season: LCD Supply Demand Shifting to Oversupply - Display Supply Chain Consultants

‘While demand for in-home entertainment soared during the pandemic, US consumers are starting to spend more on travel and other areas that were restricted during lockdown, and therefore will spend less on TVs. We estimate that US TV shipments in the second quarter of 2021 are likely to be about the same as 2019 and down 24% Y/Y from 2020.

‘With this combination of factors, DSCC has concluded that the reversal of supply and demand for large LCDs has begun.’
 

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Nanosys shakes the microLED world with glō Acquisition – An interview by Yole Developpement
Why do I think the reason we are not seeing microLED, and instead seeing all this work to improve OLED (QD) going on is because the corporations realize once someone buys a microLED, it wont be selling them another TV for a decade while they know the lifespan of OLED is not infinite and has about reached peak brightness, and LCD has inherent issues with blooming and blacks meaning people will still upgrade as new tricks like Mini-LED are introduced, the ODZero, then 8K. A good microLED would last 2X longer than even the best current TV. I just feel if they can shrink organic LEDs they can shrink non-organic microLEDs but are holding back on purpose.
 

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Not a lot of new info in this NIKKEI article, but useful to post in that they appear to see things similarly. Saving jobs as a reason to continue the LCD fabs into 2022 hasn't been discussed much here as far as I remember though. Also, I wonder if SEC having a captive supply of chips from their in-house division will indeed position them for significantly higher sales into '22-'23 vs the competition w/o such in-house capabilities. Though that itself is off topic, if it was substantial it would be a factor in a QD-OLED decision at least to some degree.

"Samsung Electronics intends to manufacture liquid crystal display panels through the end of 2022, reversing plans to end production due to an unexpected spike in demand."
"But the change in plan also highlights Samsung's difficulty in developing next-generation displays, and the tech giant's outlook after the pandemic-driven demand fizzles remains uncertain."
"But Samsung's decision to extend production also suggests the company is not progressing as planned with development of next-generation displays, which were to be mass-produced at the Asan plant."
"With the pricing edge for LCD panels, the tech group apparently thinks continuing output is more advantageous, especially from the perspective of maintaining jobs."
""Demand is starting to soften, and supply may begin to overwhelm demand in the second half of this year," said Yoshio Tamura, president of Asian operations at U.S.-based research firm DSCC."


 

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Why do I think the reason we are not seeing microLED, and instead seeing all this work to improve OLED (QD) going on is because the corporations realize once someone buys a microLED, it wont be selling them another TV for a decade while they know the lifespan of OLED is not infinite and has about reached peak brightness, and LCD has inherent issues with blooming and blacks meaning people will still upgrade as new tricks like Mini-LED are introduced, the ODZero, then 8K. A good microLED would last 2X longer than even the best current TV. I just feel if they can shrink organic LEDs they can shrink non-organic microLEDs but are holding back on purpose.
We have no idea how long a microLED would last. People seem to be assuming they will somehow last longer and have less chance of burn-in than OLED, but we don't actually know that. People also seem to assume they are close to being able to produce them, which I don't think is actually the case. Someone needs to find a reliable cheap way to put the individual LEDs onto the panel, and that does not sound easy at all.

And any company that could make one to sell affordably would be taking market share from its competitors. Who cares how long until they sell you another TV? There are plenty more customers to steal from the other brands. Besides they will find new features to add that make some people want to upgrade, even just larger screen sizes.

OLED is manufactured in a totally different way than microLED so far. OLED is just putting the white OLED material (in theory, not entirely in practice) equally across the panel, and then using a simple color filter to make some subpixels red, green or blue and leaving one white. The white OLED is made of layers of different colors, but they are all activated at the same time whenever the subpixel is on and then filtered. Not efficient to throw away a lot of the light, but cheap and simple to make.

MicroLED so far seems to be producing red green and blue LEDs, and then moving each one onto the panel and trying to hook them up to the control circuitry. I read some kind of electrostatic alignment (or something) is used to help with this, but it might not always work 100%. I think for some of the large panels they are just physically placing the LEDs on the panel module. But you are moving and attaching 24 million LEDs for a 4K display. Almost 100 million LEDs for an 8K display. And if you don't want to allow any dead pixels, none of those can fail. Try performing 24 or 100 million tiny operations without any errors, then try to do it cheap enough that you can sell it. Good luck to those that are trying. Based on the numbers that have been posted here, I get the impression Samsung is making and selling less than 100 microLED TVs per year at this point. So yes they exist, but at this point they are about as exclusive as hypercars and about as hand made too.
 

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Not a lot of new info in this NIKKEI article, but useful to post in that they appear to see things similarly. Saving jobs as a reason to continue the LCD fabs into 2022 hasn't been discussed much here as far as I remember though. Also, I wonder if SEC having a captive supply of chips from their in-house division will indeed position them for significantly higher sales into '22-'23 vs the competition w/o such in-house capabilities. Though that itself is off topic, if it was substantial it would be a factor in a QD-OLED decision at least to some degree.

"Samsung Electronics intends to manufacture liquid crystal display panels through the end of 2022, reversing plans to end production due to an unexpected spike in demand."
"But the change in plan also highlights Samsung's difficulty in developing next-generation displays, and the tech giant's outlook after the pandemic-driven demand fizzles remains uncertain."
"But Samsung's decision to extend production also suggests the company is not progressing as planned with development of next-generation displays, which were to be mass-produced at the Asan plant."
"With the pricing edge for LCD panels, the tech group apparently thinks continuing output is more advantageous, especially from the perspective of maintaining jobs."
""Demand is starting to soften, and supply may begin to overwhelm demand in the second half of this year," said Yoshio Tamura, president of Asian operations at U.S.-based research firm DSCC."


Yeah, they are taking the ‘continued LCD manufacturing through end 2022’ as a done deal, as well as another delay in QD-BOLED launch.

Since the ‘June samples’ have not yet gone out, it’s hard to understand whether they are forecasting a foregone conclusion or they have inside information on some change in the plan for QD-BOLED.

The ‘saving jobs’ angle only makes sense if Samsung Display knows they have nothing new to start producing in their fabs as they shutdown LCD manufacturing. So if they continue to see a bright future for QD-BOLED but have determined they need another year, this all makes sense…

The other angle to consider is what this may mean for any plans Samsung had to launch QD-BOLED. There will be a 1-2 year gap between when Samsung shuts down LCD manufacturing and when QD-BOLED has ramped to fill those 8.5G fabs (assuming all goes as well as possible).

That gap will be a period of vulnerability for SVD, certainly as far as profitability but also in terms of supply, so the ‘let’s commit to 5 million WOLED panels’ seems like a rational decision to hedge their bets and reduce their risk during this manufacturing changeover.

With a shift of one year in the overall plan, that may also translate to a 1year shift in whatever supply agreement SVD has been discussing with LGD…

And that may translate to LGD deciding they don’t need to make any further WOLED fab commitments this year.

Guangzhou moving from 60,000 to 90,000 substrates per month gets them to a maximum of ~11million WOLED panels for 2022 which will be sufficient capacity with Samsung and more than enough without them.

The difference between LGD and Samsung Display when it comes to legacy LCD manufacturing, however, is that LGD already has their ‘new thing’ and will be ready to shut down LCD manufacturing and convert to WOLED whenever the bottom falls out of the LCD market (no worries about ‘saving jobs’ for LGD).

So if Samsung delays WOLED demand by ~1 year and the tide starts turning to oversupply in the LCD panel market as DSCC is forecasting, the result may be that LGD elects to move forward with another 8.5G LCD to WOLED fab conversion for 2023/24 rather than restarting their stalled 10.5G manufacturing plan…
 

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Technically they only need blue LEDs and quantum dots according to the article above. Apparently the red is the issue, with those LEDS not being as bright as the blue and green, but using Sony's method of a blue backlight and quantum dots (triluminos) seems to have promise. Curious how long quantum dots last? Do they burn out or lose brightness over time?
 

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So that new pixel structure on the 77-inch model, do we expect that to be used in the 2022 LG models throughout the line?
 

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So that new pixel structure on the 77-inch model, do we expect that to be used in the 2022 LG models throughout the line?
The 48”, 55” and 65” panels have subpixel designs optimized to work with either the newer 3S4C / WBE / Evo-enabled WOLED stack or the older 3S3C / WBC / non-Evo WOLED stack, while the 83” and also purportedly 77” panels have subpixel designs optimized only for the new 3S4C / WBE / Evo-enabled panel.

The difference should translate to larger Red:Green subpixel ratio on the 83” and 77” panels compared to the smaller panel sizes, but we don’t yet have any confirmation of that.

So at a minimum, I’d expect 48”, 55”, and 65” WOLED panels to have different WBE-optimized subpixel designs in 2022, and it’s possible that all panel sizes may have their subpixel sizes tweaked for next year.
 

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Yeah I just ordered a CX for the bedroom.

Going to hold out and see if they use the new stack for 65-inch for the living room next year.
 
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