[S_rangeBrew]

Considering 75"-80" LCDs are already there, I'm going to guess 3 years.

Personally, I can't wait for a 110" rolled up OLED that comes in a tube and I can put up on the wall with thumb tacks. I despise projectors and will be gleeful the day I can get rid of mine.

 

[swanlee]

3-4 years if the tech ramps up and lasts that long.

The bigger target is getting the 65 inch and below OLED's to under $3K which they need to get next year if they have any hope in competing and growing the OLED user base.

 

[wxman]

Depends if it becomes widely accepted or not. If it becomes widely accepted, I would say within 5 years. If not, it will remain an expensive niche market, or disappear completely like plasma. Just a gut feeling, but I think it will fade like plasma, which will be a shame. It took forever to get the top tier 60-65 inch plasmas to drop to $3000. Pioneer did because they went out of the tv business and sold them at a huge discount. While they were popular, you couldn't get an Elite for that price. The Panasonic ZT line for the 65 inch was not cheap until the stores cleared them out after Panasonic dropped Plasma. The Samsung 64F8500 was around $3000, and really only dropped after stores cleared them out. Of course the less than stellar rated plasmas did drop well below $2000.

 

[toddman36]

I would nt hold my breath! Put it that way! Oled is still in its infancy on the consumer market IMO...

 

[rogo]

Well, it's obviously not 2016 where we'll be lucky to see $15,000.

It certainly doesn't feel like 2017 where we'll be lucky to see $10,000.

It's pretty unlikely for 2018 where we'll be lucky to see $5,000.

It feels like 2019 is the earliest possible date for this even if you insert entirely different numbers above. ($12,000, $8,000, $4,500 for example.)

I wouldn't be at all surprised for it to take until 2020.

 

[KidHorn]

If it doesn't drop that low within the next couple of years, it will never happen. I would say LG has about a 1 year window to figure out how to make OLEDs for not much more than LCDs or they'll pull the plug. Not only will they not be able to sell their TVs, but the opportunity costs of not having a decent LCD will hurt them as well.

 

[Brahmzy]

You can't say 75-80. It's either or.
Sharp's cost to go from 70-80 is double. Pick one size to hypothesize about.
80" OLED is never going to be under $3K. Mark my words.

 

[Huzar]

Given the lack of competition, its a worrying sign that ill be some time.

 

[Cleveland Plasma]

5-6 years........

 

[kucharsk]

If it doesn't drop that low within the next couple of years, it will never happen. I would say LG has about a 1 year window to figure out how to make OLEDs for not much more than LCDs or they'll pull the plug. Not only will they not be able to sell their TVs, but the opportunity costs of not having a decent LCD will hurt them as well.

Not a problem; LG announcedLCDs for 2015 as well:

The lineup includes UF9500, UF9400, UF8500, UF7700, UF6800, and UF6700. The current UC9 and UB9800 models will also carry over into 2015, says LG. All of the Ultra HD TVs use IPS panels. The models will end on "V" in Europe; for example UF940V.

The two UF9500 and UF9400 are part of LG’s “ColorPrime” series, meaning that they can expand the color gamut to something close to DCI, which is used in movie theatres. UF9400 uses quantum dots to accomplish the task and UF9500 uses a phosphor technology - just like Panasonic.

http://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.php?subaction=showfull&id=1425635994

Here are the QD sets:

• LG 55UF9400
• LG 65UF9400

LG's certainly not putting all their eggs in the OLED basket.

 

[opus123]

3-4 years if the tech ramps up and lasts that long.

The bigger target is getting the 65 inch and below OLED's to under $3K which they need to get next year if they have any hope in competing and growing the OLED user base.

Agree 100%. To take advantage of their exclusivity and lead in OLED tech, it's in LG's best interest to provide smaller screen size units as cheaply as possible. If they can get penetration and raise awareness of OLED's superiority, they can steal sales from Samsung UHD and quantum dot, then more easily shift people toward larger more expensive screen sizes… before Samsung has a chance to compete. I think 65 OLED 1080p under $3k is doable in 2016.

I'd suggest LG sell the 55EC9300 near cost, to raise awareness and popularity. Each incremental step-up (4K, 60", 65", 70", etc) can have larger and larger margins. The distinct advantage OLED has over plasma is PQ in bright store settings, so I don't think OLED shares the same fate… but OLED & LG could seriously benefit from discounting their base offering.

Personally, I'll drop my 58" plasma once a 65 inch 4K OLED to comes to market at $2500, which i think we're 2+ years away from, but droves of people are perfectly content at 55 inches.

 

[Kaldaien]

I'd suggest LG sell the 55EC9300 near cost, to raise awareness and popularity. Each incremental step-up (4K, 60", 65", 70", etc) can have larger and larger margins. The distinct advantage OLED has over plasma is PQ in bright store settings, so I don't think OLED shares the same fate… but OLED & LG could seriously benefit from discounting their base offering.

Personally, I'll drop my 58" plasma once a 65 inch 4K OLED to comes to market at $2500, which i think we're 2+ years away from, but droves of people are perfectly content at 55 inches.

It does concern me what you just mentioned though... if OLEDs have to be bright in order to compete with LCD, then that suggests the crystal clear motion that's been a big selling point will never come to fruition. It really seems to me that given the current price of these things, they should cater to the dead plasma market at least initially. It's going to be videophiles who first adopt the technology, they don't care about a TV that gets 4x brighter than it needs to.

Get motion right first at the expense of brightness, and then gradually raise luminous efficiency, yield and lower manufacturing costs before trying to compete directly with LCD. That's how I would approach everything.

 

[turnne1]

It's going to be videophiles who first adopt the technology, they don't care about a TV that gets 4x brighter than it needs to.
.

Videophiles dont drive the Tv business though

Profit is king
Based on the failure of about every "videophile loved" television in the past several years...adoption by the videophile community is not keeping the lights on
If bright cheap LCD's are the cash cows I think they are....we can all guess what direction publicly traded companies are going in and will continue to
IMO..Tv's have become a commodity. They are seen as just about the same to the masses with little difference and no real reason to pay significantly more than a mid range product
Prices drop every year, for the most. Clearly some of this is technology but I would guess a lot of this is cost cutting and thinning profit margins for the manufacturers as well
No replacement parts are available for the most part. It seems they have decided its more cost effective to give you a new TV in many cases than try to have replacement parts available in warehouses...like they did 20 years ago when a TV was actually cost effective to fix in many cases

This coming from a person who has had 3 televisions replaced over the last 7 years due to what I would call minor issues

Warren

 

[westa6969]

Innovation, Competition, Global Economic Conditions and Profits drive the Industry. I agree with Chris at Cleveland 5-6 years if it even survives.

Just think what happened to Sharp investing five billion dollars to build a state of the art 10G LCD/Solar Plant to manufacturer monster panels and prices dropped to equal losses and sent them a hair within bankruptcy and they had to convert their other plants from TV's to portable devices where they make more Profit as they provide Apple glass for their devices and partnered within Foxconn.

I believe LG would abandon OLED before they'd ever sell that size for $3K - have you ever noticed that Sony, Samsung with every passing year teases consumer with just enough features to keep flagship pricing at a standard range that never gets down to that $3K region for Flagship products. The stepchild average panels drop but the flagships remain year after year until they are being cleared for next gen with a teaser to keep it's price standard, it's no accident.

What's troubling is Samsung actually increasing the price for their flagships YOY for QDot which actually is designed to save them costs but they have such huge market share that they seem to think they can get $10K> for a 78" and that price scenario is not likely to last as they'll never garner volume sales on those as there are only so many STUPID Rich People that Sprint depicts.

Don't hold your breath for a monster size OLED to drop to $3K anytime soon when Samsung is asking about $13K UPP for their 78" QDot SUHD.

On second thought, the only way I see a drop to OP levels is if China reverse engineers/pirates and produces it with it's Communist Slave Labor - Yes then we could have them if China replicates it in the marketplace having the R&D subsidized by others upfront.

 

[OneStepAhead]

Considering 75"-80" LCDs are already there, I'm going to guess 3 years.

Personally, I can't wait for a 110" rolled up OLED that comes in a tube and I can put up on the wall with thumb tacks. I despise projectors and will be gleeful the day I can get rid of mine.

75-80 OLED below 3k? Id say never. You can't even get a quality LCD in that size under 3k. Id say maybe 10 years from now you could potentially see it, but even then unlikely. I think 8000 will be the lowest in the next 5 years.

 

[x3sphere]

75-80 OLED below 3k? Id say never. You can't even get a quality LCD in that size under 3k. Id say maybe 10 years from now you could potentially see it, but even then unlikely. I think 8000 will be the lowest in the next 5 years.

If OLED survives over the next 5 years I think it is definitely possible. OLED with high yields should actually be cheaper than LCD to manufacture, and LG has said this themselves a few times.

What I'm not sure of though is if TV sizes 75" and above will ever go mainstream. A lot of people don't have room for such a big TV. Less demand for these sizes will keep prices high relative to 55"/65".

 

[OneStepAhead]

If OLED survives over the next 5 years I think it is definitely possible. OLED with high yields should actually be cheaper than LCD to manufacture, and LG has said this themselves a few times.

What I'm not sure of though is if TV sizes 75" and above will ever go mainstream. A lot of people don't have room for such a big TV. Less demand for these sizes will keep prices high relative to 55"/65".

I think most homes can accommodate a 75" TV in the living room without issue. It's just a question of if they want a TV that large or if they can afford it. Heck, I have a friend that has an 80" TV in his 600sq ft apartment.

There was a time when I thought 55" was way to large for my living room. Then I got a 65". Now even the 65" is too small. I'm looking to go 85" this time around!

 

[x3sphere]

As HT enthusiasts I feel we always will find a way to go bigger if it's within budget But yeah, most homes can. I was thinking more small apartments. It's just hard to see 75" selling the same way 55" does now even if it was priced similar, but we'll see.

 

[remush]

Hopefully by the time this comes out

http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/netflix-our-planet-documentary-series-1201472761/

 

[triumph66]

A 4K 75-80" OLED under $3k? Maybe in 2020 if the tech survives.