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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Maybe we should take up a collection?


Here is an article about the lack of HD in Denver but it goes on to question the demand for HD in general:

http://www.msnbc.com/news/752048.asp?0si=-


Quote:


"Despite all these efforts, it’s still unclear whether a demand for HDTV exists. Stations in the San Francisco television market have transmitted HDTV signals for three years, but industry insiders there say they are only broadcasting for about 400 viewers, according to a report in the San Francisco Business Times."


Please don't move this to the locals forum, I think this kind of misinformation is relevant to all.
 

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400? No way even if only 1% of SF bayarea households have HD eq that is 7500 households minimum..


Math:


3,000,000+ residents in the 9 bay area counties


4 persons per household ( on average )


1% of households having HD capable equiptment ( rich area, percentage is very plausable, low perhaps even )


So.... 3,000,000 / 4 X 0.01 = 7500 ( more or less, probably more )
 

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Damn, I think I've talked to everybody that's receiving HD in the Bay Area then! Funny that I know them all! What ********...where did they dig up that figure?


There is a SF Bay Area Yahoo group, "HDTV-in-SFBay", that currently has 211 members. This would represent about 600 plus people right there. I highly doubt every Bay Area viewer found and joined that list. I'd say this 211 represents a very small percentage.....somewhere in the 10 percent range at the most. So this would equate out to 6000 at least.


That 400 figure was likely good 2 years ago, and is being augmented by about 400 a month or so at this point.


Chris
 

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LOL! :)
 

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After the initial denial, I fear that the number 400 for the San Francisco area may be right. At least it "feels" that way.

Among my friends, co-workers, wife's co-workers, etc., I'm the only 1 with HD. Plenty of them have seen it on my TV, but none had taken the plunge yet. Sad thing is that I know they can all afford it.


Then, let's look at it this way:

Let's say there are 100,000 STB's in the U.S., with a population of 250,000,000. The ratio is 1 STB for 2,500 people.

If there are 5,000,000 population in San Fran area, then we have 2,000 STB's, serving roughly 2,000 homes. And 2,000 homes is roughly 6,000 people.


What's the figure on total STB's (includes built-in tuner sets) in the U.S. ? Is it close to 100,000 ?


May be it's a lot more than 400 afterall.
 

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Quote:
What's the figure on total STB's (includes built-in tuner sets) in the U.S. ? Is it close to 100,000 ?
Sales to dealers were over 250,000 as of the end of 2001. Since that time over 1/2 million sets have been sold so assuming 15% of them have tuners (as the CEA said was the current trend) that number is probably closer to 350,000 today. Even accounting for those units in the retail pipeline, I think you need to at least triple your numbers.


Also, your distribution calculations assumed the number of receivers is distributed evenly across the US regardless of how long (if ever) they have had OTA DTV. I believe cities such as San Fran that have had OTA DTV a long time and several channels are much higher than the national average.
 

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Theres a few hundred thousand digital tuners in the field nationwide. But in S.F., a market where theres so many digital stations up and that has 2.5 million tv households does it really matter whether the number is 400, 4000 or even 40,000 (no chance) since no matter how you slice it the number is insignificant. Errr, aside from accuracy in reporting anyway.


Some day there will be a significant number of digital viewers though. Either when cable gets it's act together and starts actually carrying the digital signals or when digital tuners are included in sets and/or only cost a hundred bucks as a standalone unit.
 

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Try it this way...


According to Nielsen... http://www.nielsenmedia.com/DMAs.html


There are 105,444,330 TV Households (TVHH) in the US


In the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA DMA there are 2,426,010 TVHH or 2.30% of total US TVHH


According to CEA...

2000 Sales http://www.ce.org/press_room/press_r...il.asp?id=7135

2001 Sales http://www.ce.org/press_room/press_r...il.asp?id=9917


There have been approximately 250,000 DTV capable receivers and tuners sold to dealers so far in the DTV transition.


Subtract those in use as demos, sold to TV stations or sold to multiple DTV owners and you probably have about 225,000 TVHH capable of receiving DTV signals. This amounts to 0.21% of all TVHH.


This would mean that there are likely just under 6,000 DTV equiped TVHH in the Bay Area DMA.


By comparison, looking at my marketplace...


In the Portland, OR DMA there are 1,069,260 TVHH or 1.01% of total US TVHH


Using the reasoning above would indicate that there are about 2,250 DTV viewers in Portland. I think this is a little low and that the figure is closer to 3,000 based on conversations with dealers.


Its could be a long transition.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Lee, according to your math the approximate number of HDTV equipped households is 5,100. I would guess that this probably a little higher due to the demographics of the area. Probably, even more than your estimate of 6000.


But even with the conservative estimate of 5100, this illustrates how the press consistently under report the penetration of HD. I find it shocking the degree in which they have missed the count.


In this case, they are only claiming 5%-8% of the true number. The numbers of HD penetration may still be relatively small, but that still doesn't excuse the sloppy reporting.


Either they are too lazy to do basic research, or they have an anti-HD agenda.


Richard
 

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Lee Wood,


Your computation is excellent but it misses two points. First, there have been brisk sales since the end of 2001. Second, even the .21% penetration is not unifromly distributed nationwide. It is probably .02% penetration in many cities but probably is now closer to 1% in areas such as the Bay area. If you use 1% the number of HD viewers is 25,000. Not a lot but significant.


Rick R
 

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I cannot imagine how the number is so low given how great the product is. But then again, almost no one has Tivo either.


I watch almost nothing live on TV *except* HD. Alias is gorgeous (yes, so is J. Garner), sports are breathtaking (yes, so is J. Garner), and even the Fox digital widescreen (like on 24) is special to watch.


Mark
 

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There may be thousands of HD sets, but it could be that there are only hundreds of receivers in that area. Let's face it, not many of those expensive boxes hav been sold.
 

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This will sound tired.......blame the broadcasters, they have done virtually nothing to encourage anyone to buy a STB. The most any station is doing with DTV is to hype themselves as being "Digital" a word that most people associate with hype nowadays, little wonder the general public is apathetic about buying STBs.
 

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Like people would buy them anyway at 500.00 and up, a clip? Even the couple million that have already bought the displays and know whats available that could truly take advantage of the digital channels (particularly in the biggest markets where theres a number of digital channels available to them) havent bought them at that price (even though they could probably afford them at that price if anyone could, thus helping to bring the cost down for everyone else). That said, theres no chance that the masses would buy them now either.
 

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Well now in 1939 there were a total of about 400 TV households in all the US and in real terms the sets cost more than the equilivent of $500 in todays dollars, look where that went. Just a matter of getting the masses hooked
 
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