I'm going to have to disagree that 3-panel LCD manufacturers will sell 1080p for $8999 in 2005. That price point sounds more like 1-chip DLP products. You have to remember that DLP DMD's are much more expensive to manufacturer compared to LCDs.
I'm going to predict that come next year, Sanyo, Panasonic, and Sony will have a two model line up. A D5 720p and a D5 1080p model. Priced respectively. The D5 720p will be similiarily priced as todays products. While the D5 1080p will be about $4000-$5000 USD max.
With the only exception is Sony, seeing how they make their own panels. They already have a high end product, Quila using their custom SXRD technology. That market is covered. To cover all their bases Sony will probably make some improvements next year on their 2005 720p model. And they may release a 1080p version utilizing UHP lamp to compete in the lower end 1080p segment. Price point? Up to $5500 USD. Or they could go away from the 720p lineup and just up the ante with a full blown 2005 VPL-HS 1080p model.
I'm not really a marketing expert, but if I were Sony, I would drop the WVGA model (VPL-HS3) and offer both a new 720p (reduced 2004 model price) & the 1080p model come 2005. And sell the 1080p model about $500-$1000 USD more than the VPL-HS51. Then in 2006, lower their price point for the 1080p model as the market will be flooded with them by then. Now they've got all their bases covered. It just makes business sense.
From the looks of it, there is so much more interest in 3-panel 720p LCD's now, manfucturers will be able to afford a reduced pricing for 1080p in 2005. Just hope they can keep up with the demands.
In conclusion, we'll probably see really good pricing for 1080p 3-panel LCD products in 2005. Of course, they won't want us to think like that so they can sell more 720p products this coming year,
