Not true. However, with the way Panasonic and projector technology changes, this will likely be true shortly after the next CES (Epson has announced the new LCDs). For this reason, I'm wondering whether or not I should bother selling my L300u and upgrade to the AE-700. I could have sworn I just went from the AE-100 to the 300 just a while back.
Panasonic AE-900 announced! 1080P
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I think anybody who is looking at this and thinking that the next round of 1080p LCDs after Fujitsu's $25k projector will even be close to the price of the AE700 is dreaming. So, I would say it depends on how much you will be willing to spend.
--Darin
| Originally posted by RobZ Not true. However, with the way Panasonic and projector technology changes, this will likely be true shortly after the next CES (Epson has announced the new LCDs). For this reason, I'm wondering whether or not I should bother selling my L300u and upgrade to the AE-700. |
--Darin
Darin,
There are a few factors as to why the Fujitsu's price is significantly higher than what the D5 based 1080P projectors prices will be. Fujitsu is a high end boutique manufacturer with margins to match. The chips used are much larger than the D5 chips (I believe the Fujitsu chips are something like 1.4" wide versus 0.9" wide for the D5 chips), and therefore much more expensive. The D5 chips will be produced in much greater quantities. The D5 projectors will be offered by large manufacturer's such as Sanyo, Panasonic, and Epson. And finally, there is very little competition for 1080P projectors at this moment. In a years time there will be a host of 1080P LCD projectors based on the D5 chip. This does not mean that we will see 1080P LCD projectors next year priced around 3K, however, I would not be surprised to see some at or a bit above 5K street.
There are a few factors as to why the Fujitsu's price is significantly higher than what the D5 based 1080P projectors prices will be. Fujitsu is a high end boutique manufacturer with margins to match. The chips used are much larger than the D5 chips (I believe the Fujitsu chips are something like 1.4" wide versus 0.9" wide for the D5 chips), and therefore much more expensive. The D5 chips will be produced in much greater quantities. The D5 projectors will be offered by large manufacturer's such as Sanyo, Panasonic, and Epson. And finally, there is very little competition for 1080P projectors at this moment. In a years time there will be a host of 1080P LCD projectors based on the D5 chip. This does not mean that we will see 1080P LCD projectors next year priced around 3K, however, I would not be surprised to see some at or a bit above 5K street.
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There is a huge gap between $2k and $25k, so I wasn't implying these would be at $25k. 
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$5k by this time next year wouldn't surprise me a ton. I think some of these manufacturers will also release 720p D5 units, which will allow them to leave some gap to the 1080p units. And anytime you are talking about a sole source with multiple offerings there is an opportunity for them to price the better stuff a reasonable amount higher. Have we seen prices from Epson for these 1080p D5 panels? It seems that they will have a lot of say in how much of a gap there ends up being between 720p and 1080p units.
Also, I wouldn't call $5k even close to $2k, but it depends on how you look at it.
--Darin
| Originally posted by Scott B There are a few factors as to why the Fujitsu's price is significantly higher than what the D5 based 1080P projectors prices will be. |
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| This does not mean that we will see 1080P LCD projectors next year priced around 3K, however, I would not be surprised to see some at or a bit above 5K street. |
Also, I wouldn't call $5k even close to $2k, but it depends on how you look at it.
--Darin
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I paid $6K almost 5 years ago for my 768P projector (sony 10HT), so if I can buy a 1080P projector next year at this time for the same price, then count me in!
RobZ,
Well let's see -- if I upgrade my L300 to the AE700 now, then the AE900 (or its 1080p equivalent) will be affordable in the next 2 - 3 years. I've had my L300 since last Feb (2003). Unless I upgrade my DVD player (Pany RP91) to a S97 (to upscale to 720p), I can't see where the AE700 will do anything for me except to improve CR (worthwhile, of course).
It looks like the trade-off is upgrade now (D3 to D4) and enjoy improved viewing now or wait another 1-2 years and do a leap-frog (from D3 to D5). I'm assuming our L300's are using the D3s (or am I wrong on that assumption?).
If I was logical, I should upgrade my THX 5.1 receiver and my screen first (they're the oldest components in my HT setup). Then I should worry about the DVD player & PJ. The trouble is that upgrade-itis isn't logical.
Well let's see -- if I upgrade my L300 to the AE700 now, then the AE900 (or its 1080p equivalent) will be affordable in the next 2 - 3 years. I've had my L300 since last Feb (2003). Unless I upgrade my DVD player (Pany RP91) to a S97 (to upscale to 720p), I can't see where the AE700 will do anything for me except to improve CR (worthwhile, of course).
It looks like the trade-off is upgrade now (D3 to D4) and enjoy improved viewing now or wait another 1-2 years and do a leap-frog (from D3 to D5). I'm assuming our L300's are using the D3s (or am I wrong on that assumption?).
If I was logical, I should upgrade my THX 5.1 receiver and my screen first (they're the oldest components in my HT setup). Then I should worry about the DVD player & PJ. The trouble is that upgrade-itis isn't logical.
Not all that far off, now that there are 2 D5 panels
http://www.***************.com/htsth.../page/0#653534
http://www.***************.com/htsth.../page/0#653534
Yes very exciting news on the 3 LCD D5 1080P front. I would hope that pricing will be agressive as they ( 3 LCD camp ) can take tremendous market share and through economies of scale we the consumer will all benefit.
This must be wakeup news for the high priced DLP/LCOS boys kinds of makes them feel like no other....
This must be wakeup news for the high priced DLP/LCOS boys kinds of makes them feel like no other....
I'm going to have to disagree that 3-panel LCD manufacturers will sell 1080p for $8999 in 2005. That price point sounds more like 1-chip DLP products. You have to remember that DLP DMD's are much more expensive to manufacturer compared to LCDs.
I'm going to predict that come next year, Sanyo, Panasonic, and Sony will have a two model line up. A D5 720p and a D5 1080p model. Priced respectively. The D5 720p will be similiarily priced as todays products. While the D5 1080p will be about $4000-$5000 USD max.
With the only exception is Sony, seeing how they make their own panels. They already have a high end product, Quila using their custom SXRD technology. That market is covered. To cover all their bases Sony will probably make some improvements next year on their 2005 720p model. And they may release a 1080p version utilizing UHP lamp to compete in the lower end 1080p segment. Price point? Up to $5500 USD. Or they could go away from the 720p lineup and just up the ante with a full blown 2005 VPL-HS 1080p model.
I'm not really a marketing expert, but if I were Sony, I would drop the WVGA model (VPL-HS3) and offer both a new 720p (reduced 2004 model price) & the 1080p model come 2005. And sell the 1080p model about $500-$1000 USD more than the VPL-HS51. Then in 2006, lower their price point for the 1080p model as the market will be flooded with them by then. Now they've got all their bases covered. It just makes business sense.
From the looks of it, there is so much more interest in 3-panel 720p LCD's now, manfucturers will be able to afford a reduced pricing for 1080p in 2005. Just hope they can keep up with the demands.
In conclusion, we'll probably see really good pricing for 1080p 3-panel LCD products in 2005. Of course, they won't want us to think like that so they can sell more 720p products this coming year,
I'm going to predict that come next year, Sanyo, Panasonic, and Sony will have a two model line up. A D5 720p and a D5 1080p model. Priced respectively. The D5 720p will be similiarily priced as todays products. While the D5 1080p will be about $4000-$5000 USD max.
With the only exception is Sony, seeing how they make their own panels. They already have a high end product, Quila using their custom SXRD technology. That market is covered. To cover all their bases Sony will probably make some improvements next year on their 2005 720p model. And they may release a 1080p version utilizing UHP lamp to compete in the lower end 1080p segment. Price point? Up to $5500 USD. Or they could go away from the 720p lineup and just up the ante with a full blown 2005 VPL-HS 1080p model.
I'm not really a marketing expert, but if I were Sony, I would drop the WVGA model (VPL-HS3) and offer both a new 720p (reduced 2004 model price) & the 1080p model come 2005. And sell the 1080p model about $500-$1000 USD more than the VPL-HS51. Then in 2006, lower their price point for the 1080p model as the market will be flooded with them by then. Now they've got all their bases covered. It just makes business sense.
From the looks of it, there is so much more interest in 3-panel 720p LCD's now, manfucturers will be able to afford a reduced pricing for 1080p in 2005. Just hope they can keep up with the demands.
In conclusion, we'll probably see really good pricing for 1080p 3-panel LCD products in 2005. Of course, they won't want us to think like that so they can sell more 720p products this coming year,
I estimated elsewhere a $600 delta in parts costs between the 720p units and the 1080p units -- assumuing same generation of LCD parts. By my math -- for what it's worth, that should "logically" yield a delta of ~$2000 between the equivalent projector in the two resolutions.
If you can still buy a Panasonic AE700-class machine (or its successor) for $2000ish, you should very naturally be able to buy the 1080p model for $4000ish. I'd be surprised if the MSRP is >$4995, especially given what will be continued price erosion in DLP.
Mark
If you can still buy a Panasonic AE700-class machine (or its successor) for $2000ish, you should very naturally be able to buy the 1080p model for $4000ish. I'd be surprised if the MSRP is >$4995, especially given what will be continued price erosion in DLP.
Mark
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