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Paradox: Blu-ray success could distract Sony's HD download development?

2331 Views 36 Replies 21 Participants Last post by K.L., Jan 14, 2008

KosminenPoika

Discussion Starter · Jan 14, 2008

Here's a viewpoint I hadn't considered. A brief, interesting read:

Sony may regret victory in video war

From the closing summary...
In other words, Sony faces a paradox: the impending success of Blu-ray could be bad news for the company because it will distract it from the real task of developing digital download systems. Blu-ray might well turn out to be the worst thing that ever happened to the Japanese electronics company.
The author is no tech insider - just a business columnist with the above view.

1 - 20 of 37 Posts

ssjLancer

· #2 · Jan 14, 2008

I think DD will expand the movie market rather than just eat away at DVD/BD sales.

Also, Blu Ray isnt just about the movie industry. He's forgetting about computer drives too. 20gb flash drives arent exactly cheap enough to be disposable anytime soon.

Richard Paul

· #3 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by KosminenPoika /forum/post/12803579

Sony may regret victory in video war

From the closing summary...
In other words, Sony faces a paradox: the impending success of Blu-ray could be bad news for the company because it will distract it from the real task of developing digital download systems. Blu-ray might well turn out to be the worst thing that ever happened to the Japanese electronics company.

I would disagree with that article since even in first world urban centers I don't see video download services replacing optical media for at least a decade or two. As for Blu-ray being the worst thing to happen to Sony I think that prediction is a bit silly and personally speaking I think Blu-ray will help them.

amirm

· #4 · Jan 14, 2008

The writer is quite astute.... You can already see an example of where we are on 360 and where they are in digital distribution. Even large companies have limited resources....

amirm

· #5 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul /forum/post/12803729

I would disagree with that article since even in first world urban centers I don't see video download services replacing optical media for at least a decade or two.

There are 11 million customers in Japan with FFTH which averages 60-70 mbit/sec in real throughput. That is far higher than even BD format can reach. So unless you are telling me that Sony doesn't care about Japanese market, then your statement above is a typical US centric view....

Quote:
As for Blu-ray being the worst thing to happen to Sony I think that prediction is a bit silly and personally speaking I think Blu-ray will help them.

It is a prediction. So you have to wait a while to know if it is true or not

.

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oztech

· #6 · Jan 14, 2008

downloading sd did not kill sd-dvd do you really think downloading hd which is

considerably larger will have a better chance at hd-dvd or blu-ray.

tqlla

· #7 · Jan 14, 2008

Anyways, why would it distract them? VOD is more of a renters market anyway. So they would want to win on both fronts. The PS3 is a great media Center, and is in the homes of millions of people in Japan. Every one has a harddisk that is user replaceable, most are over 40GB, and most have Wifi Ethernet built in...That puts Sony in a good position for VOD rentals.

As far as VOD killing Physical media. PPV has been around for a long time. On Demand HD, has been around for a while, yet the DVD industry is still chugging along. Different markets for different people. And the PS3 is in a good position for both.

B Leisle

· #8 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech /forum/post/12804751

downloading sd did not kill sd-dvd do you really think downloading hd which is

considerably larger will have a better chance at hd-dvd or blu-ray.

Possibly. SD DVD physical disk usage was already grossly embedded in everyone's homes by the time the first download services came along. Even today, SD DVD (or similar quality, like iTunes shows/movies) download services are just getting going. Why should people try something new if what they already have works? Even if someone offers something more convenient and at an equal quality, if they're so ingrained with a certain way of doing something, it's tough to change their ways.

HD usage is tiny right now. If HD downloads pick up steam at a fast enough ascent, it could really hurt optical disks. The vast majority of consumers either don't know exactly what Blu-ray or HD DVD are, or they don't own them. If HD downloads gain more traction than disks, it will be a tough run for disks.

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Semblance

· #9 · Jan 14, 2008

Downloads compete with the rental market, not the purchase-on-disk market. The author is clueless.

ssjLancer

· #10 · Jan 14, 2008

The vast majority of AVS members arent even jumping on non-rental HD download services, yet the average joe is suppose to welcome it with open arms?

This notion that the general public will pick up on downloading movies from the iTunes store faster than going HDM seems pretty unfounded. I cant see most people operating an Apple TV, people are just too used to buying packaged media.

tqlla

· #11 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by B Leisle /forum/post/12804918

Possibly. SD DVD physical disk usage was already grossly embedded in everyone's homes by the time the first download services came along. Even today, SD DVD (or similar quality, like iTunes shows/movies) download services are just getting going. Why should people try something new if what they already have works? Even if someone offers something more convenient and at an equal quality, if they're so ingrained with a certain way of doing something, it's tough to change their ways.

HD usage is tiny right now. If HD downloads pick up steam at a fast enough ascent, it could really hurt optical disks. The vast majority of consumers either don't know exactly what Blu-ray or HD DVD are, or they don't own them. If HD downloads gain more traction than disks, it will be a tough run for disks.

PPV has been around for as long as I can remember.

oztech

· #12 · Jan 14, 2008

i like apple and would have bought an apple tv but no hd content and it will not

allow me to send internet radio through it until then no sale.

30XS955 User

· #13 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm /forum/post/12804631

There are 11 million customers in Japan with FFTH which averages 60-70 mbit/sec in real throughput. That is far higher than even BD format can reach.

.

Amir, this is a non sequitur. The fact remains that the infrastructure by and large does not exist, and will not for some time. Above this, the public has to become computer savy enough to become potential consumers of the product.

You might be trying to suggest that downloads will cannibalize the BD market. I doubt it, unless downloads offer a better product and the purchaser doesn't care about lack of mobility. If he or she does, they'll either download to rent or purchase the BD. Downloads would have to be priced at $5 to own in order to be close to an impulse buy, which is really all it is. But at that price, studios would get maybe $4 for each purchase, in which case they'd rather sell you the BD and make $15.

If anything, low-bit HD downloads will help establish the Playstation brand as the media center of the living room. If you want a film in HD and you have a PS3, you have two options: BD in full 1080, or low-bit or SD downloads. Sony is not upset with where they currently stand, as they will make money either way.

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kizzo

· #14 · Jan 14, 2008

The bottom line is that nothing will replace physical media.. it will always be the most popular format. But all the different formats can co-exist with each other... but don't be foolish to think that it will somehow replace physical media.

Consumers will always want something physical.. including me. I can't rely on just putting my movies on a hard drive. I have to physically OWN the disc.

Faceless Rebel

· #15 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm /forum/post/12804608

The writer is quite astute.... You can already see an example of where we are on 360 and where they are in digital distribution. Even large companies have limited resources....

You can keep saying this but Hollywood will never kowtow to MS and let them have a monopoly on digital distribution. Not now, not ever.

jagouar

· #16 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by kizzo /forum/post/12805306

The bottom line is that nothing will replace physical media.. it will always be the most popular format. But all the different formats can co-exist with each other... but don't be foolish to think that it will somehow replace physical media.

Consumers will always want something physical.. including me. I can't rely on just putting my movies on a hard drive. I have to physically OWN the disc.

i think those subscribing to netflix and the other rental services disagree with you....

http://ir.netflix.com/ (i dont consider netflix to be a physical media outlet even though they send you physical media... because you dont keep it). where the digital downloads can help/take over is the netflix model. and that imo is where all the growth in the market is these days.

30XS955 User

· #17 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by jagouar /forum/post/12805381

i think those subscribing to netflix and the other rental services disagree with you....

http://ir.netflix.com/ (i dont consider netflix to be a physical media outlet even though they send you physical media... because you dont keep it). where the digital downloads can help/take over is the netflix model. and that imo is where all the growth in the market is these days.

Let's just ignore the investor relations stuff for the moment because we all know it's fluff and highly circumstantial in the first place. If netflix customers are anything like I am, they'd rather wait the day for the DVD to come so they can watch it in their player, than go through the hassle of streaming it through their media center (assuming they have one) just to watch in poorer quality.

Getting back to growth, yes online rentals will make up a greater part of netflix rentals in the future. Both could increase at constant rates and the portion of the business concerning downloads will still appear to be growing faster than DVD rentals. Anyone with a brain cell and an understanding of the denominator can figure this out.

amirm

· #18 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Faceless Rebel /forum/post/12805323

You can keep saying this but Hollywood will never kowtow to MS and let them have a monopoly on digital distribution. Not now, not ever.

Who said anything about Microsoft in this thread? Or are you saying no one will give content to Sony either?

Not that your assertion is right about Microsoft anyway as we announced even more studios on board with Xbox including Disney and MGM: http://www.xbox-scene.com/xbox1data/...ykersiilWq.php

Hollywood wants to make money selling movies. But they don't build technology. It is up to companies like Sony, Apple, Microsoft, Comcast, etc. to do that....

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amirm

· #19 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by 30XS955 User /forum/post/12805284

Amir, this is a non sequitur. The fact remains that the infrastructure by and large does not exist, and will not for some time.

Sorry what fact are you using here? I just gave very specific data for Japan where Sony/Nintendo traditionally do a ton of business. I have friends there that get faster access to work servers at home than at work! I am not talking about US....

30XS955 User

· #20 · Jan 14, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm /forum/post/12805674

Hollywood wants to make money selling movies. But they don't build technology. It is up to companies like Sony, Apple, Microsoft, Comcast, etc. to do that....

Indeed, how correct you are; which is why companies like Sony, Toshiba, etc. will sell movie players to the broadest market available. Currently, all a person needs to play HD DVD or Blu ray is an HDTV, and purchasing movies is remarkably easy. How do you envision HD downloads, with all it's faults, competing with this tried and true business model?

1 - 20 of 37 Posts

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