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Question for Robert of Value Electronics

11508 Views 131 Replies 58 Participants Last post by markrubin, Jan 23, 2008

mw390

Discussion Starter · Jan 20, 2008

Hi,

I check this and other websites daily and during the whole CES debacle I didn't notice any postings from you. My question basically is...what did you hear or learn from Toshiba, the studios, your "Deep Throat" if you have one. Just what is going on? Is Toshiba really committed to pressing on, why haven't the studios been releasing more titles (Star Trek, etc). Sony's been pushing any old crap out ("Good Luck Chuck"). And as for standalones, did the BDs outpace the HDs during December. Alot to answer. Thanks in advance.

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1 - 20 of 132 Posts

DTV TiVo Dealer

· #2 · Jan 20, 2008

Toshiba was as shocked as anyone to hear about Warner's decision so it took them by surprise.

Their exhibit showed two new HD DVD applications, chat between two networked HD DVD players and animation figures that were singing and playing musical instruments in exact sync to a HD DVD disc playing Jazz music. Both looked very cool.

Mark Knox and several other HD DVD product managers and specialists supported the booth floor duty to answer questions and participate in demonstrations that ran all day long throughout the show. Jodi Sally spent a lot of time in dealer meetings and on the floor doing press interviews. I spent some time with Jodi and Toshiba's senior management and staff. The mood was surprisingly up beat and they all assured me that they are committed to the format and were working closely with the other HD DVD partners to build the format.

No one was trying to fool themselves or me as they all clearly admitted this was a big blow to HD DVD, but they were staying the course and would put every effort to continue to win the format dispute.

I was told they would likely have a price adjustment to keep player sales strong and would be actively negotiating with the software suppliers to release more catalog titles. I can't say what all of their plans are as they are rapidly being developed so plans can and do change quickly.

Title releases take quite a bit of time to come to market as contracts and mastering and final replication is a slow process. So don't expect to see many unexpected new titles for a few months.

4th gen players were never planned for CES, but more firmware upgrades are planned. The next gen players are expected in Q3 '08.

Personally and professionally I am saddened by Warner's decision as I believe this decision may actually lead to the demise of both HD optical formats. Here's why. BD hardware and software is expensive and now with less competition I do not expect to see the prices being forced to drop as quickly. So the average consumer is not going to be compelled to buy into a high priced device and high priced software. To me Warner made a bad decision that was very short sited.

HD DVD has always enjoyed a big hardware and software price advantage and was pushing BD to improve their product features, reliability and hopefully bring their prices in line. Sorry to see this turn out this way as I think no one will be a winner in the end.

The next frontier is Hollywood movies on flash memory cards and or download HD content.

-Robert

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Customgamer1

· #3 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by DTV TiVo Dealer /forum/post/12872104

Toshiba was as shocked as anyone to hear about Warner's decision so it took them by surprise.

Their exhibit showed two new HD DVD applications, chat between two networked HD DVD players and animation figures that were singing and playing musical instruments in exact sync to a HD DVD disc playing Jazz music. Both looked very cool.

Mark Knox and several other HD DVD product managers and specialists supported the booth floor duty to answer questions and participate in demonstrations that ran all day long throughout the show. Jodi Sally spent a lot of time in dealer meetings and on the floor doing press interviews. I spent some time with Jodi and Toshiba's senior management and staff. The mood was surprisingly up beat and they all assured me that they are committed to the format and were working closely with the other HD DVD partners to build the format.

No one was trying to fool themselves or me as they all clearly admitted this was a big blow to HD DVD, but they were staying the course and would put every effort to continue to win the format dispute.

I was told they would likely have a price adjustment to keep player sales strong and would be actively negotiating with the software suppliers to release more catalog titles. I can't say what all of their plans are as they are rapidly being developed so plans can and do change quickly.

Title releases take quite a bit of time to come to market as contracts and mastering and final replication is a slow process. So don't expect to see many unexpected new titles for a few months.

4th gen players were never planned for CES, but more firmware upgrades are planned. The next gen players are expected in Q3 '08.

Personally and professionally I am saddened by Warner's decision as I believe this decision may actually lead to the demise of both HD optical formats. Here's why. BD hardware and software is expensive and now with less competition I do not expect to see the prices being forced to drop as quickly. So the average consumer is not going to be compelled to buy into a high priced device and high priced software. To me Warner made a bad decision that was very short sited.

HD DVD has always enjoyed a big hardware and software price advantage and was pushing BD to improve their product features, reliability and hopefully bring their prices in line. Sorry to see this turn out this way as I think no one will be a winner in the end.

The next frontier is Hollywood movies on flash memory cards and or download HD content.

-Robert

Yep I agree! Sony and the BDA will keep prices as high as possible because they can. I really hope the Toshiba low price com back can do something to increase sales!

dazed_n_confuzed

· #4 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by DTV TiVo Dealer /forum/post/12872104

Toshiba was as shocked as anyone to hear about Warner's decision so it took them by surprise.....HD DVD has always enjoyed a big hardware and software price advantage and was pushing BD to improve their product features, reliability and hopefully bring their prices in line. Sorry to see this turn out this way as I think no one will be a winner in the end.

The next frontier is Hollywood movies on flash memory cards and or download HD content.

-Robert

Robert,

I am continually impressed at your approach in dealing with everyone here at AVS. Your insight and professionalism are top notch. I to believe that if HD-DVD is slowing going the way of the dinosaur the Blu-ray camp will not have any incentive in reducing their pricing structure or even improving their players and features. I sure hope that the tide will turn and HD-DVD will still be a viable and prosperous format for which will help US (the consumer) in the long run all the way around.

Thanks again Robert.

dazed

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Tim Glover

· #5 · Jan 20, 2008

Robert's a good guy.

tripleM

· #6 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Glover /forum/post/12872691

Robert's a good guy.

OBVIOUS STATEMENT...BUT STILL TRUE

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nineteen70

· #7 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by DTV TiVo Dealer /forum/post/12872104

Toshiba was as shocked as anyone to hear about Warner's decision so it took them by surprise.

Their exhibit showed two new HD DVD applications, chat between two networked HD DVD players and animation figures that were singing and playing musical instruments in exact sync to a HD DVD disc playing Jazz music. Both looked very cool.

Mark Knox and several other HD DVD product managers and specialists supported the booth floor duty to answer questions and participate in demonstrations that ran all day long throughout the show. Jodi Sally spent a lot of time in dealer meetings and on the floor doing press interviews. I spent some time with Jodi and Toshiba's senior management and staff. The mood was surprisingly up beat and they all assured me that they are committed to the format and were working closely with the other HD DVD partners to build the format.

No one was trying to fool themselves or me as they all clearly admitted this was a big blow to HD DVD, but they were staying the course and would put every effort to continue to win the format dispute.

I was told they would likely have a price adjustment to keep player sales strong and would be actively negotiating with the software suppliers to release more catalog titles. I can't say what all of their plans are as they are rapidly being developed so plans can and do change quickly.

Title releases take quite a bit of time to come to market as contracts and mastering and final replication is a slow process. So don't expect to see many unexpected new titles for a few months.

4th gen players were never planned for CES, but more firmware upgrades are planned. The next gen players are expected in Q3 '08.

Personally and professionally I am saddened by Warner's decision as I believe this decision may actually lead to the demise of both HD optical formats. Here's why. BD hardware and software is expensive and now with less competition I do not expect to see the prices being forced to drop as quickly. So the average consumer is not going to be compelled to buy into a high priced device and high priced software. To me Warner made a bad decision that was very short sited.

HD DVD has always enjoyed a big hardware and software price advantage and was pushing BD to improve their product features, reliability and hopefully bring their prices in line. Sorry to see this turn out this way as I think no one will be a winner in the end.

The next frontier is Hollywood movies on flash memory cards and or download HD content.

-Robert

thanks for the info.I to hope HD can stay a while

rveras

· #8 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by DTV TiVo Dealer /forum/post/12872104

Toshiba was as shocked as anyone to hear about Warner's decision so it took them by surprise.

Their exhibit showed two new HD DVD applications, chat between two networked HD DVD players and animation figures that were singing and playing musical instruments in exact sync to a HD DVD disc playing Jazz music. Both looked very cool.

Mark Knox and several other HD DVD product managers and specialists supported the booth floor duty to answer questions and participate in demonstrations that ran all day long throughout the show. Jodi Sally spent a lot of time in dealer meetings and on the floor doing press interviews. I spent some time with Jodi and Toshiba's senior management and staff. The mood was surprisingly up beat and they all assured me that they are committed to the format and were working closely with the other HD DVD partners to build the format.

No one was trying to fool themselves or me as they all clearly admitted this was a big blow to HD DVD, but they were staying the course and would put every effort to continue to win the format dispute.

I was told they would likely have a price adjustment to keep player sales strong and would be actively negotiating with the software suppliers to release more catalog titles. I can't say what all of their plans are as they are rapidly being developed so plans can and do change quickly.

Title releases take quite a bit of time to come to market as contracts and mastering and final replication is a slow process. So don't expect to see many unexpected new titles for a few months.

4th gen players were never planned for CES, but more firmware upgrades are planned. The next gen players are expected in Q3 '08.

Personally and professionally I am saddened by Warner's decision as I believe this decision may actually lead to the demise of both HD optical formats. Here's why. BD hardware and software is expensive and now with less competition I do not expect to see the prices being forced to drop as quickly. So the average consumer is not going to be compelled to buy into a high priced device and high priced software. To me Warner made a bad decision that was very short sited.

HD DVD has always enjoyed a big hardware and software price advantage and was pushing BD to improve their product features, reliability and hopefully bring their prices in line. Sorry to see this turn out this way as I think no one will be a winner in the end.

The next frontier is Hollywood movies on flash memory cards and or download HD content.

-Robert

Hardware yes and only because of Blu-ray existed. When the A2 was released the MSRP was $499.99. The price was then set to $300 later on just to keep competing with Blu-ray. I personally believe that if Blu-ray never existed the HD-DVD players would have cost about the same as the Blu-ray players right now. Second software replication was cheaper but prices at the store were the same as Blu-ray discs so for the consumer HD-DVD didn't have any software price advantage over Blu-ray.

The only reason I think HD-DVD lost was because the BDA did a better job at marketing and also Disney/Fox released more blockbuster movies towards the end. If it wasn't for the commiment of Disney/Fox Blu-ray would have been dead by now I think.

tripleM

· #9 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by rveras /forum/post/12872771

Hardware yes and only because of Blu-ray existed. When the A2 was released the MSRP was $499.99. The price was then set to $300 later on just to keep competing with Blu-ray. I personally believe that if

Blu-ray never existed the HD-DVD player would cost about the same as the Blu-ray players right now. Second software replication was cheaper but prices at the store were the same as Blu-ray discs so for the consumer HD-DVD didn't have any software price advantage over Blu-ray.

Isn't HD cheaper to produce?

Desert Heat

· #10 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by DTV TiVo Dealer /forum/post/12872104

Toshiba was as shocked as anyone to hear about Warner's decision so it took them by surprise.

Their exhibit showed two new HD DVD applications, chat between two networked HD DVD players and animation figures that were singing and playing musical instruments in exact sync to a HD DVD disc playing Jazz music. Both looked very cool.

Mark Knox and several other HD DVD product managers and specialists supported the booth floor duty to answer questions and participate in demonstrations that ran all day long throughout the show. Jodi Sally spent a lot of time in dealer meetings and on the floor doing press interviews. I spent some time with Jodi and Toshiba's senior management and staff. The mood was surprisingly up beat and they all assured me that they are committed to the format and were working closely with the other HD DVD partners to build the format.

No one was trying to fool themselves or me as they all clearly admitted this was a big blow to HD DVD, but they were staying the course and would put every effort to continue to win the format dispute.

I was told they would likely have a price adjustment to keep player sales strong and would be actively negotiating with the software suppliers to release more catalog titles. I can't say what all of their plans are as they are rapidly being developed so plans can and do change quickly.

Title releases take quite a bit of time to come to market as contracts and mastering and final replication is a slow process. So don't expect to see many unexpected new titles for a few months.

4th gen players were never planned for CES, but more firmware upgrades are planned. The next gen players are expected in Q3 '08.

Personally and professionally I am saddened by Warner's decision as I believe this decision may actually lead to the demise of both HD optical formats. Here's why. BD hardware and software is expensive and now with less competition I do not expect to see the prices being forced to drop as quickly. So the average consumer is not going to be compelled to buy into a high priced device and high priced software. To me Warner made a bad decision that was very short sited.

HD DVD has always enjoyed a big hardware and software price advantage and was pushing BD to improve their product features, reliability and hopefully bring their prices in line. Sorry to see this turn out this way as I think no one will be a winner in the end.

The next frontier is Hollywood movies on flash memory cards and or download HD content.

-Robert

Thanks for this insight Robert, I enjoy reading your posts. My question to you is why do you think Toshiba has not utilized a strategy of fighting back. They seem to generally have a good stragety of getting harware out to the market and so forth but the difference is Sony is taking the fight direct to the format, i.e. 11th hour warner defection with pre-ces anouncement, ps3, etc. Why doesn't toshiba employ similar tactics? Are they just too nice??...... or simply do not have enough ammunition? Seems like the one card they have they do not play. They could have used the combo format as a trogen horse to line up a user base of millions upon millions while they continue to lower the price of hardware and putting boxes in the same homes that are buying the combos.....for the life of me I cannot understand why this was not done early in the format war. If studio reluctance was to blame, they could have been more pursuasve to the tune of whatever amount of $ would make the studio listen and try it for a year or even 6 months. If I'm Toshiba I don't let my target studio out of the meeting room until he/she aggrees to try this approach for some amount of time.......things sure could have turned out differently

.

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estoyloco

· #11 · Jan 20, 2008

Just to quote what you just said. Your argument is somewhat flawed. From launch as I recall Toshiba was the only one on the market with BD not released. They had their A1 priced at $500. Now when BD came to market their players were $1000.

And for the most part Toshiba has always kept this half price difference for their most affordable HD DVD player model. I don't know about you but I definitely see $500 as being more affordable and capable than a $1000 player for the general public.

So yes if BD never came to light, Toshiba could have price fixed the player prices higher for longer. But isn't this exactly what we are saying about BD prices staying stagnant now? Because if there is no competition, no incentive in the HD market against BD, Sony & CE companies can price fix. Actually if you look at the new models coming up for BD players they show no sign of reduced pricing rather its the opposite.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rveras /forum/post/12872771

Hardware yes and only because of Blu-ray existed. When the A2 was released the MSRP was $499.99. The price was then set to $300 later on just to keep competing with Blu-ray. I personally believe that if Blu-ray never existed the HD-DVD players would have cost about the same as the Blu-ray players right now. Second software replication was cheaper but prices at the store were the same as Blu-ray discs so for the consumer HD-DVD didn't have any software price advantage over Blu-ray.

The only reason I think HD-DVD lost was because the BDA did a better job at marketing and also Disney/Fox released more blockbuster movies towards the end. If it wasn't for the commiment of Disney/Fox Blu-ray would have been dead by now I think.

estoyloco

· #12 · Jan 20, 2008

Toshiba could have easily won this format war. But one thing and one thing alone probably stopped them. Greed.

There was no incentive to drop prices drastically when each sale could generate higher profits that was the same as the competitor. Toshiba I believe was also thinking in the short term and did not plan the longer term, thus jeopardizing their long term profits.

They could have easily made DVD/HD DVD combo disc's at the prices of regulard HD DVD. Rather they chose to charge a premium.

They could have easily made DVD/HD DVD combo format the standard, ensuring that any new movie coming out could possible come out only in this format.

If a DVD/HD DVD format was the only choice for a movie, and it worked on your regular DVD player. Don't you think the general public would still buy it if they wanted that movie, even if the price was a little higher than regular DVD?

All Toshiba had to do was put a 1 page flyer in the case, highlighting the advantage of buying a HD DVD player in DVD/HD DVD combo case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Desert Heat /forum/post/12872857

Thanks for this insight Robert, I enjoy reading your posts. My question to you is why do you think Toshiba has not utilized a strategy of fighting back. They seem to generally have a good stragety of getting harware out to the market and so forth but the difference is Sony is taking the fight direct to the format, i.e. 11th hour warner defection with pre-ces anouncement, ps3, etc. Why doesn't toshiba employ similar tactics? Are they just too nice??...... or simply do not have enough ammunition? Seems like the one card they have they do not play. They could have used the combo format as a trogen horse to line up a user base of millions upon millions while they continue to lower the price of hardware and putting boxes in the same homes that are buying the combos.....for the life of me I cannot understand why this was not done early in the format war. If studio reluctance was to blame, they could have been more pursuasve to the tune of whatever amount of $ would make the studio listen and try it for a year or even 6 months. If I'm Toshiba I don't let my target studio out of the meeting room until he/she aggrees to try this approach for some amount of time.......things sure could have turned out differently

.

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mw390

Discussion Starter · #13 · Jan 20, 2008

Thanks very much Robert. A very well thought out answer and probably more grounded in reality than most of the posts in this forum

crassp

· #14 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by estoyloco /forum/post/12874340

There was no incentive to drop prices drastically when each sale could generate higher profits that was the same as the competitor.

I think that nowadays all exclusivity support are paid under contract; Sony paid more for exclusivity support than Toshiba.

I don't know if was an option from Toshiba or not; this money could be used to subsidie players than exclusive support; seens they have no interest to invest in both.

bjmarchini

· #15 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by rveras /forum/post/12872771

Hardware yes and only because of Blu-ray existed. When the A2 was released the MSRP was $499.99. The price was then set to $300 later on just to keep competing with Blu-ray. I personally believe that if Blu-ray never existed the HD-DVD players would have cost about the same as the Blu-ray players right now. Second software replication was cheaper but prices at the store were the same as Blu-ray discs so for the consumer HD-DVD didn't have any software price advantage over Blu-ray.

The only reason I think HD-DVD lost was because the BDA did a better job at marketing and also Disney/Fox released more blockbuster movies towards the end. If it wasn't for the commiment of Disney/Fox Blu-ray would have been dead by now I think.

I agree about the Disney issue. If you have done alot of reading on the subject, this is apparrently what swung Warner

HD DVD player sales spiked in November with the price drops from Toshiba through their retailers. Because of this growth in an HD DVD base, Fox studios began considering offering their content on HD DVD like Warner. The Bluray group tried to keep Fox inline with being BluRay exclusive. In order to keep Fox, BluRay made a drastic move and offered Fox 130 million to stay wih Bluray and $400-500 million for switching o BluRay only. Supposedly, Fox would have switched if Warner had stayed neutral.

I get tired of people saying that Sony is willing to do anything to win the format war. If they were will to do anything, they would drop a dedicated BR player to below $200 like Toshiba.

Of course the biggest loser in all of this was the consumer. When you think about it, all these payoffs to studios over the last two years could have been used to lower the price of BR and HD DVD players. Think about it. 1,000,000 / 4 million player = $250 less per player.

Or think of it this way. The BR group could have used that 650 to cut prices on BR player around $400 to $199 for about 600 million and moved 3 million more players. I think a bluray player at $199 would sell out quickly. With 3 million more units in homes, it would demand studio attention and they could have won the war. Toshiba could (and seems) to be trying this strategy. Unfortunately, I believe it is too late. I think the mistake they made was moving HD-A3 prices back up to $299 after the crazy november specials. If they kept them at $149 during the holiday season, I think things would be drastically different now. Great Idea Toshiba, lets drop the prices now when every is busy paying of christmas credit card bills and the government is warning of recession.

I agree with Robert. I think streaming media will take the place of HDM in the mainstream. I hear people gripe about bandwidth not being able to support it. Most cable companies that I have seen already can with their own services with HD movies on demand. The other people forget is that the large majority of HD displays out there are either 1080i or 720 and not 1080p. I have seen that one service is now being to offer stream HD.... at 720p. It is all about perception in the end and less about solid knowledge of technology.

I have a 92" screen and could notice the difference. How many folks with a 32-37" widescreen are gonna notice that much of a difference between 720p and 1080p. .... not many. Heck most people have convinced themself that 1080p HDM is not all that better than 480p DVDs.

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ilovenola2

· #16 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by mw390 /forum/post/12874366

Thanks very much Robert. A very well thought out answer and probably more grounded in reality than most of the posts in this forum

Agreed! Yes, thanks, Robert, for your continued insight.

cdzie1

· #17 · Jan 20, 2008

Thanks Robert! If HD DVD makes it to 3rd quarter, but me down for one of those 4th generation players!

Maybe Microsoft will really throw their weight behind HD DVD and knock another $20 off the Xbox HD DVD drive by then…. sigh….

quikric

· #18 · Jan 20, 2008

2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Glover /forum/post/12872691

Robert's a good guy.

+ A BIG 1!!

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GmanAVS

· #19 · Jan 20, 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Glover /forum/post/12872691

Robert's a good guy.

Yes he is. +1

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Stitchesman

· #20 · Jan 20, 2008

Thanks Robert! Great post.

I hope HD-DVD can hang around long enough to produce a 4th generation player. I'm curious to see what improvements, advancements, and innovations they can make.

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